manny4life:

Dude, contributing what exactly? GDP or Revenues, which?

I've always maintained that OIL contributes about 72% of Nigeria's Revenues, but contributes about 15% of Nigeria's GDP. What part of it are you confused about?

With regards to the U.S. reducing purchase volume, isn't it common sense that if your major buyer reduced about 50% of their purchase from you, revenues will decline? Same rule applies, U.S. reduces purchase volume, Nigeria has to export to Asia to meet up revenue benchmark else they'll run deficit and can't pay their bills.

Lol...

PhysicsQED:

This is true.

But I think the reason people get so annoyed about being told that they're living off of oil is because they know that without oil they wouldn't "be Somalia" like some people are claiming (well, actually, maybe much of the North would be Somalia) and they know that there are many successful countries that don't rely on oil. They are right to question the exaggerated picture being painted of oil keeping them from Somalian poverty, but at the same time they should acknowledge that oil contributes majorly to the development of all regions of Nigeria. I don't know why this last part seems so hard to do.

Even with the right leadership, the Northern part of Nigeria will never become Somalia. Most of our leaders became lazy to look out for other source of income because they are too comfortable with oil money from Abuja majority of which are not even spent for the people.

Stop the oil money 'handout', and let serious leaders emerge and you see even the Northern part turning out better than it is after a while.

all4naija: It contributes close to 90% revenue and 70% of the GDP!

On both case, brother YOU LIE...

I've actually reviewed archived documents from FMF (Federal Ministry of Finance) about the Revenue profile, and in no damn way does oil contribute 90%. Talk about 70% of GDP, dude, are you really serious? So I guess, Healthcare, Insurance, Retail, Real Estate, Agriculture, Mining, Manufacturing, Banking, Services, Hospitality, Entertainment, and the list is endless are all made up of 30%? Dude, get your fact straight man.

Obiagu1:

. . . and where did you get that from?

Nna, help me ask am o,

all4naija: Lol...

Your problem is that you use this emoticons without saying anything. Dude, seriously, QUIT IT.

Obiagu1:

. . . and where did you get that from?

CIA fact file is a good source stating 90% revenue. While Africa news journal put it 40% contribution to GDP. Looking at the prevailing rate of exchange in international market, the nominal GDP contribution of oil to Nigerian economy is as high as 70%.

Obiagu1:

. . . and where did you get that from?

Me sef wonder o. Voodoo Economics I guess.

@ OP

Without petrodollars, how would we finance imports considering that we are an import dependent economy? How would we buy our rice, wheat, fish, sugar, edible oils, electronics, fertilizer, cars, clothes, diesel, pms to mention very few? Without the oil dollars, there would be agonizing inflation as prices of essentials would skyrocket out of the reach of the masses and painful austerity measures would follow. Oil is the lifeblood of Nigeria.

manny4life:


Your problem is that you use this emoticons without saying anything. Dude, seriously, QUIT IT.

It is for the simple reason what you stated is related to increasing GDP. I don't know what to say about your argument though!

all4naija: CIA fact file is a good source stating 90% revenue. While Africa news journal put it 40% contribution to GDP. Looking at the prevailing rate of exchange in international market, the nominal GDP contribution on oil to Nigerian economy is as high as 70%.

If you actually know what GDP is, you'll know it's impossible for oil or any sector in Nigeria to contribute up to 90%.

By the way, post your source.

Obiagu1:

If you actually know what GDP is, you'll know it's impossible for oil or any sector in Nigeria to contribute up to 90%.

By the way, post your source.

Not on GDP dude. On national/government foreign revenue it can be possible.

Obiagu1:

If you actually know what GDP is, you'll know it's impossible for oil or any sector in Nigeria to contribute up to 90%.

By the way, post your source.

Me sef have gone through CIA world fact book, did not see anything supporting his theory

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html

all4naija: It is for the simple reason what you stated is related to increasing GDP. I don't know what to say about your argument though!

Dude, I'm confused to what you're saying. I'm a lil bamboozled. Help me out again, what is it I said you're disputing?

all4naija: Not on GDP dude. On national/government foreign revenue it can be possible.

Even 70% of GDP you stated is impossible in Nigeria.

manny4life:

Me sef have gone through CIA world fact book, did not see anything supporting his theory

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html



Dude, I'm confused to what you're saying. I'm a lil bamboozled. Help me out again, what is it that I said is it that you're disputing?

With regards to the U.S. reducing purchase volume, isn't it common sense that if your major buyer reduced about 50% of their purchase from you, revenues will decline? Same rule applies, U.S. reduces purchase volume, Nigeria has to export to Asia to meet up revenue benchmark else they'll run deficit and can't pay their bills.

Isn't it true that if government revenue is reduced that would definitely have effect on the percentage of GDP? In the 'Laffer Curve' that is possible!

Thanks mannylife for the link.

@all4naija, a quick look at "your" CIA fact book.

GDP: $414.5 billion (How much do we make from oil sef?)

GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 35.4%
industry: 33.6%
services: 31%

So bros stop arguing!

all4naija:

Isn't it true that if government revenue is reduced that would definitely have effect on the percentage of GDP? In the 'Laffer Curve' that is possible!

Ok dude, you're confused on a larger scale. Oil sale is an economic activity, reduction in sales will affect revenues. Yes it will definitely affect the % contribution to GDP. However, I'm still of the fact that Oil revenues represent about 72% and Oil GDP is about 15%.

kalokalo: @ OP

Without petrodollars, how would we finance imports considering that we are an import dependent economy? How would we buy our rice, wheat, fish, sugar, edible oils, electronics, fertilizer, cars, clothes, diesel, pms to mention very few? Without the oil dollars, there would be agonizing inflation as prices of essentials would skyrocket out of the reach of the masses and painful austerity measures would follow. Oil is the lifeblood of Nigeria.

No, oil is Nigeria's vampire!

Oh yes the resource curse. Sweet sweet black gold. Few nations have been able to master its true potential.

ekt_bear: Let's take all4naija's 70% of GDP estimate and see where it leads us.

~2 million barrels of oil per day. ~$100 value. ~365 days.

octave:4> 2*1e6*100*365/1e9
ans = 73

So $73 billion economy from just oil exports. Let's say associated oil services add +50% to that. We get to roughly $110 billion.

Now, using all4naija's 70% figure, we get that the total Nigeria economy is $160 billion.

I think the general sense people have is that Nigeria's economy is closer to $250 billion+, not only $160.

So either the economist are vastly overestimating the size of Nigeria's economy....or this 70% estimate produced by all4naija is way too high.

Nigeria earns more than 100 billion dollars from oil and gas per annum.

Obiagu1: Thanks mannylife for the link.

@all4naija, a quick look at "your" CIA fact book.

GDP: $414.5 billion (How much do we make from oil sef?)

GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 35.4%
industry: 33.6%
services: 31%

So bros stop arguing!

You are not looking at it very well. Check it again.$414.5 billion dollar is GDP(PPP) not nominal.

all4naija: You are not looking at it very well. Check it again.$414.5 billion dollar is GDP(PPP) not nominal.

LMAO! A beg, what's the nominal value?

manny4life:

Ok dude, you're confused on a larger scale. Oil sale is an economic activity, reduction in sales will affect revenues. Yes it will definitely affect the % contribution to GDP. However, I'm still of the fact that Oil revenues represent about 72% and Oil GDP is about 15%.

I am not confused at all! That's your guess work. CIA said 80% government revenue. Other agencies say 40% contributor to GDP and some believe it is as high as 70%. Taking to the poor statistics available in Nigeria, I would opt for the 70% for the encouraging side of things to beef up other sectors!

Can you see I am on the need for Nigeria to diversify its economy?!

Obiagu1:

LMAO! A beg, what's the nominal value?

About %179 billion dollars

all4naija: About %179 billion dollars

OK you win. Case closed.

Obiagu1:

OK you win. Case closed.

You are very funny! Win what?! We are only arguing. Come on!

all4naija: I am not confused at all! That's your guess work. CIA said 80% government revenue. Other agencies say 40% contributor to GDP and some believe it is as high as 70%. Taking to the poor statistics available in Nigeria, I would opt for the 70% for the encouraging side of things to beef up other sectors!

Can you see I am on the need for Nigeria to diversify its economy?!

There's is no poor statistics, it's you who hasn't taken the time to review the NBS, FMF, stats. No matter how poor it is, it still can be used as a yardstick either way. I'm done with this argument.

This one wey una dey talk na long grammar, dey show data wey una no even know the meaning.

The day wey una FOREX reserve go finish, that day una go know say Amadioha & Egbesu combine done dey punish all of una.

I rest my case, work dey tomorrow.

kalokalo: @ OP

Without petrodollars, how would we finance imports considering that we are an import dependent economy? How would we buy our rice, wheat, fish, sugar, edible oils, electronics, fertilizer, cars, clothes, diesel, pms to mention very few? Without the oil dollars, there would be agonizing inflation as prices of essentials would skyrocket out of the reach of the masses and painful austerity measures would follow. Oil is the lifeblood of Nigeria.

Preach, bro!

Oil pays for everything in Nigeria, all amenities, services, utilities etc, police, army, airports, roads, schools, hospitals... It almost pays for the air we breath even.
I keep preaching to people to learn to hold their local politicians to account; reps, LG bosses, governors etc. But would Nigerians hear? They remain deaf and tied to awuf, yet if that "free" money suddenly dries up tomorrow (as it will in a maximum of 10 years) then Somalia will look like Las Vegas to us, parents will eat their babies, husbands would kill their wives to eat... It will be dire, lights out, cataclysmic, total doomsday.

Let each and every one of us demand local delivery and accountability from our LG's, reps, states etc. Let us all preach true federalism with fevered vigour, that is our only hope for a bright future.

An advice coming from someone who said a risk manager performs macroeconomic analysis, that really means a lot.

The stats is fraudulent and misleading. if oil stops running today Naija is finished.

ballabriggs: This is erroneous.

Crude oil contributes over 70% of Nigeria's foreign exchange. For an import dependent economy, Oil is the life wire of the economy.

Secondly, it is the earnings from oil which drives other activities that form the component of GDP.

Don't be deceived, take away the oil and your economy is doomed.

You can't get the true picture by mere viewing such data without an analysis.

that said take away agriculture and we would be more doomed.. in my opinion no industry should contribute more than 10% for a really diversified economy

Katsumoto:

So basically, all countries only earn forex from trade; if we follow that line of reasoning what happens to countries that have negative trade deficits? If a country is importing more than it is exporting, where is it getting its forex from if forex is only gotten from trade? Which then leads to the next issue you raised, depletion of reserves and then inflation, dollarization etc.

Since we know that a majority of nations run deficit trade balances, shouldn't a majority of nations have some form of economic crisis if we follow your argument?

With regards to Argentina, its problems were caused by pegging, high levels of debts and reduced income from exports as a result of the overvalued Peso. Governments don't borrow to shore up reserves; in fact, no one will lend you money to shore up your reserves.

See below

'The Argentine economic crisis during the early 2000’s was the result of a decision, by one of their presidents named Carlos Menem (1991), to peg the Argentine Peso to the U.S. Dollar. The reason for this was to produce financial stability for his country by placing a one-to- one parity between the two currencies. Another factor that contributed to this turmoil was the fact that the government controlled the flow of currency based on inflow of U.S. Dollars that came from investments and so the Argentine economy accelerated at a much faster pace than anticipated. The unregulated currency became overvalued thus putting their country at a disadvantage by making their exports more expensive and forcing them to import more goods. The situation only worsened when the local governments kept spending money frivolously without regard as to how much they were borrowing. Within time the government saw it necessary to reduce the amount of spending to reduce the amount of imports they country bought and to keep the level of debt small but by that time it was too late.'

http://www.thecsem.org/content/argentine-currency-crisis

Egbon mi, you run comot that thread. You don dey post your usual trash for hear again.

Yoruba vs Ibo local champion

Ile-Ife:
The stats is fraudulent and misleading. if oil stops running today Naija is finished.

I endorse your post.


How many states can survive just three months without federal allocation? What's that allocation if not petrodollars?

If that statistics together with breakdown figures were correct, it would reflect in our politics.