It is yet another election season in Nigeria again and the political clime is reeling with activity. So much debacle ranging from mass defections, to disqualification and reelection bids. Among these, the most notable of recent times is the sought after 2nd term ticket by the incumbent Governor of Lagos State His Excellency Governor Akinwunmi Ambode from his party the APC.
A lot of speculation has surrounded the media about the uncertainty surrounding the continuity of his administration in a 2nd term. Rumour had it that the candidate of the Mandate Group, an influential faction of the Lagos arm of APC has been endorsed for the Governor’s ticket in 2019 (Babajide Sanwoolu).
It eventually turned out that most of this speculation was true. In addition to this, the situation has degenerated to the point where the 57 LCDA chairmen, the influencial Iyalojas and the Governor’s Advisory Council GAC have endorsed Sanwoolu and expressed their vote of no confidence on Ambode. The pinnacle of this saga was seen today in the press conference given by the Governor; how he did not spare his opponents in the party but took them on by assaulting Sanwoolu’s credibility. The question is, who can we justifiably take sides with?
Firstly, we must understand that the same party system that nominated Ambode from obscurity to the limelight is what denied him the ticket. If he has enjoyed privileges given to him by a system he must also respect the same system when it severes the umbilical ties. What is their grouse with him? From reliable sources, the feelers are that he has not managed his relationships with party members in a diplomatic manner. He also refused to follow the blueprint of the party for the state which his predecessors did follow. For example his utter disregard for the LAWMA PSP system in operation spurned him to introduce his own initiative “Visionscape” which automatically detached party members hands from the cookie jar of waste management in Lagos State. His popularity is also wanton among the civil servants. A director once said “Before he came in, I never had to bother about paying house rent because even though our salary is so poor as civil servants, we know the things we did that got us more money. But ever since he came in things have been so tight, no activity, everything frozen, no money in circulation. Imagine that a Permanent Secretary cannot approve more than N500,000!” Rumour also has it that several attempts from various quarters to contact him for dialogue on most of these issues proved abortive but rather the embattled Governor responded with petulance. Hence the mass revolt. As far as the party is concerned, “Ambode, you are nothing without us”. He was unanimously nominated and sponsored on the platform of the party structure without which he could not have been what he is. Therefore the party reserves the right to give a vote of no confidence.
Secondly, in view of the wider picture, the APC desires to retain its presidential ticket in 2019. Since the party has experienced a lot of turbulence of recent from internal squabbles and mass defections; it would be foolhardy for it to rock the boat knowing the strategic role of Lagos in politics. As some call him “the poster boy of this administration” because he seems to be one of the best performing governors in the party, not granting him the ticket would be tantamount to pressing the self-destruct button. This might have devastating effects in both the upcoming gubernatorial and presidential elections in terms of perception of the party. Therefore I really think that the party should have shown mercy by issuing renewed terms and conditions which would include “settling” all the aggrieved for all they “lost” during the period.
Thirdly there is also the element of Karma. Reminiscing down memory lane, the erstwhile Governor Babatunde Fashola had his preferred candidate to succeed him but the National Leader Bola Tinubu chose to endorse Ambode. Since Fashola was already out of favour with Tinubu and had previously had altercations with Ambode as a commissioner, the feud continued. Immediately after Ambode was sworn in as Governor, he took to the media with all sorts of defamation of his predecessors character; a campaign of calumny. He also crippled so many of Fashola’s projects in order to discredit his legacy. Then there was also the rumoured inhumane persecution of a church priest. If we were to reckon the law of Karma as being active, that may just be presently what is playing out.
Fourthly, in his decision not to drown without a fight, the governor decided to contest in the primaries. Hence his world press conference today in which he did not spare his opponents but went all out in dissing Sanwoolu. This is my opinion – the APC must be careful what it wishes for. If direct primaries have never been used until the advent of this saga and it is being done to humiliate an incumbent governor, they should not be averse to a dirty fight. In advanced democracies like the US, direct party primaries are always a fierce battle with intense campaigning and war of words among the candidates. So Ambode’s statements in his campaign for primaries should not be a surprise. They get what they asked for – “let the candidates contest on a level playing ground and let them be voted for freely”.
Finally, I really do not expect him to win the party ticket in the primaries. This is because he may have the cash but no structures in place to support it. This is his Achilles heel. His godfather Bola Tinubu is so powerful because he has established a structure in place which is on autopilot to keep on reinforcing his political supremacy in the state. Unfortunately for him, Tinubu is a ruthless machiavellian, who always uses deterrents as scapegoats and a warning for any intended traitor. This has played out severally with people like Bucknor Akerele and Femi Pedro. I suspect he would end up being impeached. He would then either be wooed by PDP for the ticket or be compensated with a ministerial position if Buhari is re-elected.
Then it would be written on the annals of history – “Ambode, you died fighting!”

Na Fashola I wan hear from.
Why is he keeping KWAYET?