How he’s going to cope atleast 40% votes in the North west and North East.

Tinubu might not be a northerner, but he’s definitely very well connected in the north. Plus the fact that most governors in the north are in the APC, so ensure that their interest is catered for, they’d definitely jump on the campaign train and try as much as possible to work for him. This was what happened in 2011 with Jonathan. Most norther governors were in PDP, and despite Jonathan being a souther Christian, they still worked for him in cajoling his people to vote for him. Now Tinubu is even on a better edge for being a southern Muslim. If they were able to sell Jonathan in 2011, Tinubu would be easier to sell for being a Muslim.

He doesn’t need a 100% vote from the whole NW/NE, but atleast 35—40% is okay. And what makes this okay is that, last night, Kwankwanso has been declared winner of his NNPP party, this automatically means he’d be a spoiler on Atiku’s so called bulk votes that’d be coming from the north.

Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu will have to share the huge votes coming from the likes of Kano, Sokoto, katsina and Maiduguri etc. Tinubu has quite a great influence in these states, even though he is not getting a 100%, he’s likely to get atleast 35% while the rest will be shared between the other two.

Also we should not forget the power of incumbency is in favor of Tinubu.

He’ll definitely fair well in the middle belt

The middle belt are tired of another fulani in power after all the casualties they have suffered. And Atiku retracting the statement he made on Twitter about the girl that was linched to death in Sokoto is a pointer to the fact that such a thing and other fulani massacre would be overlooked by any fulani president in power. Both Atiku and kwankwaso are Fulani and I’m sure the middle belt would be wary of another fulani president.

Also, it’s only Tinubu in the APC president aspirant who has refused to say he’d continue Buhari legacy, unlike PYO and others. He’s never really associate himself with Buhari style of government. Hence this makes him a better option compared to Atiku and kwankwaso.

80% in Southwest

Tinubu has a great structure in the south west, and everyone’s tired of another northerner in power especially after the 8 years of Buhari. When Atiku was elected the other day as PDP candidate, the whole of south west was furious, that how can we have another northerner in power.

Tinubu has a great structure in the south west, and when campaign start proper, media houses will do their work in mobilizing Southwesterner to vote for Tinubu.

My take is, he’s coming to take 80% vote in South west.

To win a Presidential election, one must have a strong Base.

Obasanjo/Jonathan had the SE/SS, Buhari had the NE/NW.

You people should continue deceiving the thief.

The spoils of war in SS and SE

Peter Obi is really gaining momentum, and I can bet, he’s going to do well in SS and SE.

These two regions are really tired of another northern rule. That’s too obvious. And they’re not happy with South westerner for not allowing them the chance, hence Tinubu will not really pull much weight here. Nevertheless, He’s going to gain much in the spoils of war, by the time Peter Obi cut down Atiku vote here. Once Atiku vote his greatly affected, then it paved way for Tinubu even more.

Already Tinubu has SW in the bag. Most of NC. 30% in the core north.

Atiku might have 40% in the core north, 10% in the NC. Will definitely not do well in the South west and Peter Obi will humble him in the SS and SE.

Peter Obi though will only have SS and SE in his bag. We all know he’s going nowhere.

Foolish analysis

Gentlerespect76:
Foolish analysis

Why do you think it’s foolish though?

I don't know why people make analysis with sentiment and emotions

iKingsley:
I don't know why people make analysis with sentiment and emotions

Outline the emotions there

Gentlerespect76:
Foolish analysis

My boy, calm down. Life is too short for all these

Your permutations makes sense. More superior arguments are welcome although no one can fully predict any outcome.

The bigger takeaway is that this next election is going to be more rigorous and keenly contested to the benefit of average Nigerians. That is the only way impunity will be relegated. Game on!

Atiku will get more than 10% in the North Central.

My guess

Tinubu SW - majority
Atiku NE - majority
P.O SE - majority
Kwankwaso NW - majority

NC - undecided
SS -Might lean towards P.O except Atiku pick his VP from there.

Peter Obi might draw some strength in the SW if NLC and TUC decide to back labour party which essential is their party.

Tinubu to come 2nd or 3rd in the North generally.

Atiku might come 1st or 2nd in SS depending on variables esp if Wike becomes his VP

Peter Obi might enjoy the backing of the youth but won't gain mile in the North.

Key states still remain Bauchi, Kano, Kaduna, Lagos, Anambra, Plateau, Borno, Jigawa.

Truth be told, TINUBU will win the election

A bitter truth

HomoSapiien:
The spoils of war in SS and SE

Peter Obi is really gaining momentum, and I can bet, he’s going to do well in SS and SE.

These two regions are really tired of another northern rule. That’s too obvious. And they’re not happy with South westerner for not allowing them the chance, hence Tinubu will not really pull much weight here. Nevertheless, He’s going to gain much in the spoils of war, by the time Peter Obi cut down Atiku vote here. Once Atiku vote his greatly affected, then it paved way for Tinubu even more.

Already Tinubu has SW in the bag. Most of NC. 30% in the core north.

Atiku might have 40% in the core north, 10% in the NC. Will definitely not do well in the South west and Peter Obi will humble him in the SS and SE.

Peter Obi though will only have SS and SE in his bag. We all know he’s going nowhere.

Mumu, analysis.Atiku that is from North will have just 10percent in North central.Keep dreaming

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Mumu, analysis.Atiku that is from North will have just 10percent in North central.Keep dreaming

Buhari was from north in 2011, how come Jonathan beat him!?

HomoSapiien:


Buhari was from north in 2011, how come Jonathan beat him!?

That is not the answer to my questions.Why did Jonathan lose 2015

HIGHESTPOPORI:
That is not the answer to my questions.Why did Jonathan lose 2015

Jonathan lost 2015 because there’s a north and Southwest coalition against him. It’s that simple.

HomoSapiien:


Jonathan lost 2015 because there’s a north and Southwest coalition against him. It’s that simple.

So How does Atiku get only 10percent from North central

Nyamuriflathead:

My boy, calm down. Life is too short for all these

You must be a graduate of Odudua university....your English lecturer was the best in the world

Nyamuriflathead:

My boy, calm down. Life is too short for all these

I don't blame you.

IamANigerianMan:

You must be a graduate of Odudua university....your English lecturer was the best in the world

Don't mind the fool.

HomoSapiien:


Why do you think it’s foolish though?

I think it should be called a delusion-induced make-me-happy analysis. A trait that yorubas are known for.

Oplomo:


I think it should be called a delusion-induced make-me-happy analysis. A trait that yorubas are known for.

Lmao. This how you people normally think. No logic, just emotional oil running in your brain. Lol

Peter obi is the only Christian in the 4horse race, christains in in taraba ,kaduna, nasarawa, plateau re not minorities, were Christian re minority re Niger,gombe, Bauchi,adamawa, etc, religion will play a major role, especially how Christians in the north has suffered in the last 7yrs, ss/se is in the bag for Peter obi, because no south southerners is in the race angst the 4parties,now Igbos re the second largest tribe after indigenous pple outside South east at least in up to 20states, Peter obi will not be a push over, with the kind of momentums he has gained lately

Peter obi is the only Christian in the 4horse race, christains in in taraba ,kaduna, nasarawa, plateau re not minorities, were Christian re minority re Niger,gombe, Bauchi,adamawa, etc, religion will play a major role, especially how Christians in the north has suffered in the last 7yrs, ss/se is in the bag for Peter obi, because no south southerners is in the race angst the 4parties,now Igbos re the second largest tribe after indigenous pple outside South east at least in up to 20states, Peter obi will not be a push over, with the kind of momentums he has gained lately, pastor or bishop will not be used again to deceive Nigerians as a running mate to a Muslim for Christian votes, buhari bastardized everything

Atiku will score 10% in the NC? What brand of weed are you smoking.Even Peter Obi might score above 10% in the NC

If Atiku wins the NE/NW/SS he will be president.

Tinubu's stronghold is only in the SW.

Peter Obi's stronghold is in the SE

NC states of Benue, Plateau,Taraba,Nassarawa,Kogi and Kwara are battleground states

Saying that Atiku will lose in the NW because of some Governors are APC is plain ridiculous.

Tinubu would win Oyo no matter how popular Seyi Makinde is.

Kogi n Kwara battle ground for a Yoruba man after 8 years of Fulani even with APC governors. If you are not brain dead to make that statement you have to be mentally incapacitated to even consider that.

PaChukwudi44:
If Atiku wins the NE/NW/SS he will be president.

Tinubu's stronghold is only in the SW.

Peter Obi's stronghold is in the SE

NC states of Benue, Plateau,Taraba,Nassarawa,Kogi and Kwara are battleground states

blancsn1:
Kogi n Kwara battle ground for a Yoruba man after 8 years of Fulani even with APC governors. If you are not brain dead to make that statement you have to be mentally incapacitated to even consider that.

Na only Yorubas de dia? Is the emir of Ilorin not Fulani?

It's even worse off in Kogi.There are only found in Kogi west

H