Jhoanner:
Here I was thinking I was going to read an objective analysis. Write-up by OP shows he's nothing but an APC apologist

with the replies from the op, I get to understand that he is supporting Buhari, I hope this election will shock my politicians as it did to Jonathan in 2015

This OP is dreaming Atiku may not win the election but how do u think he will lose his own Adamawa not minding PMB wife is from dia. Is a big slap on him if PMB defeat him in his own state.

duwdu:


To be candid, I, too, see your point about PassingShot being rather generous with the overall votes haul for the PDP. However, much like PassingShot already alluded to, it's probably better to have icings on the cake with a better win than expected, than have the wining cake get served diminished in any way.

My own current hunch: The APC garners ~ 22 million votes; the PDP garners ~ 14 million votes.

But hey, what do I know?

........
P34c3
.....
...

Abeg wetin be P34c3? you fit dm me the answer

Corrinthians:
How about you did yours let's debate on it?

Maybe you didn't peruse my comments before rushing to reply!
Typical of a certain political party who want to defend their fellow crew members!
You can't be a judge in your case!
If you must make realistic stats and predictions,it must be made from a non-partisan fellow!
I only gave an opinion...hope you know the difference?

CilicMarin:


Abeg wetin be P34c3? you fit dm me the answer

That’s “PEACE”

Stanweezy:
This OP is dreaming Atiku may not win the election but how do u think he will lose his own Adamawa not minding PMB wife is from dia. Is a big slap on him if PMB defeat him in his own state.

PMB has always trunced Atiku there. Atiku is not loved at home and he will have done well to score 35% of the votes there.

PassingShot:

That’s “PEACE”

Oh! I see I have always wondered!

sogodihno:


why don't u do ur own analysis and let's see how Atiku will win. believe me the Op is being generous with figures, Atiku can't get up to what the Op predicted.

Pls, screenshot this till after election.

First,i only gave an opinion about the validity of the OP to make such stats and predictions cos it won't be credible based on his obvious affiliation!
Whether OP was generous with his stats or not doesn't take away the fact that he wont make a fair analysis!
Please next time try to comprehend a comment before hurriedly and hastily replying!

Joystark:


Okay, you win. Run along now.

Mtcheew

I salute the wisdom and intelligent qogent ( IQ) of these predictions. But I totally disagree with about 70% of your predictions to each of the geopolitical zones as far as corporate entity called Nigeria is concerned. To be factual with happenings, facts and figures and verifiable things in present Nigeria, if PMB / APC would win 2019 elections even with power of incumbency, vote buying and use of military with a slight margin that may not be up to 500,000 votes.

Firstly, PMB / APC and Atiku Abubakar both of them are from Northern region. These two aspirants would shared the votes from these geopolitical zones because they were both Northerners. Non of them can win 70% votes in all the 19 Northern states.

Secondly, SE / SS: These zones were strong hold of PDP even right from the time of OBJ, Yar' Adua as well as GEJ. So the zones is still the strong hold of PDP tomorrow. Forget about weather Akpabio, Orji Kalu, Ngige, Amechi comes from these zones. Akpabio and Orji Uzor Kalu joined APC because of various curruption charges hanging in there necks as a former governors so that EFCC would soft pedal on there curruption cases. SE SS knows that 2023 presidency promising them is not realistic. Ngige had contested in Anambra many times but he lost, it is not that Anambras don't like him to rule them as Governor but single factor that is working against Dr. Chris Ngige was that he belongs to APC political party. Remember Peter Obi is also a former governor and he performed wonderfully well it would also has a great impact on the election outcome. We should not forget that South East produced Vice President last during Sheu Shagari Administration. Are you saying IPOB would not have an influence on this coming election out come ?.So all these factors may not be in favour of PMB / APC.

Thirdly, SW is the only geopolitical zones that would votes according to there mind and conciense. What happened in Ekiti and Osun States during there gubernatorial elections is what can be called votes buying so it is not an election. I can bet you, if PDP is able to this year Presidental election those two Youruba south west states cases would be revisited. Now forget about Tinubu, Oshibajo , Fashola e.t.c. These guys can't determine Yoruba / SW votes and they know. Yoruba had been clamouring for restructuring of Nigeria since the 1993 annulment of Presidential election won by MKO Abiola. SW still calling for the restructuring even during the OBJ 8 years rule and that was why GEJ had to organised a conference then. I am stand to be corrected here, Yoruba is the most educated, exposed, enlightened geopolitical zones in Nigeria and they so must believe in structuring of Nigeria but they know it is the only way multi faceted problems confronting Nigeria as a Nation can be solved. So since Atiku Abubakar has also been clamouring for restructuring of Nigeria alone, Yoruba and SW zone would votes for him at least 65%. These 3 states would never dance to Tinubu, Oshibajo, Fashola e.t.c. tones, Yorubas would collect there money an votes for the party of there choice.

Generally, I have been asking people this question but up till now, nobody was able to answer me. The question is " Did PMB / APC honestly and actually deserve for a second term ?. PMB is the worts President Nigeria had ever produced. Look at recently Rotimi Amechi video recording even Tinubu that bank rolled about 50% PMB election in 2015 knows that PMB is not performing at all and many Nigerians had seen it clearly with different things that had happened in Nigeria within the last 4 years. I can tell you, that if Nigerians was asked to rates GEJ & BUHARI administration, PMB can not score 40%. I am stand to be corrected, the way a 10 years old boy from Southwest Yoruba extraction reason and see things logically would be different from that of a 40years old northerner because of our educational background, exposure e.t.c.

Finally, US government was saying just yesterday that this 2019 Presidential election results may be declared in conclusive based on the premises that once APC / PMB sees some results declare which is not in APC favour, then they would declared it in conclusive election. Nigerians would reacted which may cause problems and International communities would never Nigeria to go into another civil war. So if care is not taking, APC / PMB may be disgrace out of that sit. Because if he do anyhow, he would be treated anyhow.

PassingShot:
South South Zone
This is a zone which many APC supporters and neutral political watchers believe APC has made a big in-road into, to the extent that many are predicting a win for PMB in Akwa-Ibom and a very good showing in Rivers and Delta. I personally see PMB winning Edo; reason being that it's the home state of APC's Chairman; APC won there in 2016 governorship election (a recession time); and APC did very well there in 2015 election despite intimidation by the military of PDP then.

Because of political alignment which saw Akpabio decamp to APC with his huge followership, APC can actually win Akwa Ibom but I have tempered my expectation with caution by predicting only 40% of the votes there for APC. With Akpabio in Akwa Ibom, Great Ogboru and Ayiri Emami in Delta, Rotimi Amechi, Tonye Cole and Nsima Ekere and other political heavy weigths on the side of APC in Akwa Ibom, it's only logical to expect APC score nothing less than 30% of the votes in this region; especially with almost zero chance of "writing result under special condition" in 2019.

Verdict - PDP to win the zone with no more than 65% of the total votes cast here.


South West Zone
Face the fact, if there is any region in Nigeria which doesn't largely vote based on religion and ethnicity, it is the SW zone of the country. If this wasn't true, GEJ/PDP would not have gotten 43% of the votes there with just about 587,000 vote difference in 2015, despite APC having Osinbajo on the ticket. But with major infrastructural projects (road, rail, power project) and N-Power plus Trader/Market Moni going on in the SW region; coupled with the facts that there is no shortage of political heavyweights from the region in APC; plus the facts that the region's Obas largely support PMB's 2nd term, PDP will have performed well to match their 2015 outing in SW. VP Osinbajo is from the zone (Ogun state) and APC recently won in Ekiti and Osun as well. Irrespective of what anyone might think, it's highly unthinkable for SW to abandon Osinbajo for a promise of SGF position in a PDP government. Forget that Obasanjo and Afenifere are supporting Atiku, these elements are only revered outside the SW.

It's important to point out that the performance of PDP in Osun was not really taken into consideration for the fact that electorate in that election, electorate wanted to punish APC/Aregbesola for not paying workers salaries for many months (same we saw in Ekiti as well). I personally know people who are APC but voted for Adeleke because of the salary issue. So, I do not see PDP doing as well as they did in that governorship election of 2018. Notwithstanding, I have largely left the prediction to about the same outcome of 2015 with just a flip of Ekiti to APC since the party won the governorship election there as recent as three months ago.

Verdict - APC wins SW by about 60% of total votes cast.

hey bros,your analysis of SW is deeply flawed.
sorry,no way is any party winning SW by 60% talkless of a landslide in the region.
I'm from osun state,and I live in Ondo state,and I spent a lot of my childhood in Lagos.
I honestly think PDP win win Ondo state from what I'm seeing on ground, therefore an Atiku victory will not be a surprise.
in osun state, its going to be really very close,just like the governorship election.
for one, the salary situation is yet to to be settled! and a lot of people still remember what happen in the rerun..
for now,there's nobody who can say confidently which party will osun state.
I expect APC to win In Oshogbo and maybe Iwo too.but PDP will win in ife and ede,while the ijesha axis is 50/50 because they are unpredictable voters..
Then Ekiti has the smallest number of registered voters in SW, the margin of victory is not going to be that much in the state, and to be realistic both parties will contest for every vote..

realistically ,APC highest margin of winning maybe in Oyo state..maybe Ogun state too.
no party is winning SW by a landslide talkless of 60%.

the ops analysis lacks indepth analytical skills, 2015 is a never a yard stick in this election, if anything it has demystified that " buhari and sai baba" syndrome...many northerners are awake to the fact that buhari is not a god but a confused, empty little man and all this will play out in this election

dont forget this is no more the south vs the north, were an average northerner believes a southerner shouldn't govern, now its all from thier region and they are both powerful fulanis and this means both the sultanate ant the Emirates will be at best apolitical

in 2015 i predicted a buhari win and even won 50k bet on it, but this time the only way i see buhari win is by outright and broad daylight robbery.

let me tell u something even with the whole federal might, money and police pdp still did marvelous in ekiti and osun which infact many people believe pdp won.

now to my prediction, this is atikus election to lose, states like kano will be highly divided with cult like kwankwasiya movement, in sokoto with the incumbent tambuwal as governor and seeking reelection its not going to be bussiness as usual in bauchi with APC loosing dogara and co they must have lost ground, in NC taraba is for pdp with danjuma and the governor especially now that mama taraba is no more in APC, plateau state i believe even the governorship will go to PDP with gen useni as its candidate lalong is a gonner and that will show in the presidential election, kogi, benue ofcourse will be divided.

in sw, pdp will sure do well in states like lagos, oyo, osun , ekiti, ondo even ogun, surely they will do better than 2015,

in NE gombe with dankwanbo is definetly pdp, then jigawa with lamido is swing state, i dont believe atiku will lose Adamawa if u dont know even though atiku is in PDP her daughter is a commissioner in the state

SS and SE..even though buhari will get appreciable buharis but it will be insignificant and less than atikus in road in NE, NW and NC, unlike some permutations akwa ibom is all pdp and ebonyi is pdp full time, i dont know were the idea of umahi supporting buhari comes from the last time he didnt even allow them use the stadium for campaigns, and anambra is surely pdp no matter obianos gimmicks, u think the removal of the anambra speaker is in vain? obiano is the target

i strongly predict an atiku presidency and i havnt taken in the Consideration obasanjos factor who who every body that has become president in nigeria since the democracy he has endorsed while the ones without his endorsement fails.

Seen

Great analysis.

More grease to your elbow with your fake prediction. Was almost taking you serious till I saw all your previous topic. *Staunch APC supporter identified.

olril17:

hey bros,your analysis of SW is deeply flawed.
sorry,no way is any party winning SW by 60% talkless of a landslide in the region.
I'm from osun state,and I live in Ondo state,and I spent a lot of my childhood in Lagos.
I honestly think PDP win win Ondo state from what I'm seeing on ground, therefore an Atiku victory will not be a surprise.
in osun state, its going to be really very close,just like the governorship election.
for one, the salary situation is yet to to be settled! and a lot of people still remember what happen in the rerun..
for now,there's nobody who can say confidently which party will osun state.
I expect APC to win In Oshogbo and maybe Iwo too.but PDP will win in ife and ede,while the ijesha axis is 50/50 because they are unpredictable voters..
Then Ekiti has the smallest number of registered voters in SW, the margin of victory is not going to be that much in the state, and to be realistic both parties will contest for every vote..

realistically ,APC highest margin of winning maybe in Oyo state..maybe Ogun state too.
no party is winning SW by a landslide talkless of 60%.

It seems you don’t have a grasp of the word “landslide”.
The worst that can happen is to split SW at 50/50 between both parties. Do you think PDP will get that much? Doing that won’t even help PDP anyway.

I am from Oyo State and I know the sentiments there.

Buterflyle0:


Summary he predicted GEJ would lose despite having power of incumbency and he did

It's was obvious GEJ will lose when all northerners ganged up against him, even PDP national chairman then, we are in 2019, Atiku is from north not south, in Northwest Kano, Kaduna, Zamfara even Kastina will surprise you guys, no doubt Buhari will win in northwest but not like 2015, Atiku will grab more than 30% votes from northwest, Atiku will win northeast with 53%, Atiku will win north central, Southeast, and southsouth, Buhari will win Southwest, but Atiku will grab more than 45% votes from west if the election is free and fair.

CilicMarin:
You are too Generous with Figures accredited to Atiku..

Atiku Cannot get up to 8 Million Votes in this Election..

Screenshot this comment..

Which state will give Atiku 1 Million Votes? Which State will Atiku get up to 500000 votes in North West and North East?

You are probably using an incumbent Jonathan in 2015 to determine an opposition PDP without Money, State apparatus, and integrity defecient in 2019.

I am out of this thread with annoyance.

Be fooling your self...
Only Galadima can deliver 3m vote
Kwankwaso can deliver 3m vote
Atiku can deliver 3m vote
Across the north.
With there followers...not to talk of supporters.

Go and check there records.

openmine:

Maybe you didn't peruse my comments before rushing to reply!
Typical of a certain political party who want to defend their fellow crew members!
You can't be a judge in your case!
If you must make realistic stats and predictions,it must be made from a non-partisan fellow!
I only gave an opinion...hope you know the difference?

Blablabla.

Go ahead and write the trash you want to write. Be the judge of your trash, we don't mind.

Typical nonsense from a brain that has been totally looted by the unrepentant thief called Atiku.

He will lose the election regardless of the volume of tears you shed. Get that into your head kiddo.

post=74720057:

It's was obvious GEJ will lose when all northerners ganged up against him, even PDP national chairman then, we are in 2019, Atiku is from north not south, in Northwest Kano, Kaduna, Zamfara even Kastina will surprise you guys, no doubt Buhari will win in northwest but not like 2015, Atiku will grab more than 30% votes from northwest, Atiku will win northeast with 53%, Atiku will win north central, Southeast, and southsouth, Buhari will win Southwest, but Atiku will grab more than 45% votes from west if the election is free and fair.

Dream on

Passing shot,you are vey generous oooo,APC winning ogun state by only 65%

Katsina only 70%

Buterflyle0:


Nigeria is bigger than nairaland. Don't be deceived by the sentiments you see here on nairaland. A lot of the youths here perhaps yourself inclusive lack the ability to think straight which is why you are led by your hormone ravaged emotions.

Beyond Nairaland are more mentally matured people who actually hold majority of the votes.

His analysis was well given and was not influenced by his emotions or political leaning which was why he was very generous to Atiku

Hormone-ravaged emotions you say. A lot of you think you have something upstairs but on close examination, you find an empty brain. Look, I'm neither a Buhari nor Atiku sympathiser. All I want is a thoroughly in-depth analysis based on rigorous research. Not mere speculative jargon.

Mandeyy:
Thanks, my bro. You are the only person that got the analysis correct. Buhari can only win by rigging. Otherwise, he can never win! I see a lot of electorates who voted for him in 2015 voting for Atiku, cos of poverty, bloodshed and poor economy. The scenario of 2015 is not the same as that of the present time. He and his cabal know he can never win this election. Even this OP knows this.

Then last time I went home, everybody was weeping and complaining, to Make matters worse, the governor didn't pay salary in December, he's owing over 15 months, anybody who votes APC in my town is going to be stoned.

ASUU and ASUP are on strike, if the issue is not resolved, it will add to his woes

sogodihno:


what is not objective there? the guy predicted the same thing in 2014 and it was so. madam come up with ur own analysis and let's see how Atiku will win.

You see. That's where you miss the point. You guys are so blind by your bias that you would rather die than think/see. There was no where in my statement I mentioned being an Atiku apologist or symphatizer. Take note. My disapproval of one is not an endorsement of another.

AAA593:
God has said yes to the expectations of Nigerians. APC is too small to cancel God's plans. The rigging plan will fail. There Will be confusion in APC camp that day. They will not cooperate. Watch out

Why are you involving God in all of this?

The process that brought out Atiku as presidential candidate of PDP, was it inspired by God?

Please leave God out of this, let the better candidate win.

olril17:

hey bros,your analysis of SW is deeply flawed.
sorry,no way is any party winning SW by 60% talkless of a landslide in the region.
I'm from osun state,and I live in Ondo state,and I spent a lot of my childhood in Lagos.
I honestly think PDP win win Ondo state from what I'm seeing on ground, therefore an Atiku victory will not be a surprise.
in osun state, its going to be really very close,just like the governorship election.
for one, the salary situation is yet to to be settled! and a lot of people still remember what happen in the rerun..
for now,there's nobody who can say confidently which party will osun state.
I expect APC to win In Oshogbo and maybe Iwo too.but PDP will win in ife and ede,while the ijesha axis is 50/50 because they are unpredictable voters..
Then Ekiti has the smallest number of registered voters in SW, the margin of victory is not going to be that much in the state, and to be realistic both parties will contest for every vote..

realistically ,APC highest margin of winning maybe in Oyo state..maybe Ogun state too.
no party is winning SW by a landslide talkless of 60%.

You are wrong. As it stands, PDP barely exist in Ondo state. APC is the party in power with really no opposition to contend with. Atiku stands absolutely no chance in the state.

In Osun, Buhari will win easily. Ijesha people are mostly APC. They voted against Aregbesola in the last election and not really for PDP. APC also won one of the Ife local governments in the last election. The other Ife lags voted for Omisore. Omisore is now fully in APC, Atiku stand no chance there. Overall, Buhari wins Osun.
Ekiti will be the easiest walkover for Buhari. PDP is finished in that state. Fayemi is currently doing well while Fayose and Olujimi are fighting dirty. Fayose is even campaigning against Olujimi as we speak. I really don’t see PDP getting up to 100k votes in the state.

Lagos will be close as always but APC will win as usual. In Ogun, PDP only exist in Ogun east. Even at that, APC will win the presidential election in Ogun east because of Osinbajo. PDP won Ogun east the last time out because Buruji and Adebutu were on the ballot and the elections were held same day. With Buruji and Adebutu not on the ballot on February 16, it’s an easy win for APC.

Without much ado about nothing,I think the probability of PDP sailing through or snatching back the prime seat of Aso Rock is slim.Even the REAL Nigerians do not pray they come back.

Jhoanner:


Hormone-ravaged emotions you say. A lot of you think you have something upstairs but on close examination, you find an empty brain. Look, I'm neither a Buhari nor Atiku sympathiser. All I want is a thoroughly in-depth analysis based on rigorous research. Not mere speculative jargon.

Yes I repeat, hormone ravaged emotions. He cannot be more in depth than he has been.

Atiku does not have the followership buhari enjoys. Let that sink in!

There is no way Atiku can defeat Buhari. The only way that can happen is if buhari dies today and so does Osinbajo or if PDP were to deploy their hacking method which was part of their Dubai strategy if they had gotten PMB to sign the electronic transmission angle which they dubiously snuck in with other things for the electoral act.

Since all that has failed, they have now resorted to the WE ARE ALL CORRUPT INCLUDING BUHARI agenda and the fake news arsenal .

However, the more they do this, the more they lose key members to APC

Corrinthians:
Blablabla.

Go ahead and write the trash you want to write. Be the judge of your trash, we don't mind.

Typical nonsense from a brain that has been totally looted by the unrepentant thief called Atiku.

He will lose the election regardless of the volume of tears you shed. Get that into your head kiddo.

I refuse to be embroiled in a fruitless argument with a benighted zombie who gets shaken by a simplified comment!
So because i raised an obvious flaw in your fellow zombie's post now transforms me into a PDP supporter?
Go take your frustration else where....Am not the one responsible for your lack of discernment and obvious asininity!

PassingShot:

It seems you don’t have a grasp of the word “landslide”.
The worst that can happen is to split SW at 50/50 between both parties. Do you think PDP will get that much? Doing that won’t even help PDP anyway.

I am from Oyo State and I know the sentiments there.

my point is that based on what I have analysed from the SW states I know very much,like osun,Ekiti, Lagos and Ondo states.
based on the reality in these states, APC win likely win SW, but not by 60% as you proclaimed.
I expect PDP to get about the same number or votes or even slightly higher than 2015.
and even in your Oyo state where I expect APC to get the highest margin of winning,PDP will still get a high number of votes.
sorry, its unrealistic of you to claim one party will win SW by up to 60%, its just not possible.

Guy you're absolutely spot on with your analysis.... ��

Olumeme:


Then last time I went home, everybody was weeping and complaining, to Make matters worse, the governor didn't pay salary in December, he's owing over 15 months, anybody who votes APC in my town is going to be stoned.

ASUU and ASUP are on strike, if the issue is not resolved, it will add to his woes

Where is your home?

How many voters are in support of ASUUs shenanigans and make it a deciding factor,when it is not a new phenomenon?

How realistic would it be for voters to expect the current government to fulfill all agreements that predated it, with ASUU,