Dapo Abiodun's Narrow Election Victory, A Classical Case of 'You Cannot Drown the Man that Thought You to Swim' by Seunmanuel Faleye
Clearly, Governor Dapo Abiodun is still basking in the euphoria of his March 18 governorship election victory, where he was declared governor-elect, and similarly, his cronies must still be head in the cloud, savoring the Hennessey and Whiskey which he promised them hours before the election.

Howbeit, it is not yet Uhuru for the governor-elect, as it is now clear he will still have his day at the tribunal to prove that his victory was earned, and the process through which INEC declared him winner did not stand logic in the head.

This is because some political parties that participated in the election have already filed a petition at the tribunal, claiming that the election was marred by irregularities and that the results declared by INEC did not reflect the will of the people.

More particularly, there have also been claims that INEC violated the 'Margin of Lead Principle' provided for in Sections 26 and 53 of the Electoral Act to declare Abiodun the winner.

The 'Margin of Lead Principle' provides that a re-run election should be declared if the margin of victory in an election is lower than the canceled votes.

In this case, Abiodun was declared the winner, with a margin of lead of 13,912, where he polled 276,395 and his closest rival, Ladi Adebutu of PDP polled 262,383. The number of void votes was 33,750.

These claims, coupled with allegations of irregularities, ballot box snatching, and other electoral infractions have all contributed to the argument why the electoral process remains questionable.

Dapo Abiodun's Slim Margin of Victory

A careful perusal of Abiodun’s outing on the ballot from 2019 when he first contested and won the governorship seat and now in 2023, it becomes clear that his popularity continues to dwindle with each outing.

As a first-time candidate for governor of Ogun State in 2019, Abiodun’s margin of victory was 19,517 votes with which he defeated Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied People's Movement (APM). By 2023, his margin of victory had been reduced to 5,605.

It becomes clear that Abiodun is not popular in Ogun State. Abiodun's margin of victory has steadily decreased in the intervening four years. What the numbers suggest is that there is growing dissatisfaction with Abiodun, as fewer people are voting for him each time.

Former Ekiti State Governor Ayo Fayose while commenting on the state and house of assembly election during a recent interview on Arise TV casually remarked that governors who were returned elected with 20,000 or fewer votes should be declared losers by INEC.

Fayose believes that the fact that some governors only won by a narrow margin, despite having access to all the state's resources, was a sign that the people rejected their rule. This indicates that the people were not satisfied with the progress they made during their first four years in office.

Due to Fayose's reputation for talking bluntly, this statement appears like a wisecrack. Nevertheless, it contains some reality checks for officeholders and politicians.

A key lesson in politics is to build bridges, not walls. However, Abiodun's overinflated sense of self-importance prevented him from seeing beyond his nose. When he and his cronies complain that certain figures in Ogun politics, including Otunba Gbenga Daniel, have betrayed them, it becomes laughable.

For someone Abiodun once claimed does not have a political structure in Ogun State, how can he now be accusing the same person of hurting his vote in his region if he was truly not politically relevant?

Rather than build relationships, Abiodun and his cronies have taken a more combative stance. This makes it difficult for them to progress toward their political goals. This has led to divisiveness in Ogun State's political landscape.

When Senator Ibikunle Amosun was Governor of Ogun State, for seven and half years, Abiodun was his main man. However, the former didn't consider the latter a worthy successor. As a result, Abiodun parted with SIA. Abiodun at the time approached Otunba Gbenga Daniel to support his ambition, which the former obliged him. Easily so, because Abiodun appeared to be a lesser evil than SIA, who supported a candidate as an extension of his reign in Ogun State. Those who understand how cruel SIA was to OGD would understand why OGD
supported Abiodun at the time...

Continue Reading>>>>

https://applesbite.com/dapo-abioduns-narrow-election-victory-a-classical-case-of-you-cannot-drown-the-man-that-taught-you-to-swim-by-seunmanuel-faleye/

Eleyi Daru-Dapo. if after 4yrs, a governor can't win his state with at least 100k votes, his performance was woeful