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The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies - Politics (2) - Nairaland

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President Seeks To Cut Fuel Subsidies After Oil Decline / Ghana Cuts Fuel Subsidies, Fuel Rises To N184 Per Litre / Okonjo-iweala Announces Fuel Subsidies Will Be Removed - GEJ Please Sack Her Now (2) (3) (4)

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Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by ndukwejoe(m): 5:21pm On Jan 04, 2012
Our problem is not subsidy our problem is corruption if Goodluck is a tough guy let him go after looters.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by tlops(m): 5:21pm On Jan 04, 2012
OK_2_NV:

who owns OandO sef?
I heard it belongs to tinubu.
How true is this?
If so thats why ACN doesn't want subsidy removed

Oando= O and o = [b]O[/b]basanjo and [b]o[/b]dili = PDP!
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by obowunmi(m): 5:24pm On Jan 04, 2012
nosa2:

A statement by Sanusi made in a yahoo group

It needs to fight corruption and show seriousness in that.


Really ?! undecided undecided undecided undecided undecided

I hadn't noticed that Diezani, Babaginda, Obasanjo, Bode-George , still walk around scot-free ?
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by vislabraye(m): 5:26pm On Jan 04, 2012
GEJ doesnt know why he's the president.  .  Infact, I have to refrain myself from cursing him. Mrs Okonjo whatever has been bought. I think the president needs to be probed, and I hope it happens soon.

It seems Buhari would have been better after all Boko Haram is still flourishing and GEJ is just looking like a slowspoke.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by doctokwus: 5:30pm On Jan 04, 2012
Tell d people a lie so many times& they bliv it to b d truth.
Now some people now bliv d fuel subsidy lie that they say their only grouse is d timing.Meanwhile,no serious inquiry or question is being asked on how subsidy jumped frm N300b to N1.3trillion in less than a year,no question is being asked how 2011 budget that is supposed to end by march 2012 has suddenly ended in dec 2011,no question is being asked where d Kolade committee is going to get d savings that don't exist in d 2012 budget to fund d so called infrastructural projects,etc.
Sometimes in nigeria,u begin to wonder if d poor shd not b left to continue their suffering when,despite their bare existence,they refuse to hold their leaders accountable for d nations wealth
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Nobody: 5:35pm On Jan 04, 2012
Government needs to investigate subsidy payments and punish any violations of extant guidelines. It needs to cut on unnecessary and waste ful expenditure. It needs to fight corruption and show seriousness in that. It needs to deliver on capital projects, power and infrastructure including irrigation, farm-level storage and agri-processing. These are all valid issues that are to be taken IN ADDITION to and not in place of subsidy removal.

Sanusi you know that wouldnt happen under President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan!
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Pain(m): 5:36pm On Jan 04, 2012
Another Thread by Apologists on GEJ Payroll! shocked
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by rasputinn(m): 5:37pm On Jan 04, 2012
OK_2_NV:

who owns OandO sef?
I heard it belongs to tinubu
.
How true is this?
If so thats why ACN doesn't want subsidy removed

Of course it's Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Infact your post is one of the smartest on this thread.

Kudos to the other guys that have their thinking caps on:ekt_bear,the OP etc
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by obowunmi(m): 5:41pm On Jan 04, 2012
^OGA raputin,

this should NOT become a PDP vs ACN issue, How can a normal human being spend 100 dollars almost 10k just to fill up their gas tank ?

I mean common, thats a bit extreme. Its not normal.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by obowunmi(m): 5:42pm On Jan 04, 2012
rasputinn:

Of course it's Bola Ahmed Tinubu

Infact your post is one of the smartest on this thread.

Kudos to the other guys that have their thinking caps on:ekt_bear,the OP etc

I am beginning to support the removal of FUEL SUBSIDY. I want to see how Nigeria looks like at the end of the year.  Will it IMPROVE ? Why not give it a TRY. I think that is the challenge the federal government should give its people.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by TeskyMan(m): 5:47pm On Jan 04, 2012
I saw this and I think it should be posted on here:-

[size=15pt]The Minister of Finance and the CBN chief said in the long run we will all benefit from subsidy removal, if it takes about 4 years to build a refinery not looking at how long it takes the company to make the final investment decision then their long run mean 4 years. (The long run being when all of the variable elements are fully adjusted and the expected refineries are refining). What is true about the short run cannot necessarily be inferred from what must happen in the long run, and we live in the short run.
Borrowing from J M Keynes “The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again”.
Subsidy can produce real effects on output and employment only if some prices are rigid in the short term till our expected refineries are here.
What happen to those tankers and their owners that offload at sea and send the refine crude to Cameroun and other neighboring countries while the paper is processed as being dispensed in Nigeria?
Who are the people promising to build refineries? (Same people who we cannot prosecute for falsely collecting subsidy from government).
Why is Nigerian government paying for demurrage on tankers that were intentionally left at sea by the owners?
Which auditing firms approve the figures for payment?
Do the right thing, arrest those who are collecting free money from the government and prosecute them, then tell us the actual cost of subsidy.
[/size]



Makes a whole lot of sense, abi.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Nadanbata: 6:02pm On Jan 04, 2012
People need to stop saying do this do that build that build that. Why? BECAUSE YOU KNOW FULL WELL THAT IS NOT PRACTICAL. And will never happen under GEJ and PDP.

The government has no intention of doing so, it is corrupt and not transparent. Did you see 2012 Budget 1 billion Naira food GEJ. Does that tell you he is ready for action in Naija? Does that show a leader leading by example? Does that show that change is coming to Naija? Or is it just another year we will have had since democracy?

That is why nobody wants any subsidy removal becuase the funds will be chopped. Less for you more for them. Govt has not shown they are serious. That is why people don't want them managing any more money than they had to. Simple as that.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by tlops(m): 6:11pm On Jan 04, 2012
obowunmi:

I am beginning to support the removal of FUEL SUBSIDY. I want to see how Nigeria looks like at the end of the year.  Will it IMPROVE ? Why not give it a TRY.  I think that is the challenge the federal government should give its people.

Guy, I will be surprised if anything changed in the direction of progress. President GEJ is talented in Promises! But I really hope I am wrong with this.

They are used to shifting of goal post to accommodate their corruption

Remember vision 2010 not a single point was achieved on it (they should provide proof), then they moved it to 2020, still no evaluation to show any progress, it has been moved to vision 20--forever!

They have promised Nigerians 1600 buses to be delivered ----never!
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by kolexy(m): 6:15pm On Jan 04, 2012
Ocean and Oil bought majority stake in the former Unipetrol

Ocean and Oil was founded by Wale Tinubu, Omamofe Boyo, and Onajite Okoloko(Ibori's point man in Econet and Notore).

Oando has nothing to do with Bola Tinubu.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by obowunmi(m): 6:20pm On Jan 04, 2012
kolexy:

Ocean and Oil bought majority stake in the former Unipetrol

Ocean and Oil was founded by Wale Tinubu, Omamofe Boyo, and Onajite Okoloko(Ibori's point man in Econet and Notore).

Oando has nothing to do with Bola Tinubu.



You are on drugs, Bola Tinubu is a major investor and used his connections to make things happen for his nephew.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by omoalaro: 6:33pm On Jan 04, 2012
Deep Sight (m)« #7 on: Today at 10:57:24 AM »



Here is the thing. the cost of fuel subsidy was actually less than 300 billion NGN previously. How did it become N1.3 Trillion? ? ? ?

Some one is telling a profound lie here.

It became N1.3Trillion because 2011 was an election year and fuel importers getting subsidies for phantom fuel supplied needed to fund PDP, Have you forgotten how PDP spent massively during the elections. Is anyone asking how they came about the huge money spent. I have told my friends long ago that we the masses will be made to pay for the campaign expenses very soon. this is also why the crooks can not be punished. They shared the money with PDP.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by ektbear: 6:49pm On Jan 04, 2012
Pain:

Another Thread by Apologists on GEJ Payroll! shocked

lmao

I don't have a track record as a GEJ fan.

That said, every man has his price. . . if GEJ is willing to meet this price I'd happily become his puppet grin

On a serious note, I just think bad policy is bad policy.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Pain(m): 6:51pm On Jan 04, 2012
What you fools who think only you are in possession of brains to UNDERSTAND SUBSIDY don't get is that Nigerians are not totally in disagreement of the removal but are against the sharp cut-over without any cushion or palliatives to accommodate the sudden shock. What the VOODOO ECONOMISTS should have advised Jonathan is a GRADUAL/PHASED implementation! This is after providing a bit of evidence as regards social/economic infrastructure like "Work-in-Progress" Refineries etc etc.

Don't come here and act as if it is only you that was born with brains bigger than 95% of Nigerians!!
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by zinosleek(m): 6:51pm On Jan 04, 2012
Nigerians do not see d basic economy of subsidy removal,its a policy where a few get richer at d govt expense from money d govt can put into other use. Nigerians are asking d govt to arrest those gaining from subsidy,but that's impossible because the subsidy is legally put in place by goverment, d only way to get to them is to remove it. Nigerians shld not be going to the street to protest subsidy removal but take measures to hold goverment accountable for money obtained for subsidy removal.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Bliss4Lyfe(f): 6:53pm On Jan 04, 2012
Pain:

What you fools who think only you are in possession of brains to UNDERSTAND SUBSIDY don't get is that Nigerians are not totally in disagreement of the removal but are against the sharp cut-over without any cushion or palliatives to accommodate the sudden shock. What the VOODOO ECONOMISTS should have advised Jonathan is a GRADUAL/PHASED implementation! This is after providing a bit of evidence as regards social/economic infrastructure like "Work-in-Progress" Refineries etc etc.

Don't come here and act as if it is only you that was born with brains bigger than 95% of Nigerians!!


OK, exactly how much time do u need? 60-70years?  
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by ektbear: 6:57pm On Jan 04, 2012
I've never been against slowly reducing it over the course of say 5 years. This is probably the less disruptive way of accomplishing the goal.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Feraz(m): 7:03pm On Jan 04, 2012
. . . .pls, y'all should forgive my ignorance but i want something to be clear to me (don't major in the field of economics). . . .what we hear in the news is subsidy removal while some people here say there was no subsidy in the first place that subsidy ended during obj's regime. . .if there was none, is it that we have been overpaying for petrol products? And does Nigeria as an oil producing country have any business subsidizing petroleum products and what sanusi said about the economy crashing if we continue to subsidise, how true is that? Thanks in advance to whoever explaining. . .
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Pain(m): 7:06pm On Jan 04, 2012
Bliss4Lyfe:

OK, exactly how much time do u need? 60-70years?  

As soon as you check out from your drain pipe accommodation in the UK.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Parnassuss(m): 7:17pm On Jan 04, 2012
omo alaro:

Deep Sight (m)« #7 on: Today at 10:57:24 AM »



It became N1.3Trillion because 2011 was an election year and fuel importers getting subsidies for phantom fuel supplied needed to fund PDP, Have you forgotten how PDP spent massively during the elections. Is anyone asking how they came about the huge money spent. I have told my friends long ago that we the masses will be made to pay for the campaign expenses very soon. this is also why the crooks can not be punished. They shared the money with PDP.

TRUTH!

Sanusi said "> Finally: removing subsidy is not a silver bullet that solves our economic problems. And there is a huge trust deficit that government has to address. Government needs to investigate subsidy payments and punish any violations of extant guidelines. It needs to cut on unnecessary and waste ful expenditure. It needs to fight corruption and show seriousness in that. It needs to deliver on capital projects, power and infrastructure including irrigation, farm-level storage and agri-processing. These are all valid issues that are to be taken IN ADDITION to and not in place of subsidy removal."

TRUTH!!

surugede:

Thank you sir.

but my question is, how does the removal subsidy benefit the ordinary Nigerian while that sum removed on the pump price now is  being paid by the masses, in order words, the importers losses nothing as that which thy has lost in the government (subsidy) is now being provided by the hungry Nigerians.

TRUTH!!!

Everybody agrees that the subsidy is wrong yet the question remains; who have profited the most from it? Is it not still politicians? If they remove subsidy is it not the same politicians who'll handle the monies gotten? Also what the heck has anybody done about the whooping 65bpd which have been stolen by the NNPC for almost a decade now? Why isn't this an issue.
If GEJ tackles corruption and starts to seize the wealth of these thieves, it'll be so easy to fund any project to any phase. In fact only then would he have gained the legitimacy to remove subsidy.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by ositadima1(m): 7:18pm On Jan 04, 2012
Bliss4Lyf such a hare head  **shakes head**
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Orikinla(m): 7:27pm On Jan 04, 2012
nosa2:

A statement by Sanusi made in a yahoo group



''I am not complaining about insults I am used to that. I just believe that an insult is not an argument and when people resort to personal abuse they have run out of logic.
>
> But to then go beyond me and extend it to my dead grandfather and his "descendants" ie my late father his siblings etc I think goes beyond the pale. As a Nigerian-and as an economist-i can take a position on economic matters and this position is one I have had for years even before coming in to the central bank. I have also explained the position on several occasions and criticised government for not doing this before. In 2010 at a public hearing in the House of Reps on the 25pct saga I alerted the nation of what I considered a potential big scam around subsidies and urged for its removal. No one paid attention. The economics is very clear to me. That it is unpopular is also understandable. The British public is unhappy with Tory budget cuts. The Greeks went on riot over austerity. Italian parliamentarians came to blows before Berlusconi was thrown out of office. The US congress is yet to approve Obamas tax increases.
>
> Economic decisions-by definition-ALWAYS must involve a cost or an opportunity cost since for them to qualify as economic they must involve a choice in resource allocation among competing uses. An enlightened debate is one that weighs the pros and cons of removing subsidy and continuing with it.
>
> Removing it has costs in terms of nigerians paying more for PMS-which by the way is not the fuel for genrators, power plants, production facilities, heavy duty goods transportation trucks and even luxury buses. It is fuel used by the middle class and car owners to drove around town and from city to city not to employ workers and produce goods and services. Diesel which is critical to manufacturing and employment creation is not subsidized as the subsidy was removed years ago by obasanjo. Nigerians said nothing then because it was blue collar workers that got retrenched by factories. Those speaking now on the internet and facebook and twitter and newspapers are not workers but middle class elite who use PMS in their smart cars so let's stop all the ideological pretence. This is not about elite and masses but an intra-elite discourse.
>
> I will summarise the issues and I write as a Nigerrian economist and public intellectual not as a public servant:
>
> 1. I am a strong advocate for subsidies if they are for production and not consumption, and if they benefit the poor and not middle men and rent seekers. The US government subsidizes cotton and wheat farmers and nigeria spends its reserves importing wheat from america and keeping american farmers employed. The OECD countried pay subsidies to cattle farmers. Today Promasidor imports powdered milk from New Zealand and packages in nigeria using our foreign exchange while we have cattle. WAMCO imports milk from the UK and adds water and tins it and calls it "production" of Peak milk. We use our forex to import petroleum products and keep refineries and jobs open in europe. Meanwhile precisely because of market distortions there can be no private sector investment in refineries since no one can make profit seling at the regulated price unless we are going to provide private refineries with crude for next to nothing. Certainly no one can purchase crude at market price, refine it and sell at N65 without huge losses so this explains why there are no private refineries.
>
> 2 what I mention above is the heart of the problem with government economic policy which needs to be changed. The economy since SAP is one that supports imported consumption and not local production, perpetuating dependency, non inclusive growth and insecurity. Why is it that the economy is growing at 7pct annually but the people are getting poorer. Because growth gains are not evenly distributed. Personal income is skewed towards people in the oil industry, telecomms, high finance, stock market, real estate and yes civil servants and politicians who feed on corruption. We produce crude oil but import petroleum products (today the UKs highest exports to nigeria are petroleum products). We have a large cotton belt but import textiles from china (thus keeping their subsidized factories open and jobs in china). We are the world's number 1 producer of cassava but import cassava starch from europe. We have a huge tomato belt in kadawa, jigawa and chad basin but are the world's largest importer of tomato paste-from China and Italy. We can produce rice but we import rice from Thailand and India-most of it from grain reserves that have been in stock for over 5 years, I can go on and on
>
> 3. If above is clear then it is evident that this trajectory can only lead to disaster. We will continue to spend our resources promoting growth and employment in our trading partners. Terms of trade shift against us, we can only have foreign reserves because by the good grace of God we have Oil which will be exhausted soon and with new discoveries may become so cheap it loses value. We don't create any value added jobs as the only real production is peasant farming. Oill, telecomms, finance and real estate are not employment intensive. So everyone becomes a civil servant as the economy cannot create jobs. Result? In 2012 budget out of a total N1.8tr recurrent expenditure for the executive arm N1.6tr is on personnel costs not overheads. To reduce this you have to cut salaries or pensions or retrench civil servants. This is the classic trajectory of underdevelopment, de-development and de-industrialisation.
> 4. For the above reasons I am a strong proponent of structural reform and this begins from the fiscal framework. The limited resources of government should be allocated to supporting production-especially if we are running a budget deficit. We cannot keep borrowing to support conspicuous consumption. To support a job creating economy we need to fund power, transportation infrastructure, market infrastructure and access, technical and vocational education etc. We need to build rice processing plants, produce starch and cassava flour and ethanol, process our tomato and milk locally, regenerate our textiles firms (which used to employ 600,000 workers but now employ 30,000!), refine our own crude etc. We cannot even begin to do this if 30pct of govt expenditure is on fuel subsidy, if out of the balance 70pct is recurrent spending, 10pct is debt service, 10pct goes to the niger delta and only 10pct is capital expenditure. So it is about a choice-what do we spend money on and how do we allocate resources?
> 5. We often compare ourselves to other oil producing countries like saudi arabia. What are the facts? With a population of over 160m we produce 2mbpd ie 1 barrel for every 80+ citizens daily. Govt share of revenues if like 50pct of every barrel so it is effectively a barrel for 160 citizens. Saudi Arabia with a 24m population produces over 8mbpd or one barrel for every 3 citizens. In fact in 2010 the nearest OPEC country to nigeria in production per capita was Algeria with a barrel for 30 and algeria is more gas than oil.
>
> With one barrel for 3 citizens dailt saudi arabia is able to provide infrastructure, education, healthcare and social safety nets and have huge savings. It can provide subsidised fuel at a total cost that is a fraction of its savings and even export refined products. It is paying for subsidies ouy od its fiscal savings and not borrowing to pay. We are like a poor man with a rich neighbour. The neighbour buids a good house, buys several cars, eat expensive food, travel abroad every year and still have huge balances in sevral current accounts. Then you choose to live that lifestyle and mortgage your house, take an overdraft from the bank to finance it. Next year it is time to repay the bank, u don't have the money so u go to another bank, borrow enough to pay the first bank principal plus interest and also fund the continuation of the lifestyle. It continues till u can't borrow anymore and the bank throws u and your family out of your house and you lose everything. A responsible father would have long since faced reality and told his family he doesn't earn as much as his neighbour and expectations need to be moderated if they to keep their roof. Of course the children won't be happy at not going to Hawaii for summer and having to take public transport rather than own cars like their neighbour's children. Maybe they will even abuse the father behind his back and call him a miser. That is the cost of leadership.
>
> Finally: removing subsidy is not a silver bullet that solves our economic problems. And there is a huge trust deficit that government has to address. [size=28pt]Government needs to investigate subsidy payments and punish any violations of extant guidelines. It needs to cut on unnecessary and waste ful expenditure. It needs to fight corruption and show seriousness in that. It needs to deliver on capital projects, power and infrastructure including irrigation, farm-level storage and agri-processing. These are all valid issues that are to be taken IN ADDITION to and not in place of subsidy removal.[/size]



The enlarged portion of the last paragraph is what President Goodluck Jonathan should do or he is chicken.
The oil marketers are leading members and sponsors of his ruling party and if he cannot prosecute them, then he is their accomplice and the revolution will not exclude him
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by texazzpete(m): 7:33pm On Jan 04, 2012
efisher:

The experts at the economists also think the way I do on this subject. I guess that makes the writers of the article "GEJ fans" as some have suggested. Lol

Please use your common sense.
The guys at the Economist are writing that article based on information gleaned from the Government. Mass opposition to the subsidy removal in Nigeria is due to the fact that the 'subsidy' is perhaps the only benefit millions of taxpaying Nigerians were getting from the Federal Government, and the only think making Nigeria's relatively meagre minimum wage acceptable.

Using statistics and words on paper alone to drive decisions alone is foolish. Afterall, logically it would greatly improve the standard of living of Nigerians if we use nerve gas to Kill 110 million people, leaving only 40 million mouths to feed. Does that mean it would be the right decision?

Most Nigerians feel that the money 'saved' from discontinuing the subsidy will be wasted as usual. On paper the likes of GEJ and Okonjo Iweala will babble and whine about 'eminent and reputable Nigerians' but Nigerians know that the NDDC was set up with similar promises and was staffed with 'eminent Nigerians'. look what happened!
We also know what happened to the $20 billion Excess Crude Account  dough shared by GEJ to his Governor buddies for 'infrastructural development'. All that money stolen!

Anybody who has faith in this corrupt and kleptocratic PDP Government is a cretin!
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Wexelion(m): 7:47pm On Jan 04, 2012
texazzpete:

Please use your common sense.
The guys at the Economist are writing that article based on information gleaned from the Government. Mass opposition to the subsidy removal in Nigeria is due to the fact that the 'subsidy' is perhaps the only benefit millions of taxpaying Nigerians were getting from the Federal Government, and the only think making Nigeria's relatively meagre minimum wage acceptable.

Using statistics and words on paper alone to drive decisions alone is foolish. Afterall, logically it would greatly improve the standard of living of Nigerians if we use nerve gas to Kill 110 million people, leaving only 40 million mouths to feed. Does that mean it would be the right decision?

Most Nigerians feel that the money 'saved' from discontinuing the subsidy will be wasted as usual. On paper the likes of GEJ and Okonjo Iweala will babble and whine about 'eminent and reputable Nigerians' but Nigerians know that the NDDC was set up with similar promises and was staffed with 'eminent Nigerians'. look what happened!
We also know what happened to the $20 billion Excess Crude Account  dough shared by GEJ to his Governor buddies for 'infrastructural development'. All that money stolen!

Anybody who has faith in this corrupt and kleptocratic PDP Government is a cretin!
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by nedostic: 8:15pm On Jan 04, 2012
@profosahon, your analysis says it all. removal of oil subsidy is a suicidal attempt on the Nigerian economy knowing fully well the nature of our mono-product economy. Methinks the removal of oil subsidy can be likened to cutting off social security schemes  of citizens of the western world. More so, the timing was ill-advised,I believe the Jonathan Gooodluck led-government should first tackle the issue of security and fight the good fight of abating corruption amongst political office holders likewise the civil service.

Oil subsidy removal would do us no good for the now, our basic problem has to do with profligacy of financial resources by government personnel. I wonder how much monies various governments have sunk into our refineries yet no turn around. NNPC has remained unaccountable to Nigerians likewise other governmental agencies.

The president and his advisers must be strategic and empathetic as well. There is a need for policy reversal and the government should listen more to the yearnings of the masses. Vox Populi Vox Dei!

The president owe it to us to deliver on his campaign promises. I believe he needs our support but not with this type of harsh policy.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Katsumoto: 8:46pm On Jan 04, 2012
ekt_bear:

If you are spending 7 billion a year on fuel subsidy and 1.4 billion alone goes to Oando, then how on earth can this be a sensible policy for uplifting the common man?

Damn.

So of this 7 billion, Oando and the rest take their share, Benin, Cameroon, Niger Republic take their cut.

How much does the average guy actually see. 10%? 20%?

Ekt Bear

I think you are confusing the points

Lets agree that the price of petrol is 140 Naira. The pump price is 65 Naira. The government pays the difference so that the Nigerian consumer can buy petrol at 65 Naira. If the government doesn't pay the difference, the importer would still make its profit, whatever that is. The cost to the Nigerian government, of maintaining that subsidy, is $7Billion. The profit, to an importer who engages in smuggling, that is made by diverting/smuggling Nigerian imported fuel to neighbouring countries is additional to the profit it makes from its legal operations. I do not believe that anyone has attempted to calculate the additional profit made from smuggling already subsidised petrol.

For instance, lets say company X imports petrol. It sells at 65Naira but the government pays the difference of 75 Naira. Its profit on these operation is actually 140 Naira less what it costs company X to import, lets say 100 Naira. So Company X makes 40 Naira per litre as profit. Company X may then have some senior managers who after collecting 75 Naira from the government, decide to smuggle the products and still sell at market price or slightly less. So the profit to Company X would be the 75 Naira (from the Nigerian Govt) plus the profit it makes from smuggling (140 Naira minus 100 Naira minus cost of smuggling).

The average Nigerian's benefit is the difference he/she receives by paying 65 Naira for a petrol that should cost him/her 140 Naira. Like I said yesterday, the benefit is real and direct. It is not an indirect benefit in terms of infrastructure, roads, power.
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by nnasino(m): 8:51pm On Jan 04, 2012
well said @nosa2
your explanation is the best i've read so far. I think the fuel subsidy should go. The govt should enlighten the people more on it. Before reading @nosa2's post i was also against it. The govt should also reduce their salaries and allowances as well.
God bless nigeria
Re: The Economist On Naija Fuel Subsidies by Katsumoto: 8:55pm On Jan 04, 2012
ekt_bear:

Nigeria’s subsidies
End them at once!
The president will be a brave man if he fulfils his promise to end cheap petrol
Dec 31st 2011 | LAGOS | from the print edition
PETROL subsidies are thought to cost Africa’s second-largest economy $7 billion a year—and Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Jonathan, says it is a priority for him to get rid of them in 2012. But most Nigerians think cheap fuel is the only benefit they get from living in an oil-rich country. As the prospect of life without subsidies looms, queues at petrol stations are lengthening, strikes are threatened and tension is rising.

Nigeria churns out 2m barrels a day (b/d) but imports almost its entire refined-fuel needs, owing to decades of mismanagement and corruption that have left its refineries to rot. Subsidies keep the pump price at $0.41 a litre but if Mr Jonathan has his way, this could rise to $0.74, in a country where most people live on less than $2 a day.

Successive governments have tried and failed to deregulate fuel imports. Mr Jonathan may show more backbone. But despite promises of safety nets to protect the poor and the need for new infrastructure and for improvements to the ragged electricity supply, Nigerians fear that the money saved by cutting fuel subsidies will be swallowed up by political fat cats.

The fuel subsidy drains cash from the state. The government has revealed that the chief beneficiaries are the 100-odd companies owned by Nigeria’s richest people, including Oando, the country’s largest indigenous private oil-and-gas firm, which alone netted $1.4 billion.[b] The subsidies also highlight the tortuous ways of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which has deliberately overestimated the cost of importing refined products and then pockets what is left over. The NNPC admitted in parliament that it could not account for 65,000 b/d of crude oil it should be refining, worth $7m a day at today’s price.
[/b]
[b]The government’s chronic failure to build working refineries has benefited middlemen. Imported petrol is siphoned off by third parties who take advantage of the cheap fuel in Nigeria, then smuggle it over the border to neighbouring countries where unsubsidised fuel costs three times Nigeria’s price. Billions of dollars earmarked for renovating refineries has vanished over the years. The country’s four refineries barely function: fine for those with political connections who make fortunes from imported fuel. [/b]If Mr Jonathan stops the scam yet keeps ordinary people calm, it will be a triumph.

http://www.economist.com/node/21542197

The issues in bold are the main problem.

Nigeria should not be importing petrol. It is a crude oil producer. There is no reason, other than corruption, why the refineries in Nigeria are not working. If the refineries are working, the cost of providing petrol at the pumps in Nigeria would be at least half the cost of importing and marketing it. If the government is sincere, it should

1. Repair the refineries
2. Tackle corruption in NNPC, Customs, and other parastatals
3. Man its borders more effectively and efficiently. This will not only tackle smuggling but the menace of terrorism which is slowly creeping into Nigeria.

I also believe that the article fell short in that it didn't attempt to calculate the negative effect on GDP from the increased cost of buying fuel. The less that people have to spend on non-essential products such as recharge cards, entertainment, restaurants, cinema, etc the more the Nigerian economy will shrink. Similarly, no one from the CBN has mentioned the anticipated impact on inflation as people save less from having to pay more for petrol.

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