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2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome - Politics (11) - Nairaland

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Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Adminisher: 6:41pm On Dec 24, 2014
ziccoit:
SS/SE may not have a free day of rigging like 2011 where Buhari, I could call independent candidate , was mercilessly rigged out. This is a new era. The guy is now contesting under a party with structure so you people should expect a different outcome.

12million against 22million with massive rigging both South and North was commendable. PDP is loosing sleep because they know the red card is about to be drawn out.

Buhari was an outsider to Nigerian politics in 2011 and key members of the political class and military who organised the return to civil rule after Abacus were too scared of him. It takes a royal screw up by Jonathan to create this ripe condition for the general's return

2 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by searay(m): 7:12pm On Dec 24, 2014
[center]
tomakint:

Shake my hands bro!
Thank you brother, the pleasure is mine.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by LogicPower(m): 7:19pm On Dec 24, 2014
john6006:
Election cancelled....after two days of voting....typical june 12 result......
watch out....

1. Any good student of politics, law or history can easily educate you here on WHY the IBB junta was able to SUBVERT the democratic will of the people SO BLATANTLY that time, and WHY Jonathan, or any civilian president for that matter, CANNOT achieve that INGLORIOUS FIAT, even if he would wish to.

2. For instance, the 1993 June 12 presidential election, if you need to be told, was between Chief MKO Abiola of SDP and Bashiru Tofa of NRC; the IBB government that nullified the election was NOT one of the PARTICIPATING TEAMS, but was acting as a REFEREE.

3. Thus, what the NOTORIOUS IBB regime did was like a referee stopping a match in the last few seconds, when one of the two teams was CLEARLY WINNING, and disqualifying both teams and ordering a 'rematch' between two other teams, for no any convincing reasons.

4. On the other hand, the idea that a democratic president WHO PARTICIPATES in an election, and who is faced with an imminent defeat, can just wake up the next day and announce that he 'cancels' the election, is as ABSURD and NAIVE as thinking that a LOSING football team in a final cup competition can 'cancel' the match, declare itself winner, and try to retain the cup by force!

5. The worst a democratic government that loses election can do, if it wants to CLING to power SO DESPERATELY that it does NOT give a damn if the country is plunged into chaos, is to RIG the election and DARE THE PEOPLE!

1 Like

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by john6006: 7:24pm On Dec 24, 2014
[b]
LogicPower:


1. Any good student of politics, law or history can easily educate you here on WHY the IBB junta was able to SUBVERT the democratic will of the people SO BLATANTLY that time, and WHY Jonathan, or any civilian president for that matter, CANNOT achieve that INGLORIOUS FIAT, even if he would wish to.

2. For instance, the 1993 June 12 presidential election, if you need to be told, was between Chief MKO Abiola of SDP and Bashiru Tofa of NRC; the IBB government that nullified the election was NOT one of the PARTICIPATING TEAMS, but was acting as a REFEREE.

3. Thus, what the NOTORIOUS IBB regime did was like a referee stopping a match in the last few seconds, when one of the two teams was CLEARLY WINNING, and disqualifying both teams and ordering a 'rematch' between two other teams, for no any convincing reasons.

4. On the other hand, the idea that a democratic president WHO PARTICIPATES in an election, and who is faced with an imminent defeat, can just wake up the next day and announce that he 'cancels' the election, is as ABSURD and NAIVE as thinking that a LOSING football team in a final cup competition can 'cancel' the match, declare itself winner, and try to retain the cup by force!

5. The worst a democratic government that loses election can do if, it wants to CLING to power SO DESPERATELY that it does NOT give a damn if the country is plunged into chaos, is to RIG the election and DARE THE PEOPLE!
[/b]
This is what you will tell INEC when the time come .......
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by LogicPower(m): 7:25pm On Dec 24, 2014
john6006:
[/b][b]This is what you will tell INEC when the time come ......

??
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 7:28pm On Dec 24, 2014
Adminisher:


Buhari was an outsider to Nigerian politics in 2011 and key members of the political class and military who organised the return to civil rule after Abacus were too scared of him. It takes a royal screw up by Jonathan to create this ripe condition for the general's return

Ripe condition ko unripe mango ni.Internet noise do not win elections. Buhari is perpetually unelectable, his incediary comments over the years has made him so.

1 Like

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 7:30pm On Dec 24, 2014
tbaba1234:


Edo is not like bayelsa or akwa ibom. It will be tight. The only reason, I say tight is because oshiomole's second term has not been good.

You muslims in Edo are bloody minorities. You would not be able to secure more than 20% for your weeping General

1 Like 1 Share

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Caseless: 7:31pm On Dec 24, 2014
rufdyamond:
...
Interesting with aliyu(niger)...suswam and mark(benue)....nna nah wah oooo....see do u really tink all dose tins u guys put in a box standin under the sun is what counts...plsssss let's be realistic here...well enuf said we ve 100days or more to the results..I will PM u den....
ALIYU cant do anything. His candidate for govnorship might also not win. Jst pm me then.

1 Like

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Caseless: 7:35pm On Dec 24, 2014
rufdyamond:

Am nt disputin lagos state...so read again and understand b4 yur defective eyes makes u tink pple re decieving themselves...sure I got highon good tins but be sure to get high on some cheap stiffs wen yur GMB is floored.... after all nah boko haram him go resort to ..what else...we don see 99 so 100 from u guys nah moimoi....one certain tin is no matter who rules we (Nigerians) will eat well and life will be good takin some expensive highness ...all I don't want is force and voilence and pressure cos he lost and he will loose again....mark my words...we have less or 100days to go
now i knw i shldnt have started this discussion with u; u ar jst like the rest.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 7:39pm On Dec 24, 2014
Caseless:
now i knw i shldnt have started this discussion with u; u ar jst like the rest.
Same with me here cos u re no different...will PM u den...
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by PassingShot(m): 7:41pm On Dec 24, 2014
LogicPower:


??

You even tried taking your time to educate people like him.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by PassingShot(m): 7:45pm On Dec 24, 2014
chukwudi44:


You muslims in Edo are bloody minorities. You would not be able to secure more than 20% for your weeping General

By your warped logic, Christians in core nothern states cannot secure 20% votes for GEJ as well.

This is the same ethnic and religious card that has brought GEJ this poo he's currently in.

4 Likes 1 Share

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by cashkid: 8:02pm On Dec 24, 2014
scribble:



Lagos Ibadan Expressway is being expanded, rehabilitated and reconstructed by an Ijaw man u bigot

u are the most foolish ever seen,wen last did u pass through that place, hw many kilometres have they expanded and done?Anybody that read this ur useless post will think they have done all u have said here.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by sufido123: 8:05pm On Dec 24, 2014
Listen to El Rufai, he knows what he is talking about:

1 Like

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 8:22pm On Dec 24, 2014
Kenai:
Laugh wan tear my belle o!

Buhari having 200,000+ votes in Anambra?
Chai! Sorry, but Buhari will not have up to 8,000 votes in Anambra.

And not just that, even "Invalid" will score more votes than Buhari in the East.
and u are sitting in ur house sayin dis rubbish....what are the steps u r taking to mak sure buhari wont c up to dat vote?
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 8:27pm On Dec 24, 2014
chukwudi44:
Buhari cannot even get up to 25% in Edo let alone winning the state. Buhari cannot win nassarawa and taraba state either.Buhari would not get up to 10% in any state of the se.Fayose is in complete control of ekitistate. Besides APC has repeatedly insulted ekiti voters after their last defeat, expect payback.

Mark my words, none of the candidates will secure up to 60% of the votes in Lagos and kadunna states. The cosmopolitan and religious make up of this states would make that impossible
am in ekiti,i will take nd eat anythin fashola present,but come on 14 feb,sai buhari all d way

3 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 8:29pm On Dec 24, 2014
PassingShot:


Honestly, do you think Yorubas will abandon Osinbajo, Tinubu, Fashola, Ajimobi, Amosun and even OBJ this time for GEJ who sidelined them for 6 years?

FYI, I am not a member of any political party but it will be pure naivety to think GEJ will win any state in SW in 2015. Things have completely changed from what they were in 2011. Then GEJ had sympathy of the people and CPC had no structure in the SW as it was ACN that had the structure. It was Tinubu's sell-out of Buhari that made Jonathan to win in the SW then but he paid back with poor performance and marginalization of the region.

Tinubu has little or no influence over sw elections as the events in ondo and ekiti has clearly shown.I voted in Lagos during the last election and don't remember receiving instructions from Tinubu on whom to vote for
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 8:31pm On Dec 24, 2014
olassy239:
am in ekiti,i will take nd eat anythin fashola present,but come on 14 feb,sai buhari all d way

That was exactly what you people said before the last ekiti elections and we know how it all went
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 8:33pm On Dec 24, 2014
olassy239:
and u are sitting in ur house sayin dis rubbish....what are the steps u r taking to mak sure buhari wont c up to dat vote?

Northerners and yorubas in anambra are not up to that figure and 99.99% of igbos would not vote for Buhari
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Kenai: 8:33pm On Dec 24, 2014
olassy239:
and u are sitting in ur house sayin dis rubbish....what are the steps u r taking to mak sure buhari wont c up to dat vote?

I am a certified nwafor.
Dike bi n'ala.
Okorobia rijuru afo.
I know how the East will vote, i nugo?
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by scribble: 8:36pm On Dec 24, 2014
cashkid:


u are the most foolish ever seen,wen last did u pass through that place, hw many kilometres have they expanded and done?Anybody that read this ur useless post will think they have done all u have said here.

Ur father is the most foolish for birthing a didirin like u
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Oluloba(m): 8:36pm On Dec 24, 2014
Exactly...with facts and figures difficult to deny.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 8:36pm On Dec 24, 2014
PassingShot:


By your warped logic, Christians in core nothern states cannot secure 20% votes for GEJ as well.

This is the same ethnic and religious card that has brought GEJ this poo he's currently in.

GEJ would score above 40% in a core northern state like kadunna. He would also get high votes in Adamawa. There are much more Christians in the north than muslims in the se/ss

By February 15 2015 we will know between GEJ and Buhari who is in poo
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by LogicPower(m): 8:36pm On Dec 24, 2014
PassingShot:


By your warped logic, Christians in core nothern states cannot secure 20% votes for GEJ as well.

This is the same ethnic and religious card that has brought GEJ this poo he's currentlyin.

The part in bold is very true!

The clueless and his supporters HAVE OVERPLAYED the religious card and, like anything overplayed, it has started to REBOUND and BOOMERANG on them hard!

Besides, thousands of northern Christians in the NE and BM have seen CLEARLY how much he and his government CARE for the security of their lives and properties, and how much he CARES for THEIR VOTES!
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Kenai: 8:37pm On Dec 24, 2014
chukwudi44:


Northerners and yorubas in anambra are not up to that figure and 99.99% of igbos would not vote for Buhari

And even the Yorubas in the East are down with us.
They hate what we hate, and like what we like.
They'll never vote Buhari.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Nobody: 8:40pm On Dec 24, 2014
LogicPower:


The part in bold is very true!

The clueless and his supporters HAVE OVERPLAYED the religious card and, like anything overplayed, it has started to REBOUND and BOOMERANG on them hard!

Besides, thousands of northern Christians in the NE and BM have seen CLEARLY how much he and his government CARE for the security of their lives and properties, and how much he CARES for THEIR VOTES!

Christians in the north will never vote for an Islamic bigot who has threatened to impose sharia law in Nigeria. They know better than that
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by aletheia(m): 8:42pm On Dec 24, 2014
PassingShot:
This exercise is an attempt to picture how the next presidential election will be won and lost.

OP. You been try. But run your model again but with Jonathan winning in Lagos, Ekiti, Oyo, and Osun states which is a more accurate reflection of the reality than Buhari winning in all the SW states.
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by prof007: 8:43pm On Dec 24, 2014
simple fact is this.
GEJ would win this election and APC is just trying to create awareness for 2019 election and they are doing a good job
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by ziccoit: 8:51pm On Dec 24, 2014
Adminisher:


Buhari was an outsider to Nigerian politics in 2011 and key members of the political class and military who organised the return to civil rule after Abacus were too scared of him. It takes a royal screw up by Jonathan to create this ripe condition for the general's return
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by gbaskipro: 8:59pm On Dec 24, 2014
PassingShot:


So, in your imagination Jonathan will win in the NE? It's certain he cannot and same goes with the SW. The North Central he will, but Buhari will record a good showing there and win Kwara, Niger and Nassaraw.

I have been very conservative with Buhari's figures including his stronghold NW hence you don't see 90% win percentage even in his own state.

And I have assumed the reasonable maximum for GEJ in his stronghold of the SS with 90% of the votes in Bayelsa.

The fact is GEJ is gone come Feb. 2015

Clap for yourself....... Jonathan is gone because one supporter of APC comes and post statistics that he imagines.... Elections are more realistic than all these Nairaland trash.... Guy seems u don't know politriking... Let me just tell you what you should do.... Come Feb 14 go and vote and wait till Feb 15 or 16 and hear the result, if your preferred person wins congrats but if otherwise avoid violence because majority of Nigerians choose that
Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by Adminisher: 9:06pm On Dec 24, 2014
Ozin:
What a prediction skewed in favour of the dictator grin grin grin fact is SW,NE and NC is a battle ground for votes for both PDP and APC and no party is assured of any victory until after the 14th. SS and SE is definately for GEJ and NW for Buhari. There is also no way Tinubu can defeat the federal might,Bode george,Obanikoro ,Agbaje and the majority votes from SE & SS based in Lagos

It is annoying to read someone post that SW and NE are battleground states. This is being in denial to a very ridiculous degree.Jonathan has never won in those areas of his own merit. In 2011 we put a nonentity in Aso Rock because a cabal was bullying him and people like Obj, Tinubu and the elders of the PDP did not have a consensus for an immediate replacement. He was 'instructed' to agree to a single term and he gladly accepted. Prodded on by his more aggressive advisers and recipients of his patronage he reneged on the deal and now feels he actually has a political machinery and populist appeal. BIG JOKE. PDP actually owns the machinery that has now fallen apart since the crises that came up in 2013 and are still continuing.

2 Likes

Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by tbaba1234: 9:14pm On Dec 24, 2014
chukwudi44:


You muslims in Edo are bloody minorities. You would not be able to secure more than 20% for your weeping General



Who is talking religion here?? PDP has failed massively in Edo.

Edo is an APC state at the moment and very powerful, it is difficult to see how PDP wins..

It will be tight but from the feelers I get, buhari edges it.

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