The imperativeness of a change of guard in the House of Representatives is gradually emerging. The crashing out of the Speaker of the House, Dimeji Bankole in the recent national assembly elections in his native Ogun State has made it certain that the lower legislative chamber will be led by a new set of leaders.


Mr Bankole, who ran on the platform of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), lost in his bid to return to the House to a relatively unknown candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

His deputy, Usman Bayero Nafada who had earlier indicated his intention not to return for the third time to the lower legislative chamber, had wanted to contest the gubernatorial elections in that state, but withdrew at the primaries when it became obvious that he wasn't going to secure the ticket.

Interestingly, the Senate President, David Mark and his deputy, Ike Ekweremadu, won their elections to return to the federal parliament.

The two positions had been zoned by the PDP, which enjoyed majority in the House, to the South West and North East geo-political zones, respectively.

Now that it is clear that both Messrs Bankole and Nafada are not returning, the House will be getting a new leadership from early June when the seventh session of the National Assembly will be inaugurated.

However, the emergence of the leadership, like that of the Senate, will be determined by a number of factors.

Zoning policy

First is the policy of zoning and rotation of offices adopted by the PDP. Between 1999 and 2003, the party zoned the presidency to the South West and the North East, respectively. It also zoned the Senate President and Speaker of the House to the South East and North West, respectively. The deputy senate president and the deputy speaker were produced by the North Central and South-South.

But in 2007, the North West produced the president while the South-South produced the vice. Similarly, the senate presidency went to the North Central, while the South West produced the speaker while their deputies came from the South East and North East, respectively. Although the PDP went into these elections with the controversy over zoning of the presidency still raging, it is not impossible that the leadership offices of the federal legislature would be rotated among the different zones. At the peak of the zoning controversy, Mr Jonathan alluded to the fact that as spelt out in Section 7.2c of the PDP constitution, after the emergence of the president and the vice president, the other key offices would be zoned.

There is therefore the likelihood that the offices of the presiding officers of the Senate and the House will be re-zoned. In fact, it is almost certain that the South West will not produce the next speaker due to the performance of the PDP in the zone during the last parliamentary polls.

Earlier, the decision by Messrs David Mark, Ike Ekweremadu and Bankole to re-contest had thrown up a debate whether they would retain their positions in the coming dispensation or become ordinary members in both chambers.

Ranking

Closely related to that is the ranking factor. The issue of ranking became a major factor in the emergence of the principal officers of the national assembly in 2003. In that year, lawmakers that served between 1999 and 2003 felt that, as seniors, they should be the only ones to be considered for the leadership positions in both chambers since those just coming in did not have cognate experience.

Although elections are yet to be conducted in 15 senatorial districts and over 40 federal constituencies, it appears many of the serving lawmakers will not be returning. So far, only about five members of the House from South West succeeded in their bid to return. Assuming therefore that the position of speakership is retained in the South West, the returnees likely to jostle for the position are Ajibola Muraina and Adeniyi Busari both of who are from Oyo State.

Those who would have challenged Mr Bankole effectively for that position are not returning. They include Wole Oke (Osun) chairman of defence committee and Dave Salako (Ogun) chairman of communications committee.

If it is zoned to the South East, the incumbent chief whip of the house, Emeka Ihedioha may be a strong contender. Mr Ihedioha, who is coming for the third time represents Ezihinitte/Mbaise federal constituency of Imo State. He may be challenged by his predecessor in that position, Bethel Amadi, also from Imo State. There are also Ogbuefi Ozomgbachi, chairman of banking and currency committee and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, chairman of marine transport committee, both from Enugu State.

If the position goes to the North East, Yakubu Dogara, former chairman of the committee on commerce from Bauchi State, will be a strong contender. He may be challenged by Anthony Madwatte, a Christian from Adamawa State. If it is zoned to the North Central, it will be a major fight among the lawmakers from there because the zone is a stronghold of the PDP.

Presidential influence

Yet, the personality of the president may also be a deciding factor on who occupies which office in the National Assembly. In 2007, the PDP had planned that the South East would produce the Speaker while the North Central produce the Senate President. But in the build-up to the inauguration of the legislature, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, demanded that the speakership should not only go to his home zone, South West but should be occupied by Ms Etteh, from Osun State.

In any case, all these calculations and projections will depend on if the PDP is going into any working alliance with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

Mr Jonathan who is the candidate of the PDP was reported to have met with leaders of the ACN, including Bola Tinubu recently during which he dangled some carrots, as it were, before him. If both parties have a breakthrough in their talks, analysts say it may result in the South West, the stronghold of the ACN, producing the Senate President akin to the NPN/NPP arrangement in the second republic. But the renewed alliance talks between the ACN and Muhammadu Buhari's Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) ahead of Saturday's presidential poll may endanger that possibility.

http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/News/Metro/Politics/5689633-147/story.csp

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