There appears to be no end in sight for the Nigeria’s electricity crisis as a system adequacy report submitted by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has indicated that Nigeria would continue to suffer from severe grid electricity shortage in the next 10 years.

The report said this would happen because under the most optimistic assumptions of high technical availability, high rainfalls, and low demand growth, energy deficit in the country would remain at a level of around 3,000 megawatts (MW).

The country, it explained would however experience an average increase in power demands by 15,440MW and 24,551MW in 2027.

The report indicated that the studies was undertaken by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) perhaps for the TCN, and that it forecasted for periods up to 2027.

“Nigeria will continue to suffer from a severe deficit in electrical energy from the main supply grid in the next 10 years. Even under most optimistic assumptions (high technical availability, high rainfalls, low demand growth), this energy deficit will remain at a level of around 3000MWh/h. In addition to insufficient generation capacity, constraints in the gas supplies will remain very important. Given the expected available generation capacity, gas constraints will continue to limit the available energy until 2025. The capability of the transmission network was calculated under the conditions of all active generators in service and the load distributed according to the MYTO allocation5.

The planned generation and transmission projects were considered. The capability of the 330kV network is limited by thermal as well as voltage stability constraints,” said the report.

Based on its findings as far back as 2015, it stated: “The adequacy of the generation and transmission systems in 2015 is summarised as follows: Nigeria suffered from a severe shortage of electrical energy. Based on an estimated demand of on-grid loads, the Energy Not Supplied (ENS) amounted to 19.3TWh, which represents a continuous average power of 2208MWh/h. The energy shortage was largely due to constraints in the gas-supply chain. These shortages led to an average deficit of 1512 MWh/h. Only some 77 per cent of the available energy from the power plants is utilised. The remaining 23 per cent is not utilised due to problems in the entire supply chain, including generation, transmission and distribution,” he added.

Continuing, it explained: “In addition to the energy shortage, there was a severe shortage in reliably available generation capacity (RANGC). RANGC represents the amount of generation that is available for 99 per cent of the time, irrespective of any gas and water constraints.

“It amounted to 5495MW. The gap between RANGC and peak demand amounted to some 2375MW, when using the same demand estimate. The shortage was not only due to insufficient installed generation capacity, but also due to poor availability of the generators. The primary frequency regulation of the power generating plants was not working in 2015, causing the statutory frequency limits to be exceeded every day. Six total and four partial Collapses occurred, which is very high by international standards,” said the report.

On transmission it stated: “Transmission constraints frequently limited the power flows in the network. Generation in the south-east frequently had to be reduced due to local transmission constraints and due to constraints in the lines from the Benin towards Lagos areas.

“Whenever the availability of generation was high, the flow from Shiroro to Kaduna had to be limited to ensure that voltage stability would be maintained in operation. As a result, the power allocated to the northern Discos (according to MYTO) could frequently not be met. Furthermore, a redistribution of power to the southern Discos often failed, ultimately requiring the generation in the south-eastern network to be reduced,” the report.

Accordingly, the report quantifies deficiencies in the generation and transmission systems, and provided information that can be used as a basis for developing solutions.

It thus added that: “The energy deficit could only be resolved with a massive addition of more power plants as considered by the generation expansion plan of this study. However, this will be difficult to achieve within the analysed time frame. If the expansion of gas-fired plants were to be accelerated to meet the demand, then the supply of gas would likewise have to increase.

https://www.financialwatchngr.com/2018/05/22/nigeriall-continue-to-suffer-power-crises-till-2028-tcn/

I don't understand the gas constraint issue, we produce 8.3 billion cubic ft of gas everyday. where do they go to?. if it is inability to get the gas where it is needed, that shouldn't take 10 years. a year is enough to build all the glass pipeline we need.

Vision 2027...

2028 ten years from now. So the six months our rocket science master proposed was just to send Jonathan away. Now six months has become ten years.

Wicked people everywhere.

It's a hopeless case because after 10 years they will still project another 10 years.

Obijulius:
Buhari and Osibanjo...two idiots.

Elected by idiots.

Supported by idiots.

Loved by idiots.

Mumu spotted, what did Jonathan did in the power sector for 5 years, or u get amnesia ni.

The jobless intellectually lazy idiotic pigs of Biafra can see what they have caused, supporting evil PDP to put us into perpetual darkness,

It shall never be well with evil PDP and their ineffectual buffoon.

Is it power issue you want to use to compensate your criminal incompetent cronies? Our national property to his criminal friends, what a pity.

GreatEngineer:
2028 ten years from now. So the six months our rocket science master proposed was just to send Jonathan away. Now six months has become ten years.

Wicked people everywhere.

I don't know what is wrong with the jobless intellectually lazy idiotic pigs of Biafra.

This report was done in the era of ineffectual buffoon.
As foolish as he is, he sold the power to his criminal cronies without this report.

Can Buhari try this? ��‍♂️���‍♂️
Don't fight me, I'm not available ��‍♂️��‍♂️��‍♂️.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EX24ZnqgAQE

buhariguy:
The jobless intellectually lazy idiotic pigs of Biafra can see what they have caused, supporting evil PDP to put us into perpetual darkness,

It shall never be well with evil PDP and their ineffectual buffoon.

Is it power issue you want to use to compensate your criminal incompetent cronies? Our national property to his criminal friends, what a pity.

stale blame game

Thunder fire your

Very possible,if someone told Nigerians in 1960 that in 2018 we will still not have stable power supply am sure they would ve laughed but reality is reality,so sad.

lo

lord have messi...

Truth

Imagine?

bad news

Can you imagine?

Otu ocha
Ikpu Buhari.
I luv darknes,so dt I cn charge higher.
Maka ndi oje na abali

[s]

buhariguy:
I don't know what is wrong with the jobless intellectually lazy idiotic pigs of Biafra.

This report was done in the era of ineffectual buffoon.
As foolish as he is, he sold the power to his criminal cronies without this report.

[/s]


Stop posting gibberish.

Here they go again.... What happened to all the visions they have been transmitting to us in the past ?

2028 too go soon land........

Exact full text of IGP address : For those who couldn't watch the IGP's video, this is the transcription(unedited):

“I mean, transmission, I mean effort, that the transmission cooperation to transmission, I mean transmission to have effect, ehm, apprehend, I mean, apprehensive towards the recommendation, recommended formation effective and effect, I mean, apprehensive at the transmission of…and transmission and transmission for the effective in the police command.”

“Sorry, I’m sorry please.”

(A man in suit joined him to help hold down his script, and even helped with the pronunciation of the words. But this didn’t make the reading any better for the IGP).

He continued, “All effective the transmission, other transmission, I can state without contradiction that I have commissioned what?”.

“Over transmission of, over transmission of, over all kidnapping, armed robbery and other heinous crimes, I mean, ehm, commission transmission, recommendation transmission.”

The end!

If this man was not under a powerful spell, disastrously sent from Saraki's camp, then the Innocent Blood of those killed by herdsmen is already calling for fierce Vengeance upon his head and those silently encouraging the satanic killings. Even hard drugs can't be this potent. Them and their generation shall surely pay in this World and in the Hereafter.

They have been repeating the same narrative since the 70s

They should hire the IGP for proper transmission

We've been suffering since 1960, 2028 is just around the corner, I just hope the vision won't be transmissioned.