Unlike in the past when voting pattern was usually predictable during presidential polls, voters may alter the pattern in this week’s election. Our reporters have been monitoring developments and voters’ attitude in all the states of the federation and below are their submissions: SOUTH-EAST This region’s votes may be shared between Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari. But Jonathan holds the ace. Abia state The feud between ex-governor Orji Uzor Kalu and the incumbent Chief T. A. Orji may affect the bloc votes that would have easily been given to President Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in Abia State. Kalu, a chieftain of the Progressive Peoples Alliance, PPA, is believed to be a sympathizer of a northern candidacy for the 2011 presidential seat. He is believed to be rooting for General Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change, CPC. If Kalu directs his supporters to vote for Buhari, the votes might go either way – for Jonathan or Buhari. Whoever wins will do so by a slim margin. As things stand now, Jonathan’s chances seem a bit brighter than any other candidate’s in the state. Enugu Jonathan’s chances are brighter in this state than in Abia. But it depends on what the Adamu Ciroma-led Northern Peoples Leaders Forum, NPLF, brings to the table this week. If the NPLF categorically states that it would cede power to the South-East in 2015, then Enugu state and a substantial part of the South-East region may vote for General Buhari. Ebonyi The voting pattern here may also favour Jonathan. PDP may win in this state by a landslide margin. Anambra Jonathan would win in this state by landslide. Imo This may be one of the unpredictable states in the South-East that may vote in negation of its traditional pattern. Due to the hatred and outrage of most indigenes of Imo State against Governor Ohakim, Jonathan may not perform creditably in this state during this week’s election.
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SOUTH-SOUTH

The voting here would essentially favour Jonathan. Bayelsa Jonathan would win by a terrific landslide in this state – but not by 100 per cent. This is Jonathan’s home state. Cross River Joanthan would win convincingly in this state. Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, may also be a factor here. Rivers This state belongs to Jonathan too – although Buhari would make a good showing here. Edo State It is believed that the governor of the state, Comrade Adams Oshimhole of ACN, may cross-carpet to the PDP in future and therefore may harbour some sympathy for the ruling party. Also, the monarch of the Benin Kingdom, Omo N’oba N’Edo, Uku Akpolokpolo, is believed to favour a PDP/Jonathan victory in this week’s poll. The contest in this state, therefore, would strictly be between Jonathan and Ribadu. Akwa Ibom state Due to the loss of their 86 oil wells to Rivers state through the Supreme Court judgment, about which they believed Jonathan did the popular ACN candidate in the state, Senator John James Akpanudoedehe, whose predicament is believed by many in the state to be orchestrated by the Jonathan-led PDP, it is very much doubtful if Jonathan will win in this state at this weekend’s poll. Delta state Jonathan would convincingly win in this state, perhaps with a modestly good showing by Buhari.

SOUTH-WEST
Ribadu looms large in this region. Jonathan too would not disappoint. Lagos Contrary to our penultimate week’s report that Lagos is one of the states Jonathan may lose, at press time weekend, it became evident that if there is free and fair election in the state, Candidate Jonathan would win fair and square in Lagos. Osun Ribadu would also win here. Buhari and Jonathan would do well too. Ekiti Ribadu would win here too. Ondo Ribadu’s chances are bright here. But the decision of Governor Mimiko this are bright here. But the decision of Governor Mimiko this week would determine who ultimately wins in this state. Whoever Mimiko supports would win by landslide. Ogun Ribadu and Buhari may win in this state. The conspiracy against ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, political godfather of Candidate Jonathan, may see the PDP losing this state to Ribadu or Buhari. Oyo Jonathan may win in this state. Buhari’s chances are very bright here too.

NORTH EAST
Buhari would perform very well in this geo-political zone. Adamawa state Ribadu may win in this state, but the odds greatly favour Jonathan. Bauchi Buhari would win in this state by landslide. Gombe Buhari would win here too, by landslide. Borno This state looks good for Buhari, but Jonathan may get some votes. Yobe Buhari would win here, by landslide. Taraba Three-horse race between Ribadu, Buhari and Jonathan.

NORTH-WEST
This is Buhari’s stronghold; his enclave. Kano Buhari would get 95 per cent votes here. Kebbi Buhari would get overwhelming votes here. Kaduna PDP has never lost Kaduna state, the political capital of northern Nigeria. But it is set to lose it to Buhari at this Saturday’s poll. Katsina Buhari would win by a landslide victory. Zamfara Buhari would win gallantly in this state too. Jigawa Buhari would win in this state too, but Jonathan would do some showing. Sokoto The elites in this state favour Jonathan, but the masses prefer Buhari. Both candidates would do well. But our reporters cannot predict the winner of the contest in this state, although this state is the cradle of Islam in Nigeria.

NORTH CENTRAL
This zone would be shared amongst the candidates. FCT (Abuja) Against popular projections, FCT may be won by Buhari. But it would be a tight fight between Jonathan and Buhari. Nasarawa state Buhari would win convincingly in this state. Kogi state Shekarau, Buhari and Jonathan would hotly sweat it out here. Too close to call here. Benue Ribadu or Buhari may win in this state. It is going to be a difficult terrain for Jonathan. Kwara Jonathan or Buhari may win in this state. The intrigues and plots in Kwara were not substantially accessible by press time, weekend. Niger Buhari would win convincingly in this state. Ribadu may make some good showing too. Conclusion: Who wins this Saturday’s presidential election? Two factors are critical to the determination of the likely victor at this weekend’s poll: Alliance between ACN and CPC, and; the public endorsement of any of the candidates by the Adamu Ciroma-led NPLF.

FRESHFACTS is reasonably convinced that Jonathan and PDP would lose woefully, if the ACN and CPC announce a pact between them and allow the candidate of one of the two parties to fly the flag of the alliance. This newspaper’s past analyses had consistently favoured the triumph of a northern candidate, until the alliance talks between ACN and CPC broke down few months ago. But with reports of fresh talks of possible partnership between the opposition parties dove-tailing into last weekend, PDP’s victory is not assured at this Saturday’s poll. That scenario is unimaginable by most Nigerians, but it is a very strong possibility. The position of the NPLF is also critical to the victory or loss of the PDP this Saturday. It is believed that if the NPLF throws it weight behind Jonathan, it may be a big boost for his electoral fortunes this weekend, and if, on the other hand, it chooses to support a northern candidate, it may spell doom to Jonathan’s chances. The possibility of a re-run election is strong if there is no alliance[/left][/b]

Can you pls add some paragraphs. What the F.

sorry i didnt have that much time

You dont know politics Bro you are still learning

Kalu who could not win his ward at the senatorial race how can he affect vote of the Abians

South east may vote anybody at the governorship or national assembly But presidential can never be nagotiated with any man is GEJ all the way.


Too if you would like to learn Politics please contact me.

gernded:

You dont know politics Bro you are still learning

Kalu who could not win his ward at the senatorial race how can he affect vote of the Abians

South east may vote anybody at the governorship or national assembly But presidential can never be nagotiated with any man is GEJ all the way.


Too if you would like to learn Politics please contact me.

please i am not a politician and i would like to learn about politics all the nitty gritty if you would teach me.How do you propose i start learning i can assure you am a fast learner

Learn from those who speak in numbers:

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-628352.0.html

Be sure to follow the analysis from the first page to the last. The model has gone through various checks and balances from both Buhari, Ribadu and GEJ fans. Feel free to make your own input (in numbers).

You can download the excel file from this post: https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-628352.32.html#msg7990972
Feel free to play with the numbers and tell us your result afterwards.