MrDDM:
2019 : A BATTLE BETWEEN LION AND LION


The emergence of the former vice president, Alh. Atiku Abubakar as the presidential candidate of 2019 under the platform of PDP , has created a hot political hubbub among politicians, voters, public media analysts / political analyst in Nigeria and abroad with different point of views.

Its quite obvious that 2019 is going to be very complicated and unpredictable because both of the leading Aspirants have a lot of common characteristics, for example Atiku and Buhari are septuagenarian, Both of them are Muslim of Fulani background. The incumbent president is from Daura katsina state nortwest, while his close opponent, Atiku Abubakar hail from Jada Adamawa state Northeast. The game to some observers is seems to be like that of 1999 between Olu Falae and Olusegun Obasanjo.

As far as competence is concerned, Atiku and Buhari had great experience in the art of governance and national politics. Thus, everyone of them has the ability to play his card wisely. Buhari is considered a non corrupt politician. but he is accused of being weak to control some corrupt officials in his cabinet. On the contrary, Atiku, who is an industrialist, is considered corrupt, although no visible evidence affirm the allegation against him.
Its important to note is that politics is always a game of calcultion. For many staunch APC supporters and core Buharist is very easy as abc for APC to defeat Wazirin Adamawa in forthcoming election, vice versa for those who flood media with #Atikulation. But it is not be so!

Based on the history of Nigerian politics and electoral behavior of the voters. average Nigerian vote according to religious and ethnic feeling. Apart from that, the alliance is a determining factor in winning federal election. It is almost impossible to win elections at the federal level without an alliance between the two main ethnic groups, ie Hausa + Igbo or Yoruba, with a good percentage from minority states. For istnce the NCNC of igbo and NPC of Hausa / Fulani, allied themselves in the first republic and formed a national government.The Alliance also had continues between Igbo and Hausa in the second republic, when Shehu Shagari and the late Alex Ekueme won the election of 1979. Not so long ago, the Hausa and Yoruba alliance brought Buhari to power in 2015.

There is no doubt that Buhari can win Northwest, so the business could not be usual as it happens in 2015, because this time, its Atiku, A core Northener with a formidable structure and machinery working for him in the North, Not Jonathan, a Christian from the south. for example, the votes of kano state can be divided because Kwankwaso is the stronghold of kano politics. In addition, the Sokoto state is now controlled by the PDP, which could give unexpected votes to Atiku. Sule Lamido could work for Atiku in Jigawa because he had bittter experience under APC administration. In Zamfara, cattle rustling and general insecurity in the state, combined with the state's APC crisis, could reduce the number of Buhari votes. It can be said that APC does not have much fear in Katsina, Kaduna and Kebbi.

In the north-east, Buhari can win all states except Taraba, which was usually win by the PDP in previous elections. However, Adamawa can vote in favor of Atiku because he is their son.

Buhari may face challenges in some North Central states, especially Benue, Plateau and Nasarawa, where there is high number of northern Christian, who accused him of being fanatical muslim and one who support Fulani herdsmen. While kwara May goes to Atiku, if Saraki endorse him. APC has no much problem in Kogi, Niger and FCT.

All of the southwestern states are controlled by APC, besides that, the influence of Bola Tinubu and Vice President Yemi Osinbanjo in the west, Buhari has every tendency to get more than 70% votes of the region. While Southeast can give more than 80% of their votes to Atiku, because he chooses Peter Obi as running mate from the Zone.

As for the south-south, they vote for PDP naturally, and they can vote for Atiku because they see Buhari as someone who has taken power from their kinsman (Jonathan). However, the entire zone is controlled by PDP except Edo State.

To conclude , a difficult task is ahead for both APC and PDP to win presidential election in 2019.

Murtala Tijjani Dandume
14/10/2018

garfield1:

By this analysis,buhari has won already because if atiku wins ss/se and loses niger,kogi,fct and kogi and the south west,he has lost.votes from ne/nw will consume that of ss/se while sw will neutralize north central.the liberal minded people of ss are not bitter about gej's loss,they have moved on.only the east may be bitter.many voters despise atiku in ss plus more are joining apc in droves.the pdp establishment here is lukewarm towards atiku,only seriake is working for him.


The only way for atiku to beat buhari is for him to poll at least 10 million in ss/se,3 million in sw,an outright win in north central and score up to 6 million in ne/nw.inother words,he needs to win all the states in ss/se massively,3 states in the west,5 in nc and 3 in the ne.this is impossible so buhari still wins....

garfield1:

By this analysis,buhari has won already because if atiku wins ss/se and loses niger,kogi,fct and kogi and the south west,he has lost.votes from ne/nw will consume that of ss/se while sw will neutralize north central.[b]the liberal minded people of ss are not bitter about gej's loss,they have moved on.only the east may be bitter.[/b]many voters despise atiku in ss plus more are joining apc in droves.the pdp establishment here is lukewarm towards atiku,only seriake is working for him.


The only way for atiku to beat buhari is for him to poll at least 10 million in ss/se,3 million in sw,an outright win in north central and score up to 6 million in ne/nw.inother words,he needs to win all the states in ss/se massively,3 states in the west,5 in nc and 3 in the ne.this is impossible so buhari still wins....

kingkakaone:
All these analysis here and there when election is not dpfar again.
How about people don't get their hopes up so they won't be disappointed?

I see many tears and suicide after 2019 election.