Never before has a date in history been so significant to so many cultures, so many religions, scientists, and governments. “2012” is an epic adventure about a global cataclysm that brings an end to the world and tells of the heroic struggle of the survivors. – 2012 Movie

AT the beginning of the year 2011, many Nigerians had greater than life expectations. At the time, many spiritual leaders and prophets including traditionalists, seers, parapsychologists all had the same message for Nigerians, “that Nigeria will be better for it at the April 2011 Elections and that Nigeria will be better for it at the end of the year”. These prophetic revelations and predictions formed the basis of decision on the part of most Nigerians to come out enmasse to participate in the last general elections. Year 2011, also the advancement of right-wing and anti-people arguments to convince Nigerians on the need for the removal of the ‘subsidy’ on petroleum and attempt by President Jonathan and his cabinet to consult widely employing IBB style (a populist debate to rationalise government action).

But the interesting thing about the so-called state sponsored consultations and debates was that before the consultations and debates had ended, President Jonathan on the January 1, 2012, through Petroleum Products Pricing and Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) announced the removal of ‘subsidy’ on fuel in Nigeria, as a kind of New Year (2012) gift. As if 2012 will be different, prophets, parapsychologists and their likes had barely concluded their predictions before Nigerians are being asked to pay more than 215% in pump price for fuel (that is premium motor spirit PMS). Reports in the media pointed toward the real effects (backlash) which are already being felt by the people with multiplier dimensions. To say prices have gone up is an understatement. However the crux of the matter here is no more the hike and its multiplier effects, nor Dr. Christopher Kolade’s board of the Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme, neither is it Justice Alfa Belgore’s committee which is expected to dialogue with organized labour. It is that federal government of Nigeria owes Nigerians trillions of Naira which must be paid back, so that the people can pay for the consequences of the ‘subsidy’ withdrawal. Paying this amount is not a favour that palliatives from the two groups appointed by President Jonathan can negotiate away.

Fact of figures is that the Nigeria federal government is currently (at the time of writing this piece) owing Nigerians a total of over Sixty four trillion, two hundred and sixty-six billion and sixty million naira (N64, 266,060, 000, 000 trillion) in excess amount paid for fuel over the last 12 years of the present civilian dispensation. The figure represents the combined contributions by Nigerians to the now defunct Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) and in Road Tax or Levy collected over the last nine years (following the dismantling of toll gates and stoppage toll fares collection across the country. For the avoidance of doubt, when in 1994, the late General Sani Abacha military regime increased pump price of fuel to N17 per litre, and at the same time placed a N2 per litre surcharge on every litre of petrol bought by Nigerians, the regime explained to Nigerians that the money accruing from the surcharge will be administered by PTF to supplement government spending on infrastructural provisions across the country. PTF was disbanded by President Olusegun Obasanjo on assumption of office and directed appropriate ministries to take over the function of PTF.

However, the disbandment of PTF did not lead to cancellation of the Abacha N2 fuel surcharge by President Obasanjo. Rather than reduce the pump price, fuel price went up by almost 350% to N65 per litre. In the same vein, following the dismantling of the toll gates and subsequent cancellation of toll collection on Nigeria roads in 2003, President Obasanjo also introduced road tax of about N2.50. For ease of collection, the amount was also built into the N65 pump price for petrol. This also means that for every litre of fuel purchased at pump, Nigerians have been specially taxed and this collection has been ongoing for the last nine (9) years. As a follow-up, to the ‘subsidy’ withdrawal, President Jonathan is already mulling the return of tolls on Nigeria’s roads through cronies masquerading as private investors despite the huge amount of money contributed by Nigerians to maintain the same roads through road tax or levy.

According to a pilot study of used oils in Nigeria conducted by Prof. O. A. Bamiro (National Expert) and Prof. O. Osibanjo (Project Coordinator) for the Basel Convention Secretariat, there are a total of six million (6M) registered vehicles in Nigeria as of 2004. Of the 6 million vehicles, sixty per cent (60%) are cars or 4,200,000 cars (4.2m), while the remaining 1, 800,000 (1.8m) are trucks and buses. By 2007, the number has risen to seven million (7m), according to the Federal Roads Safety Commission (FRSC). This data from the FRSC therefore suggests that a million vehicles are registered in Nigeria every three year. Therefore, relying on the 2007 data from FRSC, the total number of registered vehicles in Nigeria at the end of year 2011 is eight million with a total of approximately six million being numbers for cars while trucks and buses translate to approximately two million.

Going by simple economics and mathematics, eight million (8m) vehicles will translate to about 50 vehicles for every 1000 Nigerians. Therefore, if we go by statistics provided by Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), a total of 445, 000 litres of fuel is consumed daily in Nigeria. Factoring NNPC data on daily consumption, it therefore suggests that a total of 2,670 million litres is consumed weekly based on twice a week fuel refill which translates to 1, 38,840,000,000 trillion litres for 52 weeks. In 12 years, Nigerians would have consumed a total of 16, 66, 080, 000,000 litres and by implication paid a total of N33, 32, 160, 000,000 trillion in excess for fuel going by the N2 fuel surcharge of 1996 which was cancelled in 1999.

As a corollary, based on the annual fuel consumption of 1, 38,840,000,000 trillion litres, the total consumption for nine years since the stoppage of toll collection on Nigerian roads and introduction of N2 road tax and levy is 12, 49, 560, 000, 000 trillion litres and by implication paid a total of N24, 99, 120, 000,000 in excess payment for pump price of petroleum. This combination of the Abacha fuel surcharge and OBJ road tax accumulates to a total of N64, 266,060, 000, 000 trillion and the amount represent the amount being owed Nigerians. Having painstakingly established the amount being owed Nigerians by successive governments since 1999, it is rather surprising that none on the government side has bothered to mention these invaluable contributions of Nigerians towards the boosting of the country’s economy and by implication development and maintenance of the same infrastructures as the purported President Jonathan’s proceeds from ‘subsidy’ removal would be directed towards.

From the foregoing, it is evidently established that ordinary Nigerians have been subsidising pump price of fuel used since 1994 and by implication the provision and maintenance of infrastructures such roads, hospitals, schools (including funding universities, polytechnics and monotechnics), among others. Had this amount been judiciously directed towards the original purposes it was meant to serve including the refurbishment and maintenance of the four (4) existing refineries like the PTF did under retired General Buhari as the chairman of PTF, there would not have been a complete breakdown and degeneration of these infrastructures. This goes to buttress the arguments that the real problem as attested to by President Jonathan, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala and CBN Governor Lamido Sanusi is corruption and not the pump price of fuel.

From the analysis presented in this write up, it is very clear the government and its spin doctors and fuzzy economists can come forward to ask, how do we share the money? This is very simple; there is no need to physically return this money to every Nigerian. This amount can count towards paying for the so-called subsidy for the next 21 years, eight months, factoring the phantom amount being claimed by President Jonathan as (N1. 3trillion) as the ‘true cost of the subsidy’ per year. This appears an easy way out for a federal government so desperate to play to IMF/World Bank dictates and to present itself as fellow traveller that shares the pains of Nigerians.

• Dr. Kola-Olusanya is of the Department of Geography and Resource Studies, Osun State University, Okuku Campus, Osun State.