EzeUche0:

And that is why when I get my degree, I will be back in Naija to partake in this economic growth.

AjanleKoko:

The figures make sense
Nigeria's economy is growing, no doubt. When you think about the fact that India is supposed to have grown by over 10% in the last three quarters consecutively, but their unemployment rate is 57% more than what they had last year, you begin to understand why people are complaining on this thread. It's not directly related. The country may make more money, but is it spending more money, or generating more income internally? Our inflation is in double digits, and the real unemployment rate is probably 30-35% (IMF thinks it's 19.7%).

Realistically, before you can have the kind of growth that will trickle down to have the effect we are hankering for, we'll have to make massive CAPEX investments into the economy, not the $2-10 billion we are seeing on a yearly basis now, but possibly in the range of $40-80 billion. I'm not talking about bourgeiose-fantasy projects like Eko Atlantic, but real major infrastructure developments, much needed roads, transportation, hospitals, agribusiness, power, etc. Just imagine the kind of jobs that a major reconstruction of all grade A highways in Nigeria, and a total overhaul of rail transportation can provide. Or mass expansion of the seaports, maybe even the development of inland waterways, dredging the Niger, building an inland seaport in Lokoja to aid North-South movement of goods. If $10bn over 10 years can create 100,000 plus jobs in telecoms, $50bn over 10 years can create maybe a million jobs, in diverse sectors.

Remember that the oil majors have cut off all CAPEX spends for now, awaiting the PIB shoe to drop. The revenues from production have increased this year, yes, but how much of that is re-invested into Nigeria as CAPEX these days?

Katsumoto:

That is because Indian has made strides in the global services industry. It is possible to increase income in the intangible output (services, patents, etc) industry without increasing employment whereas you can not increase tangible output (manufacturing, agriculture, etc). Take a look at the services dominated economy of India and the manufacturing dominated economy of China. Unemployment is falling in China and the middle class is also widening.

debosky:

The 'growth' is more due to increased oil receipts more than anything else.

Besides, we all know this 'growth' has little impact on most Nigerians. . . . massive increase in infrastructural spending (actual spending not allocations going into private pockets) will spur growth across the whole economy. The percentage increase in itself isn't of relevance on the ground.

Idi ots teaching IMF their jobs. So IMF knows not what they are saying, right?

You all gathered together still doesnt have what it takes to do what IMF does. Schmuck potatoes.

AjanleKoko:

Theoretically, let's say somehow we are able to turn off corruption like a light switch, which is impossible anyway not due to our innate greed per se but more external factors, we may break records and see growth of upwards of 20%. Just imagine if we slashed all the lawmakers' allowances by 80%, eliminate government stealing by 70%, stop governors and LG bosses from stealing their allocations, and improving IGR, we would become the 9th wonder of the world!

DeLaRue:

At Topic

I will take the figures quoted by the IMF with a pinch of salt. Mainly on the basis that statistics can be manipulated for obvious reasons. If the Nigerian economy grew by 7.4% this year, did it have a concomitant positive effect on the lives of its citizens? I doubt it. Did Nigeria grow faster than China, India, Vietnam, Brazil or South Korea? I also doubt that. The only way Nigeria could have had such a growth figure without an improvement in the lives of its citizens is if it has a services dominated economy. We know that to be false as the Nigerian economy is still heavily product/manufacturing dominated. One can argue that the telecomms sector (service) grew but it is inconceivable for the telecomms sector alone to be responsible for a growth rate of 7.4%

Bold is incorrect - sadly, the manufacturing component of our GDP has been falling gradually over d years & I believe it is now somewhere around the 25% mark - thanks mainly to the multinational companies who r still increasing investment in this area. Agriculture makes up about 55%, with services taking the rest.

Think this, most previously healthy industries have been decimated to a shadow of their former selves, or in some cases completely wiped out.

Examples:


Textile - decimated. Cant cope with escalating cost of production & piracy. Chinese are now pirating our Ankarra & with d help of crooked Customs agents are now re-importing their cheaper,poor quality versions to our market!

Tyre manufacturing - we are one of the largest Rubber producers in d world & until a few years ago, Michelin & Dunlop had major manufacturing bases in Nigeria. These were world class manufacturing plants. They were frustrated out of Nigeria. Now we export raw rubber cheaply, & re-import expensive tyres from Europe & Asia - clever huh?.

Small & medium scale manufacturing - dilapidated infrastucture, cheap (often poor quality) & illegal Chinese imports have devasted the market share of local manufacturers, rendered them uncompetitive, & many of these companies are closing down.

On a wider note, if you put 2 economists in a room & ask them d cost of producing a sachet of pure water, you will get 2 different views. Believing wholeheartedly figures reeled out by economists is misguided, particularly where the compiling institution (eg CBN) has credibility issues.

Personally, I will take a sharp knife to the 7% & reduce it by half, & hope to God that the remaining 3.5% growth was indeed achieved. This approach is crude, but being extremely cautious & suspicious in Nigeria never does any harm!

Good lord, give us double digit growth for the next ten years and keep our womens legs closed so our population is controlled

Dawdy:

Nigeria 3rd largest growing economically indeed! If it is not wrong calculation, that meas nigeria has failed seriously. Cos inspite of our economy and our resources majority of nigeria still lives in poverty. d country whare d clothseller wears rags, d nation whare d butcher eats bones. What a shame country!!!.  [table][/table]