POWER WILL NOT LEAVE THE NORTH IN THE NEXT THREE DECADES
By Muhammad Lamido Sanusi
Newspot Nigeria
April 21, 2022

..…Bola Tinubu made political miscalculation in 2015 to support Buhari

“As it concerns the 2023 presidency, it should be clear to anyone with a functioning brain that President Buhari’s North has no intention of relinquishing power to the South-West or any zone for that matter. What many may not have realised, however, is that for the next three decades at least, if ever, and should Nigeria remain one, power will not leave the North. But in projecting, one must always leave space for the law of unintended consequences and the God factor. “

The godfather of Lagos politics, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in 2015 led the South-West into an alliance with the North to birth the All Progressive Alliance (APC). His decision, evidently, was informed by the expectation that the two geopolitical regions will share power, invariably to the exclusion of the Eastern bloc. And ultimately that he, or the South-West, will take power by the time the North completes two terms in 2023. But it has proved to be a miscalculation.

Certainly, power play is about conspiracies and alliances. Tinubu is well within his right to do what he thought would best advance his political interest and that of his region. However, in backing President Muhammadu Buhari, he cut his nose to spite his face.

It may not have seemed obvious to many, but once Buhari took power in 2015, Tinubu’s political career was in jeopardy.

To navigate the presidency without bruises, the best Tinubu could have done was to retire from active politics and assume the role of an elder statesman. He did not, he stayed on, wanting to be president and pushing hard to remain at the centre of political discourse. But power is jealous, and if there is any holder of the highest office in the land who would tolerate a co-president, it is not Buhari. Things are beginning to unravel, fast.

Without Tinubu, and by extension the South-West, Buhari could not have been president today. This is one fact that president’s men who now dominate the political space and brook no opposition will hate to admit, but it remains true, regardless.

But being essentially Buhari’s kingmaker, it was political naivety to decide to hang around in the expectation that he would share power. The old Machiavellian advice is that the prince must first destroy the one who made him king. Reason? Because he could decide tomorrow to make another king.

Writing in The Prince, the legendary Niccolo Machiavelli noted “…he who is the cause of another becoming powerful is ruined; because that predominancy has been brought about by astuteness or else by force, and both are distrusted by him who has been raised to power.”

Of course, it should have been obvious that, in helping to make Buhari president, Tinubu was jeopardizing his political career and plunging the South-West, and by extension Southern Nigeria, into political slavery whose only parallel in the country’s political history is the late Emeka Ojukwu leading the Igbo to war in 1967.

With respect to the Biafra War, blaming Ojukwu for embarking on it could earn one exile in the Igbo country. But if truth be told, the war was avoidable and could have been avoided if Ojukwu had not been too stiff to listen to the likes of Zik and other intellectuals who understood better, international politics and diplomacy. This is not to say, nonetheless, that Ojukwu was not sufficiently provoked by the killings of the Igbo in the North in the aftermath of the July 1966 revenge coup that threw up Yakubu Gowon as head of state, and indeed the actions – or lack of it – of the Gowon-led federal side. Regardless, it was still in his hands to accept to fight or toe the path of diplomacy which, given the circumstances, was the best option and the only way to win international support for his secession quest. In the event, he went to war and only succeeded in sacrificing more Igbo lives and weakening the Igbo politically.

The consequence of that weakening is that it provided fertile ground for the emergence of hegemonic Northern power. The imbalance so created is largely responsible for the crisis of Nigeria’s national identity. One mistake many Nigerians, particularly in the South, make is the assumption that the country is already formed and settled as a secular state. It’s not the case. There is the ever present quest to define the country right, of course, from the 1804 jihad.

Colonial rule put a stop to it, then in the post-war years, the Middle Belt soldiers who dominated the army acted as a wedge. Tinubu’s alliance with Buhari has served to reenact that quest. Buhari is now, apparently, out to define the country. The Jagaban’s political miscalculation could yet prove too costly.

The old generals who, I reckon, understand this are already raising the alarm. But of course, the horde of naive, ignorant online crowd of crumb eaters are blurring the resistance line.

As it concerns the 2023 presidency, it should be clear to anyone with a functioning brain that President Buhari’s North has no intention of relinquishing power to the South-West or any zone for that matter. What many may not have realised, however, is that for the next three decades at least, if ever, and should Nigeria remain one, power will not leave the North. But in projecting, one must always leave space for the law of unintended consequences and the God factor.

But given Buhari’s antecedents, was there any grounds for the South-West, particularly, to have given him benefit of the doubt in 2015? Absolutely none in my reckoning. However, it would appear that emotion rather than sound political calculation informed their support for Buhari in 2015. It was, perhaps, more to spite the East than love for Buhari. I had been amazed when, in the heat of the moment in 2015, before the election, the news editor of my then media platform branded a fellow reporter who didn’t buy into the Buhari presidential project a “bloody b*stard who is following the Igbo people to betray Yoruba by supporting Jonathan.”

In the lead up to the 2019 polls, I had on several occasions engaged my landlord – a backer of Buhari’s second term project who loves to discuss politics with me – on who between Atiku Abubakar and the President would make a better leader. My insistence was, of course, that Atiku would. After we exhausted all manner of issues he raised against the former vice president, he said finally that he would still back Buhari because Atiku was an “Omo Igbo project” and that “after Buhari, Yoruba will take power and after Yoruba, Hausa will take power again.” According to him, “we will be rotating it like that, Igbo people will never smell that place.” I had more of pity for his ignorance.

When in 2003, Buhari joined presidential race, he did so, apparently, to stop the then president, Olusegun Obasanjo. Not because Obasanjo had performed badly as president, having taken power with the return of democracy in 1999, but because Buhari and the section of the North he represented believed that power had to return to the region.

In settling for Obasanjo in 1998/99, the intention of the Northern military class was for him to do four years as compensation for MKO Abiola – the Yoruba had become uncontrollably agitated – and hand power back to the North. But not long after Obasanjo took power, it became clear that he was never going to leave it for anybody. This realisation led to agitations; criticisms of the Obasanjo government was swift in the north, the climax of which was the Sharia crisis of 2000. To take power, however, the anti-Obasanjo forces in the North knew that ultimately, it was about going to challenge him at the polls. Buhari emerged as the arrow head of that challenge. And through speeches and actions that appealed to regional sentiments, he built a cult following that saw him win elections convincingly in the North right from 2003.

Until 2014/15, Buhari was a regional hero who believed he could become president by winning elections in the North and never thought seriously about campaigning in the South. However, in 2014/15, the Tinubu led South-West gave him an undeserved national platform, and through heavy media propaganda, dressed him in the robe of a born again democrat. But old habits die hard.

Once in power, Buhari did not hesitate to take off the borrowed garb of a nationalist and democrat to put on his original robe of sectionalism. Right from his first set of appointments, he made clear his intentions. And as it stands, he has completely consolidated power in the hands of the North.

Buhari is an idealogue; usually idealogues are very resolute and persistent people. Say what you will, he is doubling down on nepotism. Shout ‘Fulanisation’ or ‘Islamisation’ all you will, he will only look for a hate speech bill or social media bill to shut you up rather than re-examine his ‘hate’ policies.

Possibly, when Buhari is done with the country – if he has his way – no Southerner will, on the basis of an election, ever become president except at the behest of the North. By suppressing votes in the South and inflating figures in the North, the administration is only trying to establish a pattern – a dangerous pattern which supporters of his party in the South are evidently too blind to see.

It is clear to the discerning where the president is headed. But the question is whether he would succeed. I had pointed out elsewhere that the project would fail, ultimately, because Nigerians are too many to be subjugated.

It would seem, from the actions of those controlling the levers of power, that there is an attempt to precipitate a national crisis with a view to using force to take over the country. But, of course, this is a country of 200 million people. The advantage those who have a “legitimate” right to bear arms are enjoying at the moment would be lost if there is a total breakdown of law and order. And the country would break into fractions controlled by warlords, such that it would take a miracle to have it again as one stable country for anyone to control.

*By Sanusi Muhammad.*


https://newspotng.com/power-will-not-leave-the-north-in-the-next-three-decades-by-muhammad-lamido-sanusi/

The North can only borrow the South the Presidency for four years if the pressure becomes too much. That’s where GEJ comes in.

When we told them they thought we were lying

Smh

Only a united south can take power from north and because of greed of yorubas and the likes of wike /Udom south is not united

Not has absolutely no reason to hand over to a southerner ..no reason at all

Its clear they are heading for a massive destruction. Me personally no like NORTHERN rule again. Igbo presidency for 30yrs. We must fix Nigeria from the terrorists

"The old generals who, I reckon, understand this are already raising the alarm. But of course, the horde of naive, ignorant online crowd of crumb eaters are blurring the resistance line".


BMC îmbeciles and Tinubu urchins in the mud, it's sad that we all have to face the consequences of their pathetic hunger and greed

It's unfolding gradually

They will see what we saw and refused to support bubu

Personal opinion

2023 is an election of the North. Any candidate the North selects, wins. I dare remind Tinubu's urchins, the north are not swayed by money. If they were, Atiku would have won the north flawlessly, and in variably, won the elections of 2019. Tinubu's money has no hold on northerners. They will vote for their interests and money is not one of theirs.

There is nothing like south here...

it is the turn of South East to produce the president...
notherners can't eat their cake and have it back...you guys should stop arrogating powers to the notherners.

One thing I know is that if the north tries to play smart and hold on to power, Nigeria will split and there's no two ways about it. So for those of you shouting the north holds power so get ready for a break up in your own face.

mrvitalis:
When we told them they thought we were lying

Smh

Only a united south can take power from north and because of greed of yorubas and the likes of wike /Udom south is not united

Not has absolutely no reason to hand over to a southerner ..no reason at all

Buhari will handover power to Tinubu next year.

Sanusi Muhammed is unknown and inconsequential.

I wander why people like you see Northerners as gods Anything a Northerner talk, you go start supporting the Northerner, it does not matter if the Northerner is inconsequential.

Oya tell me who is this Sanusi Muhammad?

Normal

Parachoko:
Buhari will handover power to Tinubu next year.

Sanusi Muhammed is unknown and inconsequential.

I wander why people like you see Northerners as gods. Anything a Northerner talk, you go start supporting the Northerner, it does not matter if the Northerner is inconsequential.

How did you know Buhari will hand over power to Tinubu, are you Buhari himself? That aside North is already fxxked once a southerner gets to power so all this Northern rubbish holding on to power holds no water.

Parachoko:
Buhari will handover power to Tinubu next year.

Sanusi Muhammed is unknown and inconsequential.

I wander why people like you see Northerners as gods Anything a Northerner talk, you go start supporting the Northerner, it does not matter if the Northerner is inconsequential.

Oya tell me who is this Sanusi Muhammad?

Why didn't tinubu contest in 2015

OKOATA:
How did you know Buhari will hand over power to Tinubu, are you Buhari himself? That aside North is already fxxked once a southerner gets to power so all this Northern rubbish holding on to power holds no water.

I'm talking base on If Tinubu or any other Southerner win the presidential election.

If Tinubu wins Buhari will handover or If Wike win, Buhari will still handover to Wike.

It does not matter whether anybody Knows what's on Buhari mind. Buhari will handover power.

mrvitalis:

Why didn't tinubu contest in 2015

Why Obi no contest in 2019?

mrvitalis:
When we told them they thought we were lying

Smh

Only a united south can take power from north and because of greed of yorubas and the likes of wike /Udom south is not united

Not has absolutely no reason to hand over to a southerner ..no reason at all

You're still in talking about a United South after this:

"The godfather of Lagos politics, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in 2015 led the South-West into an alliance with the North to birth the All Progressive Alliance (APC). His decision, evidently, was informed by the expectation that the two geopolitical regions will share power, invariably to the exclusion of the Eastern bloc. And ultimately that he, or the South-West, will take power by the time the North completes two terms in 2023. But it has proved to be a miscalculation."

Some of us from the rest of the "realistic South" can be carried away like Bola Tinupoo and co sometimes. There is nothing like Southern Nigeria! It has never existed in modern Nigeria. The earlier the people of the south east and the south south realize this, the better for all of us.. The South West seems to be totally enmeshed in the business of truncating the political fortunes of the South East. They are also desperate to loot the oil resources of the former Eastern Nigeria just like the north! So where is the common ground as "southerners".

The South West got us all into this mess because of their unending desperation to hyjack everything that is deu the South. They couldn't stand Jonathan and have to use their media and treacherous politics to unravel his administration. They will do so again if the opportunity arises. The best alternative for the former Eastern Nigeria is to approach the emerging political war as a unit and only use the South West as allies when convenient! Discard them like tissue papers as quick as you are done with them because their vaulting political ambitions will always encourage them to attack you from behind at your weakest moments..

Look and they say no Goodnews in Nigeria anymore, we need a Christian Northerner, please make it happen oh.

Parachoko:
I'm talking base on If Tinubu or any other Southerner win the presidential election.

If Tinubu wins Buhari will handover or If Wike win, Buhari will still handover to Wike.

It does not matter whether anybody Knows what's on Buhari mind. Buhari will handover power.

That's what you will say but please if you support Tinubu that's your opinion, No Nigerian will still want a disaster, Tinubu foisted Buhari on Nigerians and Nigerians won't be daft to recruit such a predecessor. Like you rightly said, a winner from APC or PDP election gets the presidency but if North near am or make one peme noise they should kiss Nigeria goodbye.

Parachoko:
Why Obi no contest in 2019?

He was a vice presidential candidate ...of a major party something tinubu would never be or surpass

mrvitalis:

He was a vice presidential candidate ...of a major party something tinubu would never be or surpass

He was appointed to become the Vice President by Atiku and he lost alongside Atiku.

Tinubu will get the APC ticket while Obi won't be among the top 5 in PDP.

Contesting for the presidential ticket in PDP will be one of his achievement soon.

ityP:
2023 is an election of the North. Any candidate the North selects, wins. I dare remind Tinubu's urchins, the north are not swayed by money. If they were, Atiku would have won the north flawlessly, and in variably, won the elections of 2019. Tinubu's money has no hold on northerners. They will vote for their interests and money is not one of theirs.

North doesn't own Nigeria, Nigeria isn't anyone's birthright, talking as if the south doesn't have brain at all, yes south might be divided and that's because we want the right things to be done and put in place, what about the north that are one, look at how wretched their cursed citizens are, in all of the insecurities you dare not protests, they all will tell you it's all Allah's doing for the sufferings, if North plays smart or want to hold on to power Nigeria will break, just remember the crude oil they depend on will be shut off, it's not kuku on their territory. North is a baby beside the South.

Nonsense!

Parachoko:
He was appointed to become the Vice President by Atiku. And he lost alongside Atiku.

Tinubu will get the APC ticket while Obi won't even be among the top 5 in PDP.

Contesting as a presidential candidate in PDP primary will be one of his achievement.

Tinubu will? Till then
1999 when tinubu was leaving in a rented building Peter obi was already the chairman of his bank ,board member in over multinational companies , billionaire in naira ..... having 10s of millions of pounds as over drafts in his uk accounts

There is absolutely no "legal " thing you can compare tinubu to Peter obi absolutely none

Name one successful business tinubu owned before he became governor

OKOATA:
North doesn't own Nigeria, Nigeria isn't anyone's birthright, talking as if the south doesn't have brain at all, yes south might be divided and that's because we want the right things to be done and put in place, what about the north that are one, look at how wretched their cursed citizens are, in all of the insecurities you dare not protests, they all will tell you it's all Allah's doing for the sufferings, if North plays smart or want to hold on to power Nigeria will break, just remember the crude oil they depend on will be shut off, it's not kuku on their territory. North is a baby beside the South.

You are talking tomuch

Oya tell us ...what would yorubas do if north decide to back Jonathan ?

You call your selfs smart but you only hope of becoming president is hinged on one thing and one thing alone northern support for you

That will be nice... Igbo presidence or power stays in the north

The Article was not written by Sanusi Lamido, it was written by an igbo man. Igbos should be bold enough to append their names on those false articles circulating online, instead of attributing it to other tribes. They should stop acting cowardly.

mrvitalis:

You are talking tomuch

Oya tell us ...what would yorubas do if north decide to back Jonathan ?

You call your selfs smart but you only hope of becoming president is hinged on one thing and one thing alone northern support for you

Under which party would Jonathan campaign on? APC? I guess it's dead on arrival for him, if you think it will be a flawless victory you are mistaken, If you guys think APC will win the coming elections feuding Jonathan you will be in for a surprise package.

mrvitalis:
When we told them they thought we were lying

Smh

Only a united south can take power from north and because of greed of yorubas and the likes of wike /Udom south is not united

Not has absolutely no reason to hand over to a southerner ..no reason at all

What have you read from a nobody to make u think you were right? Anyone can write anything but events will prove whether he is right or wrong.

OKOATA:
One thing I know is that if the north tries to play smart and hold on to power, Nigeria will split and there's no two ways about it. So for those of you shouting the north holds power so get ready for a break up in your own face.

Shatap there

Siwel25:


What have you read from a nobody to make u think you were right? Anyone can write anything but events will prove whether he is right or wrong.

By this time next year let's talk