the analysis will be for the two front runners of the 2019 presidential election that is Atiku and Buhari. i will use their parties as their symbol.

the NW and SS, SE
according to reports the total registered voters in the NW is about 18m
those of SE and SS combined is about 19M

now i am combining SE and SS because the two zones joined together will compared to the NW and both candidates enjoy similar popularity in both zones.
hence, whatever votes that comes from NW will be canceled by SS & SE and vice versa, therefore it is zero for both candidates in these zones.

the SW
going by the trends of elections in this zone e.g osun and ekiti, one will conclude that no candidate will get any block vote from this zone. any winner will not have a wide margin, besides, the battle seems to be between Tinubu and Obasanjo, they may fight for supremacy in that zone,
hence it looks to be 50:50 for the candidates.

the NE
the battle of the 2019 election will be fought in the NE. the zone is where the two parties will show their strength. whoever wins here may have an edge.
lets see how the candidates stand in this zone.
Bornu= APC
Yobe = APC
Bauchi = APC
Gombe + PDP
Taraba = PDP
Adamawa = PDP because of the presidential candidate.
hence it looks 50:50 for both.

the NC
whoever wins or looses in the NE, his fate would be sealed in the NC, hence the NC will be the deciding zone.
lets see how they stand.
Plateau : though an APC state, but feelers suggest otherwise in the 2019.
Kogi: same as Plateau
Nasarawa: 50:50
Niger: APC
Benue PDP
Kwara: PDP because of Saraki factor
FCT:50:50

PDP will win no need of analysis..

An accolade for the Op

You Atiku fans are amusing with the way you embrace fantasy, out of desperation, to be saying senseless things even a child of 2 will appear foolish uttering. When OP said the SW is a battle between Tinubu and OBASANJO I simply stopped reading and continue to laugh till now. What structure does OBJ have on the ground where APC controls every single State in the SW as opposed to 2015 where Ondo was labour(Mimiko) and Ekiti was PDP(Fayose)?

OBJ who had long lost on the ground influence as far back as 2011 when Tinubu led the APC to defeat Obasanjo in hs own ward and banished his daughter from politics for good by taking the Ogun central senatorial seat from Iyabo Obasanjo? Iyabo is now languishing in America too ashamed to come
home after Tinubu dismantled her and her father.

I swear Atiku fans are so desperate they are now announcing the miracle they want to happen rather than confronting the reality of what logic tells every sane man is the only possibilty. As they say 'dream on dreamer'. I am still laughing at the OBJ v Tinubu face off.

deboysben:
An accolade for the Op

Accolade for the most naive analysis totally ignorant of the reality on the ground? You Atiku fans are doing yourselves no favours embracing fantasy. You will only become more wounded when Atiku loses woefully because you were all too blind and delusional to face reality.

Oshigun:


Accolade for the most naive analysis totally ignorant of the reality on the ground? You Atiku fans are doing yourselves no favours embracing fantasy. You will only become more wounded when Atiku loses woefully because you were all too blind and delusional to face reality.

your rant cannot stop me from supporting atiku Obi

Support your own let me do mine

Oshigun:
You Atiku fans are amusing with the way you embrace fantasy, out of desperation, to be saying senseless things even a child of 2 will appear foolish uttering. When OP said the SW is a battle between Tinubu and OBASANJO I simply stopped reading and continue to laugh till now. What structure does OBJ have on the ground where APC controls every single State in the SW as opposed to 2015 where Ondo was labour(Mimiko) and Ekiti was PDP(Fayose)?

OBJ who had long lost on the ground influence as far back as 2011 when Tinubu led the APC to defeat Obasanjo in hs own ward and banished his daughter from politics for good by taking the Ogun central senatorial seat from Iyabo Obasanjo? Iyabo is now languishing in America too ashamed to come
home after Tinubu dismantled her and her father.

I swear Atiku fans are so desperate they are now announcing the miracle they want to happen rather than confronting the reality of what logic tells every sane man is the only possibilty. As they say 'dream on dreamer'. I am still laughing at the OBJ v Tinubu face off.

Shut up!

hahahaha its only an nyamuri flat.head ipob member that fabricates a lie, convince himself and then feels good about it..if not, how can u say the SW will be 50:50 bcuz of obasanjo factor(forgetting that the VP is from that region) , and why not apply the same logic since majority of the SE governors are not on the same page with Atiku, jeopardizing any clean sweep that Atiku should had naturally gain

Buhari can never lose gombe state, even the state governor survived by a whisker during the gubernatorial election bcuz of buhari's factor, even when Tinubu intentionally sided with PDP to divide buhari's votes in the north,he contested against shekarau, ribadu, atiku and yar'adua and still won gombe state, even when he had no political structure whatsoever... its funny how people think bcuz the gov is in PDP then Atiku will win, should we also say Buhari will win imo state?

you also got it wrong on Kogi and osun state, bcuz both are going to APC/Buhari.. i slightly disgree with kwara state too, as i believe 50:50, even if PDP wins,it will be with a small margin

70% of Atiku supporters are from the SE/SS region and have never been to the core north, talk less of analyzing the political terrain, i know u like to give urself some sense false hope to feel good about urslef, but Buhari is a religion here and the only state i see him losing in core north, is Tarab and maybe Adamawa(unlikely)

uzzyke:
the analysis will be for the two front runners of the 2019 presidential election that is Atiku and Buhari. i will use their parties as their symbol.

the NW and SS, SE
according to reports the total registered voters in the NW is about 18m
those of SE and SS combined is about 19M

now i am combining SE and SS because the two zones joined together will compared to the NW and both candidates enjoy similar popularity in both zones.
hence, whatever votes that comes from NW will be canceled by SS & SE and vice versa, therefore it is zero for both candidates in these zones.

the SW
going by the trends of elections in this zone e.g osun and ekiti, one will conclude that no candidate will get any block vote from this zone. any winner will not have a wide margin, besides, the battle seems to be between Tinubu and Obasanjo, they may fight for supremacy in that zone,
hence it looks to be 50:50 for the candidates.

the NE
the battle of the 2019 election will be fought in the NE. the zone is where the two parties will show their strength. whoever wins here may have an edge.
lets see how the candidates stand in this zone.
Bornu= APC
Yobe = APC
Bauchi = APC
Gombe + PDP
Taraba = PDP
Adamawa = PDP because of the presidential candidate.
hence it looks 50:50 for both.

the NC
whoever wins or looses in the NE, his fate would be sealed in the NC, hence the NC will be the deciding zone.
lets see how they stand.
Plateau : though an APC state, but feelers suggest otherwise in the 2019.
Kogi: same as Plateau
Nasarawa: 50:50
Niger: APC
Benue PDP
Kwara: PDP because of Saraki factor
FCT:50:50

Awol1:


Shut up!

Painment. You will be in even greater pain in Febuhari

deboysben:
your rant cannot stop me from supporting atiku Obi

Support your own let me do mine

Happy to do that but it is your folks bloviating over the forum and licking Yorubas azz plead we support Atiku instead of simply meeting us at the poll. Comical.

When was the last time Obasanjo or his people won an election in the SW? In 2011 his candidate Olurin lost, His daughter lost

But this same useless Obasanjo will make Atiku win SW

Keep on believing

raumdeuter:
When was the last time Obasanjo or his people won an election in the SW? In 2011 his candidate Olurin lost, His daughter lost

But this same useless Obasanjo will make Atiku win SW

Keep on believing

Atiku supporters are seriously delusional. That is exactly the same argument I made above. OBJ is zilch on the ground in the SW. Even Buruji Kashamu has more political clout in the SW today than Baba Iyabo.

uzzyke:
the analysis will be for the two front runners of the 2019 presidential election that is Atiku and Buhari. i will use their parties as their symbol.

the NW and SS, SE
according to reports the total registered voters in the NW is about 18m
those of SE and SS combined is about 19M

now i am combining SE and SS because the two zones joined together will compared to the NW and both candidates enjoy similar popularity in both zones.
hence, whatever votes that comes from NW will be canceled by SS & SE and vice versa, therefore it is zero for both candidates in these zones.

the SW
going by the trends of elections in this zone e.g osun and ekiti, one will conclude that no candidate will get any block vote from this zone. any winner will not have a wide margin, besides, the battle seems to be between Tinubu and Obasanjo, they may fight for supremacy in that zone,
hence it looks to be 50:50 for the candidates.

the NE
the battle of the 2019 election will be fought in the NE. the zone is where the two parties will show their strength. whoever wins here may have an edge.
lets see how the candidates stand in this zone.
Bornu= APC
Yobe = APC
Bauchi = APC
Gombe + PDP
Taraba = PDP
Adamawa = PDP because of the presidential candidate.
hence it looks 50:50 for both.

the NC
whoever wins or looses in the NE, his fate would be sealed in the NC, hence the NC will be the deciding zone.
lets see how they stand.
Plateau : though an APC state, but feelers suggest otherwise in the 2019.
Kogi: same as Plateau
Nasarawa: 50:50
Niger: APC
Benue PDP
Kwara: PDP because of Saraki factor
FCT:50:50

At the point you wrote "saraki factor" I realized you have no idea of what your writing

bender79:
At the point you wrote "saraki factor" I realized you have no idea of what your writing

well iam not a politician and will never be, i dont support or work against any political party, in 2015 i voted APC for presidential election, that does not mean i dont have opinion.
if you underestimate sarki political dynasty, you do so at your own peril.

Oshigun:


Atiku supporters are seriously delusional. That is exactly the same argument I made above. OBJ is zilch on the ground in the SW. Even Buruji Kashamu has more political clout in the SW today than Baba Iyabo.

i think you are more politically naive about southwest politics than you think. watch the trend, iam not from southwest but i can tell you that you are delusional. SW is more regional integration inclined than you think. watch the days of AD and so on, its obasanjo and then Tinubu that is championing this national politics of a thing. that is why even up to now, this issue restructuring is going to play and important role in this 2019. if you think Obasanjo doesn't have a political relevance, you deceive yourself.

uzzyke:


well iam not a politician and will never be, i dont support or work against any political party, in 2015 i voted APC for presidential election, that does not mean i dont have opinion.
if you underestimate sarki political dynasty, you do so at your own peril.

do you even know that the PDP would loose more due to ssraki, did you see the kwara PDP scam rally, did you see the bye election, have you seen the last minute ditch by him to remove his preferred senatorial candidate for another, the fillers are their that he would loose any election now in kwara,

Niger is APC,

kogi would go to APC with a sitting dedicated governor for buhari plus apc federal support,

fct is the backward of the whole thing for APC,

Nasarawa has core north tradition for APC plus with a sitting governor.

Plateau would be 50/50, Benue pdp

SEE THE INCREDIBLE BENEFITS YOU GET WHEN YOU DEVELOP YOUR WEBSITE WITH OUR ICT-CENTRIC BUSINESS WEBSITE DEVELOPMENT

Nigerians are beginning to recognize that brick and mortal businesses would get patronage from their catchment, “but when you take a business online, its opportunities are limitless.

When customers are deciding on a purchase, they start by looking online.

Your website is your showroom, where customers can research your product and see all the reasons it is right for them.

What You Get!

== SSL Certificate Installed for FREE
== 1 year US-based Hosting (comes with unlimited Traffic)
== Free Domain for 1 Year
== Beautiful Crafted Website
== SEO Implementation with Google Analytics & Google Console for Good online Ranking
== Comes developed with VERY GOOD Website Speed!
== Logo Design for your Brand (in case you don’t have)
== Websites comes with 99.9% uptime
== Basic Website Maintenance for 2 Months for FREE...YES! For Absolutely FREE!
== 2 Banner Designs to promote your brand…FOR FREE
== Unlimited Hosting Space

PLUS MUCH MORE!

uzzyke:
the analysis will be for the two front runners of the 2019 presidential election that is Atiku and Buhari. i will use their parties as their symbol.

the NW and SS, SE
according to reports the total registered voters in the NW is about 18m
those of SE and SS combined is about 19M

now i am combining SE and SS because the two zones joined together will compared to the NW and both candidates enjoy similar popularity in both zones.
hence, whatever votes that comes from NW will be canceled by SS & SE and vice versa, therefore it is zero for both candidates in these zones.

[s]the SW
going by the trends of elections in this zone e.g osun and ekiti, one will conclude that no candidate will get any block vote from this zone. any winner will not have a wide margin, besides, the battle seems to be between Tinubu and Obasanjo, they may fight for supremacy in that zone,
hence it looks to be 50:50 for the candidates.[/s]

the NE
the battle of the 2019 election will be fought in the NE. the zone is where the two parties will show their strength. whoever wins here may have an edge.
lets see how the candidates stand in this zone.
Bornu= APC
Yobe = APC
Bauchi = APC
Gombe + PDP
Taraba = PDP
Adamawa = PDP because of the presidential candidate.
hence it looks 50:50 for both.
i.

the NC
whoever wins or looses in the NE, his fate would be sealed in the NC, hence the NC will be the deciding zone.
lets see how they stand.
Plateau : though an APC state, but feelers suggest otherwise in the 2019.
Kogi: same as Plateau
Nasarawa: 50:50
Niger: APC
Benue PDP
Kwara: PDP because of Saraki factor
FCT:50:50

Trash,It seems you've never been to southwest before

raumdeuter:
When was the last time Obasanjo or his people won an election in the SW? In 2011 his candidate Olurin lost, His daughter lost

But this same useless Obasanjo will make Atiku win SW

Keep on believing

.You dey mind the Op?Obasanjo will lose his polling booth as usual,am from the same senatorial district with baba iyabo,he is from Abeokuta north while am from Abeokuta south, there's no way Obasanjo can win his polling booth for any candidate so u people should stop this stupid irritating 50/50,they should just mention the state they expect PDP to get votes from in southwest.

uzzyke:


i think you are more politically naive about southwest politics than you think. watch the trend, iam not from southwest but i can tell you that you are delusional. SW is more regional integration inclined than you think. watch the days of AD and so on, its obasanjo and then Tinubu that is championing this national politics of a thing. that is why even up to now, this issue restructuring is going to play and important role in this 2019. if you think Obasanjo doesn't have a political relevance, you deceive yourself.

Bros, all you wrote above is rubbish. Just accept you know nothing about SW politics, take your educational lecture, and move on. Is it not obvious the SW is now controlled by APC 100% making regional integration even easier thus rendering PDP OBJ irrelevant in that matter? What exactly is OBJ or the PDP needed for?

Oshigun:
You Atiku fans are amusing with the way you embrace fantasy, out of desperation, to be saying senseless things even a child of 2 will appear foolish uttering. When OP said the SW is a battle between Tinubu and OBASANJO I simply stopped reading and continue to laugh till now. What structure does OBJ have on the ground where APC controls every single State in the SW as opposed to 2015 where Ondo was labour(Mimiko) and Ekiti was PDP(Fayose)?

OBJ who had long lost on the ground influence as far back as 2011 when Tinubu led the APC to defeat Obasanjo in hs own ward and banished his daughter from politics for good by taking the Ogun central senatorial seat from Iyabo Obasanjo? Iyabo is now languishing in America too ashamed to come
home after Tinubu dismantled her and her father.

I swear Atiku fans are so desperate they are now announcing the miracle they want to happen rather than confronting the reality of what logic tells every sane man is the only possibilty. As they say 'dream on dreamer'. I am still laughing at the OBJ v Tinubu face off.

as much as I will also not take that obj vs tinubu analysis but the reality in ground in the south west is showing that it is not going to be like 2015 for apc. if you believe otherwise then I have nothing to say but to wait till election time. the truth is atiku still has a slight edge over buhari.

Obasanjo who is not even certain of winning his polling booth wants to deliver for Atiku. On which campaign projects / promises?

In 2015, so many NE local governments were under the control of BH. Presently, normalcy have returned and who do you think they will vote for?

So Akpabio, Oshiomole, Okorocha combined wont give Buhari's 35%?

Election is not won online. Continuing believing your own lies.

Oshigun:
You Atiku fans are amusing with the way you embrace fantasy, out of desperation, to be saying senseless things even a child of 2 will appear foolish uttering. When OP said the SW is a battle between Tinubu and OBASANJO I simply stopped reading and continue to laugh till now. What structure does OBJ have on the ground where APC controls every single State in the SW as opposed to 2015 where Ondo was labour(Mimiko) and Ekiti was PDP(Fayose)?

OBJ who had long lost on the ground influence as far back as 2011 when Tinubu led the APC to defeat Obasanjo in hs own ward and banished his daughter from politics for good by taking the Ogun central senatorial seat from Iyabo Obasanjo? Iyabo is now languishing in America too ashamed to come
home after Tinubu dismantled her and her father.

I swear Atiku fans are so desperate they are now announcing the miracle they want to happen rather than confronting the reality of what logic tells every sane man is the only possibilty. As they say 'dream on dreamer'. I am still laughing at the OBJ v Tinubu face off.

You know the imposter cannot win next so stop fooling yourself.
Atiku is your next president unless u want to commit suicide cuz only God can stop Atiku.

success1smyn:


as much as I will also not take that obj vs tinubu analysis but the reality in ground in the south west is showing that it is not going to be like 2015 for apc. if you believe otherwise then I have nothing to say but to wait till election time. the truth is atiku still has a slight edge over buhari.

With APC Governors in charge of every single SW State? With a popular and well-liked Yoruba VP who is the brain behind tradermoni and other initiative and has deputised well for Buhari? With the relative importance of the SW at the centre and the chance to produce the President in 2023?

All that will be thrown away for a man whose claim to fame is corruption and unconscionable looting of our commonwealth and his Yoruba-hating sidekick? Wait till grassroot mobilisers start spreading the message that Obigotry urged his people not to vote "the Yoruba Party" in the past. We will see how many votes that bigoted utterance alone will cost Atiku and the PDP.

I could go on but long and short is that Atiku has no chance in the SW. You can continue giving him internet wins but PMB will win on the ground in the SW comfortably.

4kDdullard:
You know the imposter cannot win next so stop fooling yourself.
Atiku is your next president unless u want to commit suicide cuz only God can stop Atiku.

Whether na Jibrin , Buhari , Usman or even Bakayoko all I know is we are voting for the tall slim man who is currently occupying the position of the President of Nigeria.

Oshigun:


With APC Governors in charge of every single SW State? With a popular and well-liked Yoruba VP who is the brain behind tradermoni and other initiative and has deputised well for Buhari? With the relative importance of the SW at the centre and the chance to produce the President in 2023?

All that will be thrown away for a man whose claim to fame is corruption and unconscionable looting of our commonwealth and his Yoruba-hating sidekick? Wait till grassroot mobilisers start spreading the message that Obigotry urged his people not to vote "the Yoruba Party" in the past. We will see how many votes that bigoted utterance alone will cost Atiku and the PDP.

I could go on but long and short is that Atiku has no chance in the SW. You can continue giving him internet wins but PMB will win on the ground in the SW comfortably.

the problem again

no reason to vote pmb more than this Yoruba vp ish or Yoruba guaranteed presidency in 2023.
see my brother if we are interested in a better Nigeria we have to look beyond tribal and religious sentiments.

my 2k

has people forgotten what happened in osun?

southwesterners electorate are people with high educational background, they are not d alimajiris in d north.

thou APC might win but with a merger figure

take osun and ekiti election as a template

akerodolu and amosun might not work very hard for buhari

wonderful unbiased analysis

success1smyn:


the problem again

no reason to vote pmb more than this Yoruba vp ish or Yoruba guaranteed presidency in 2023.
see my brother if we are interested in a better Nigeria we have to look beyond tribal and religious sentiments.

my 2k

And you believed they will leave their son for Atiku/Obi? What's in from PDP to SW?

alhassanyusuf29:
hahahaha its only an nyamuri flat.head ipob member that fabricates a lie, convince himself and then feels good about it..if not, how can u say the SW will be 50:50 bcuz of obasanjo factor(forgetting that the VP is from that region) , and why not apply the same logic since majority of the SE governors are not on the same page with Atiku, jeopardizing any clean sweep that Atiku should had naturally gain

Buhari can never lose gombe state, even the state governor survived by a whisker during the gubernatorial election bcuz of buhari's factor, even when Tinubu intentionally sided with PDP to divide buhari's votes in the north,he contested against shekarau, ribadu, atiku and yar'adua and still won gombe state, even when he had no political structure whatsoever... its funny how people think bcuz the gov is in PDP then Atiku will win, should we also say Buhari will win imo state?

you also got it wrong on Kogi and osun state, bcuz both are going to APC/Buhari.. i slightly disgree with kwara state too, as i believe 50:50, even if PDP wins,it will be with a small margin

70% of Atiku supporters are from the SE/SS region and have never been to the core north, talk less of analyzing the political terrain, i know u like to give urself some sense false hope to feel good about urslef, but Buhari is a religion here and the only state i see him losing in core north, is Tarab and maybe Adamawa(unlikely)

YOU ARE VERY CORRECT BRUH, BULLHARY IS ONE OF THE GREATEST PROPHET OF ISLAM

uzzyke:


i think you are more politically naive about southwest politics than you think. watch the trend, iam not from southwest but i can tell you that you are delusional. SW is more regional integration inclined than you think. watch the days of AD and so on, its obasanjo and then Tinubu that is championing this national politics of a thing. that is why even up to now, this issue restructuring is going to play and important role in this 2019. if you think Obasanjo doesn't have a political relevance, you deceive yourself.

stop spitting trash everwhere you re politically naive and dont know about southwest politics.
your predictions is a testament that u know nothing about politics generally u only rely on wishful thinking and fantasies.
let me school you about south west politics

1. after formation of pdp , yorubas were offered to the presidential slot to pacify them after abiola's death. the afenifere and yoruba elders opted for olu falae but pdp rejected and choosed obj against the yoruba nation .
olu falae floor obsanjo(pdp) in south west 1999.

2. 2003. pdp had no presence in south west region so obj made a move to sought for south west governors help for his relection bid and promised to ensure the govs also return for 2nd term in office but obj had ulterior motives .only tinubu escaped this.
obj won south west 2003 with the help govs but betrayed them by making sure pdp sweep entire south west region except lagos.


3. 2007. yorubas regional party was disorganised and yet to recover from pdp tsunami .south west had no serious candidate like olu falae 1999 were divided btw tinubu's Ac party(atiku as flag bearer) and pdp (yar adua as flagbearer)

4. 2011 elections. south west regional party has witnessed tremendous recovery through tinubu's ACN. yet they had no serious candidate for presidential election in 2011. jonathan was aware of the tinubu regional growth with south west politics and he sought for his help in 2011 and tinubu worked for Gej which ensures pdp won entire south west states except osun state where pdp lost. but the gubernatorial elections in south west produce different result .ACN swept all south west states execept ondo won by(mimiko) labour party. pdp lost in the six states of south west.

5. 2015 elections . this period yoruba regional party has merged with northern cpc another regional party which makes a formidable team. both produce a candidate for president and vp slot. 2015 south west votes was shared btw osibanjo and jonathan another southerner (incumbent) then pdp had two governors in south west at ekiti and ondo.

6. 2019 elections. is going to play out like 1999 elections where yoruba regional party was formidable and had a credible candidate. just like 1999 pdp stand no chance in south west against yorubas regional force (apc)
the similarites of 1999 and 2019 is
in 1999 pdp is not the at federal ,and state levels in south west region ,
in 1999 south. west had a regional and formidable force.


so dont let anybody decieve you pdp will loose southwest to apc they will be lucky to get 38% of votes .

Op! need beta knock for deceiving d desperate ones