In 1999, Bola Tinubu emerged as the governor of Lagos State on the platform of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD). He went on to emerge returning governor in 2003, during a period the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) swept up five south-west states; but Tinubu survived the scare and served a second term. In 2007, the Action Congress (AC), with Tinubu as front man, put forward a relatively politically unknown individual in the person of Babatunde Fashola, for the governorship poll. Contesting against seemingly more experienced politicians like Musiliu Obanikoro of the PDP and Jimi Agbaje of the DPA, Fashola seemed embroiled in a harder battle than that faced by his predecessor; but like his godfather, he also survived and became governor of Lagos State.

To say that the AD turned AC turned ACN has a stronghold on Lagos State would be stating the obvious. Fashola has had what is largely considered to be a successful first tenure as governor. It appears also that he is largely expected to win in Saturday’s gubernatorial elections. But what if Fashola loses in the elections? Fashola’s political existence draws its roots from a rich political dynasty. For the founding fathers and later generations and followers of this dynasty, the thought of Fashola losing in the elections is an abomination. The reinvigorated success enjoyed by the ACN in the south-west can no doubt be attributed to the dedicated efforts of the Tinubu clan at ensuring that Lagos remains in the family. If Fashola were to lose in the coming elections, it would very likely mark the beginning of the end of a dynasty, and that I presume would have far-reaching consequences.

If Fashola were to lose in Saturday’s elections, Nigeria would have moved in leaps and bounds as far as our democracy is concerned, and I do believe the word nascent would cease to be employed when describing our then not-so-fledgling democracy. The power of incumbency has been known to be overwhelming in Nigerian politics, and it is expected to play a huge role in the governorship elections. Fashola’s failure to return would reveal a different side to the Lagos voters. It would suggest that the electorate have matured and have transcended the various forms of political sentiment that suggest the most lurid of philosophies during election periods. The notion that it were better to vote for the devil one knows as against the angel one does not know would have been thrown out the window.

The result of the presidential election held last week has caused rioting, killings, and destruction of property in some parts of the country. Apparently, one of the pointers of the election is that our democracy may well still be nascent. The security lapse was obviously unforeseen by the authorities, and consequent loss of life and property was beyond the competence of those who should have ensured such incidents do not occur or are nipped in the bud early enough; but then, that has been our story as far as unrest in the north is concerned. This poses a fear for what the security implications of a Fashola failure at the polls might be. It is to be expected that if Fashola loses, certain segments of the population will not take it eating boli and epa, sipping pure water under a mango tree. But, since the security agencies have found no answer to the volatile tendencies of the north, it is a tempting thought that they will be nonplussed at similar security threats in Lagos.

If Fashola loses at the polls, we may get a new and improved blueprint for the development of Lagos State. That Fashola is a progressive is not in doubt, and neither is the fact that he has lofty ideas as far as the city of Lagos is concerned. However, it is also a fact that he is not the only one capable of this. In fact, whatever he is capable of, there is at least one other person capable of more. That said, a new plan, albeit better, may set us back a while. It would require new drawings, maybe new paintings for our BRT busses which may also require a re-christening. The revoking and re-awarding of contracts may also slow down the completion of certain projects, not to mention the crisis likely to erupt with the Lekki Expressway.

With all said, Lagosians should go out and vote come Saturday – as we say these days – for their conscience. But it would be wise, not to mention safe, if we were to consider the possible outcomes of Fashola losing.

Fashola’s failure to return would reveal a different side to the Lagos voters

It won't be a surprise. Rumour has it that Tinubu has mortgaged the SW in exchange for the slots of Minister of Petroleum, Attorney-General, EFCC boss and some oil blocks + a shot at the Presidency in 2015. GEJ is said to have convinced him with the argument that ', OBJ is your enemy, not PDP'