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Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings - Politics (4) - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings (11550 Views)

Labour Fumes As FG Stops N35,000 Award Payment / Subsidy: Labour Leaders Walk Out Of Aso Rock Meeting, Accuse FG Of Deceit / Lagos Governmenr Urges Calm, Warns Against Fresh Protests (2) (3) (4)

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Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by adamsmith914: 3:02pm On Feb 22, 2022
DannyXpress:
I just have one question

Who is going to repay all these loans back after this man leaves office...?
Who will pay the loan your state Government took?
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by Nobody: 3:43pm On Feb 22, 2022
quentin06:

Subsidy does not exist, its a scam.
There never was subsidy, asked you beloved govt why they can't repair our refineries?
Why are they waiting for one man in Lagos to build his own?
IMF is responsible for our problems, giving loans to an irresponsible govt.

Good afternoon, and good luck.
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by Tianamen1: 4:54pm On Feb 22, 2022
ISSUES FROM THE ARTICLE

1. if we remove subsidies, inflation would occur which may lead to a fall in the value of the naira.

2. if we keep borrowing from our central bank for subsidy payments or any other reason, a Venezuela style collapse of the naira may be loading.

3. poverty keeps rising and insecurity is also rising. Nigeria is indeed between a rock and a hard place.


SOLUTION

1. raise taxes on the rich as this would reduce their disposable income thereby reduce the constant pressure on the naira. taxes on property, clothes, watches, phones, etc, should be increased. this is deflationary in nature

2. Remove subsidies which as earlier stated, would lead to inflation, thus more poverty and insecurity. use tax income to fund quality basic education, thus increasing the disposable income of middle income families.

Nigeria, same issues perennially, and the same solutions too.
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by ledaman: 5:40pm On Feb 22, 2022
DannyXpress:
I just have one question

Who is going to repay all these loans back after this man leaves office...?
Tax payer
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by uche92(m): 5:53pm On Feb 22, 2022
When the IMF talks, to some it sounds like they are against Nigeria. But it’ll get to a point where Nigeria may not be able to service it’s external debt and once it defaults on its loans, it’s creditworthiness ratings fail, that’s when the real trouble sets in. With no external creditors, the government will have no other choice but to print more money which they are already doing -> hyperinflation. Everyone thinks what happens in Zimbabwe happened magically overnight? This is the same story unfolding

2 Likes

Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by Nobody: 6:34pm On Feb 22, 2022
connkg:
@backbencher

The government has given out licenses for private refineries. The PIA is to clean up the supply chain and help regulate the practice.
My opinion is that the issue begins with the deniability of this administration, all the way to not borrowing to drive the economy, when it was early (The VP claimed during his re-election debate that there was no need to borrow, that the country was doing well and had even shut down some Asian rice mills)
I do not agree that the President/ Minister of Petroleum was instructed by Messrs. Kachikwu or Emefiele, as he touted his PTDF experience with Prof. Tam David West.

Not being truthful and actually denying the problem has brought us this far. We can only correct this by truth and competence. Competence still the way to the top, as in, not looking for a technocrat to lord-over with ethnicity and nepotism.

The yet-to-be-fully- implemented minimum wage must be addressed. It is much more effective than SURE-P or N5,000 to the "poorest of the poor" for 6 months. True population numbers must be used to provide succor. We must have the whole truth to deal with this.
Failing here, we fail everywhere.



Okay, let's back up a bit.

This is not about who is in charge of NNPC, Buhari, South vs North, GEJ, PDP and APC, etc.

At the heart of the subsidy removal argument is the simple thing......in order to make it in business, any business, you have to sell at a profit.


And that goes for petrol selling.


Here is the thing. NNPC brings petrol into this country right now at N282 (in 2015 it was N132, and in 2012 it was N99) per liter.

NNPC and the marketers then sell that fuel at N163 (in 2015 it was N87 and in 2011 it was N65 ) per liter.

To cover that loss, we pay the difference between the landing cost and the cost at the pump. THAT is WHAT is called the subsidy. And the subsidy rises when the cost of producing that crude oil, petrol, etc rises.

Gowon brought in the subsidy in 1973 because in 1973, thanks to the Yom Kippur war, fuel prices were rising because oil prices rose...and stayed high till 1982, when they crashed, and remained low till 2006/7 when they rose again.

The problem with subsidy is that everything...cost of crude oil, cost of refining petrol...rises. And the subsidy rises as well. That's why our subsidy costs rose from N1 trillion in 2019 to N3 trillion now, and why prices have to go up...because we have to reduce subsidy costs from time to time...and why we no longer pay N65 for fuel, or the 15 Kobo we paid in 1981.

Second problem is subsidy money comes from crude oil revenue...the same crude oil revenue we used for our budget. Oil prices have been so fluctuant that we never ever have enough to pay for subsides, so we borrow.

At the end, subsides due to their rising cost and due to poor base of revenue have been difficult for us to maintain. That is why every nnpc boss has advised the leader of this country for nearly 3-4 decades....to stop the subsidy monster. But at the end of the day, people want cheap fuel prices, so governments don;t listen to them

Yes, Nigerians, like you and me, are the ones responsible for the subsidy mess. Our inssitence on cheap fuel is why we do not have refineries, why we are going to spend more than 3 trillion funding subsides, meaning we cannot see the benefit of the rising oil prices, why we cannot even have investment in more refinereis apart from the six going up, and why we get into more and more debt, and why we use dirty fuel insteand of premium fuel.

That's why your arguments really don't matter...I'm sorry to say that, and I do not mean to be rude...but your argument does not matter. You cannot sell fuel at a loss, and expect an industry to be free of corruption and all the mess therein. You cannot oppose government setting the prices your business sets....and then support the same for the petroleum industry.

And that is what I want you to see. It is not about politics, who is appointed, even the whole 'helping the poor....because are we helping the poor with more debt and reduced spending on health and education and so on...because we have to pay subsidy?


Let's remove subsidy. The oil industry will earn the profits needed to fix things, government would save money , and anyway, the value of the naira would go up because we save forex. We've wrecked our economy long enough.

1 Like

Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by bjtinz: 6:53pm On Feb 22, 2022
backbencher:


Ultimately all people see is the potential rise in food prices and other prices ( eg cost of photocopying stuff could rise because your guy running the photocopiers uses petrol generator as power source)

Thats why subsidy removal is a scary proposition to most

Yeah, but we have to make difficult choices. Like I said people are currently paying as much as 400 per litre. Yes its scary, but the alternative is no better.

We are literally borrowing ourselves into stupor to maintain an ever ballooning, unsustainable subsidy monster. It simply cannot go on.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by bjtinz: 6:55pm On Feb 22, 2022
backbencher:




Okay, let's back up a bit.

This is not about who is in charge of NNPC, Buhari, South vs North, GEJ, PDP and APC, etc.

At the heart of the subsidy removal argument is the simple thing......in order to make it in business, any business, you have to sell at a profit.


And that goes for petrol selling.


Here is the thing. NNPC brings petrol into this country right now at N282 (in 2015 it was N132, and in 2012 it was N99) per liter.

NNPC and the marketers then sell that fuel at N163 (in 2015 it was N87 and in 2011 it was N65 ) per liter.

To cover that loss, we pay the difference between the landing cost and the cost at the pump. THAT is WHAT is called the subsidy. And the subsidy rises when the cost of producing that crude oil, petrol, etc rises.

Gowon brought in the subsidy in 1973 because in 1973, thanks to the Yom Kippur war, fuel prices were rising because oil prices rose...and stayed high till 1982, when they crashed, and remained low till 2006/7 when they rose again.

The problem with subsidy is that everything...cost of crude oil, cost of refining petrol...rises. And the subsidy rises as well. That's why our subsidy costs rose from N1 trillion in 2019 to N3 trillion now, and why prices have to go up...because we have to reduce subsidy costs from time to time...and why we no longer pay N65 for fuel, or the 15 Kobo we paid in 1981.

Second problem is subsidy money comes from crude oil revenue...the same crude oil revenue we used for our budget. Oil prices have been so fluctuant that we never ever have enough to pay for subsides, so we borrow.

At the end, subsides due to their rising cost and due to poor base of revenue have been difficult for us to maintain. That is why every nnpc boss has advised the leader of this country for nearly 3-4 decades....to stop the subsidy monster. But at the end of the day, people want cheap fuel prices, so governments don;t listen to them

Yes, Nigerians, like you and me, are the ones responsible for the subsidy mess. Our inssitence on cheap fuel is why we do not have refineries, why we are going to spend more than 3 trillion funding subsides, meaning we cannot see the benefit of the rising oil prices, why we cannot even have investment in more refinereis apart from the six going up, and why we get into more and more debt, and why we use dirty fuel insteand of premium fuel.

That's why your arguments really don't matter...I'm sorry to say that, and I do not mean to be rude...but your argument does not matter. You cannot sell fuel at a loss, and expect an industry to be free of corruption and all the mess therein. You cannot oppose government setting the prices your business sets....and then support the same for the petroleum industry.

And that is what I want you to see. It is not about politics, who is appointed, even the whole 'helping the poor....because are we helping the poor with more debt and reduced spending on health and education and so on...because we have to pay subsidy?


Let's remove subsidy. The oil industry will earn the profits needed to fix things, government would save money , and anyway, the value of the naira would go up because we save forex. We've wrecked our economy long enough.

Great analysis!

2 Likes

Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by Nobody: 7:16pm On Feb 22, 2022
The one to come after PMB has a lot of work to do already. The kind gbese he will inherit ehn, he should better be tactful enough and look for means to offset those debts whilst improving the country's economy. Or he may choose to plunge the country into further ruined but God Forbid.
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by Panda7(m): 7:45pm On Feb 22, 2022
cluelessness, how can Nigeria not produce its economy with everything amass in it or what are they importing?? we are still here to see where Nigeria go from here. each regime come and go yet the living condition keeps deteriorating. how can each region not manage its economy, resources and production. Central Government policies clearly doesn't favor everyone and everyplace. Power should decentralize . If people from the north keep taking the economy of the south then the north economy potential cannot be harness since it is still a dependent economy and then the corruption from the people in the government, if you keep stealing and hiding their economy how can the people live without vices, militias bandits and terrorism in hunger and starvation and idleness. The clock keeps ticking and we can't tell what is coming by tomorrow.
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by Innomach(m): 6:59am On Feb 23, 2022
backbencher:
The problem with the subsidy is that the more the difference between the cost of production and the pump price government sets, the more the susbidy rises.


Now that oil prices is nearly $100.....Landing cost is also going to rise to N300 and above. Meanwhile, we are selling the same fuel we spend N300 on to import at N162 PER liter.

Meaning that in one year, landing costs have gone up from N232 to N282.....to N300

At the end, the cost of subsidy is also going to shoot up....meaning we would take money from other sectors to pay for the subsidy, or we take more and more loans.

Which spells bad news for our economy


Subsidy must go. No buts...because as oil prices increases, the cost of subsidsing fuel is going to rise. And we may end up spending more than the N3 trillion earmarked this year.

Why can't the more profit they make as price of crude oil rises be used to subsidize PMS? Why do they need to borrow more. Are we no longer an oil producing nation? You guys speak as if Nigeria looses instead of gaining more when the price of crude rises in international market. Since they prefer importing refined products of petroleum products, let them use the difference they make to subsidize. After all, they only subsidizes PMS. I really don't understand how things work here. We lament when the price is down, lament when the price goes up.
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by Nobody: 7:43am On Feb 23, 2022
Innomach:


Why can't the more profit they make as price of crude oil rises be used to subsidize PMS? Why do they need to borrow more. Are we no longer an oil producing nation? You guys speak as if Nigeria looses instead of gaining more when the price of crude rises in international market. Since they prefer importing refined products of petroleum products, let them use the difference they make to subsidize. After all, they only subsidizes PMS. I really don't understand how things work here. We lament when the price is down, lament when the price goes up.

1.Nigeria already subsidies fuel from any profit we make from crude oil sales.

2.Keep in mind that the cost of one liter of fuel includes the cost of crude oil at the international market. Thus, fuel prices rise when crude oil prices rise.

3.SUBSIDY...is the AMOUNT of money paid to cover the losses resulting from selling fuel below the production cost. Right now our production cost is N282, while the government set price of fuel is N162, meaning we pay subsides of N119-20 per liter of fuel sold.

4.As oil prices rise, so does the cost of crude oil , and so does any subsidy paid.

eg: In 2021, crude oil prices was around $70, production cost of PMS was N232 (Landing cost actually, which is production cost plus transport cost) and fuel price was N162. Now oil prices is $100, produciton cost is nearing N300, and we still sell fuel at N162.

Thus while we paid a subsidy of 70 naira in June 2021 per liter of fuel sold, we are now paying something close to N120-140 per liter now. Thanks to rising costs of subsidsing fuel.

5.Naturally, these eat into any profits made by selling crude oil

(As a reminder, it is the reason why GEJ wanted to get rid of subsides totally. Because of protests by Nigerians, GEJ retained the subsidy. The result...the chronically high oil prices of 2011-14 meant we spent an increasing amount of our money on subsides...meaning we had little left over to save. By 2015, our forex reserves went down from 60 billion to 32 billion, and by 2016, it was down to 28 billion. Subsidy was partially removed by Bubu, and forex reserves went up again, as a result)


6.Government does not only subsidise PMS, they also subsidize education (which is why you don't pay the kind of fees they pay in places like Corona school, Lagos, or Covenant university when you attend a government school or university) and health (which is why a woman undergoing a caesarean does not pay as high as 4 million naira in a government hospital, and then there is NHIS which massively subsidses drugs). They also to some extent subsidse fertiliser, and water supply. They do not toll roads at all, and electricity is heavily subsidsed (which is why electricity companies run at a loss, but that is another story)

7.We take loans because oil prices are never as high as they should be.

Nigeria is an oil producing nation , but because of our large populaiton (and things like insecurity, and poor business enviroment) we need to sell oil at a cost above $130 per barrel to have a sustainable budget. It's called our fiscal breakeven crude oil price, and it is the fact that oil has never ever been at our fiscal breakeven that forces us to take loans.

Under Buhari, oil has been under $80, and as low as $20-30. Meanwhile our fiscal breakeven crude oil price has been as high as $139 (2017) and $133 (2021). If we don't borrow, we would have been in serious trobule. (Worse than what we have now).Even under GEJ, our fiscal breakeven was $122, and oil was from 2011-14 between 91-120 dollars, rarely rising above $130..and forcing gej to take loans too. Also many past leaders.

Also, Nigeria has a poor tax record. Most VAT in Nigeria is under collected, and un reported (and the law governing vat is not too clear either), our tax to gdp ratio is 8% (Ghana is 24%, South Africa 24%, Niger republic 15%) and 30 % of taxable Nigerians pay income taxes to state and FG. Had our tax record been better, we would have had more funds to pay for subsides (and even then, it may not be enough. Ghana has cut subsides drastically since 2011 on fuel )

We also have a poorly diversified economy, and despite all the propaganda about rice, we are still underproducing to the tune of 2bn tonnes (and still have to import) as an example. We haven't earned more from things like minerals, cash crops, etc. And we are far from being an industrial power .So, we end up relying more on oil, and loans to fund our subsides and so forth


At the end, even with the rise in oil prices, we have to

1.Pay off past loans, taken when oil prices were too too low.

2.Pay for subsides at an increasing cost

3.Which means we see no benefit from rising prices.

At the end, it is either the subsidy is removed, totally, or partially, or every taxable Nigerian pays taxes as and at when due, or we beg Mama World Bank and Lord Xu for more and more loans.
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by TechspeciaIist(m): 10:24am On Feb 24, 2022
shevchenko:


All his houses and his bank account we are going to confiscate it
shevchenko you dey Ukraine?
Give us update na and scores, who dey lead?
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by blackpanda: 2:22am On Feb 25, 2022
lexy2014:


The Federal Government’s total borrowing from the CBN through Ways and Means Advances had ballooned by 2,286 per cent to N15.51tn in six years, according to the central bank data.

theraregem1 okefranci nonpartisan1 buckeyemedia1 Nigerialabalaba shooyie benuejosh blackpanda vedaxcool NGpatriot presidency lovenorth officialgarri seunmsg....am sure u guys understand the implication of this? Can u guys explain where the N15.5t went to? What did buhari/osinbajo do with $15.5t in 6years?

You are already using the infrastructure the money was spent on. But of course just love to nag for no reason
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by lexy2014: 4:27am On Feb 25, 2022
blackpanda:


You are already using the infrastructure the money was spent on. But of course just love to nag for no reason

Which infrastructure was it spent on that u say that I am using?
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by crossfire(m): 5:41am On Feb 25, 2022
backbencher:


They are borrowing , in part, because you guys want cheap fuel

In 2020, LANDING cost of fuel, at the height of covid was N120-125 per liter. Now, that landing cost is N282....AND rising.

Meanwhile, fuel pump price has gone up from N124 per liter at covid to N163 now. Guy no talk wetin go vex me,wat has federal government done with the 25 billion dollars they borrowed for turn around maintenance

Government has to pay the difference between N282 and N163 to ensure fuel stays at N163.

And that's where the money that would have built refinereis goes to...subsidy...to keeping the petroluem industry from collapsing.

And as the cost rises, the money will come from other sectors of the budget...so we have to take loans to make up for it.

Ten years ago, we ran through our earnings and our forex reserves to pay for the same subsidy.

See the problem. ?

There is no such thing as cheap fuel.
Re: Fuel Subsidy: Labour Fumes As IMF Warns FG Against Fresh Borrowings by connkg(m): 12:18pm On Feb 28, 2022
@backbencher

You're taking coal to Newcastle.

The reason the subsidy removal didn't work before wasn't the lack of a PIA. It wasn't because it wasn't understood by those in charge.
The previous subsidy removal failed because of political and ethnic colouration. That's my point.
Having pushed the date forward, how do we get rid of political and ethnic colouration, while ensuring that the anticipated gains are purposefully utilised?
The date to remove it is yesterday. Sparking off political (and ethnic) coloured protests, aside the expected Labour protest is an unwelcome challenge...which this administration used.

Addressing Labour's demand on subsidy means revisiting the minimum wage.

Nigeria cannot have false and petty interests again, in the incoming administration. The first sign of such false and petty interest is placing a technocrat from one ethnic group in "apparent" charge, while making sure a 'more loyal' ethnic group personality oversees.
Let it all the run by technocrats.

Towards the end of the last administration, Nigeria was saving Excess Crude funds at over USD 100. Claiming corruption for sharing it to the States, we are at this point again.
Difference is, now we aren't even making savings.
Politics and ethnicity need to be removed, so a Finance Minister works freely with a Petroleum Minister using true and exact figures.

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