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True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal - Politics - Nairaland

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True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by Seun(m): 8:13pm On Jan 11, 2012
Is puzzled if each day of the strike is costing the country N320Billion, then by day 3(today) we should have lost N960Billion? If we spent N1.3Trillion on Fuel subsidy over 9 months shouldn't someone very high up be sacked or be getting ready to resign? Or is my maths messed up?
Q. how did you come up with the N320bn figure?
A. Channels TV(check their ticker tape below the headline)

Wrong. According to the World Bank (via Google) Nigeria's annual GDP is about 200 billion dollars (about 32 trillion naira).  The daily GDP is therefore about N32tr/365 or 87 billion naira.  If we assume that there's absolutely no production going on in Nigeria right now as a result of the strike, then we could say the daily cost of the strike is about N87bn.

But you know as well as I do that ATM machines, telcos, websites and TV and radio stations, newspapers are working. Many businesses are running skeletally, especially in remote regions and the South-East. Moreso our primary source of foreign exchange, our oil wells, are still working and crude oil is still being exported. It would be more fair to say that, as a country, we are losing just 50% of our productivity to the strike. That would put the cost of the strike at N44bn per day, or about 130 billion naira so far, based on our preceding assumptions.

It would take about a month for our 'losses' as a result of the strike to exceed the subsidy amount.

That's what we are all losing by sitting at home, but here's the thing: that's not what the Nigerian government is losing. The government's losses are limited to the income they would have obtained as a result of our productivity. Right now, the government relies on the export of crude oil and not our taxes for most of its revenue, and certain costs to the government have been saved because we're no longer consuming public services as much as we usually would, so it would take months for the government's losses to come close to the subsidy removal savings. Sorry.
Re: True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by HenryO49: 8:17pm On Jan 11, 2012
ya, this makes sense.
Re: True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by DeepSight(m): 8:20pm On Jan 11, 2012
The strike is meaningless unless Oil Production and Exportation is shut down.
Re: True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by HenryO49: 8:51pm On Jan 11, 2012
true, just thinking, maybe just the oil sector strike would have been more effective in getting govt attention. stop producing 4million barrel a day and you would get international attention.
all these market women and transporters contribute <10% to the economy.
Re: True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by Seun(m): 10:19pm On Jan 11, 2012
@Henry049: Yes, and I think the petroleum engineers union is planning to shut down the oil wells soon.
Re: True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by Nobody: 10:27pm On Jan 11, 2012
Deep Sight:

The strike is meaningless unless Oil Production and Exportation is shut down.

Very right. The govt won't allow them shut down oil production for 10hours.
Re: True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by Remii(m): 10:39pm On Jan 11, 2012
mistypiper:

Very right. The govt won't allow them shut down oil production for 10hours.

any way, the best is to avoid shut down. it takes hours to complete shutdown. if wells are shut, some may not readily flow after resolution by mere reopening of valves. some may require work-over to re establish flowing, this could be costly. Nigeria would still pay for all these.
Re: True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by Nobody: 10:46pm On Jan 11, 2012
Now i see!
Re: True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by Mobinga: 11:12pm On Jan 11, 2012
Bull.

The government would only listen when it is incurring losses, and when pressure is mounted on them.

I don't think the NLC strike is in any way aimed at making the government losses on par or exceeding the subsidy cost itself. That would be an unrealistic aim. Rather the action is aimed at mounting pressure at the clowns.
Re: True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by blacksta(m): 11:19pm On Jan 11, 2012
My sources have confirmed that the shut down process has started since Monday, complete halt might happen over the weekend
Re: True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by ebenezer95(m): 2:36pm On Jan 15, 2012
what is going on now?
Re: True Cost Of NLC Strike Over Fuel Subsidy Removal by OmoTier1(m): 4:14pm On Jan 15, 2012
Seun, how about the non-financial loss resulting from the strike? Sure that is more important that the financial loss figures you have put up albeit no quite correct!

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