chozzy:



Abia has about 2m registered voters and if about 700k can't turn up for voting because of the factors you have listed here, then we have a serious case in Nigeria.
One of the factors I considered was that Peter Obi being Igbo should motivate his tribesmen in all SE states to vote. And yea, something tells me Abia will turn out more votes for APC in other elections except Presidential.

Your observations for other states are noted.
Thanks for the indept analysis

How many of the 2 million registered voters have collected their PVCs. Most of the young people that registered in Abia were students who have since left the state for better economic prospect. Some of the are ardent followers of Nnamdi KANU. There are more posters of no election in Abia than buhari and Atiku posters combined . then some will not turn up because of the poor performance of the ikpeazu govt in Abia. Peter Obi is not a huge unifying factor in Abia. Apga and APC members in Abia will vote for Buhari

chozzy:



Enugu, Abia and Imo have about 2m registered voters each.

Anambra has about 2.4m while Ebonyi has 1.4

what i know is that buhari will not get upto 200 thousand votes in all 5 south east states.

Poanan:


Honestly I will suprised if Atiku is declared the winner. Jonathan lost cos he wanted to lose.

Wao, bro, this your comment has weight. It's pregnant with so many things

chozzy:
2019 presidential election results will be very close. The table below is my candit prediction without political inclinations and baring in mind Buhari's incumbency factor and a promise of a free and fair election.

Incumbent president Buhari is projected to emerge victorious in more than half the states, but trails Mr Abubakar in total votes . He will gain more votes in SS and SE than he did in 2015 but this will not be enough to offset those Mr Abubakar will gain in Mr Buhari's former strongholds of NW, NE and NC. Mr Buhari is however, projected to win all SW states but with minimal margins.

Currently, Atiku Abubakar has a slight edge but must work harder and use the remaining week to widen his victory margins. From the Nigerian experience, when results are close the incumbent wins. It's not yet Uhuru for Mr Abubakar.

total votes cast in Rivers wont be up to 700k. Bookmark my post

Guzel:

How many of the 2 million registered voters have collected their PVCs. Most of the young people that registered in Abia were students who have since left the state for better economic prospect. Some of the are ardent followers of Nnamdi KANU. There are more posters of no election in Abia than buhari and Atiku posters combined . then some will not turn up because of the poor performance of the ikpeazu govt in Abia. Peter Obi is not a huge unifying factor in Abia. Apga and APC members in Abia will vote for Buhari

stop lying to yourself. Buhari will lose woefully in south east. Which apga people will vote for buhari? Igbos see buhari as a plague.

chozzy:




Note that Rivers has about 3.2m registered voters oo

Yes and 2.5 million pvc holders mostly non indigenes who do not come out but pdp usually use federalmight to inflate figures.this was exposed during the 2016 rerun where only 600k voted.

fyneguy:


total votes cast in Rivers wont be up to 700k. Bookmark my post

With massive rigging,it will reach 1.5 million but in a free and fair manner,it wont reach 2 million same as in delta and and akwa ibom..

9jaArea:
I don't think any SE state will have above 600k votes for both candidates combined.

OP wake up Atiku will not win or get a 50/50 in Adamawa also save this post Atiku is not winning Benue.

Lol dreamer!! Anambra one had over 600k votes during the last presidential elections.You must be deluded.

izombie:
what i know is that buhari will not get upto 200 thousand votes in all 5 south east states.

He will get up to 500,000 while atiku wont exceed 2.4 million.

PaChukwudi44:

Lol dreamer!! Anambra one had over 600k votes during the last presidential elections.You must be deluded.

But in all their guber polls,they never exceeded 500k.

senatordave1:

With massive rigging,it will reach 1.5 million but in a free and fair manner,it wont reach 2 million same as in delta and and akwa ibom..

Lol massive rigging? You people play too much.The earlier you realize buhari is going home the better for you

chozzy:
2019 presidential election results will be very close. The table below is my candit prediction without political inclinations and baring in mind Buhari's incumbency factor and a promise of a free and fair election.

Incumbent president Buhari is projected to emerge victorious in more than half the states, but trails Mr Abubakar in total votes . He will gain more votes in SS and SE than he did in 2015 but this will not be enough to offset those Mr Abubakar will gain in Mr Buhari's former strongholds of NW, NE and NC. Mr Buhari is however, projected to win all SW states but with minimal margins.

Currently, Atiku Abubakar has a slight edge but must work harder and use the remaining week to widen his victory margins. From the Nigerian experience, when results are close the incumbent wins. It's not yet Uhuru for Mr Abubakar.

Op u wan make thunder fire u ba?Who go vote for Atiku in Ogun state?Give the stupid thief 10,000 pere

senatordave1:

But in all their guber polls,they never exceeded 500k.

Presidential polls always generate huge voter turnout.

Guzel:

How many of the 2 million registered voters have collected their PVCs. Most of the young people that registered in Abia were students who have since left the state for better economic prospect. Some of the are ardent followers of Nnamdi KANU. There are more posters of no election in Abia than buhari and Atiku posters combined . then some will not turn up because of the poor performance of the ikpeazu govt in Abia. Peter Obi is not a huge unifying factor in Abia. Apga and APC members in Abia will vote for Buhari

Lol, a friend said something similar to this few days ago

Guzel:
Wrong. What's ur margin of error
Did you consider the voting patterns of previous polls.
I can fault many errors in this poll.
1) Abia cannot register more than 500k votes. Abia north will vote APC because of orji uzor kalu and Uche ogah. Abia central will cast protest vote against PDP with support from Alex Otti. PDP will do well in Abia south where the governor comes from but Aba will not vote PDP. They rather stay at home. Nnamdi KANU will play a big role in Abia. In fact the only south east state that will produce close go 700k is Anambra state. The obiano factor is strong for APC here. Remember in the last election APC had more votes than PDP despite peter obi factor. Yes I know politics is local but the APC won't be humiliated as you posted. The Ubas, Nwoye, Ngige, Catholic vs Anglican fight which obi started there will get votes for APC. In Ebonyi APC will do well. In imo whatever the turnout is, PDP cannot defeat APC with more than 40k votes. Orlu wll vote APC. PDP will do well only in owerri zone. PDP will win Enugu convincly because no APC strongman there however, gov ugwuanyi will not stump for Atiku.


In south south, Akwaiobom is 55 to PDP 45 to APC. Delta believes that keeping Atiku away from Aso rock is the surest way to send okowa home. Warri will vote APC, ogboru, Omo Agege, utomi, uduaghan, and the people that claim to be mainstream APC will work for buhari seriously plus Ayiri.
Cross River and Rivers are not for APC but that margin of 1 margin for Atiku won't be there in Rivers. Edo can't be 5050

I can see you playing safe in kwara, Adamawa and Benue. APC will win those States.
How can bayelsa produce more votes than Ekiti. Voting pattern in these states will correct your mistakes there. Atiku 200k in kastina is bonaza. Your Oyo result is not tenable even that of Lagos.
Margin of error here should be more than -10 percent.
My opinion tho

This is a sensible analysis.

Buhari vs atiku share kogi 50/50?


The op is senseless

PaChukwudi44:

Presidential polls always generate huge voter turnout.

Yes theoretically but in practice its a lot.there's Noway people will be more interested in presidents polls than local polls,its not possible.intact,if you check the north and the west,presidentisl and guber polls get almost same turnout or guber even gets more.its in the ss,se where pdp inflates presidential results...

ll

To the people boasting of rigging and federal might.I hope you realize no one has a monopoly over rigging.No one knows for sure INEC allegiance until that day

PaChukwudi44:

Presidential polls always generate huge voter turnout.

Yea, my thoughts too

Pls don't run away after next Week, because I want you to analyse how kwakwaso and tambuwal were able to deliver thief atiku

Blackfriday:
A good analysis, i have always projected a good show for pdp in NE and NW will give them victory. They might not win in this region but will surely cut the margin to a reasonable degree. They knew what they wanted and fought hard to win tambuwale and the RED cap commander back to their fold and for me that is the biggest blow for the ruling party. Believe it or not pdp might end up winning Kano, kaduna and sokoto.

Landslide victory for Atiku is sure.

Atiku is a go goal

izombie:
stop lying to yourself. Buhari will lose woefully in south east. Which apga people will vote for buhari? Igbos see buhari as a plague.

that is what you think ,
And it was you people that has always divided this country with your hatred for buhari since 2003 without offending anyone in east before, just because he hate corruption, this same reason makes every one in nigeria to hate idiotic pigs of biafra

chozzy:
2019 presidential election results will be very close. The table below is my candit prediction without political inclinations and baring in mind Buhari's incumbency factor and a promise of a free and fair election.

Incumbent president Buhari is projected to emerge victorious in more than half the states, but trails Mr Abubakar in total votes . He will gain more votes in SS and SE than he did in 2015 but this will not be enough to offset those Mr Abubakar will gain in Mr Buhari's former strongholds of NW, NE and NC. Mr Buhari is however, projected to win all SW states but with minimal margins.

Currently, Atiku Abubakar has a slight edge but must work harder and use the remaining week to widen his victory margins. From the Nigerian experience, when results are close the incumbent wins. It's not yet Uhuru for Mr Abubakar.

1. ABIA... Buhari will not do well here, but what you dont know is the those who like Alex Otti of APGA will most likely not vote PDP, if Atiku wins, the momentum for the guber race in 2 weeks time will be with okezie ikpeazu. Again, there is no way in this world is Abia turning out more than 400-450k votes in total.
PDP - 235,000. APC - 87,000.

2. ADAMAWA. Buhari win defeat Atiku in Adamawa. You may not like it, but thats the truth.
PDP- 300k. APC - 450k.

4. ANAMBRA - I laff at your Anambra prediction, i was at Anambra during the last election, I can swear that the number of people that voted that day were not up to 300k overall, but PDP recorded 660k votes, that will never happen. First Anambra will not record more than 400k-450k votes. Check the pattern of all the governorship elections in the state. Willie Obiano and Victor Umeh has collapsed APGA into APC for the presidential race, with his eye on the 2022 governorship election. Tony Nwoye from Anambra north is the APC national presidential youth cordinator. That guy is very very popular in Ayamelum, Anambra east and west LGAs, his political godfather Arthur Eze controls Njikoka and Dunukofia, these are chronic vote buyers, they will surely deliver, u am very certain. Andy Uba will run PDP very close in Anambra south.

PDP. 211k APC.- 98k, APGA and others - 25k.

5. BAUCHI - you must be dreaming with that your numbers. PDP will not score up to 25% here. Mark this
PDP- 200k. APC. 1.1 million

6.
You are correct on Bayelsa. Though i doubt if APC can score up to 80k.

9. CROSSRIVER.
Your percentage might be ok but i dont see, crossriver turning out that number of voter.
PDP - 400k APC 100k.

11. EBONYI. There wont be more than 300k votes here.
PDP. 200k APC 80k.

15. GOMBE. Buhari will Edge Atiku here.

PDP. 200k APC 300k.

16. IMO. LOL!!!! You make me laff here, you visits twitter a lot.
PDP 300k APC. 200k

19. KANO. seriously.
PDP. - 500k APC - 1.9million.

26. NIGER. where are you getting your info from for Gods Sake? You dont know Niger. This is the state Atiku will not score 20%.

APC - 750k. PDP. 120k.

30. OYO. You are dreaming.
APC- 550k PDP. 250k.

32. RIVERS . What gave you the impression that 1.3million people will vote in rivers? You forgot Amaechi is from Rivers state, check recent elections.
PDP. 500k. APC 350k.

33. Sokoto. Keep deceiving yourself.
PDP. 200k APC 650k.

34. TARABA. this will be very very very close. PDP will be heavily shocked here..

Overall Buhari will defeat Atiku with over 5million votes. Take this to the bank

chozzy:



Lol, a friend said something similar to this few days ago

I like your analysis,the best by a pdp fan for a long time but you betrayed the direction by forcefully allocating figures.you stopped flowing with the direction,buhari should have more votes.there's no way buhari will win more states and have less voters considering that his bases has more voters plus he has more rigging capacity.intact,he can even win less states but still lead by total votes.

Am OK with the south west results except that i feel that buhari will win oyo by a bigger margin and iondo by a smaller margin.there's no way atiku will get more votes than gej in the south east and south south.gej had 350k in abia,atiku wont exceed that plus apc wont get up to 100k.you should allocate figures for apga in anambra and imo.i dont see pdp getting more than 400k in imo now that apga arent with them with pdp even weaker.enugu wont exceed 500k.ebonyi wont exceed 250k,that is if ipob doesn't strike in the east.
am okay with akwa ibom and edo results but pdp should get close to a milliom in delta while apc should get close to a 500k in rivers.pdp can't get more than 400k gej got in cross river,this is my state.bayelsa wont give more than 300k votes,their son isn't contesting.

Buhari should get close to a million in niger state.am okay with plateau and benue and nasarawa and kogi.intact apc might narrowly win nasarawa.

Atiku wont get more than 100k in zamfara,pdp is non existent here.expect buhari to have at least 1.5 million votes in katsina,this is his state,expect inflated figures.expect at least 2 million in kano.pdp have never gotten more than 500k in kano.buhari should get over a million in kaduna.he should also get over a million in jigawa.he should also get close to a million in sokoto.pdp is weak in kebbi.forget the north west,there will be massive inflations for buhari here.
Borno should give buhari close to a million and over 500k in yobe Atiku wont get more than 100k there.expect over a million votes in bauchi for buhari.i see pdp winning taraba and adamawa by not more than 100k margin.buhari has always won gombe and will still do so.atiku cant get more than 200k here.

senatordave1:

Yes theoretically but in practice its a lot.there's Noway people will be more interested in presidents polls than local polls,its not possible.intact,if you check the north and the west,presidentisl and guber polls get almost same turnout or guber even gets more.its in the ss,se where pdp inflates presidential results...

Bro, stop demonising your zone.
There's far more rigging among the core Northern states than your South.

I remember when Goodluck Jonathan was interviewed about the conduct of the 2015 elections and he singled out Buhari's 2m votes in Kano.
He wondered why Buhari could score 2m votes while the total votes of the three Kano Senators in an election that held same day and time as the
presidential elections was less than a million.

senatordave1:

Yes theoretically but in practice its a lot.there's Noway people will be more interested in presidents polls than local polls,its not possible.intact,if you check the north and the west,presidentisl and guber polls get almost same turnout or guber even gets more.its in the ss,se where pdp inflates presidential results...

So Kano and katsina votes of 1.9m and 1.3m were not inflated but Anambra votes of 600k was? You must be high on kwale or oshogbo w**d.

BTW people are desperate to vote out Buhari.Very very desperate

Stopped reading when you wrote Orlu will vote APC. You must be a big joker.

Guzel:
Wrong. What's ur margin of error
Did you consider the voting patterns of previous polls.
I can fault many errors in this poll.
1) Abia cannot register more than 500k votes. Abia north will vote APC because of orji uzor kalu and Uche ogah. Abia central will cast protest vote against PDP with support from Alex Otti. PDP will do well in Abia south where the governor comes from but Aba will not vote PDP. They rather stay at home. Nnamdi KANU will play a big role in Abia. In fact the only south east state that will produce close go 700k is Anambra state. The obiano factor is strong for APC here. Remember in the last election APC had more votes than PDP despite peter obi factor. Yes I know politics is local but the APC won't be humiliated as you posted. The Ubas, Nwoye, Ngige, Catholic vs Anglican fight which obi started there will get votes for APC. In Ebonyi APC will do well. In imo whatever the turnout is, PDP cannot defeat APC with more than 40k votes. Orlu wll vote APC. PDP will do well only in owerri zone. PDP will win Enugu convincly because no APC strongman there however, gov ugwuanyi will not stump for Atiku.


In south south, Akwaiobom is 55 to PDP 45 to APC. Delta believes that keeping Atiku away from Aso rock is the surest way to send okowa home. Warri will vote APC, ogboru, Omo Agege, utomi, uduaghan, and the people that claim to be mainstream APC will work for buhari seriously plus Ayiri.
Cross River and Rivers are not for APC but that margin of 1 margin for Atiku won't be there in Rivers. Edo can't be 5050

I can see you playing safe in kwara, Adamawa and Benue. APC will win those States.
How can bayelsa produce more votes than Ekiti. Voting pattern in these states will correct your mistakes there. Atiku 200k in kastina is bonaza. Your Oyo result is not tenable even that of Lagos.
Margin of error here should be more than -10 percent.
My opinion tho

PaChukwudi44:
To the people boasting of rigging and federal might.I hope you realize no one has a monopoly over rigging.No one knows for sure INEC allegiance until that day

Most rigging will be done without inec,pdp can only rig in ss,se.

Guzel:

How many of the 2 million registered voters have collected their PVCs. Most of the young people that registered in Abia were students who have since left the state for better economic prospect. Some of the are ardent followers of Nnamdi KANU. There are more posters of no election in Abia than buhari and Atiku posters combined . then some will not turn up because of the poor performance of the ikpeazu govt in Abia. Peter Obi is not a huge unifying factor in Abia. Apga and APC members in Abia will vote for Buhari

PDP supporters are not smart at all, they thought everybody in igboland give a Bleep about peter obi. People from Abia, Imo and Ebonyi dont even bother on who peter obi is. ANAMBRA and imo will cause a huge shock for PDP.

fyneguy:


total votes cast in Rivers wont be up to 700k. Bookmark my post

Dont mind them. I am seeing 500k sef

senatordave1:

Most rigging will be done without inec,pdp can only rig in ss,se.

you think this is 2015 when APC had the north on lockdown.Wake up dude this is 2019!!!