Ndigbo, Biafra, and 2019


I saw a post on the wall of one of the older generation diasporan Nigerians who goaded some misguided Igbo Youths into making series of hate speeches. She posited that the Igbos will deal with APC in the 2019 General election; that not one vote will the ruling party get.

I noticed most of the comments on the thread were in agreement with her. These misguided adults also listed the Yorubas as enemies for not supporting the Biafrans in their quest for self-determination or tow their line of reasoning.

The idea that the votes from Southeast can prevent a Hausa man or Yoruba man or any other tribe from becoming President of Nigeria is nothing more than wishful thinking. It is laughable considering the humbling lessons of 2015 elections outcome. The earlier Igbos wake up to the reality on the ground the better.

Elections are not won by mere rhetorics or propaganda. To achieve victory, you will have to build coalitions across other regions. You have to create alliances with individuals, groups, and even religious organisations. You cannot achieve this by intimidating other or isolating your tribe.
Just like you lost the IPOB battle without a strategy, you will lose again if you think you don't need other tribes to achieve your goals.

A master strategist like Asiwaju Bola Tinubu realised the importance of alignment if ever the Southwest is going to be relevant in national politics. Not many saw the possibility of the Southwest playing an active role in the centre. It would take Tinubu several trips from Lagos to Kaduna, Sokoto, Kano, Katsina, Abuja and even Maiduguri at the height of the Boko Haram menace.

I will break it down why the Igbos can NEVER do it alone. Let us play it by the numbers here.
The total number of INEC's registered voters in the entire southeast state is 7,028,560. Anambra having the highest figure of 1,758,280, and Ebonyi state having the lowest figure of 876,249.
SouthSouth region having 8,937,057. Former president Goodluck Ebele Jonathan home state of Bayelsa having the lowest number of registered voters in the country with 472,389, Rivers state having the highest number of 2,419,057 and my home state of Delta having 1,900,055. So the total number of registered voters in the whole of Southeast and Southsouth is 15,965,617.
The total number of registered voters in Northwest region is 18,900,543. North Central has 7,675,369. And NorthEast recording 10,038,119. This gives the three Northern regions a combined registered voters figure of 36,614,031. The combined number of registered voters of Southeast and Southsouth is not even up to President Buhari's stronghold of the Northwest region of the country.
The calculation above does not include the Southwest region with 14,298,356. Lagos having the highest registered voters in the country with 6,247,854.

For the Igbos to be more relevant in the political sphere, they will need to jettison the victim mentality of 'everyone hate the Igbos' and build alliances across other regions.
Politics is not just a game of numbers, it's also about strength and goodwill. It's about what you have, what you bring to the negotiation table. Divisiveness and arrogance will not earn you trust among your allies.
Aside the monumental corruption under the Goodluck Jonathan's administration, one of the many reasons he was defeated in the last presidential election as a sitting president was because he could not reign in the Ex Niger-Delta militant's tumultuous noise all over the country during his time. The threat and hate speeches from the likes of Asari Dokubo and his minions culminated in his loss.

This brings me to the big lesson I learnt in season 5 of the series Game Of Thrones. A bastard child, Jon Snow was chosen by Providence to become the Lord Commander of the Night Watch. He realised he had an inadequate number of fighters to defend Castle Black from the White Walkers attack. To strengthen his force, he sailed all the way to form all alliance with his enemies who had just massacred 50 of his men. He knew he would need the strength and capacity of the Wildlings to fight a bigger, common enemy in the White Walkers.

The earlier the Igbos understand the need for an alliance, the better for them. You cannot aim to dine with other people if you continue to threaten them and destroy the bond of trust needed to forge a formidable partnership. To make progress, we need other like minds. We need the goodwill of our neighbours and the trust of our associates.
It is time to build bridges and erect pillars of trust. It is time to embrace love and togetherness and stop acting like a tree can
make a forest.

I will conclude here with a verse from the Holy Book, the book of Ecclesiastes 10:10 which says that “wisdom is profitable to direct.”.

Ken Eneduwa-George writes from Abuja

Cc. Mynd44

Article 134 (2) of the Nigerian Constitution stipulates that a presidential candidate will be duly elected after attaining both the highest number of votes cast, and having received at least a quarter of the votes at each of at least two-thirds of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). If no candidate satisfies the requirement, a second election will be held between the two leading candidates within seven days from the pronouncement of the result.

What am pointing at is even if all northern states(19) completely vote for buhari he needs atleast (25%) southern states votes to lawfully win. Southeastern vote is as important as any other region in southern nigeria, southerners would only vote for buhari if they geniunely feel he as delevered on anticorruption drive, diversification of economy, power and secuirity
Yes i do agree igbos need to build better politcal
alliance. I disagree that their vote dont count .buharis 2015 win isnt all that easy he won because he had southwestern aliance, through people like tinubu and obasanjo.. and northern heavyweight choose not to leave apc after lossing the party primaries.. 2015 statistics shows that buhari and his team actually must deliver on there promises to win 2019

you have a point.

If the South west is in support then the vote of SE is inconsequential, look at the last presidential vote. SE gave PMB almost nothing.

The repeat of 2015 election pattern is gradually taking shape with this attitude again