First of all, congratulations to JEGA and Jonathan (GEJA) for conducting successful National Assembly elections.

Well from the results it is clear PDP has won this round, but it may not be time yet for Jonathan to celebrate. CPC did not perform as some people expected because the party really is all about Buhari. Everybody else in the party is just there to fill the slots, and some are lucky enough to have won. In this round, most people voted for individuals and not party because most of the CPC candidates are either unknown or disgruntled former PDP members. Taking a few states for example, in Sokoto Aliyu Wamakko, the PDP governor is so popular that PDP won all elections conducted there. In fact in 2007 Obasanjo got wind of his popularity and immediately ordered Mukhtar Shagari to step down so that Wamakko could dump ANPP for PDP. In Zamfara, influence of Yerima helped ANPP to win majority seats. The current governor was Yerimas boy before he broke ranks with him. In Kebbi, well thank God Adamu Aliero and co. of "CPC" did not win. In Katsina, Buharis hometown, CPC candidates won almost all the seats as expected. Kano did surprise me, but I know Kwankwaso of PDP performed well during his previous tenure so maybe people have missed him since he left in 2003.

However for next saturdays election, in the North the atmosphere is Buhari vs. Others. My prediction for the North is 70% Buhari, 25% Jonathan and 5% Others.
I also expect SS/SE to be at least 90% Jonathan. Hence I strongly believe South West will determine the presidential election. I expect ACN to vote for Ribadu as this will put them in a very strong position to negotiate. If Ribadu wins SW convincingly, then a runoff may be required, and this calls for some deals to be made. They can decide to make a deal with PDP and get a few ministerial positions, but they will have more power if they can help Buhari to win.

I support Buhari, but if Jonathan wins we have to support him and pray for him. His current record is not good because in my opinion he has not performed and has broken many promises. But the key is that he is less corrupt and more humble than many of our past leaders so maybe if he has security of four year tenure he will finally deliver.

Buhari is a failure. All this bluster about "Sai Buhari", CPC got their @ss whooped in in the NW and NE. Even Kano went mostly PDP.

Lots of talk, no results.

ekt_bear:

Buhari is a failure. All this bluster about "Sai Buhari", CPC got their @ss whooped in in the NW and NE. Even Kano went mostly PDP.

Lots of talk, no results.

Is he really a failure? Anyway read the post again and comment appropriately.

People voted for individual, not party. I guess most of the favoured individuals are ACN candidates.

How is this election focused on the presidential election? Is CPC even popular in the SW?

Ileke-IdI:

People voted for individual, not party. I guess most of the favoured individuals are ACN candidates.

How is this election focused on the presidential election? Is CPC even popular in the SW?

CPC is not popular in SW, but I know many people from SW that support Buhari. But my assumption is that Bola Tinubu and co. can influence the voting pattern of SW (and hence decide the presidential election) in any direction they wish.

I have a strong hunch that CPC and ACN are in an underground alliance that will see BB likely winning the election next week.

Ileke-IdI:

People voted for individual, not party. I guess most of the favoured individuals are ACN candidates.

How is this election focused on the presidential election? Is CPC even popular in the SW?

koruji:

I have a strong hunch that CPC and ACN are in an underground alliance that will see BB likely winning the election next week.

What kind of alliance?

That ACN votes will be magically counted as CPC votes

real4life:

CPC is not popular in SW, but I know many people from SW that support Buhari. But my assumption is that Bola Tinubu and co. can influence the voting pattern of SW  (and hence decide the presidential election) in any direction they wish.

How possible is this?

koruji:

I have a strong hunch that CPC and ACN are in an underground alliance that will see BB likely winning the election next week.

Same thing. Even if CPC lost "woefully", I doubt pro-ACNs are Pro-PDP.  . . . . that's if this is a party election.

@koruji: Only thing that will work is if one of Buhari or Ribadu steps down for the other.

And I doubt Ribadu will want to step down for Buhari.

Hell, would YOU want to step down for Buhari, if you were Ribadu? A guy that for whatever reason did not deliver his home base?

Basseti:

What kind of alliance?

That ACN votes will be magically counted as CPC votes

No but if there is no winner in the first round then there will be a runoff between the first two candidates. Assuming that is Jonathan and Buhari then ACN will have to support one of the two.

Exactly, I don't see any massive vote for the PDP in the SW in any of the remaining two elections - OBJ's 2003 betrayal was too great!

Ileke-IdI:

How possible is this?
Same thing. Even if CPC lost "woefully", I doubt pro-ACNs are Pro-PDP.  . . . . that's if this is a party election.

ekt_bear:

@koruji: Only thing that will work is if one of Buhari or Ribadu steps down for the other.

And I doubt Ribadu will want to step down for Buhari.

U think thats easy to pull off so late into this process? A lot of people have invested heavily into either side and pulling off now this late will leave lots of peeps disgruntled and less akin to go to the polls.

real4life:

No but if there is no winner in the first round then there will be a runoff between the first two candidates. Assuming that is Jonathan and Buhari then ACN will have to support one of the two.

Yeah, I see. But thats a BIG IF.

With the way the elections went, PDP is the only party that seem to have a presence in all the geopolitical zones . Unless if people decided to vote for candidates in this NASS and are gearing up to vote against PDP in the presidential race, i dont see how GEJ is gonna lose.

Basseti:

Yeah, I see. But thats a BIG IF.

With the way the elections went, PDP is the only party that seem to have a presence in all the geopolitical zones . Unless if people decided to vote for candidates in this NASS and are gearing up to vote against PDP in the presidential race, i dont see how GEJ is gonna lose.

Yes many Buhari supporters either stayed at home this week or voted other party candidates.

Basseti:

U think thats easy to pull off so late into this process? A lot of people have invested heavily into either side and pulling off now this late will leave lots of peeps disgruntled and less akin to go to the polls.

I don't think it will be easy to do. Part of the reason I'm so disappointed in this Buhari is for this reason. Opposition is now in a very tight spot, imo.

No, but that ACN & their supporters might have done their calculations so that a clear winner could emerge in the first round depending on which of ACN or CPC would be able to deliver the North's vote. If PDP is able to keep the North's vote next Saturday then GEJ has a good change of staying put in Aso Rock.

I am begining to enjoy the way it is difficult to simply count the presidential votes in Nigeria b/4 the actual election.

Future elections should have more substantive issues in play.

Basseti:

What kind of alliance?

That ACN votes will be magically counted as CPC votes

ekt_bear:

I don't think it will be easy to do. Part of the reason I'm so disappointed in this Buhari is for this reason. Opposition is now in a very tight spot, imo.

U are disappointed in Buhari cos he didnt step down for Ribadu?

Buhari did deliver Katsina for CPC, which I think is a prelude to what the North will do next week b/4 they go back to PDP the following week.

Ribadu could not deliver Adamawa - he has no leverage in the North.

ekt_bear:

@koruji: Only thing that will work is if one of Buhari or Ribadu steps down for the other.

And I doubt Ribadu will want to step down for Buhari.

Hell, would YOU want to step down for Buhari, if you were Ribadu?   A guy that for whatever reason did not deliver his home base?

real4life:

Yes many Buhari supporters either stayed at home this week or voted other party candidates.

Oh is that true? Or is this one of the many unsubstantiated claims made by either side .

To build a party, you need seats. To oppose the PDP, you need to deny them a majority in either the house or the senate.

ACN took care of its part of the job by taking the SW and picking up some spots in the middle belt, SS, and SE.

CPC did NOT. If it had done half as well as the ACN did, then you'd be able to deny the PDP majorities in both the house and the senate.

CPC utterly failing at this means that is now impossible. . . and more rides on capturing the presidency.

This is why I'm disappointed in Buhari. . . he has made the job of the opposition much more difficult.

koruji:

Exactly, I don't see any massive vote for the PDP in the SW in any of the remaining two elections - OBJ's 2003 betrayal was too great!

Abi.

I'll rather have a CPC presidnet and an overwhelming ACN region . . . .  it would be hard to corrupt together. Well, IMO

koruji:

Buhari did deliver Katsina for CPC, which I think is a prelude to what the North will do next week b/4 they go back to PDP the following week.

Ribadu could not deliver Adamawa - he has no leverage in the North.

Paint it anyway u like. One thing thats very clear is that both dudes couldnt deliver the northern votes with respect to this election. The results speak for themselves.

Lets see if ur theory of "Buhari supporters stayed home" is true come saturday. E don pass time for empty gra gra. Its squeaky bum time.

ekt_bear:

To build a party, you need seats. To oppose the PDP, you need to deny them a majority in either the house or the senate.

ACN took care of its part of the job by taking the SW and picking up some spots in the middle belt, SS, and SE.

CPC did NOT. If it had done half as well as the ACN did, then you'd be able to deny the PDP majorities in both the house and the senate.

CPC utterly failing at this means that is now impossible. . . and more rides on capturing the presidency.

This is why I'm disappointed in Buhari. . . he has made the job of the opposition much more difficult.

Are u disappointed in him "in hindsight"?

Cos all the pointers (at least on NL) were that he was gonna sweep the elections like a sea breeze.

Basseti:

Are u disappointed in him "in hindsight"?

Cos all the pointers (at least on NL) were that he was gonna sweep the elections like a sea breeze.

Looks like a lot of bluster, now. In hindsight, he should have just joined the ACN and let the ACN take care of the organizational stuff. ACN with 2-3 months worth of preparation could have swept the north and parts of the middle belt using his name.

CPC was not the right vehicle for accomplishing this task.

ekt_bear:

To build a party, you need seats. To oppose the PDP, you need to deny them a majority in either the house or the senate.

ACN took care of its part of the job by taking the SW and picking up some spots in the middle belt, SS, and SE.

CPC did NOT. If it had done half as well as the ACN did, then you'd be able to deny the PDP majorities in both the house and the senate.

CPC utterly failing at this means that is now impossible. . . and more rides on capturing the presidency.

This is why I'm disappointed in Buhari. . . he has made the job of the opposition much more difficult.

I agree, but not Buhari's fault. The biggest problem was that many of the CPC candidates are not popular. I remember when CPC was formed, Buhari tried to ensure that only clean, well respected people were allowed to join the party but there was an outcry by the cabals that he was being undemocratic. They literally forced him to stay clear from screening new party members and from influencing the party primaries. This is the result

ekt_bear:

Looks like a lot of bluster, now. In hindsight, he should have just joined the ACN and let the ACN take care of the organizational stuff. ACN with 2-3 months worth of preparation could have swept the north and parts of the middle belt using his name.

CPC was not the right vehicle for accomplishing this task.

So he will be the flag bearer of ACN then?
And u are assuming that Ribadu will be ok with that? maybe u know something that i dont.

real4life:

I agree, but not Buhari's fault. The biggest problem was that many of the CPC candidates are not popular. I remember when CPC was formed, Buhari tried to ensure that only clean, well respected people were allowed to join the party but there was an outcry by the cabals that he was being undemocratic. They literally forced him to stay clear from screening new party members and from influencing the party primaries. This is the result

I have to disagree with you here. It took ACN over 8 years to get where it is today. I believe in it's first 4 years, the party was only able to control Lagos, and slowly moved it's influence out from there.

CPC is a brand new party - less than 6 months old and not really parking any of the big names, except for Buhari himself. So, I don't understand why anyone would deem it a failure simply because it did not produce as much as another party that has had well over 6 years to establish itself among the Nigerian populace and the big names. It is simply irrational to expect that from a party that young. Even Soyinka could not get his party that influential in that amount of time.

It IS his fault. Look, party building is not Buhari's strength, right? We suspected it when he lost control of the ANPP, now we know it to be a fact after this massive failure in the North.

So why not join a party which is GOOD at building structures, like the ACN? Let them take care of the sundry details like putting good candidates for governorship/house/senate, and let Buhari focus on the presidency.

But due to his arrogance/shortsightedness/foolishness (whatever you want to call it), PDP will likely trounce both opposition parties for presidential elections, and probably win most of the governors slots too.

All I care about is results. And from a party-building perspective, Buhari has not delivered.

Basseti:

So he will be the flag bearer of ACN then?
And u are assuming that Ribadu will be ok with that? maybe u know something that i dont.

At the time the negotiations were happening, Ribadu said something to the effect that he willing to sacrifice for the greater good. I interpreted that as meaning he was willing to step down.

Anyway, whatever. I just hope the PDP doesn't suck over the next four years and isn't too corrupt.

ekt_bear:

Looks like a lot of bluster, now. In hindsight, he should have just joined the ACN and let the ACN take care of the organizational stuff. ACN with 2-3 months worth of preparation could have swept the north and parts of the middle belt using his name.

CPC was not the right vehicle for accomplishing this task.

Yes maybe that would have been the better option. I think his main reason for not doing that was the disappointment he suffered in ANPP when the party literally dumped him when the going was tough. But I think ACN is much more organized and focused than ANPP. Anyway, if Buhari loses (hopefully not) the election then he will retire and CPC will have to join ACN or collapse.

Kobojunkie:


So, I don't understand why anyone would deem it a failure simply because it did not produce as much as another party that has had well over 6 years to establish itself among the Nigerian populace and the big names.

That was not the prevailing thought 5 days ago. Heck, that was not the prevailing thought yesterday.
Too much wasted steam on the part of CPC proponents if u want a reason why peeps consider it a failure

It doesn't matter who wins next Saturday we have to stay on their tails, otherwise they will disappoint us royally.

ekt_bear:

Anyway, whatever. I just hope the PDP doesn't suck over the next four years and isn't too corrupt.