*ANALYSIS OF THE NIGERIAN 2019 PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION*- - - *TENTATIVELY OPINED BY A CRITICAL ANALYST*

It is obvious that the general election of the Nigerian presidential post is far approaching as different Nigerian political parties have started their logical campaigns.
As it is in Nigeria political game, there are various popular and reliable politicians of whom belongs to different political registered parties such as the former vice-President Atiku, former Kano governor: Rabiu Kwankwaso, the incumbent governor of kaduna state: Nasir El-Rufai, the incumbent Governor of Sokoto: Aminu Tambuwal, the current vice-president of Nigeria: Yemi Osinbajo and the sitting governor of Ekiti state: Ayodele fayose. All these renowned Nigerian politicians have one way or the other showed their interests in becoming the next president.
Following the what the President Buhari said that he won't be contesting in 2019, many government officials, analysts, activists and so on from different political parties have expressed their opinions to the support of those listed above among them is minister for women affairs: Al-hassan who said if Buhari is not contesting in 2019 then she would truthfully support her godfather Atiku.

However, it is unsubtle that the winning party is APC which gives any member of the party an edge to win the election comes 2019.
Also, for the present chairman of all world ex-presidents: Olusegun Obasanjo has once said that Atiku will never become the president of Nigeria in his lifetime which is equal to a threat to Atiku presidential political ambition.
Thus, the analysis goes like this:
*Proposed presidential candidates and the political parties they will run under*

*Atiku* : This man's ambition of becoming president of Nigeria is highly drastic. He was among those that ran for APC 2015 presidential primary election and lost to president Buhari. He also has been seen to counter the buhari and APC led government despite the fact that he is fictionally belongs to APC. However, the probability that he would be given presidential ticket under the platform of PDP is 65/100. Without him for PDP now, I see PDP no where in 2019. Atiku can really help PDP to regain power.

*Ayodele Fayose*: This south-west PDP Jagaban was seen in the last PDP convention campaigning along side with his loyalists to be given presidential ticket under the platform of PDP. Logically, this man knows deep down in his heart that he can't be given that ticket now but there is high probability that he want to aspire for the post of vice president under PDP. Statistically, majority of people that resides in the south-south and south-east geo-political zones belongs to PDP which simply means that PDP will need people from the North and West to run as President and vice president consecutively for them to regain power. This analysis surely gives Fayose 55/100 to be the PDP vice presidential candidate come 2019.

*Yemi Osinbajo*: Some people would be surprised why this man is on the list. Well, if you are very updated you will know that Osinbajo has done a lot to Nigeria and to Buhari himself to deserve the endorsement of APC and buhari as their presidential candidate. Research also revealed that Osibanjo has been given different chieftancy titles in the southern parts of Nigeria and has also really worked hard to win the hearts of the Northern people. Also, obviously Prof. Osinbajo is from the western part of Nigeria and those from their would certainly endorse him. He has 50% of being chosen as APC presidential candidate.

*Tambuwal, Nasir El-Rufai and Rabiu Kwankwaso*: Certainly, one of these APC members would be given ticket of either presidency or vice presidency. This is due to their consistent aspirations for the post and also their stand politically and where they are from. Also, Obasanjo has been rumoured to endorse kwankwaso or Nasir El-Rufai for the presidential post last week to contest against Atiku.

*Analysis based on political parties and population*

Tentatively, if PDP should contest against the ruling party, APC in 2019, they would be outvoted. The reason to this hypothetical statement is this:
1. Out of the 36 states in Nigeria, PDP only occupies 11, 24 is being ruled by APC governors while the remaining 1 belongs to APGA. Then, if APC governors can manage to deliver extreme votes in their respective states, PDP would be outvoted.
2. Out of all the six geo-political zones in Nigeria, the most populated one with about *#35,804,550* is North-West which all the states under it belongs to APC. Beside, Buhari, Kwankwaso, Tambuwal and El-Rufai dominates North-West.
3. In the South-West, PDP can only deliver Ekiti which total number of people that resides there is times 4 those that resides only in Lagos which is about 99% controlled by APC. All other states in the Yoruba land are being controlled by APC but APC might not be able to deliver very well in Oyo and Osun due to issues the states governors had with their people.
4. PDP major strength is from south-south and south-east. Imo which has about *3,934,899* people residing there can be destructive to PDP ambition because of governor Okorocha who is a strong APC member and the former special adviser to former president Obasanjo on political affairs. Also, in Edo state which is controlled by APC can be an exception from PDP surest states. Not the less, PDP will deliver those geo-political zones very well.
6. Sentiment apart, total number of people in south-south, south-east, Ekiti state and kogi state as controlled by PDP is *43,059,083* which is not up to the total number of people that resides in the North-West and Lagos which is *44,818,084* let alone other geo-political zones and states strongly controlled by APC.

*Analysis based on the geo-political zones and states of the proposed candidates*

*Atiku/Fayose*: This political godfather is from Adamawa in the North East. If he is eventually chosen by PDP, there is high probability that he will deliver North East due to his foundations, philanthropic practices that he has rendered to the zone. However, his stand might be countered by the incumbent Governor of Adamawa state from APC and who is a loyalist to Buhari and some APC national and state leaders. Also, some other APC states governors in the North East might go against his political ambition. Fayose, who is popularly known as the friend of the masses in his state can definitely deliver Ekiti state to favour PDP. Also, for the mentality of being a well known media personality, he might be favored by the votes of his supporters from other states in the South West. In the south south and South East, there is high probability that PDP will win the People's votes there.

*Yemi Osinbajo/Kwankwaso,El Rufai and Tambuwal*
Osinbajo who is from south west in Ogun state and who is the current vice president of Nigeria has been noticed to probably have 80% votes of people in the south west, about 55% votes of all Nigerian Christians, 65% votes of all Northerners (if endorsed by Buhari and Northern APC Governors), 30% votes of all south easterners and 15% votes of south south people. Any of Kwankwaso, El Rufai or Tambuwal can indisputably deliver North for APC if they are being given sense of belonging (especially Kwanwaso who has been rumoured to decamp to PDP in search of presidential ticket).

Conclusively, if truly PDP members are really ready to regain power from the ruling party APC, then they must really work harder while if APC is not really ready to lose to PDP then they need to maintain their stand throughout Nigeria politically, economically, friendly, managerially, potently and judiciously.

Opined by:
*Adeleke Azeez Olalekan* (B. Tech(Edu) in view Futminna).
(Critical thinker, political analyst, Educator and a potent Nigerian psychologist)