actually, they won lol

Updates on Guinea's match?

guinea vs ethiopia live score at thetopfootball..com

42' guinea 1 ethiopia 0

72' guinea 1 ethiopia 0

89' guinea 1 ethiopia 0

Thank God we won.

The way it is right now, i think if we beat Guinea by 1-0 we will top the group, by beating them by a lone goal the final table would be:

----GP pts W D L GF GA GD
Nig 6 13 4 1 1 11 3 +8
Gui 6 13 4 1 1 11 4 +7

Goal difference would be used: Naija would go,

Pls wat happens if we beat them by 2-1 or 3-1? Anyone to explain it, ?

Original post from kickoffnigeria comment.

Nigeria now has 10 points and +7 goal difference.
Guinea has 13 points and +8 goal difference.

A victory for Nigeria against Guinea on the last day, irrespective of the score margin, 1:0, 2:1 or more qualifies Nigeria automatically.
It would be Nigeria with 13 points with + 8 goal difference and Guinea 13 points with +7 goal difference.
There is no head to head to decide which team tops this time as announced by Caf but points, then goal difference.

Guinea has 13 points with +8 goal difference while Nigeria has 10 points with +7 GD. Therefore, a 1-0 win for Nigeria against Guinea in the final group match will actually be enough for Nigeria to qualify  outrightly i.e Nigeria 13 pt, +8 GD  vs. Guinea 13 pt, +7 GD. Of course, Guinea will still stands a good chance of been one of the two best second placed teams and qualify also.  

Nigeria will still top the group as long as we win by at least a goal margin, 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 or whatevever.

And Guinea win! Nigeria must win at home or they are out!

Wow,  intriguing!
Cameroon and Egypt are officially out of the 2012 African Cup of Nations (they don't even have a mathematical chance!)

ANALYSIS GROUP BY GROUP:

GROUP A
Mali must win away to bottom of the group Liberia. Anything other than a win will most likely see them out.
Zimbabwe fly off to Cape Verde. Whoever wins this match has a chance to qualify (possibly as one of the 2 second placed teams), but they need to win by a big margin!

GROUP B
Pretty straight forward Nigeria vs Guinea matchup: Nigeria wins by any scoreline and they qualify. Anything other than a win means Nigeria is out.
Even if Guinea lose they are sure to qualify as one of the second placed teams (with 9 points).
If you do the math GUINEA HAS PRACTICALLY ALREADY QUALIFIED! PLEASE NOTE: This is under the presumption that Madagascar does not win over Ethiopia in Addis Abeba (in this case they have 7 points and a very good goal difference).

GROUP C
Winner takes all.
Zambia need a win or a draw at home to qualify. A loss means they are out.
Libya need to win. A draw gives them 8 points and a good chance to qualify as one of the second placed teams. A loss makes qualification highly unlikely as Libya has a poor head to head with 7 points.

GROUP D
All to play for,  Morocco in pole position but need to win. If Morocco mess up at home against Tanzania anyone can take it,  No chance for anyone from this group to qualify as one of the best second placed teams.

GROUP E
Senegal qualified, the rest of the teams are eliminated.

GROUP F
Burkina Faso qualified, the rest of the teams are eliminated. That said there is an open enquiry whether or not Burkina Faso fielded an ineligible player. If found guilty they forfeit 6 points to Namibia, who qualify through the back door.

GROUP G
Niger lead the group, but need to win away in Egypt to qualify as group winner. A loss eliminates them, while a draw gives them a small chance to qualify with 7points as a 2nd placed team, but with a poor goal difference.
South Africa and Sierra Leone have to fight for the win. Whoever wins either wins the group (if Niger fails to win) or has 7 points and have to count for a 2nd placed qualification (if Niger win the last game). A draw puts them at the mercy of Niger.

GROUP H
Cote d'Ivoire qualified, the rest of the teams are eliminated.

GROUP I
Sudan host Ghana in the all-determining match. Whoever wins progresses. The loser has 7 points (plus a very good goal difference) and has to count on progressing as the 2nd placed team. A draw means that Ghana wins the group, while Sudan is second with 8 points and is almost sure of qualifying.

GROUP J
One of the most complicated situations. Uganda host Kenya, while Angola visits the already eliminated Sierra Leone.
a) Uganda win they qualify. A draw or even a minimal one goal loss will be enough if Angola fail to win their last game. Any other result eliminates them.
b) Kenya MUST WIN by 2 goals to stand any chance of qualifying. Even then they must count on Angola NOT WINNING their last game (if Angola draw than Kenya wins the group with three teams on 10 points but with Kenya having the best goal difference). They still have an outside chance to qualify with 7 points as a second best loser. All in all their chances are very slim,
c) Angola MUST WIN their last game and hope Uganda does not win their game. They have no chance of qualifying as a second best team.

GROUP K
Botswana qualified. Basically Tunisia has to get a better result than Malawi (if Malawi loses Tunisia must draw, if Malawi draw Tunisia must win, if Malawi wins than Tunisia is screwed, )

P.S. There is a decent chance we won't have ANY NORTH AFRICAN TEAMS! Only Morocco look favourite to qualify,

Wow,  intriguing!
Cameroon and Egypt are officially out of the 2012 African Cup of Nations (they don't even have a mathematical chance!)

Egypt are definitely out, but Cameroon still stand a very very slim chance of qualifying as one of the two best second placed teams to qualify.

P.S. There is a decent chance we won't have ANY NORTH AFRICAN TEAMS! Only Morocco look favourite to qualify,

Group K's two top teams qualify automatically like you observed, so Tunisia stands a good chance of making it. Tunisia has +6 GD vs. Malawi's +5 GD, so they have a slight advantage over Malawi.

Egypt are definitely out, but Cameroon still stand a very very slim chance of qualifying as one of the two best second placed teams to qualify.

No, they don't. To qualify as a second best team you need a minimum of 7 points from matches between the top three group teams. If Cameroon win against Congo they will have 5 points. Ergo NO CHANCE TO QUALIFY.

Group K's two top teams qualify automatically, so Tunisia stands a good chance of making it.

Yes. But Malawi is in the driving seat. Head to head encounters counts before goal difference. Malawi has an away goal advantage so its advantage Malawi.

No, they don't. To qualify as a second best team you need a minimum of 7 points from matches between the top three group teams. If Cameroon win against Congo they will have 5 points. Ergo NO CHANCE TO QUALIFY.

I don't know about this 7 points thing, but the same most apply to all groups, have you factored this for second placed teams in groups A-J.

Yes. But Malawi is in the driving seat.

The table I have says Tunisia has 11 pt, +6 GD to Malawi's 11 pt, +5 GD.

I don't know about this 7 points thing, but the same most apply to all groups, have you factored this for second placed teams in groups A-J.

Exactly. I have factored in the other group and in the worst case scenario there will be at least 1 team with 7 points (ergo better than Cameroon), which comes from the Ghana/Sudan group, while several other second placed teams are gauranteed at least 6 points. It id also extremely unlikely for someone to qualify with less than 7 points, whilst qualifying with 5 is impossible.

The table I have says Tunisia has 11 pt, +6 GD to Malawi's 11 pt, +5 GD.

Head to head between Tunisia and Malawi counts before goal difference. So Malawi who have advantage on away goals rule are above Tunisia in the table.

Ok.

waiting for the d-day

ojdollars:

The way it is right now, i think if we beat Guinea by 1-0 we will top the group, by beating them by a lone goal the final table would be:

----GP pts W D L GF GA GD
Nig 6 13 4 1 1 11 3 +8
Gui 6 13 4 1 1 11 4 +7

Goal difference would be used: Naija would go,

Pls wat happens if we beat them by 2-1 or 3-1? Anyone to explain it, ?   

Original post from kickoffnigeria comment.

According to CAF, Goal difference will be used, any win will give Nigeria the ticket cos both teams would have tied at 13pts
 
2-1 will still give eagles +8 GD  and Guinea will have +7 GD same as (1-0) WHILE
3-1 will give eagles  +9GD and Guinea will have +6 GD  on the last day

CAF Tie-breaking rules for this competition states that

The order of tie-breakers used when two or more team have the equal number of points is:

1. Number of points obtained in games between the teams concerned;
2. Goal difference in games between the teams concerned;
3. Goals scored in games between the teams concerned;
4. Away goals scored in games between the teams concerned;
5. Goal difference in all games;
6. Goals scored in all games;
7. Drawing of lots.

If Nigeria wins Guinea by 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 etc.

The rules will be interpreted like this,

1. Nigeria 3 pts  vs Guinea 3 pts    = draw
2. Nigeria 0 GD   vs Guinea 0 GD    = draw
3. Nigeria 1 goal vs Guinea 1 goal  = draw
4. Nigeria 0 goal vs Guinea 0 goal  = draw (Guinea wins if they score goals eg. 2-1, 3-2 i.e away goals rule)
5. Nigeria +8 GD vs Guinea +7 GD  = Nigeria wins

So Nigeria can qualify with even a single goal win over Guinea but Guinea wins if they score goals by away goals rule.
If Guinea scores a goal(s) then Nigeria must win with at least two goals margin to qualify using rule #2 which comes into play before rule #4.

I hate permutations

With due apology what will happen if nigeria lose thier final match against guinea by any margin.Any hopes of qualification?

With due apology what will happen if nigeria lose thier final match against guinea by any margin.Any hopes of qualification?

You take the matches between the top three teams in the group. Right now at least 1 second placed team is guaranteed 7 points from those matches (in the Ghana / Sudan group) and several other teams have a guaranteed 6 points, while it would be very highly unlikely for no other team to not have 7 points or more.

If Ethiopia (most likely) is the no 3 team in the group than Nigeria would have 2 losses against Guinea, a draw and a win over Ethiopia = 4 points
RESULT: Eliminated

If Madagascar is the no 3 team than Nigeria has 2 losses against Guinea and 2 wins against Madagascar = 6 points
RESULT: Most likely eliminated.

A draw means Nigeria has 5 points in the first scenario and 7 points in the second less likely scenario.

Basically Nigeria can't afford not to win. Meanwhile Guinea can lose and still be almost guaranteed of being one of the best 2nd placed teams:
If Ethiopia is the no 3 team in the group than they have 9 points as a second placed team (no other 2nd placed team can have 9 points), while if Madagascar win they have 7 points. I'm sure they will be well aware of this, so they'll probably bunker their goal and given good news from Ethiopia they will probably not really worry if they lose or not.

zoraro:

CAF Tie-breaking rules for this competition states that

If Nigeria wins Guinea by 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 etc.

The rules will be interpreted like this,

1. Nigeria 3 pts  vs Guinea 3 pts    = draw
2. Nigeria 0 GD   vs Guinea 0 GD    = draw
3. Nigeria 1 goal vs Guinea 1 goal  = draw
4. Nigeria 0 goal vs Guinea 0 goal  = draw (Guinea wins if they score goals eg. 2-1, 3-2 i.e away goals rule)
5. Nigeria +8 GD vs Guinea +7 GD  = Nigeria wins

So Nigeria can qualify with even a single goal win over Guinea but Guinea wins if they score goals by away goals rule.
If Guinea scores a goal(s) then Nigeria must win with at least two goals margin to qualify using rule #2 which comes into play before rule #4.

THERE CANT BE A TIE COS AS NIGERIA GOAL DIFFERENCE INCREASES, GUINEA'S GOAL DIFFERENCE DECREASES. ANY WIN WILL DO!

@marutimon
pls how many teams are going to qualify as best losers

3 teams, but 1 team qualifies from the 5 team group, so it will be either Malawi or Tunisia.

The remaining 2 teams will come from the remaining 10 groups. I highly suspect it will be Guinea (I think Nigeria should beat Guinea at home) and Sudan or Ghana.

Who the hell wrote that? Nigeria have not qualified yet,

femi4:

THERE CANT BE A TIE COS AS NIGERIA GOAL DIFFERENCE INCREASES, GUINEA'S GOAL DIFFERENCE DECREASES. ANY WIN WILL DO!

Yes there can be a tie, the goal difference of the matches between the teams is more important than the overall goal difference.
If Nigeria wins by 2-1, 3-2 etc. the GD will be +0 for both teams, then away goals will then be used to break the tie.

@zoraro
We cannot ve a tie.If nigeria win by a lone goal against Guinea, our gaol difference will increase from +7 to +8 whereas Guinea will decrease from +8 to +7.Unless u want to tell me that the goal we will(hopefully) score against Guinea will not count against dem

zoraro:

Yes there can be a tie, the goal difference of the matches between the teams is more important than the overall goal difference.
If Nigeria wins by 2-1, 3-2 etc. the GD will be +0 for both teams, then away goals will then be used to break the tie.

No, that's not what the rule says: Let me interprets the rule to you

The order of tie-breakers used when two or more team have the equal number of points is:(Here, two teams are involved)

1. Number of points obtained in games between the teams concerned;
     This cannot separate them cos both teams have 13pts

2. Goal difference in games between the teams concerned;
    But this will separate the two teams if we win by 1-0 cos Nig GD will increase by 1 i.e +8 while Guinea GD will decrease by 1 i.e +7


NB: I m hearing in some quota that CAF might bring in head to head rule, if that come into play, then the eagles will need a 2 goal margin             (e.g 2-0, 3-1, 4-2 etc ) to advance cos they lost 0-1 to Guinea in Conakry.

Sometimes i feel we like to argue for the sake of argument. @ Femi4, u don't know and you do not want to know. Since, u do not know, why not listen to does who do? CAF has said they WILL use Head to Head so what r u arguing? All the permutations that have been listed have taken this into cognisance EXCEPT YOU. Instead of you to now agree that you made a mistake but you still insist on your arguments then include a proviso. Na wa o.

blank:

Sometimes i feel we like to argue for the sake of argument. @ Femi4, u don't know and you do not want to know. Since, u do not know, why not listen to does who do? CAF has said they WILL use Head to Head so what r u arguing? All the permutations that have been listed have taken this into cognisance EXCEPT YOU. Instead of you to now agree that you made a mistake but you still insist on your arguments then include a proviso. Na wa o.

You are very Daft cos you don't even understand the reason for the argument and doesn't know how to come in, next time, you look for daft like you to argue with.

THE PERMUTATION IS BASED ON THE EXISTING CAF RULE ON THEIR WEBSITE (without head to head)

IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH HEAD TO HEAD(Everybody understand the permutation when it comes to head to head)

NEXT TIME, TRY TO READ IN BETWEEN LINES  BEFORE DROPING YOUR COMMENT.

See what is calling someone a fool while ur d one arguing mindlessly about things u know nothing about.