Olumeme:
I stopped reading when you predicted APC winning Nassarawa state. Hehehehehehehehehe.

First of all, PDP has never lost a presidential election there, even with all change noise in 2015.

I go to maraba every other week, because I gave friends and colleagues there, I can tell you authoritatively that APC cannot win presidential elections in Nassarawa, I can bet with my head.

For kogi state, there are 3 senatorial districts, the west, Central and East.
I am From kogi state, I'll tell you for free that buhari can only win the central because of the influence of the president governor, who is very violent, but PDP is Winning east and west, I can tell you for free.

The abysmal performance of the governor will add to the woes of buhari because it is perceived that, Bello is a godson of buhari and he doesn't pay salaries.

Away from that, there's practically no APC in taraba, it was mama taraba who was the leader of the party and was funding it there, she left and even has to pack her belongings from their office, all local APC Chairman and wards followed her, she's very close to Atiku.

Away from that, the economic reality does not favour buhari, the street is hungry and everyone is lamenting.
Someone like me supported and voted for buhari in 2015, but it will never happen again, there are lots of people like that, who voted for buhari but won't repeat the same mistake again.

I was a student in FUTMINNA, in 2015, you don't dare call Jonathan or post his poster, you will be beaten, I know an igbo friend who was stabbed because he was campaigning for jonathan, but the story is different today, because the 2 candidates are northerners and Muslims, and people can campaign for whoever they want without fear.

Other factors like Shiites shooting, Southern kaduna crisis, fulani killings and bandits, soldiers dying in the war front etc will be a factor in that election..

BuhariAdvocate:
sense fall on you. those moderators couldn't justify why they banning APC supporters on nairaland seun should look to this matter. Passingshot you deserve accolades you must be Yoruba or you have all your education in Yoruba land because only Yoruba invest in knowledge like you.But i would like to bring it to your notice there's no way PDP gonna win jos and Benue .forget the fulani herdsmen's issues everybody knows that PDP sponsored the herdsmen to discredit the ruling party.

Gandollar:
Alas! This rubbish is on FP! NL has gone to the dogs!

truthstands20:
Your prediction is totally wrong. You'll be surprised. What happened on Nov 8th 2016/in USA will happen in Nigeria on 16th Feb 2019. Just watch. I don't want to talk too much. Many Nigerians are angry because of killings, poor economy, hardship and sufferings, etc. You'll see it on the ballot box and God's intervention will surprise you. Mark my words.

KingOfAllIgbos:


[s]All the major Northern chieftains have deserted Atiku.[/s]

Atiku foolishly choose a flattie instead of Yoruba as VP = NO Yoruba mass vote

[s]He chose an Igbo who doesn't have unanimous support of his people.... Only a few Igbos still campaign for him.

Seems the guy set himself up for failure. Beginning to suspect he's a plant by Buhari because he's made such terrible decisions[/s]

openmine:
The predictions will always be partisan considering the op's affiliation!

I didn't even bother going through the analysis knowing fully well that such stats will surely favour the op's party!

It would have been reasonable if such analysis was done by a neutral personality!

PassingShot:
South South Zone
This is a zone which many APC supporters and neutral political watchers believe APC has made a big in-road into, to the extent that many are predicting a win for PMB in Akwa-Ibom and a very good showing in Rivers and Delta. I personally see PMB winning Edo; reason being that it's the home state of APC's Chairman; APC won there in 2016 governorship election (a recession time); and APC did very well there in 2015 election despite intimidation by the military of PDP then.

Because of political alignment which saw Akpabio decamp to APC with his huge followership, APC can actually win Akwa Ibom but I have tempered my expectation with caution by predicting only 40% of the votes there for APC. With Akpabio in Akwa Ibom, Great Ogboru and Ayiri Emami in Delta, Rotimi Amechi, Tonye Cole and Nsima Ekere and other political heavy weigths on the side of APC in Akwa Ibom, it's only logical to expect APC score nothing less than 30% of the votes in this region; especially with almost zero chance of "writing result under special condition" in 2019.

Verdict - PDP to win the zone with no more than 65% of the total votes cast here.


South West Zone
Face the fact, if there is any region in Nigeria which doesn't largely vote based on religion and ethnicity, it is the SW zone of the country. If this wasn't true, GEJ/PDP would not have gotten 43% of the votes there with just about 587,000 vote difference in 2015, despite APC having Osinbajo on the ticket. But with major infrastructural projects (road, rail, power project) and N-Power plus Trader/Market Moni going on in the SW region; coupled with the facts that there is no shortage of political heavyweights from the region in APC; plus the facts that the region's Obas largely support PMB's 2nd term, PDP will have performed well to match their 2015 outing in SW. VP Osinbajo is from the zone (Ogun state) and APC recently won in Ekiti and Osun as well. Irrespective of what anyone might think, it's highly unthinkable for SW to abandon Osinbajo for a promise of SGF position in a PDP government. Forget that Obasanjo and Afenifere are supporting Atiku, these elements are only revered outside the SW.

It's important to point out that the performance of PDP in Osun was not really taken into consideration for the fact that electorate in that election, electorate wanted to punish APC/Aregbesola for not paying workers salaries for many months (same we saw in Ekiti as well). I personally know people who are APC but voted for Adeleke because of the salary issue. So, I do not see PDP doing as well as they did in that governorship election of 2018. Notwithstanding, I have largely left the prediction to about the same outcome of 2015 with just a flip of Ekiti to APC since the party won the governorship election there as recent as three months ago.

Verdict - APC wins SW by about 60% of total votes cast.

PassingShot:

Thanks for your words. I am a proud Yoruba from Ibadan.

Benue and Plateau are battleground states (within the margin of error of 5%). What this means is that it doesn't really matter who wins the two states because it won't affect the overall outcome much. Both parties will score well over 40% in those states, so my giving both to PDP doesn't mean APC can't win them.

DonFreshmoney:
A whole bunch of nonsense..

Bookmark this post.. Atiku is winning North Central. The only state buhari can win in north central is Niger.. which I even don't see it happening..

PassingShot:
It's only a matter of five weeks to the general election of 2019 which is a straight contest between PMB of APC and Atiku of PDP. In 2015, I did this thread and was successful to a very high degree (more than 90% success, you may want to read it here https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective).

In this year's prediction and analysis, I have considered political developments that we have witnessed till this moment in arriving at my prediction for each state. Notwithstanding, anyone who feels he/she has better information to change the outlook is free to say so and we will see what impact such can have on the overall result.

The prediction/projection is based on some assumptions and calculations stated below:


1. I have considered each party's strength and performance of 2015 general election in predicting their 2019 performance. I have actually put up the result of 2015 in this analysis.

2. Average voters turnout in 2015 was about 43% throughout the country. Each state's voters turnout for 2019 has been projected in line with that of 2015 except in cases where the turnout was lower than 43% national average that I have used the national average figure (43%).

3. 5% of the projected total votes have been allocated to other candidates including Sowore, Moghalu, Oby Ezekwesili, Durotoye, Olawepo Hashim and co. I don't think they will get more than that combined.

4. No party is projected to score anything close to 90% or 95% in any state as we witnessed in 2015. Most of the factors responsible for that anomaly are no longer in the mix in 2019.

5. Toss-up states aka battleground states have been given to the party I think will eventually win the state but with small margin (not more than 5% win margin).

Note: This prediction/analysis may be updated as we approach the election if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

Mandeyy:
Thanks, my bro. You are the only person that got the analysis correct. Buhari can only win by rigging. Otherwise, he can never win! I see a lot of electorates who voted for him in 2015 voting for Atiku, cos of poverty, bloodshed and poor economy. The scenario of 2015 is not the same as that of the present time. He and his cabal know he can never win this election. Even this OP knows this.

Galaticos444:
I jst want to know d kind of weed passingshot is smoking cos obviously he's not thinking straight

Gandollar:
Alas! This rubbish is on FP! NL has gone to the dogs!

Edodefender:
is it a crime to yawn?

After the results has been atikulated,i hope you won't meet your forefathers in their resting place?

Buterflyle0:
PassingShot you just made me a fan of yours. This is a very unbiased and almost bullseye accurate analysis.

As it stands the power of incumbency has changed and is now with APC. Buhari isn't as hopeless and clueless as GEJ was and if indeed he is as sentimental and focused about the salvaging of Nigeria as he says he is, then all checks would be subtly put in place to ensure PDP experiences as much stumbling blocks as possible.

He has even hinted in that when he said sometime ago and I quote;

" Any party EXCEPT PDP"

The buhari I see today will never allow the elements in PDP steal power again. The mistakes he made in the past will never repeat.

Again I love your analysis. Are you a statistician?

openmine:
The predictions will always be partisan considering the op's affiliation!

I didn't even bother going through the analysis knowing fully well that such stats will surely favour the op's party!

It would have been reasonable if such analysis was done by a neutral personality!

danot1030:


Passingshort i hope you have a spare head because some that likes to be deceived with the public noise and propaganda of Atiku/pdp will soon ask you for the one on your neck though your prediction is correct.

WATCHOVER:
Yes, OP you're correct base on facts and other factors you considered but I will tell you that politicians are shockers areas you feel comfortable might become hell at the end of the day. As for Kwara state APC should forget about that state as Nass bye election should not be considered as a basis that APC would have upper hand, Saraki is ready to go any length making sure that his party (the PDP) wins convincingly

dokyOloye:

So,after machine-gunning Igbo youths in the SS and SE,buhari will get a better result in the SE?
Wonderful.

Jhoanner:
Here I was thinking I was going to read an objective analysis. Write-up by OP shows he's nothing but an APC aplologist

PassingShot:

Laughable!

You didn't make any sense in your earlier post. You only blabbed that there's no way PMB is getting more than 5% in SE/SE. Is there anything in that nonsense to counter?

PassingShot:

If you read the opening statements you would have seen the link to that of 2015. Nairaland wasn't in existence in 2011.

Check that of 2015 out here
https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective

Jhoanner:
Here I was thinking I was going to read an objective analysis. Write-up by OP shows he's nothing but an APC aplologist

CilicMarin:
You are too Generous with Figures accredited to Atiku..

Atiku Cannot get up to 8 Million Votes in this Election..

Screenshot this comment..

Which state will give Atiku 1 Million Votes? Which State will Atiku get up to 500000 votes in North West and North East?

You are probably using an incumbent Jonathan in 2015 to determine an opposition PDP without Money, State apparatus, and integrity defecient in 2019.

I am out of this thread with annoyance.

sogodihno:



yes, he will. just watch.

prince3009:


You have described your pain in one sentence! The struck out text doesn't really matter!

I also speak for the likes of PassingShot, CilicMarin and Corrinthians

post=74719139:


I have gone through your prediction 2015 it was all wrong, PDP got 93% votes in Southeast and Southsouth, APC got 5%, your prediction in west 2015 was wrong PDP won Ekiti, got 48% votes from Lagos, 45% from others except Ekiti Gej got 55%, you predictions in north central was wrong most of the states you predicted GEJ will
Win he lost except Plateau state, in Northwest you predicted GEJ will win in Kaduna he lost their with wide margin, northwest and Northeast was very easy for any body to predict. You are fake