Well done @op. This is a near perfect analysis, but Atikus victory margin would be bigger (close to 1million).

Strengthening operational and legal instruments to discipline members of the Armed
Forces over confirmed cases of human rights violations – FAILED
No serious action has been taken by the government to discipline errant officers and men of the Nigerian Armed Forces in the face of gross human rights abuses. Instead, the Presidency has always defended the Armed Forces anytime international bodies like Amnesty International,
Human Rights Watch etc, released reports indicting the military of rights violations.
60. Free maternal and child healthcare services – FAILED
The Federal Government has not initiated free maternal and childcare services in any part of the country.The first revelation that all is not well was during his first and only presidential media chat, where he said he would.not devalue the naira against the French Francs and German Mark! These are currencies that ceased to be legal tender 16yrs prior to that media briefing!
Ever since, his handlers decided to quarantine the president from addressing Nigerians so that his condition would not be glaring to all.In Delta State:
President Buhari handed over his party's flag to Great Ogboru, calling him the APC presidential candidate. On being corrected, he repeated the blunder, this time calling him a senatorial candidate. He only got it right on the third attempt.The Tradermoni scam has already gulped well over 100 billion naira so far.
The several alphabetic acronym groups soliciting for Buhari's re-election is also another drain on public funds.
Crowd rentage fees at APC rallies amounts to as much as 5,000 naira per head in the southwest to as low as 500 naira in the north. These also are coming from public funds.
Then there's also the monies earmarked to bribe several factions of cultural groups plus that used in bribing Oyoruba Obas and northern Amirs which is also running into billions.
Monies will eventually be doled to thugs and security men alike on election day proper which will also be running in billions.
And you should not forget the monies giving to the likes of Sowore and co to run their parallel vote dividing fake presidential campaigns and that which has been set aside for them when they congratulate Buhari on rigging his way back to Aso Rock.

baliyubla:
Well done @op. This is a near perfect analysis, but Atikus victory margin would be bigger (close to 1million).

Stop watching too much cartoons


You beginning to believe unrealistic things

Buhari cannot draw in FCT with Atiku.

Anything to make you guys happy.

Same as you are always happy when winning with Likes, Shares and Retweets on social media

Malaria day dreaming analysis..

Wrong. What's ur margin of error
Did you consider the voting patterns of previous polls.
I can fault many errors in this poll.
1) Abia cannot register more than 500k votes. Abia north will vote APC because of orji uzor kalu and Uche ogah. Abia central will cast protest vote against PDP with support from Alex Otti. PDP will do well in Abia south where the governor comes from but Aba will not vote PDP. They rather stay at home. Nnamdi KANU will play a big role in Abia. In fact the only south east state that will produce close go 700k is Anambra state. The obiano factor is strong for APC here. Remember in the last election APC had more votes than PDP despite peter obi factor. Yes I know politics is local but the APC won't be humiliated as you posted. The Ubas, Nwoye, Ngige, Catholic vs Anglican fight which obi started there will get votes for APC. In Ebonyi APC will do well. In imo whatever the turnout is, PDP cannot defeat APC with more than 40k votes. Orlu wll vote APC. PDP will do well only in owerri zone. PDP will win Enugu convincly because no APC strongman there however, gov ugwuanyi will not stump for Atiku.


In south south, Akwaiobom is 55 to PDP 45 to APC. Delta believes that keeping Atiku away from Aso rock is the surest way to send okowa home. Warri will vote APC, ogboru, Omo Agege, utomi, uduaghan, and the people that claim to be mainstream APC will work for buhari seriously plus Ayiri.
Cross River and Rivers are not for APC but that margin of 1 margin for Atiku won't be there in Rivers. Edo can't be 5050

I can see you playing safe in kwara, Adamawa and Benue. APC will win those States.
How can bayelsa produce more votes than Ekiti. Voting pattern in these states will correct your mistakes there. Atiku 200k in kastina is bonaza. Your Oyo result is not tenable even that of Lagos.
Margin of error here should be more than -10 percent.
My opinion tho

This a near perfect analysis. But i dnt see atiku wining nasarawa or edo. Op buhari wil win again. Forget fulani factor. Notherners do not play the race card.

So u think a dead APC will produce 200k votes in Wike's Rivers, and 1.5 in Kano, guy even Buhari knows he's a complete goner .
I see a 7 million gap.

This is going to be closest election margin ever...

atiku might win BUT!

Ray97:
This a near perfect analysis. But i dnt see atiku wining nasarawa or edo. Op buhari wil win again. Forget fulani factor. Notherners do not play the race card.

OK, noted

chozzy:
2019 presidential election results will be very close. The table below is my candit prediction without political inclinations and baring in mind Buhari's incumbency factor and a promise of a free and fair election.

Incumbent president Buhari is projected to emerge victorious in more than half the states, but trails Mr Abubakar in total votes . He will gain more votes in SS and SE than he did in 2015 but this will not be enough to offset those Mr Abubakar will gain in Mr Buhari's former strongholds of NW, NE and NC. Mr Buhari is however, projected to win all SW states but with minimal margins.

Currently, Atiku Abubakar has a slight edge but must work harder and use the remaining week to widen his victory margins. From the Nigerian experience, when results are close the incumbent wins. It's not yet Uhuru for Mr Abubakar.

Rivers won't record more than 500k votes overall.the era of result writing is over

@OP, just 6 more days to go.... enjoy your fantasies.

alen4smith:
Rivers won't record more than 500k votes overall.the era of result writing is over

Note that Rivers has about 3.2m registered voters oo

And so SHALL IT BE. somebody shout AMEN!!!

Although u got the correct outcome. Ur apc figures for abia, delta and rivers na cant happen. Divide it by 3

Guzel:
Wrong. What's ur margin of error
Did you consider the voting patterns of previous polls.
I can fault many errors in this poll.
1) Abia cannot register more than 500k votes. Abia north will vote APC because of orji uzor kalu and Uche ogah. Abia central will cast protest vote against PDP with support from Alex Otti. PDP will do well in Abia south where the governor comes from but Aba will not vote PDP. They rather stay at home. Nnamdi KANU will play a big role in Abia. In fact the only south east state that will produce close go 700k is Anambra state. The obiano factor is strong for APC here. Remember in the last election APC had more votes than PDP despite peter obi factor. Yes I know politics is local but the APC won't be humiliated as you posted. The Ubas, Nwoye, Ngige, Catholic vs Anglican fight which obi started there will get votes for APC. In Ebonyi APC will do well. In imo whatever the turnout is, PDP cannot defeat APC with more than 40k votes. Orlu wll vote APC. PDP will do well only in owerri zone. PDP will win Enugu convincly because no APC strongman there however, gov ugwuanyi will not stump for Atiku.


In south south, Akwaiobom is 55 to PDP 45 to APC. Delta believes that keeping Atiku away from Aso rock is the surest way to send okowa home. Warri will vote APC, ogboru, Omo Agege, utomi, uduaghan, and the people that claim to be mainstream APC will work for buhari seriously plus Ayiri.
Cross River and Rivers are not for APC but that margin of 1 margin for Atiku won't be there in Rivers. Edo can't be 5050

I can see you playing safe in kwara, Adamawa and Benue. APC will win those States.
How can bayelsa produce more votes than Ekiti. Voting pattern in these states will correct your mistakes there. Atiku 200k in kastina is bonaza. Your Oyo result is not tenable even that of Lagos.
Margin of error here should be more than -10 percent.
My opinion tho

Abia has about 2m registered voters and if about 700k can't turn up for voting because of the factors you have listed here, then we have a serious case in Nigeria.
One of the factors I considered was that Peter Obi being Igbo should motivate his tribesmen in all SE states to vote. And yea, something tells me Abia will turn out more votes for APC in other elections except Presidential.

Your observations for other states are noted.
Thanks for the indept analysis

chozzy:
2019 presidential election results will be very close. The table below is my candit prediction without political inclinations and baring in mind Buhari's incumbency factor and a promise of a free and fair election.

Incumbent president Buhari is projected to emerge victorious in more than half the states, but trails Mr Abubakar in total votes . He will gain more votes in SS and SE than he did in 2015 but this will not be enough to offset those Mr Abubakar will gain in Mr Buhari's former strongholds of NW, NE and NC. Mr Buhari is however, projected to win all SW states but with minimal margins.

Currently, Atiku Abubakar has a slight edge but must work harder and use the remaining week to widen his victory margins. From the Nigerian experience, when results are close the incumbent wins. It's not yet Uhuru for Mr Abubakar.

you try small, but na Sowore go win though I don forget the party wey he dey, somebody should remind me pls.

You were too generous to Buhari as swear. So you believe that Adamawa result even Benue?

SouthEastFacts:
You were too generous to Buhari as swear. So you believe that Adamawa result even Benue?

He's the incumbent president

I don't think any SE state will have above 600k votes for both candidates combined.

OP wake up Atiku will not win or get a 50/50 in Adamawa also save this post Atiku is not winning Benue.

With this there would be no winner yet.... Because void vote will be more than the margin. That will lead us to another Osun state scenario.

Hope predicted 50 /50 for kwara despite the Ole chant we see every day!

chozzy:
2019 presidential election results will be very close. The table below is my candit prediction without political inclinations and baring in mind Buhari's incumbency factor and a promise of a free and fair election.

Incumbent president Buhari is projected to emerge victorious in more than half the states, but trails Mr Abubakar in total votes . He will gain more votes in SS and SE than he did in 2015 but this will not be enough to offset those Mr Abubakar will gain in Mr Buhari's former strongholds of NW, NE and NC. Mr Buhari is however, projected to win all SW states but with minimal margins.

Currently, Atiku Abubakar has a slight edge but must work harder and use the remaining week to widen his victory margins. From the Nigerian experience, when results are close the incumbent wins. It's not yet Uhuru for Mr Abubakar.

Honestly I will suprised if Atiku is declared the winner. Jonathan lost cos he wanted to lose.

A good analysis, i have always projected a good show for pdp in NE and NW will give them victory. They might not win in this region but will surely cut the margin to a reasonable degree. They knew what they wanted and fought hard to win tambuwale and the RED cap commander back to their fold and for me that is the biggest blow for the ruling party. Believe it or not pdp might end up winning Kano, kaduna and sokoto.

9jaArea:
I don't think any SE state will have above 600k votes for both candidates combined.

OP wake up Atiku will not win or get a 50/50 in Adamawa also save this post Atiku is not winning Benue.

u sure u can bet ur life on this. Adamawa and most especially benue is on the kitty for pdp

Nice one OP

chozzy:
2019 presidential election results will be very close. The table below is my candit prediction without political inclinations and baring in mind Buhari's incumbency factor and a promise of a free and fair election.

Incumbent president Buhari is projected to emerge victorious in more than half the states, but trails Mr Abubakar in total votes . He will gain more votes in SS and SE than he did in 2015 but this will not be enough to offset those Mr Abubakar will gain in Mr Buhari's former strongholds of NW, NE and NC. Mr Buhari is however, projected to win all SW states but with minimal margins.

Currently, Atiku Abubakar has a slight edge but must work harder and use the remaining week to widen his victory margins. From the Nigerian experience, when results are close the incumbent wins. It's not yet Uhuru for Mr Abubakar.

This prediction was revealed to you. Spot on.

9jaArea:
I don't think any SE state will have above 600k votes for both candidates combined.

OP wake up Atiku will not win or get a 50/50 in Adamawa also save this post Atiku is not winning Benue.

Enugu, Abia and Imo have about 2m registered voters each.

Anambra has about 2.4m while Ebonyi has 1.4

I don't understand why zombies are so confident that atiku will not win adamawa. Do they think adamawa people are stupid? You predict that buhari will win his own state but atiku will not win his. You guys are jokers walahi.
Atiku will win adamawa hands down and with a big margin