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Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries - Politics - Nairaland

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Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Islie: 6:40am On Mar 21, 2021
• Proposed Refinery In Katsina Costs $2b, TAM For Old Facility $1.5b

• $1.5b Fresh Approval Higher Than 10-year Capital Allocation To Health

• TAM Three Times Higher Than 10-year Education Budget


The whopping sum of $26.5b, which the Federal Government has so far spent on the maintenance of its loss-making 445, 000 barrels/day capacity refineries, is capable of building three new refineries of the same size going by the cost analysis of refinery projects across the world.

Besides, the latest approval granted by President Muhammadu Buhari, who is also the Minister of Petroleum Resources for the rehabilitation of the 210, 000 barrels per day Port Harcourt Refinery is higher than the total capital allocation to the health sector by successive governments from 2009 to 2018.

Costing close to the $2b proposed refinery expected to be built in Katsina, Nigeria’s spending on refinery maintenance is, in fact, three times higher than the entire budgetary allocation to education between 2009 and 2018.

The Federal Executive Council (FEC), presided over by Buhari, last week approved the sum of $1.5b (about N575b), for immediate commencement of rehabilitation works on the largest refining company in the country, the 32-year-old Port Harcourt Refinery.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva, explained thereafter that contract for the rehabilitation was awarded to Italian firm, Tecnimont SPA, and would be executed in three phases. The first phase is expected to be completed within 28 months, Sylva said, adding that the second and third phases would be completed in 24 and 44 months respectively.


Nigeria has three refineries located in Kaduna, Port Harcourt and Warri. These assets’ installed capacity of 445, 000 bpd plummeted over the years until the facility got obsolete and currently processes zero crude, while recording massive losses.

The $1.5b approved last week for the TAM thus pushed the hitherto $25b for the same purpose to $26.5 billion. The previous figure was never refuted by the government.

Buried in corruption with series of probes at the National Assembly indicting public officials for misappropriating funds meant for TAM, documents on the financial details of previous maintenance exercises, especially since the military regime have been scanty.

A close look at some refinery projects across the world show that the country would have built about three efficient refineries if funds spent on TAM were used for the construction of new refineries, instead of continuously maintaining existing refineries, which were performing poorly despite several attempts to revive them.

The Pacifico Eloy Alfaro Refinery and Petrochemical Complex (Pacific Refinery) being constructed at El Aromo, Manta, in the province of Manabi, Ecuador is a 500, 000 barrels per day (bpd) facility, and was built for $12b. Dangote Refinery, a 650, 000 (bpd) integrated refinery and petrochemical facility is being constructed for about $15b. Kuwait is also building Al Zour Oil Refinery for $16b. The capacity of the refinery is 615,000 bpd.

With the nation’s three refineries having a combined capacity of 445, 000 bpd, the implication is that it would cost less than $8b to build a new 210, 000 bpd refinery in Port Harcourt (the same size with the existing one). It should also cost less than $8b to build a new refinery in Warri, where the existing one, which was built in 1987, has total capacity 125, 000 barrels per stream day.

The Kaduna Refinery has a nameplate refining capacity of 110, 000 barrels per day. If a similar facility were to be built in the area, it would cost less than $8b. The three refineries would therefore cost only about $24b.

Indeed, President Buhari had in 2018, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with his counterpart from the Republic of Niger, Mahamadou Issoufou for the construction of oil pipelines, and a 150, 000 bpd capacity refinery, expected to be sited in Katsina State, and expected to receive crude oil through the pipelines from Niger’s oilfields in the Ténéré desert. The cost of the refinery and the pipeline were valued at about $2bn.

While Nigeria spends $1b yearly on health tourism as the nation’s health sector remains in a shambles, the current $15b maintenance cost for the Port Harcourt Refinery is higher than budgetary allocations to health projects by over N100b.

Between 2009 and 2018, capital allocation to the Ministry of Health stood at N478.9b. In 2009 and 2010, N50.8b and N49.99b capital allocation were budgeted for the Ministry of Health. The figure stood at N33.53bn in 2011, N57.01b in 2012, N60.08b in 2013, N49.52b in 2014, and dropped sharply to N22.68b in 2015.

In 2016, it went up to N28.65bn, rose to N55.61bn in 2017, and settled at N71.11b in 2018.


The education sector is in decline, with the country accounting for the highest number of about 23, 000 lecturers that depart the continent yearly.

Meanwhile, the $26.5b TAM is nearly three times the N3.90t allocated to the sector in the past 10 years (2009-2018) from a total budget of N55.19t.

In 2009, the budget for education was N221.19b, N249.09b in 2010; N306.3b in 2011; N400.15b in 2012; and N426.53b in 2013. It rose to N493b in 2014, went further up to N392.2b in 2015; N369.6b in 2016; N550 in 2017, and N605.8b in 2018, bringing the total figure to N3.90t.

It would also be recalled that that NNPC had reported in its monthly financial statement that about N1.47t was spent on the four refineries, between 2015 and N2020.

In 2015, about N82.82b was spent, N78.95b in 2016; N604.127b in 2017; N426.66b in 2019; N218.18b in 2019, and N64.534b expenditure was recorded from January to June 2020.

A professor of Economics, Segun Ajibola said while a lot of resources have been diverted to the TAM of the refineries, there results have never been commensurate.


He blamed the situation on poor implementation, mismanagement and lack of accountability on the part of government owned institutions.

“The expectation has always been that the refineries would either be fully privatised, or sold outright to remove government’s hand from the day to day management of the refineries. This is with a view to removing government’s inefficiency from the affairs of the refineries.

“With the approval of $1.5b to rehabilitate the refinery, one can still hope that the government is trying to enhance the value of Port Harcourt Refinery in readiness for either full privatisation, or outright sale,” Ajibola said.

The scholar insisted that the rehabilitation could be another sordid tale in years to come if the refinery returns to the traditional operational mode (operating through public ownership and management template).

Like Ajibola, other energy experts and civil society organisations do not not welcome government’s move to revamp the asset, given that since the administration came on board, it has repeatedly stated that no government funding would be spent on the asset.

In separate interviews, stakeholders express discomfort with the idea, as well as the amount budgeted for the exercise.

The Group Chairman/CEO, ‎International Energy Services Limited, Dr. Diran Fawibe, noted that without a comprehensive rehabilitation and audit, the amount would be as good as a waste, considering the fact that the facility has failed to perform after years of maintenance.

Fawibe, a former management staff of the NNPC, warned that without proper rehabilitation and auditing of the entire facility to ensure that the liability of the facility remains very minimal, the fund could end up on the same path as the previous amounts released.


According to him, the contractor must be held by the throat for a guarantee of performance, as well as years of defect liability period, with extra spare parts at no additional cost, should the facility develop a problem after being rehabilitated.

An energy expert, Henry Adigun, does not see any sense in spending $1.5b to fix a refinery, stating that it was unfortunate for the government to resort to the option after promising to allow the private sector to run the facility on BOT.

“Where is the money going to come from? Turn around for what? What is the context? Adigun asked, adding that the move by the government was most unfortunate.

For the Director of the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), Idayat Hassan, Nigeria must build new refineries instead of pumping money into dead facilities, stressing that rehabilitating the Port Harcourt refinery with $1.5b was totally a misplaced priority.

“If we do a cost analysis, we should be able to see how much more we need for a new refinery. It is becoming counterproductive to try to continue to rehabilitate what is failing,” Hassan said.

“That contract is too much. You don’t need that amount of money to turn around a refinery anywhere in the world. I prefer that we build a new one,” energy expert, Madaki Ameh added.
https://m.guardian.ng/news/nigerias-26-5-billion-maintenance-cost-enough-to-build-three-new-refineries/

9 Likes 3 Shares

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Anigreat: 6:47am On Mar 21, 2021
[s]
IPOBTERRORISTS:
wink Hmm Good luck baboon jonathan and Olusegun Gorilla Obasanjo have really destroyed Nigeria. Without Buhari we would have all died by now
[/s]


shocked





Nairaland giving terrorist the opportunity to insult people they are not fit to loose their shoe lace.


Is it the death Buhari or Jubril Alsundani? please be specific.

The evil you lots up not sowed in this country will one day grow and you all will reap in abundance.. terrorism and Banditry that is ravaging north will be a child's play.

44 Likes

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Racoon(m): 6:50am On Mar 21, 2021
FG revamping refineries with humongous amount that what Dangote used to build his new refinery? What kind of wickedness is this for goodness sake? See them new yam eaters them cashing out while bitterly complaining of cash crunch.God will punish all of una.Ndi ala!

64 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by LeeSantos(m): 6:51am On Mar 21, 2021
IPOBTERRORISTS:
wink Hmm Good luck baboon jonathan and Olusegun Gorilla Obasanjo have really destroyed Nigeria. Without Buhari we would have all died by now
what's this one even saying?

40 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Monogamy: 6:53am On Mar 21, 2021
That's only if FG would be sincere about the refineries this time.

No be today we dey here such story with no records for the money approved for the project

1 Like

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by chatinent: 7:08am On Mar 21, 2021
Post-looted.

14 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Mayng01(m): 7:30am On Mar 21, 2021
Nigeria is finished

10 Likes

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by bestman09(m): 7:31am On Mar 21, 2021

Bubu have finished this country. J Anja - weed Government

12 Likes

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by GIANTPLUSHUB: 7:31am On Mar 21, 2021
Hmmmm
Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Muhylonaire007: 7:32am On Mar 21, 2021
Na Naija we dey na
Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by sofiscatedmoron: 7:32am On Mar 21, 2021
grin
Na wa for naija,
The best solution na to japa

1 Like

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by karzyharsky(m): 7:32am On Mar 21, 2021
Nigeria is completely finished
Nigeria is finished completely

12 Likes

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by 9jathingsonpoint: 7:33am On Mar 21, 2021
up Buhari
Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by oz4real83(m): 7:33am On Mar 21, 2021
All those years Buhari was contesting and losing elections, he actually had no plans or ideas of how to run government embarassed. He kept losing, we never knew that God was doing us a favour until we forcefully demanded for change. embarassed

60 Likes 9 Shares

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by megacity: 7:34am On Mar 21, 2021
Too bad
Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by whela(m): 7:34am On Mar 21, 2021
Cashout season

4 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Kayberg: 7:34am On Mar 21, 2021
Tired of them already.
Not new.
Make GOD bless man pikin hustle naim sure pass. If your head is raised, you'd just laugh at these legal thieves knowing you acquired yours with GOD'S blessings and won't stand trial on how you acquired your wealth on judgment day.
That's why I believe that Nigeria can never be better nor change nor improve as long as Nigerians keep reinstalling their presidents and leaders from the National Recycle Bin of Ex-Servicemen.

7 Likes

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Olawalelead(m): 7:35am On Mar 21, 2021
.
Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Muhylonaire007: 7:35am On Mar 21, 2021
IPOBTERRORISTS:
wink Hmm Good luck baboon jonathan and Olusegun Gorilla Obasanjo have really destroyed Nigeria. Without Buhari we would have all died by now


What has Obasanjo and Jonathan done, compared to your darling daddy?
I won't find it funny if we later hear say Ipobterrorist commit suicide.

Very dumb fulk

12 Likes

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by bitingcool: 7:35am On Mar 21, 2021
The looting machinery of Nigeria. Want to loot? Use the refinery as an excuse. When smart illiterates rule...

2 Likes

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by bestman09(m): 7:35am On Mar 21, 2021
On a lighter mood, this is the Genesis of the problems between Adams Oshiomole and Rocha's Okorocha.

10 Likes

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Omoboricash(m): 7:36am On Mar 21, 2021
Islie:

• Proposed Refinery In Katsina Costs $2b, TAM For Old Facility $1.5b

• $1.5b Fresh Approval Higher Than 10-year Capital Allocation To Health

• TAM Three Times Higher Than 10-year Education Budget



https://m.guardian.ng/news/nigerias-26-5-billion-maintenance-cost-enough-to-build-three-new-refineries/
Nine Reasons Why Refineries’ Rehabilitation Is Justified

By Adewole Kehinde
Mail Express Online
Saturday, 20 March 2021

It is no longer news that the Federal Executive Council on Wednesday, 17th March, 2021 approved the sum of $1.5 billion for the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt Refinery Company Ltd.
Unfortunately, some personalities like Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Gov Nyesom Wike, Activist Aisha Yesufu, Senator Dino Melaye, and Former Gov Peter Obi among others are opposing the rehabilitation/contract award. 
Below are the nine reasons why refineries’ rehabilitation is justified

1. AFTER YEARS OF NEGLECT, THE PLANTS NEED TO BE BACK

Nigeria’s three refineries in Warri, Kaduna and Port Harcourt with a combined capacity of 445,000b/d capacity were established to ensure energy security for the country. Unfortunately, these refineries have suffered years of neglect due to delays in conducting mandatory Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) that has resulted in performance decline over the past two decades and they have all been shut down to allow proper diagnosis and rehabilitation.

Of these refineries, the most strategic is the Port-Harcourt Refining Company (PHRC) with a capacity of 210,000 b/d and can produce 10.4 million liters of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) per day. This refinery had its last TAM in the year 2000 (21 years ago).

It is gladdening therefore to see that there is finally a move on the part of government to rehabilitate the Port Harcourt refinery and restore all the numerous advantages that operating the refinery will bring to the Country. This rehabilitation, unlike TAM (which should normally be carried out every two years but was neglected for many years), will involve comprehensive repairs of the plant with significant replacement of critical equipment to ensure the plant integrity is maintained for a minimum of ten years.

2.  REHABILITATION VS BUILDING NEW REFINERIES: WHAT ECONOMICS?

Some critics have said that it is more economical to build a new refinery than “just waste US$1.5bn” to rehabilitate the PHRC, which holds 210,000bpd out of Nigeria’s 445,000bpd refining capacity. On the contrary, a cursory look at brand new refineries built across the world will reveal the following:

US$10bn was budgeted for building Aramco Oil Refinery (250,000-300,000 bpd) in Pakistan

US$12bn was budgeted for building Abrue Lima Project (230,000) in Brazil

US$27bn was budgeted for building Pengerang Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development, RAPID (300,000 b/d + 3 mtpa) naptha steam cracker) in Indonesia.

Closer home, US$19bn was budgeted for building Dangote Refinery (650,000bpd) in Nigeria.

3.  THE LENDER IS SMART, THE CONTRACTOR REPUTABLE

African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is the reliable lender that has agreed to raise up to $1billion towards the rehabilitation project. In the same vein, Government will raise the sum of US$550m. A credible and capable lender like Afreximbank would never agree to put such huge amount of money where there will be no value.

Similarly, Tecnimont SpA, representative of the Original Refinery Builder (ORB) which is one of the top ten global Engineering, Procurement, Construction, Installation and Commissioning (EPCIC) Contractor in refineries, is globally reputable and capable, with requisite experience of similar jobs across the globe.

4.  STRATEGIC ASSETS ARE NEVER FOR SALE

Despite the abundance of hydrocarbon resources, Nigeria is, sadly, the only oil gas producer in the world that does not refine petroleum products. Instead, the country relies heavily on importation for most of its PMS needs locally. This is not a good record to be proud of.

Armchair critics also come up with a shallow argument that it is better to sell off these refineries since they can no longer meet up the nation’s refining needs. Which country sells off its strategic national assets, such as the refineries, to the highest bidder? Who sells off their refinery when even countries who don’t produce a drop of hydrocarbon still go ahead and build refineries?

5.  THE END OF ‘BUSINESS AS USUAL’

Armchair critics usually think a mere mention of rehabilitation means another round of “business as usual”, where resources are drained with nothing to show for it at the end of the day. While some of these arguments are justifiable, it is instructive to note that this rehabilitation is different because interested parties who benefit from the age-long importation largesse (and who fleece the nation dry) will potentially be out of business by the time the rehabilitation is completed.

This is the same for critics who see nothing good in President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration. These detractors probably forgot that this was an administration which, from its inception, made clear its intention to bring back the refineries to their optimal capacities. The Buhari Presidency also threw its full weight and support behind the NNPC and gave the Corporation a free hand to execute the project without any interference in the contracting processes.

6. THE BENEFITS ARE ENORMOUS…AND ENDLESS

There are quite a number of benefits in bringing the nation’s refineries back on stream. From satisfying local energy demand, growing the nation’s GDP, to strengthening the Naira by reducing the demand for Forex to creating thousands of jobs across the value chain (crude supply, operating and maintaining the refinery, product supply etc) including several third-party contractors that will supply outsourced services or goods, the advantages are huge.

The refined products also serve as feedstock for small scale local manufacturing. The most significant and visible benefit is energy security for the country. Imagine if COVID-19 lockdown became global and Nigeria couldn’t import, it would have been a disaster as there was no capacity to refine crude in-country and as such, there would have been no products at all. That will be a true definition of disaster!

7. IT’S OPERATE & MAINTAIN (O&M) MODEL

Having learnt from the experiences of previous models, NNPC is now adopting the Operate & Maintain (O&M) Model as a strategy in the execution of the rehabilitation project, which is also one of the key lender requirements. With the O&M Strategy, the Contractor is expected to:

• Be a single point of responsibility for managing operations, maintenance and technical services within the refinery’s battery limit

• Be a credible, proven refinery operator with preferably FCC experience

• Operate and maintain the refinery efficiently to generate sufficient margins to pay back the debt

• Be Able to manage local and specialized sub-contractors

• Retain current NNPC staff, and actively support employee development to prepare for the transfer of the refinery management back to NNPC (timeline to be defined)

• NNPC will retain 100% of refinery ownership (e.g. no JV structure etc.)

• NNPC does not expect significant capital projects (e.g. upgrades, de-bottlenecking etc) during the O&M contract phase.

• NNPC’s structure and mandates outside of the refinery’s battery limits will not be impacted by the O&M strategy (e.g. PPMC).

8. THE CURIOUS CASE OF SHELL’S MARTINEZ REFINERY ‘SALE’

It is strange to hear people come up with the curious case of Shell’s sale of its Martinez Refinery in California to PBF Holding for $1.2bn “while NNPC is only rehabilitating PHRC for $1.5bn.” Perhaps, what people failed to understand is that Martinez Refinery is 105years old (built in 1916). The refinery had a major fire incident in September 1989 and it is having regulatory challenge with the Californian authorities. The relatively high cost of doing business in California, coupled with challenges with adherence to the State’s environmental regulations were factors in Shell’s decision to sell (https://www.ktvu.com/news/after-105-years-martinez-refinery-no-longer-owned-by-shell).

Also, as part of the condition of the sale agreement, Shell and PBF previously entered into a market-based crude oil supply and product off-take agreements to continue supplying Shell-branded businesses and ensuring that Shell customers continue having access to Shell-branded fields (See https://www.ogj.com/refining-processing/article/14092900/shell-finalizes-sale-of-martinez-refinery).

In a nutshell therefore, what happened between Shell and PBF was just a Management agreement packaged as a sale to manage and protect Shell’s image, hence, it can never be a fair comparison with the cost of rehabilitating an NNPC refinery or even building a new one. Putting up such argument as a defence looks like a well-choreographed attempt by groups who feel that the refineries coming on stream will not only throw them out of business, but will also threaten their long-term interests.

9.  FINALLY, AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT APPROACH THIS TIME AROUND 

Unlike what is obtained in the past, the current refineries rehabilitation project is different for the following reasons:

a. It consists of a governance structure that includes key independent external stakeholders: Ministry of Finance, NEITI, ICRC, PENGASSAN and NUPENG. 

b.        Unlike the regular TAM, this rehabilitation will involve comprehensive repairs of the plant with significant replacement of critical equipment to ensure that the plant’s integrity is maintained for a minimum of ten years.

c.         It is funded through part-loan and part-government, with the financiers actively monitoring the execution of the project.

d.        KBR and NETCO are acting as NNPC Engineers who will be supervising the EPC contract to ensure that the project is delivered on schedule, within budget and at the right quality.

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Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Ubykcee(m): 7:37am On Mar 21, 2021
Okay
Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Boye33: 7:37am On Mar 21, 2021
The country is completely damaged with the citizens fed up and not ready to correct any wrong.

Just last week, the FEC approved about 2 billion naira per km for a road construction.

it shall never be well with this people.
Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Macphenson: 7:38am On Mar 21, 2021
Kk
Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Anneka101(f): 7:38am On Mar 21, 2021
Make I read first.


All I can possibly say us that Nigeria is in deep shit. An average youth just have to buckle up and relocate from this shithole.


Our leaders have failed us.
Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by CheedyJ(m): 7:38am On Mar 21, 2021
A case of Penny wise pound foolish
Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by Nackzy: 7:39am On Mar 21, 2021
They have to have what they will use in funding 2023

1 Like

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by MANDIPUTIN: 7:39am On Mar 21, 2021
If you don't know this is one of ways politicians in Nigeria embezzle & Syphon money when its season of election, then you don't know Nigeria very well.
No matter how you kick against it,they wouldn't listen. Because the main purpose for this project is to embezzle the funds for the next election.

3 Likes

Re: Nigeria’s $26.5 Billion Maintenance Cost Enough To Build Three New Refineries by yesloaded: 7:39am On Mar 21, 2021
this administration is funny

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