Below is a recent analysis of the pdp presidential election primaries

Abia
Estimated No. of Delegates: 90
Governor Theodore Orji, who many feel was dragged into PDP to purposely checkmate Orji Uzor Kalu and IBB, will lead the state to President Goodluck Jonathan. In addition, other key figures like Ojo Maduekwe have already teamed up with the president’s campaign team. Senator Uche Chukwumerije, who recently joined the ruling party, is not with Jonathan.
Verdict: Strongly Jonathan

Adamawa
Estimated No. of Delegates: 94
A serious battle is expected to be fought between Jonathan, Atiku and Babangida. So far, some of the heavy weight politicians with considerable influence have declared their support for the three candidates. While the likes of Bamanga Tukur and Jonathan Zwingina are working for Jonathan, Professor Jibril Aminu is spearheading the IBB campaign, while Governor Murtala Nyako has settled his differences with Atiku and will likely root for his kinsman.
Verdict: Mostly Atiku

Akwa Ibom
Estimated No. of Delegates: 116
Another state where Jonathan should have a clean sweep. Governor Godswill Akpabio, along with Senator Bob Effiong, has been among the most vocal supporters of the president, and showed as much when he led thousands of his supporters to Abuja last week for the Jonathan declaration.
Verdict: Strongly Jonathan

Anambra
Est. No. of Delegates: 81
With the likes of elder statesman Alex Ekwueme serving in the president’s campaign council, Jonathan will have an edge over others in Anambra. However, there are hints in some quarters that former CBN Governor, Professor Chukwuma Soludo, is working for one of the Northern candidates.
Verdict: Undecided

Bauchi
Estimated No. of Delegates: 106
Both Governor Isa Yuguda and FCT Minister Bala Muhammed have done extensive footwork to garner support for the president. But the delegates are pro-North and pro-zoning. It is still very difficult to know how the state will vote.
Verdict: Undecided

Bayelsa
Estimated No. of Delegates: 58
Jonathan’s home state will vote for him considering the fact that many of the state’s top politicians, irrespective of political affiliation, have vowed to support his candidature.
Verdict: Strongly Jonathan

Benue
Estimated No. of Delegates: 118
Despite strong opposition from the likes of Senator Iorchia Ayu, Jonathan has made strong headway in Benue courtesy of former PDP national chairman Barnabas Gemade and Governor Gabriel Suswam.
Verdict: Strongly Jonathan

Borno
Estimated No. of Delegates: 64
From all indications, any candidate supported by Kashim Imam will carry the day. Indications are that Imam is for IBB. Despite the presence of key Jonathan supporters like Abba Aji and Ahmed Gulak, both Babangida and Atiku have made in-roads in the state.
Verdict: Mainly IBB

Cross River
Estimated No. of Delegates: 95
Another of the states where Jonathan is expected to carry the day. Both Governor Liyel Imoke and the entire PDP machinery in the state have publicly declared their support for the president.
Verdict: Strongly Jonathan

Delta
Estimated No. of Delegates: 114
After months of high-level discussion and serious politicking, Jonathan has made a headway in his effort to get support from Delta State. Information available indicates that both pro- and anti-Uduaghan elements in the state PDP have agreed to work for the emergence of Jonathan and the success of Uduaghan in his second term bid. Babangida has some sympathy courtesy of his late wife Maryam who was from the state.
Verdict: Strongly Jonathan

Ekiti
Estimated No. of Delegates: 78
Ekiti will go to Jonathan. So far, no candidate has made any headway in the state, and the President is expected to have a field-day among delegates following the South-west endorsement.
Verdict: Mainly Jonathan

Ebonyi
Estimated No. of Delegates: 74
Former Governor Sam Egwu is supporting Babangida but his successor and sitting Governor Martins Elechi appears to be in control of things in the state PDP. Elechi is a known Jonathan supporter, as such will likely deliver the state to the president. But don’t rule out the Egwu factor.
Verdict: Mainly Jonathan

Edo
Estimated No. of Delegates: 67
All the main warring factions battling for the control of PDP in Edo have now sheathed their swords and are working for Jonathan. Incidentally, leaders of the groups, Tony Anenih and Sam Ogbemudia, are all part of Jonathan’s presidential campaign council. Other notable politicians working for Jonathan in Edo is guber aspirant Kenneth Imasuagbon.
Verdict: Strongly Jonathan

Enugu
Estimated No. of Delegates: 95
Even though Governor Sullivan Chime is fully in support of Jonathan’s ambition, other key and powerful blocs, led by the two Nnamanis - Ken and Chimaroke - have different agendas for 2011. Ken Nnamani is rumoured to be the person who will be Babangida’s running mate.
Verdict: Mainly Jonathan

Gombe
Estimated No. of Delegates: 74
The show put up by Governor Danjuma Goje during the president’s declaration is viewed by many as not convincing enough. He was interested in the race and is believed to be more comfortable with Saraki now.
Verdict: Still undecided

Imo
Estimated No. of Delegates: 114
The state House of Assembly recently passed a motion adopting Jonathan as its candidate in next year’s election. Despite that, there are doubts over the commitment of Governor Ikedi Ohakim to the Jonathan cause. He is said to be considering an offer to serve as vice-president to one of the Northern candidates.
Verdict: Still up for grabs

Jigawa
Estimated No. of Delegates: 125
Since losing his bid to be named vice-president last May, Governor Sule Lamido has been antagonistic to the president’s aspiration. Significantly, the recent arrest of government officials by the EFCC has increased the resentment for Jonathan in the state. The battle for Jigawa delegates will be strictly between Babangida and Gusau.
Verdict: Mainly Gusau

Kaduna
Estimated No. of Delegates: 117
The state where Vice-President Namadi Sambo comes from will almost certainly vote for him. In addition, both the state PDP and the House of Assembly have endorsed Jonathan and Governor Patrick Yakowa for the 2011 election.
Verdict: Mostly Jonathan
Katsina
Estimated No. of Delegates: 160
Babangida is in control of things in Katsina, even though Governor Ibrahim Shema is the North-west co-ordinator for Jonathan’s campaign.
Verdict: Mostly IBB

Kano
Estimated No. of Delegates: 111
While former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso is a known Jonathan supporter, the likes of former Speaker of the House of Representatives Ghali Umar Na’abba have teamed up with Babangida. The sentiment for zoning is still strong in Kano.
Verdict: Could go with Jonathan or IBB

Kebbi
Estimated No. of Delegates: 118
Governor Saidu Dakingari is rumoured to be working for Saraki who is believed to have entered some form of agreement with him. The former military president will have Kebbi even though General Aliyu Muhammed Gusau will have a strong show among delegates. Saraki is believed to enjoy a good relationship with the governor.
Verdict: Mainly Saraki

Kogi
Estimated No. of Delegates: 97
As pointed out by Governor Ibrahim Idris at the Jonathan declaration, the state has agreed to support the president intoto. Saraki may have some votes here, being a friend of the state.
Verdict: Mainly Jonathan

Kwara
Estimated No. of Delegates: 87
There is only one candidate here – Governor Bukola Saraki.
Verdict: Strongly Saraki

Lagos
Estimated No. of Delegates: 70
Lagos will be a three-horse race between Atiku, Babangida and Jonathan. The president has slight edge over the other two, and is expected to carry the day.
Verdict: Mainly Jonathan

Nasarawa
Estimated No. of Delegates: 69
Former Governor Abdullahi Adamu has teamed up with Babangida, but the state PDP and Governor Aliyu Akwe Doma have publicly declared their support for Jonathan. The president has slight edge over his main rival.
Verdict: Mainly Jonathan

Niger
Estimated No. of Delegates: 107
Babangida, of course.
Verdict: Strongly IBB

Ogun
Estimated No. of Delegates: 105
The Obasanjo and Daniel factor will tilt the balance in favour of Jonathan, even though there are hints that Speaker Dimeji Bankole may support one of the Northern candidates, possibly Babangida.
Verdict: Mainly Jonathan

Ondo
Estimated No. of Delegates: 81
With former Governor Olusegun Agagu in control of affairs, Ondo will vote for Jonathan, but Saraki also has a leg in there.
Verdict: Mainly Jonathan
Osun
Estimated No. of Delegates: 123
Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola’s support for babangida is viewed as the main reason for the establishment of a parallel structure for the PDP in the state. The battle for Osun will be a straight fight between Jonathan and Babangida.
Verdict: Could swing the way of Jonathan or IBB

Oyo
Estimated No. of Delegates: 154
Though many of the loyalists of late strongman of Ibadan politics Lamidi Adedibu, have been working for Babangida, it does appear as if Jonathan has the edge courtesy of the support he enjoys from Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala and the South-west endorsement.
Verdict: Jonathan slightly ahead.

Rivers
Estimated No. of Delegates: 113
Until recently, where delegates from Rivers will vote has been unclear. However, following last weekend’s declaration by Jonathan, the entire state PDP has vowed to go with the president. Babangida may get a few votes courtesy of Peter Odili.
Verdict: Tilting towards Jonathan

Sokoto
Estimated No. of Delegates: 94
Gusau is expected to give Babangida a run for his money. But Saraki is likely to get a large number of votes from the state.
Verdict: Mainly Gusau

Taraba
Estimated No. of Delegates: 87
The state will go to Jonathan, from all indications, but Atiku will do well there too. Gen. TY Danjuma is behind Jonathan.
Verdict: Mainly Jonathan

Yobe
Estimated No. of Delegates: 50
Even though Adamu Maina Waziri and Usman Albashir are working for Jonathan, Ciroma is still respected in the state. He’s for IBB.
Verdict: Mainly IBB

Zamfara
Estimated No. of Delegates: 71
Zamfara is for Gusau. He will face little opposition from his friend, Babangida. Governor Aliyu Shinkafi is son-in-law to both Gusau and Babangida.
Verdict: Mainly Gusau

FCT
Estimated No. of Delegates: 23
FCT Minister Bala Muhammed has been one of the most vocal supporters of Jonathan right from his days in the Senate. And with PDP in virtual control of all the area councils, Jonathan will have his way in Abuja.
Verdict: Strongly Jonathan

Summary
Estimated Total No. of Delegates: 3484
Jonathan (40%), Babangida (20%), Saraki (11%), Gusau (11%), Atiku (5%), undecided (13%)

@ Na so, Thats statistic is scary as it seems the ticket is still up for grabs, and all it takes is the northern Interest going for a consensus candidate and they have the ticket going by the statistics and from the same paper the publish the above, 18 wisemen have been are already on the mission to deliver its recommendation on thursday, So if the north PDP present us with IBB, then he gets the ticket ahead of jonathan, or Atiku or Gasau whose main reason for running is the ruling arrangement he had with IBB & Abacha, I want Jonathan to win the PDP Ticket, Buhari and Ribadu and others to test their might, anyone of the trio is a heap better than IBB, Atiku, Saraki and Gasau,

Moves:

@ Na so, Thats statistic is scary as it seems the ticket is still up for grabs, and all it takes is the northern Interest going for a consensus candidate and they have the ticket going by the statistics and from the same paper the publish the above, 18 wisemen have been are already on the mission to deliver its recommendation on thursday, So if the north PDP present us with IBB, then he gets the ticket ahead of jonathan, or Atiku or Gasau whose main reason for running is the ruling arrangement he had with IBB & Abacha, I want Jonathan to win the PDP Ticket, Buhari and Ribadu and others to test their might, anyone of the trio is a heap better than IBB, Atiku, Saraki and Gasau,

I agree with you , that the stats look scary but I think on a second thought it still looks good for Gej. First, if you are conversant with the "lagos state too close to call but AC has an edge" kind of pre-election analysis of Thisday for the 2007 elections , one might just look at this a very modest way of saying GEJ is very very likely to clinch the ticket.

Secondly even if the analysis is true as is, the aggregate percentage of all the northern delegates is 47% while GEJ's is 40%, the way things work politically when alliances are formed easily explains that even if the north settles for a consensus candidate say IBB, he will not be sure of polling more that 37% of the votes as certain voters that support some of these northern candidates because of personal dealings with the candidate are likely to drop out. Some will never switch votes to the consensus candidate. Some borderline states, presently in contention between, GEJ and any northern candidate would likely tilt in GEJ'S favour if his strong contender is not the chosen consensus candidate.

I still think the north's greatest undoing is in the calibre of candidates chosen for the PDP ticket. Only saraki presents what comes close to a shift from the usual which most people are tired of. But saraki has two major hurdles one of which is that he is still seen in the core north as a Yoruba man  hence  should not enjoy a slot meant for the core north, when his "brother" Olusegun barely just finished 8 yrs. Secondly in the national sphere, his father will be more of a liability,than an asset. Many will not risk seeing his father turn Nigeria into another saraki colony.

GIVE OR TAKE THE PRIMARY IS STILL GEJ'S TO LOSE.

A CLOSE LOOK AT THE STATISTICS SHOWS THAT EXCEPT A DARK HORSE COMES IN TO THE RACE JONATHAN IS LOOKING SET 4 VICTORY IMO IS MOST LIKELY TO GO JONATHAN'S WAY BAUCHI MAY BE A STALEMATE OSUN AND KANO DEPENDS ON THE THE NORTHERN CONSENSUS CANDIDATE STRONG ZONE OF INDIVIDUAL NORTHERN CONTENDERS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE VOTING OF DELEGATES FROM THE NORTH THE BATTLE MAY EVEN HAVE ENDED BEFORE GOING TO THE BATTLE GROUND

^^^^^^^^
I think so too. may be that explains why the north is resorting to threats now.

I have been waiting for an analysis like this for long. it looks close to reality. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
Much as I don't want PDP, I think their greatest mistake will be to field any candidate other then GEJ. It's easier to defeat IBB in national election than GEJ. Incumbency factor will matters, plus the fact that IBB may be popular among PDP delegates and full time politicians, but he is a hard sell among the general populace, North and South.
In any case, if there can be some agreement between Buhari and Ribadu, then even GEJ will be given a run for his incumbency factor.