The plot is thickening and the drama is expanding. Nobody knows how the drama will end. Will it be a tragic-comedy or will it be an outright tragedy for this great nation?

That President Umaru Yar’Adua, after spending 93 days in the King Faisal Hospital in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, has now spent another 28 days in Nigeria without any Nigerian, including the Acting President, setting eyes on him. It took a boisterous Hajia Dada Yar’Adua (President’s mother) two well fought battles to set her eyes on her son at the risk of being thrown overboard by Turai’s military loyalists.

It is a well established fact that Nigeria is presently being run by two presidents – one comatose and unconscious, through his wife; and an Ag President Goodluck Jonathan.

The erstwhile Federal Executive Council could not boast of a two-thirds majority to declare her husband incapable of discharging the functions of his office. Turai also knows that Jonathan may not get the National Assembly and their party’s approval to replace about 20 pro-Yar’Adua ministers out of the regular 42-member cabinet. Section 144 subsection I-III of the Constitution places the responsibility to replace the President or Vice-President squarely on the shoulders of the Federal Executive Council. The alternative to Federal Executive Council’s dithering is the impeachment process, which, to Turai’s relief, is so cumbersome and almost impracticable with the present alignment at the National Assembly.

Impeachment proceedings, officially, should not exceed about 140 days, including three months given to the seven- member panel to submit its report; but because of political manipulations and bureaucratic tinkering, such a highly politicised case as President Yar’Adua’s can even exceed 366 days. Section 143 of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria spells out how a president or vice-president can be impeached.

Turai seems to have calculated Jonathan’s days on the throne. They are about 440 days ending on May 28, 2011. She knows that Jonathan will not achieve anything from a prolonged impeachment bickering that could drag on for up to one year.

Turai is clever. She has weighed all the options with inputs probably coming from university professors and other professionals. But Turai and her camp have not considered the power of the people. All over the world, when the three tiers of government fail, it is the people who come to the street to express popular will to effect a change of heart of government or government officials. These are daily occurrences all over the world, except in Nigeria.
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