Having studied the terrain, mind, moods of Nigerians. I think we can conclude that the 2023 election would be a replica of 2011 election not 2015 or 2019 due to similarities..

Its factors are almost similar to 2011

GEJ - Only strong christian contender
GEJ - Minority stronghold
GEJ - More popular amongst the south and literates

Find below a picture of 2011 result for GEJ, which would definitely be similar Peter Obi with slight changes in the SW states, Kwara and reduction on percentage win amongst the northern states.

But it would make little to no difference because 2011 had 1 strong contender (Buhari), 2023 has 3 strong contenders splitting votes (Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu)...

If you believe this wont fly, we can discuss in the comment section.