A total of 14 aspirants from the six geo-political zones remain in the PDP presidential race, reflecting the party’s decision to jettison zoning and throw the primary open.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will hold its presidential primary between Saturday and Sunday to elect its flag bearer for the 2023 presidential election.



Delegates elected from across the country will gather at the Moshood Abiola National Stadium in Abuja at the National Convention of the opposition party where they will pick from a list of 14 aspirants remaining in the race.

Seventeen aspirants had paid N40 million each to participate in the primary, but two – Cosmas Ndukwe, a former lawmaker, and Nwachukwu Anakwenze, a US-based medical doctor – were disqualified by the screening committee headed by a former Senate President, David Mark, while the vice-presidential candidate of the party at the 2019 election, Peter Obi, on Tuesday pulled out of the race and resigned his membership of the PDP.

The 14 other cleared aspirants have since been meeting party delegates, governors and party leaders across the country.

They are Tariela Oliver, the only female among them; Governors Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto, Bala Mohammed of Bauchi, and Udom Emmanuel of Akwa Ibom; as well as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and investment banker Mohammed Hayatu-Deen.

Others are two former senate presidents, Bukola Saraki and Pius Anyim; former governor of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose; and a publisher, Dele Momodu. Also in the race are a pharmacist, Sam Ohabunwa; Charles Ugwu and Chikwendu Kalu.

The aspirants are from the six geo-political zones of Nigeria, reflecting the party’s decision to jettison zoning and throw the primary open.

The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Debo Olonunnagba, had said the party’s decision was based on recommendations made by a committee headed by Benue State governor, Samuel Ortom. The committee was set up by the party to advise on the issue.

Before the decision, southern leaders of the party had demanded that the ticket be zoned to their region, but the northern leaders wanted an open race.

A day before the National Convention, PROUDLYMP3 examines the 14 aspirants and their chances at the primary.

Atiku Abubakar
The party’s presidential candidate in 2019 is taking his sixth shot at the presidency, a quest he began in 1993 under the short-lived Third Republic.

As a former vice president and one of the founders of the PDP, Mr Abubakar has associates and supporters across Nigeria. In the 2019 election, he got over 11 million votes; returning second behind President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

He still enjoys strong support in states like Adamawa, Taraba, Gombe, Borno and others. He also has a deep pocket, a crucial point in a national campaign in a vast country like Nigeria where politics is also heavily monetised.

However, Mr Abubakar will most likely struggle for a share of the votes from the home states of his rivals like Mr Saraki and the state governors, and also in the South-east where there is strong advocacy for zoning.

Analysts say a major reason Mr Abubakar got solid support from the South-east in 2019 was because of the presence of Mr Obi on his ticket as his running mate. This time, his river of affection appears to have dried considerably in that region, which may influence the disposition of the delegates toward him at the convention.

Concerns over his age (Mr Abubakar is 75) and the grudge many southern delegates bear against northern aspirants over the party’s abandonment of zoning are two items in the baggage this perennial aspirant is carrying to the race.

Governor, Rt. Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal
Aminu Tambuwal
This is the second attempt the Sokoto governor is making at the presidency, having been runner up in the last PDP presidential primary.

Being the only governor in the race from the North-west region, the second-term governor is keen to make that advantage count in the bid for the votes of the delegates from the region. The region has by far the largest number of delegates – 193.

The former Speaker of the House of Representatives is also believed to have pockets of support from states outside his region like Gombe, Ondo, Benue and Imo.

Many have however said Mr Tambuwal may not pull the kind of support that he did in his strong showing in 2019. Mr Wike, who was one of his main backers in 2019, is also a contender for the ticket this year.

Mr Tambuwal will most likely share a few of the votes from the South with Messrs Wike, Atiku and maybe Saraki.

In the North-central, the votes of Kwara delegates are certainly in the bag for Mr Saraki but Mr Tambuwal will fight for those of Benue with Messrs Saraki and Wike. He will also expect some from Nasarawa State where he may share the spoils with Messrs Atiku and/or Saraki.

Mr Tambuwal’s prospects are not as bright as they were four years ago for two major reasons. The ‘aggrieved’ leaders and delegates from the South-east will most likely find a candidate to back from the region, while his backers in the last primary are now some of his opponents.

Bukola Saraki
The two-term governor of Kwara State and former Senate President is also running his third race for the presidency, having contested in 2011 and 2019. He withdrew for the “northern consensus candidate”, Mr Abubakar, in 2011 before the primary and came third in the 2019 edition. He later served as the Director-General for Mr Abubakar’s campaign.

Asked about his path to victory in Saturday’s primary, Mr Saraki told PREMIUM TIMES that he meets the requirements that the delegates he interacted with across the country were demanding.

He mentioned his age (59) and experience in the Executive and Legislature as an advantage for him in the race.

Mr Saraki will make a strong play for the 130 votes from his home North-central zone, especially from Kwara, Kogi and Nasarawa delegates.

Mr Saraki and Bauchi governor, Mr Mohammed, were recently named by some northern leaders as the “northern consensus candidates’ – a development that generated much controversy.

It remains to be seen what mileage he will derive from that controversial status.

That notwithstanding, Mr Saraki will expect to share the votes from the North-east and North-west with his rivals from those zones like Messrs Atiku and Tambuwal.

In the South, Mr Saraki is close to the party’s governorship candidate for Osun, Ademola Adeleke, who will control most of the delegates from that state. His mother being from their state may also draw him some votes from Ondo delegates. However, in the event of southern delegates finding a southern consensus candidate, Messrs Saraki and other northern aspirants may feel the sting.

Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State
Nyesom Wike
He has obviously been the most aggressive campaigner among the aspirants, shuttling tirelessly across the regions and dropping verbal bombs on his key opponents and other critics at each stop.

His critics said he does not talk or act like a potential president but Mr Wike is the strongest contender for the party’s ticket from the South.

The second term Rivers State governor has visited almost all the states to woo delegates. He is expected to perform strongly in the South-south and parts of the North. Mr Wike appears to have key supporters in the governors of Benue and Oyo, while one of his rivals, Mr Fayose, is also believed to have something cooking with him that may be served at or before the primary.

His two top selling points are that he has never left the PDP, not even in its ‘trying times’, and he has executed more projects than many other governors.

With Mr Obi withdrawing from the race, Mr Wike will likely get a chunk of the votes from the South-east as he is believed to be in good relationships with the governors of the zone. Mr Anyim may draw some votes from that region away from him but Mr Wike is expected to pull through.

The presidential hopeful was one of the most vocal Southern leaders when the clamour for a president from that zone was loud. This will also be an advantage for Mr Wike.

The South-west delegates may divide their votes among the Rivers governor, Mr Abubakar and maybe Mr Saraki.

Mr Wike is friends with the Benue governor, Samuel Ortom, who has since pledged to him his support. He will likely get votes from Nasarawa State too.

Mr Wike’s performance in Niger and other core northern states might be poor as delegates in the region will likely support Messrs Abubakar and Tambuwal.

Interview with Former Senate President, Anyim Pius Anyim
Pius Anyim
Until recently, Mr Anyim has been radio silent and under the radar.

He is a former Senate President and Secretary to the Government of the Federation. Mr Anyim has been urging delegates to vote for him, because of his knowledge of the legislature and the executive.

But despite this, votes from delegates, especially from those from outside the South-east, may be hard to come by for him at the convention.

There is no news of his activities in the northern states and this might affect his chances at the primary. Like Mr Wike, Mr Anyim was at the forefront of the clamour for a southern president. On several occasions, he warned the PDP of possible destruction if it does not zone its ticket to the South.


Gov. Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State
Bala Mohammed
Being in the race up till now shows he is not joking about his presidential ambition. Many had thought he was. Mr Mohammed is the only first-term governor in the race and is believed to have bought a governorship nomination form as a backup plan.

He was one of the two aspirants controversially named the “northern consensus candidates.” But Mr Mohammed’s campaign has been sporadic, another reason many believe he is not serious. He recently said the Electoral Act, which allows only elected delegates to vote in a party’s convention or congress, bothers him.

He will most likely get votes from just Bauchi delegates, that is if he remains in the race until the ballot.

Former Ekiti State governor, Peter Ayodele Fayose.
Ayo Fayose
Like Mr Mohammed, Mr Fayose has not done many campaigns. The former governor of Ekiti State had announced his intention to run when he stepped down from the party’s zoning committee in March.

If Mr Fayose does not withdraw from the race or step down for someone else, chances are, he will rake in some votes from Ekiti delegates and a few from the South-west. Votes from elsewhere are highly unlikely.

Mohammed Hayatu-Deen
Many did not know about the investment banker until he announced his presidential ambition. Though new to the political scene, Mr Hayatu-Deen has been firm in his campaign since he declared and was cleared by the party’s screening committee.

Many political analysts have pitched him as a viable candidate that Nigerians should consider especially if the North-east is to be favoured to produce the candidate.

As mentioned, he is new to the political scene and could be outplayed by other contenders. He will struggle to get votes from delegates outside his home Borno State.

Governor of Akwa Ibom, Udom Emmanuel.
Udom Emmanuel
The Akwa Ibom governor will likely step down for another contender. Mr Emmanuel, who had hailed the party’s decision to throw open the presidential ticket, has not campaigned much too.

While it remains unclear what his backup plan is, Mr Emmanuel’s chances of getting votes outside his state or region are slim. What is not slim, however, is his chance of stepping down to support another contender like Mr Wike.

Others

Other aspirants like Dele Momodu, Tariela Oliver, Sam Ohabunwa, Charles Ugwu and Chikwendu Kalu, will also most likely step down before or during the primary election.

Aside from Mr Momodu who has spent time campaigning on TV and radio programmes, the rest have not made many visible efforts to get delegates on their side. An alliance with a stronger contender is, therefore, not inevitable as it stands.

In conclusion, the PDP presidential primary could be a four-horse race involving Messrs Abubakar, Tambuwal, Saraki and Wike.

Source: https://proudlymp3.com/gist/the-list-of-all-pdp-presidential-aspirants-and-and-their-chances-at-the-primary/

The delegates say otherwise cos money bag will surely have d day iswear