There is an intense battle for the expected huge northern Muslim votes by presidential candidates in this week's presidential election - Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, former Lagos State governor, senator Bola Tinubu of the APCand his former Kano state counterpart Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the NNPP. Infact, it is believed that it was this expectation that led to Tinubu and APC's contentious Muslim/Muslim ticket.
Peter Obi of the LP is not expected to get up to 10% of the northern Muslim votes despite feilding a northern Muslim as his running mate. Peter Obi is however, expected to garner close to 80% of the Christian votes from the Southeast, Southsouth, Northcentral, Southwest, parts of the Northeast and Kaduna state in the Northwest. Obi is also expected to get some reasonable votes from northcentral and southern minority Muslims.
What do you think is the ratio of northern Muslim votes that Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso will get? How will that get any of them close to Aso Rock?

I need Kwankwaso to get as much votes as he can from Kano & Jigawa states. I need Atiku to get as well then Tinubu to cancel him out as necessary.
With Obi doing well in NC, grabbing 25% in some NE states as well as in Kaduna will help him. Any other thing he gets from the NW will add to his overall vote count.
SE and SS are already on lockdown for him. He is projected to get around 45% in Lagos. Coupled with his overall good showing in the SW,he is likely to get 25% in at least 3 SW states.
In the end, he'll win at first ballot.

toneroforever:
I need Kwankwaso to get as much votes as he can from Kano & Jigawa states. I need Atiku to get as well then Tinubu to cancel him out as necessary.
With Obi doing well in NC, grabbing 25% in some NE states as well as in Kaduna will help him. Any other thing he gets from the NW will add to his overall vote count.
SE and SS are already on lockdown for him. He is projected to get around 45% in Lagos. Coupled with his overall good showing in the SW,he is likely to get 25% in at least 3 SW states.
In the end, he'll at first ballot.

By the grace of God, Peter Obi is Nigeria's incoming president.

Ratio 60:30:20

Atiku, Tinubu, kwankwaso

FatherOfJesus:
Ratio 60:30:20

Atiku, Tinubu, kwankwaso

Ok. Do you think the 60% northern Muslim votes is enough for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar to win the 2023 presidential election?

FreedomfromtheT:
Ok. Do you think the 60% northern Muslim votes is enough for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar to win the 2023 presidential election?

Nope not enough if he cannot do well in the south and northern Christian regions

45:30:25

Atiku: BAT: kwankwanso

FatherOfJesus:
Nope not enough if he cannot do well in the south and northern Christian regions

You are right. I expect Atiku to do well in these southern states: Lagos 20%, Delta 30% and Osun 25%. I also expect him to win or least score 45% in Taraba which is a predominantly Christian state.

Neckpresser101:
45:30:25

Atiku: BAT: kwankwanso

Ok. Do you think that is enough to catapult Atiku into Aso Rock?

FreedomfromtheT:
Ok. Do you think the 60% northern Muslim votes is enough for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar to win the 2023 presidential election?

According to Bantu and nextiet polls that did an analysis of voting by religion up north,they projected obi to get 70% of christian votes while tinubu was projected to get 50% of Muslim votes

Neckpresser101:
45:30:25

Atiku: BAT: kwankwanso

No 45% 35% 20%..northern muslims prefer tinubu

FreedomfromtheT:
You are right. I expect Atiku to do well in these southern states: Lagos 20%, Delta 30% and Osun 25%. I also expect him to win or least score 45% in Taraba which is a predominantly Christian state.

It will still not be enough.for him to win,he needs 70% of the north and one southern region.as it stands,he has lost the nc

FreedomfromtheT:
Ok. Do you think that is enough to catapult Atiku into Aso Rock?

There's going to be rerun


Atiku has no chance in the south that's why he's focused on the north . If he wins better part of the north like I'm wishing him then it's going to be rerun between him and PO

Very possible
Northerners are not happy with APC at all

garfield1:


No 45% 35% 20%..northern muslims prefer tinubu

right

Neckpresser101:


There's going to be rerun


Atiku has no chance in the south that's why he's focused on the north . If he wins better part of the north like I'm wishing him then it's going to be rerun between him and PO

Very possible
Northerners are not happy with APC at all

Hmmmmmmm!

garfield1:


According to Bantu and nextiet polls that did an analysis of voting by religion up north,they projected obi to get 70% of christian votes while tinubu was projected to get 50% of Muslim votes

Ok. Will the 50% northern Muslim votes coupled with the expected close to 80% Yoruba votes be enough to propel Tinubu to the presidency?

FreedomfromtheT:
You are right. I expect Atiku to do well in these southern states: Lagos 20%, Delta 30% and Osun 25%. I also expect him to win or least score 45% in Taraba which is a predominantly Christian state.

forget Lagos, I live here.
Lagos is between Obi and Tinubu. Atiku will be lucky to get 10%

FatherOfJesus:
forget Lagos, I live here.
Lagos is between Obi and Tinubu. Atiku will be lucky to get 10%

Ok.

FreedomfromtheT:
Ok. Will the 50% northern Muslim votes coupled with the expected close to 80% Yoruba votes be enough to propel Tinubu to the presidency?

It will be more than enough because 50% Muslim votes means he wins the north and the north votes will dwarf obi southern votes

FatherOfJesus:
forget Lagos, I live here.
Lagos is between Obi and Tinubu. Atiku will be lucky to get 10%

True,atiku will perform woefully here.tinubu and obi will win him by at least 500k here

garfield1:


It will be more than enough because 50% Muslim votes means he wins the north and the north votes will dwarf obi southern votes

So you really believe that Tinubu will get 50% of northern Muslim votes when two prominent northern Muslims are on the ballot coupled with the reported disaffection of northerners with the APC government's performance.
You perhaps forgot that Peter Obi is not only winning southern votes but northern Christian votes as well. You probably also forgot that the Yoruba Christian votes will be shared between Tinubu and Obi.

FreedomfromtheT:
So you really believe that Tinubu will get 50% of northern Muslim votes when two prominent northern Muslims are on the ballot coupled with the disaffection on northerners with the APC government's performance.
You perhaps forgot that Peter Obi is not only winning southern votes but northern Christian votes as well. You probably also forgot that the Yoruba Christian votes will be shared between Tinubu and Obi.

Yoruba Christians will not share anything.majority will vote tinubu,do not be deceived.the mm ticket is attractive to many muslims.those northerners do not really care about good governance

garfield1:


Yoruba Christians will not share anything.majority will vote tinubu,do not be deceived.the mm ticket is attractive to many muslims.those northerners do not really care about good governance

garfield1:


Yoruba Christians will not share anything.majority will vote tinubu,do not be deceived.the mm ticket is attractive to many muslims.those northerners do not really care about good governance

That is your wish. I am a Christian from one of the largest churches in Nigeria and I know the sentiments of so many Yoruba Christians against the APC's Muslim/Muslim ticket.

FreedomfromtheT:
That is your wish. I am a Christian from one of the largest churches in Nigeria and I know the sentiments of Yoruba Christians against the APC's Muslim/Muslim ticket.

A lot of ss dont like igbos but may vote obi

garfield1:


A lot of ss dont like igbos but may vote obi

It is Peter Obi that is on the ballot. He is going to be the president of Nigeria not that of Igbos alone. It is not a matter of may. About 75% or more of Southsouth voters are for Peter Obi. Thank you.

FreedomfromtheT:
It is Peter Obi that is on the ballot. He is going to be the president of Nigeria not that of Igbos alone. It is not a matter of may. About 75% or more of Southsouth voters are for Peter Obi. Thank you.

Not true.half of ss are against obi.he is only sure of rivers and edo.you are an Igbo man based in Lagos,talk about your tribe.leave ss for those who are from there

Speaking as a Northerner with no preferred candidate here.

From most of my observations online and offline, it is likely that Atiku will take 60%, Tinubu will take 25%, Kwankwaso 10%, and Peter Obi 5% (thanks to Southern Kaduna and parts of the NE). This for the NE and NW only. Obi would do much much better in the NC.

FreedomfromtheT:
It is Peter Obi that is on the ballot. He is going to be the president of Nigeria not that of Igbos alone. It is not a matter of may. About 75% or more of Southsouth voters are for Peter Obi. Thank you.

South south votes for Obi is 90%

garfield1:


Not true.half of ss are against obi.he is only sure of rivers and edo.you are an Igbo man based in Lagos,talk about your tribe.leave ss for those who are from there

That is your wish. But are you not contradicting yourself? You typed earlier that the SS may vote Obi. Now you claim more than half of them will not vote Obi. So who will they now vote for? The reasons why more than an absolute majority of Southsouth voters will vote for Obi among the three or four major contenders are not far fetched:
1. Peter Obi is a southern Christian same with most Southsoutheners,
2. Peter Obi is seen as a politician with character, capacity, competence and integrity,
3. Most Southsoutheners are Igbos, related to Igbos or intermarried with Igbos over the decades,
4. Peter Obi's wife is from AkwaIbom in the Southsouth,
5. Most Nigerians including Southsoutheners acknowledge that it is the turn of the Southeast to produce Nigeria's next president,
6. Most southern Christians detest the APC's Muslim/Muslim ticket,
7. Most southerners and those from the Northcentral region do not want to dream of another Fulani president after Buhari's eight presidency.

Sum everything together: Peter Obi is Nigeria's incoming president by God's grace.
Thank you.

kpogede77:

South south votes for Obi is 90%

Ok. I didn't want to appear to be exaggerating.

FoolishBoy419:
Speaking as a Northerner with no preferred candidate here.

From most of my observations online and offline, it is likely that Atiku will take 60%, Tinubu will take 25%, Kwankwaso 10%, and Peter Obi 5% (thanks to Southern Kaduna and parts of the NE). This for the NE and NW only. Obi would do much much better in the NC.

Ok.