ganisucks:

He is not strong, given. Bode George will work against him. But there are still some PDP heavyweights in PDP Lagos that will work for him.

Lol, which Bode George? Nigga

Peter Obi will beat ATiku in Lagos with serious margin. Tinubu will win though

Workch:
Lol, which Bode George? Nigga

Peter Obi will beat ATiku in Lagos with serious margin. Tinubu will win though

I meant Bode George will work for Obi, and against Atiku.

SlavaUkraini:
Tinubu would win Lagos State and lose the general elections...

He would remain the landlord of Lagos State

The election is not sure for any of three candidates ....

federal power might help Tinubu .....

N3TRAL:
Your assumption is that anyone who won't vote Tinubu will vote Peter Obi.

You are definitely oblivious of PDP's political structures in Lagos.

In 2015 it was PDP vs APC

In 2019 it was APC vs PDP

2023 it would be APC vs PDP splited between LP and NNPP.

Also , in 2015 and 2019 it wasn't a south westerner on the ballot. In 2023, it is a Yoruba Man that will be on the ballot.

PDP structures have collapsed in Lagos. The Igbos have departed the party to support their Labour Party. Some Yorubas have departed to APC.

However, a lot of Yorubas who always voted PDP in Lagos have remained there. PDP will do better than LP in many posh areas because there are elites who are financing PDP.

Funke Akindele , Davido, Banky W etc have always supported PDP for instance. They're still supporting PDP.

PDP will definitely lose most Igbo votes but will not lose any significant Yoruba vote. The worst that can happen to PDP is that its votes will be splited thereby giving APC a gap advantage.

APC will win Lagos with a wide margin even though the total votes they get will only be slightly higher than what they've always had.

If APC has above 50% like they've always had, they will win with a wide Margin because Atiku will definitely have his 25%.

Compare 2023 elections to Sanwo Olu's Governorship Elections when Igbo voters were supporting Agbaje and Ambode was their darling. That's a typical example of Yoruba electorates choosing a Yoruba on the Ballot not a splited decision between two Fulanis.

Lagos has the highest number of enlightened people in Nigeria who knows the backgrounds of Tinubu, Obi and Atiku.
This will work against Tinubu since he has lots of skeletons in his cupboard.

Even if Lagosians vote along tribal sentiment like you predicted, it will still not favour Tinubu. Many of the igbos in Lagos have not been showing interest in politics. With Obi on ballot, more than 70% of Igbo eligible voters in Lagos will participate in 2023 election. If all of them cast their vote on that day, Peter Obi can get over 400,000 votes from igbos in Lagos.

Tinubu will win majority of Yoruba votes. However, unlike Obi, many Yoruba youths are not supporting Tinubu. They have decided to support Obi who is the candidate of the youths. This can make Tinubu loss at least 20% of Yoruba votes.

Also unfortunately for Tinubu, many Hausa/ Fulani residents that voted APC in 2015 and 2019 due to Buhari will be voting Atiku or Kwankwaso in 2023.

Hence for Tinubu to even narrowly win Lagos, his touts need to cause havoc on election day in area dominated by igbos. He also needs to bribe election officials to sabotage election materials and manipulate figures for him like he did in previous elections.

kingmaster2009:


The election is not sure for any of three candidates ....

federal power might help Tinubu .....

You can argue if you like.
Take this to the bank, Tinubu will be 3rd.

If Tinubu defeat ATiku in NW and NE, make I die.

If Tinubu defeat Obi and ATiku in north central make I die.

If Tinubu defeat Obi in southsouth ans southeast, make I die.

Save this post.

Tinubu ma lule, this election is between ATiku and Obi

politicians will win Lagos, but the win will would politically irrelevant

Lol Your thought is highly welcomed but very far from realityLol Your thought is highly welcomed but very far from reality...

ganisucks:

You are counting on rigging and federal might, and you have no idea who does the rigging and how it's done.

You are confused. According to you I am counting on rigging and it is still me that does not know what rigging is and how it is done. Come, I'm not an obidense that you finger their brains.

Workch:
You can argue if you like.
Take this to the bank, Tinubu will be 3rd.

If Tinubu defeat ATiku in NW and NE, make I die.

If Tinubu defeat Obi and ATiku in north central make I die.

If Tinubu defeat Obi in southsouth ans southeast, make I die.

Save this post.

Tinubu ma lule, this election is between ATiku and Obi

Your analysis is sentimental and.misleading

kingmaster2009:


Your analysis is sentimental and.misleading

Ok, save the post.

Workch:
In 2015, Buhari then polled 792,460 votes, while Jonathan got 632,327.

Buhari polled 580,814 votes to beat Atiku, who got 448,016 votes.

To be fair, one can argue that this election was mostly rigged, especially in Alimosho local government.

Today, With BVAS, rigging is traceable and harder, we will have clearer picture of voting patterns. ATiku is dead in Lagos, we have to agree.
Lagos is between Peter Obi and Tinubu. Tinubu maybe popular with the areas boys and some native Yorubas however not every Yoruba are his fan. There are right thinking Yorubas that won’t vote for him, a lot of them are my friends. Lagos is too cosmopolitan for Tinubu to clear, we have to agree.
The endsars saga will also work against him. He will not get votes from many Christian communities even within the Yoruba circle.

I expect Tinubu to win Lagos anyways, but the margin will not be huge if all things are equal.
I expect to see this figures

Tinubu: 50%
Obi: 40%
Others: 10%

Although, we Cannot totally overrule Peter obi winning Lagos If APC sleeps on it.
What’s your thought?

Good analysis but saying "right thinking yorubas will not vote Tinubu" is not fair. Some Yorubas will have good reasons to vote him, we have over 15million of SW voters.

Tinubu will win SW for sure, but LP may get 25% in at least 3 of the states.

I support PO, but will not call other candidate supporters wrong thinking.

kingmaster2009:


Lagos State is a representation of entire Nigeria ...
Your analysis lacks credibility...

The reason why tinubu will win Lagos state is that
1. He has the state governor's backing
2..which is the most important one is that Atiku and Jonathan got that figure when we only had two options....now, there are three options

We have Atiku, Peter Obi, and Tinubu
In 2015, the vote of the Yiibo people and PDP was given.to Atiku but in 2023, Yiibo people will vote for Obi, Which will drastically reduce the percentage of votes Atiku had in 2015, While Tinubu will still maintain his structure in Lagos State

It's analysis, no fight or names calling.

I want to believe lot of factors will change the tide of voting in 2023. Sincerely yours, thr Buhari administration has done more harm to APC than good. PMB's body language is also not in favour of his party.

If it were BAT to be in power, he won't assent to the electoral law nor accept the change in our currency. Not for selfish interest but that's how he plays his politics. No offense.

You see BVAS, awareness of people on electoral process, state of the economy and negative news on Tinubu are all factors to consider in the 2023 elections. The learned are ready to vote. Youths are ready to vote. These group of people rarely vote in past elections.

Permutations and calculations, there is still more job for APC at the center to do before elections. People are not happy. If that anger lingers tull next year, hmmm..my brother BAT may looses heavily in the South West.

Why I didn't use past results to measure the future is because things have changed. The electoral law alone has made everything (rigging) difficult. The number of voters especially amongst youths have increased so much. The economy was always in good shape when election is coming but next election, people are not smiling.

Let's see how it unfolds but it's bleak for APC candidates across board except Ogun where the Governor is playing a smart game with the parties. Blocked APM. Sent opposition to court .

meetme01:


It's analysis, no fight or names calling.

I want to believe lot of factors will change the tide of voting in 2023. Sincerely yours, thr Buhari administration has done more harm to APC than good. PMB's body language is also not in favour of his party.

If it were BAT to be in power, he won't assent to the electoral law nor accept the change in our currency. Not for selfish interest but that's how he plays his politics. No offense.

You see BVAS, awareness of people on electoral process, state of the economy and negative news on Tinubu are all factors to consider in the 2023 elections. The learned are ready to vote. Youths are ready to vote. These group of people rarely vote in past elections.

Permutations and calculations, there is still more job for APC at the center to do before elections. People are not happy. If that anger lingers tull next year, hmmm..my brother BAT may looses heavily in the South West.

Why I didn't use past results to measure the future is because things have changed. The electoral law alone has made everything (rigging) difficult. The number of voters especially amongst youths have increased so much. The economy was always in good shape when election is coming but next election, people are not smiling.

Let's see how it unfolds but it's bleak for APC candidates across board except Ogun where the Governor is playing a smart game with the parties. Blocked APM. Sent opposition to court .

APC will still win, the so called opposition are just disgruntled members of either APC or PDP.

No honor amongst the fantastically corrupt.

dat9jaguy:


Wait for election day, no need jumping the gun.

What exactly will happen on election day!

You want to rig?

What if the rigging is not successful, what will you do.

We know that LP is pushing for a free and fare election but APC AND PDP are not, because they want to rig. They've never talked about inec conducting a clean election.

shame on them

The mood of the nation now, shows that APC AND PDP will not win the election.

Wait for election day my foot.

You think people are joking with this election.

kingmaster2009:


The election is not sure for any of three candidates ....

federal power might help Tinubu .....

Federal might will not save Tinubu from being disgraced at the upcoming General Elections...

Nigerians have rejected him and the federal government that he sold to Nigerians....

The will of the people must prevail....

kingmaster2009:


Lagos State is a representation of entire Nigeria ...
Your analysis lacks credibility...

The reason why tinubu will win Lagos state is that
1. He has the state governor's backing
2..which is the most important one is that Atiku and Jonathan got that figure when we only had two options....now, there are three options

We have Atiku, Peter Obi, and Tinubu
In 2015, the vote of the Yiibo people and PDP was given.to Atiku but in 2023, Yiibo people will vote for Obi, Which will drastically reduce the percentage of votes Atiku had in 2015, While Tinubu will still maintain his structure in Lagos State

Yerooba Muslims only will vote Tinubu! TINUBU will lose Lagos to Obi.

Lmao, Indian statistics

Workch:
In 2015, Buhari then polled 792,460 votes, while Jonathan got 632,327.

Buhari polled 580,814 votes to beat Atiku, who got 448,016 votes.

To be fair, one can argue that this election was mostly rigged, especially in Alimosho local government.

Today, With BVAS, rigging is traceable and harder, we will have clearer picture of voting patterns. ATiku is dead in Lagos, we have to agree.
Lagos is between Peter Obi and Tinubu. Tinubu maybe popular with the areas boys and some native Yorubas however not every Yoruba are his fan. There are right thinking Yorubas that won’t vote for him, a lot of them are my friends. Lagos is too cosmopolitan for Tinubu to clear, we have to agree.
The endsars saga will also work against him. He will not get votes from many Christian communities even within the Yoruba circle.

I expect Tinubu to win Lagos anyways, but the margin will not be huge if all things are equal.
I expect to see this figures

Tinubu: 50%
Obi: 40%
Others: 10%

Although, we Cannot totally overrule Peter obi winning Lagos If APC sleeps on it.
What’s your thought?

Ode... Is Buhari from Lagos? A Lagosian is contesting this time around. It would be different from all other elections

OsunOriginal:


Ode... Is Buhari from Lagos? A Lagosian is contesting this time around. It would be different from all other elections

Is Tinubu from Lagos?

Workch:
Is Tinubu from Lagos?

He is not, it is Obi that is from Lagos

OsunOriginal:


He is not, it is Obi that is from Lagos

Hes is not.
So wtf is your point?

Are you from Lagos ?

duality:


What exactly will happen on election day!

You want to rig?

What if the rigging is not successful, what will you do.

We know that LP is pushing for a free and fare election but APC AND PDP are not, because they want to rig. They've never talked about inec conducting a clean election.

shame on them

The mood of the nation now, shows that APC AND PDP will not win the election.

Wait for election day my foot.

You think people are joking with this election.

You go just get heart attack for wetin you no fit control.
I'm neither APC nor PDP but one thing I know is that Peter Obi is deceiving himself and his supporters,lobaton.

una too put hope for rigging, but be aware that it may not be business as usual this time. E go shock una.[quote author=dat9jaguy post=118702191]

Like I said no go dey believe your analysis o. The shocker awaiting you guys is still doing exercise in the gym. Las las everyone is entitled to their opinion but the day of reckoning is just around the corner. [/quotle]

dat9jaguy:



You go just get heart attack for wetin you no fit control.
I'm neither APC nor PDP but one thing I know is that Peter Obi is deceiving himself and his supporters,lobaton.

Tinubu has lost the election. Peace!

duality:


Tinubu has lost the election. Peace!

That is your problem. Peace!

Workch:
Lol

Your thought is highly welcomed but very far from reality

Obi should forget Lagos

Tinubu would definitely win in Lagos but it won't be massive. Most people are yet to get their PVCs but I can tell you for free that so many will be denied the PVCs which is what they've been doing over the years.

I believe that the major parties are ignoring the indifferent or undecided voters who have always ignored voting at previous elections. They hold the keys to numbers that dwarfs the active voters over the years. This will be a major deciding factor in the elections.

famouscargo4u:
Tinubu would definitely win in Lagos but it won't be massive. Most people are yet to get their PVCs but I can tell you for free that so many will be denied the PVCs which is what they've been doing over the years.

Obi will win Lagos with 65% others will share 35%

julaion:

Obi will win Lagos with 65% others will share 35%

This is a possibility. I agree with you.

julaion:

Obi will win Lagos with 65% others will share 35%

Obi can not win in Lagos but he will get his highest votes here.

N3TRAL:
Your assumption is that anyone who won't vote Tinubu will vote Peter Obi.

You are definitely oblivious of PDP's political structures in Lagos.

In 2015 it was PDP vs APC

In 2019 it was APC vs PDP

2023 it would be APC vs PDP splited between LP and NNPP.

Also , in 2015 and 2019 it wasn't a south westerner on the ballot. In 2023, it is a Yoruba Man that will be on the ballot.

PDP structures have collapsed in Lagos. The Igbos have departed the party to support their Labour Party. Some Yorubas have departed to APC.

However, a lot of Yorubas who always voted PDP in Lagos have remained there. PDP will do better than LP in many posh areas because there are elites who are financing PDP.

Funke Akindele , Davido, Banky W etc have always supported PDP for instance. They're still supporting PDP.

PDP will definitely lose most Igbo votes but will not lose any significant Yoruba vote. The worst that can happen to PDP is that its votes will be splited thereby giving APC a gap advantage.

APC will win Lagos with a wide margin even though the total votes they get will only be slightly higher than what they've always had.

If APC has above 50% like they've always had, they will win with a wide Margin because Atiku will definitely have his 25%.

Compare 2023 elections to Sanwo Olu's Governorship Elections when Igbo voters were supporting Agbaje and Ambode was their darling. That's a typical example of Yoruba electorates choosing a Yoruba on the Ballot not a splited decision between two Fulanis.

Are you on ground in Lagos or are you just writing this long epistle for fun?

Go around Lagos and interview people for their preferred candidate n 2023...

I am sure that if you do that you would not be giving yourself this futile hope...

You think Tinubu has not got an Intel on Lagos which has precipitated repeated campaign effort by his team aimed at avoiding humiliation in what is supposed to be his stronghold?