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Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (5967) - Nairaland

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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 10:02pm On Sep 07, 2020
wink cheesy grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 10:07pm On Sep 07, 2020
nna777:


I want to believe you are talking in terms of the drop in EPS. It was expected. Access was on the news sometimes this year for 2 issues it had.

Access is getting it right. By the time those who are waiting for it to be right enter, it will be trading in double digits as standard price.

This is not a buy recommendation.

Wise fellow !! wink cheesy grin

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by meine: 10:10pm On Sep 07, 2020
onegentleguy:

And someone was arguing blindly.
Maybe u and nna777 should help @meine with a bit of common sense. ...just a bit !! wink cheesy grin
Regards
Kid how old are you? Didn't you see I deliberately ignored you since yesterday in order not to derail the thread? Why mention my name again? Since what I said keeps giving you sleepless nights. Let me torture you more.

Your analogy of swapping UBA and ACCESS based on dividends initially without considering transfer fees etc is naive at best. I smile whenever I see You using abbreviations like MMM,GIN,FOV,FAV, GCON, to bamboozle people and sound intelligent . I can also see you clearly depend on this thread to get some atom of self esteem and ego boosting as you don't seem to have anything serious working for you outside there.

I also repeat again that you are same as CHARLESDSNIPER , that moniker was created by you to fight your dirty battles , rub your ego and attack some other members under the cover of darkness. You are some bloody coward and You sure have serious EGO issues even though you seem to be talented.

19 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Intendy: 10:31pm On Sep 07, 2020
Stocks with new 52 week highs
Upl #1.70k
Fcmb #2.26k
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 10:50pm On Sep 07, 2020
Intendy:
Stocks with new 52 week highs

Upl #1.70k

Fcmb #2.26k

UPL doing its thing !! wink cheesy grin
Already up by near 85% since we noticed the dude @ 92k.
As for the doubters, well...
I like it when some folks give in to doubts after spotting a good asset. ...oftentimes, it helps us to quietly but strategically accumulate our 2 afolabi unit @ a good discount. wink cheesy grin

Disclosure: I have already exited my small stake here and also advised those who bought under our guidance to either do same, or hold... in line with their investment strategy and goals.

While the stock could still rise a bit more, it could also drop in price and perhaps hover around the the N1.3-1.5 price region.
Fundamentally, coy still remains underpriced.

Selah

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by CashDiMkpa: 10:52pm On Sep 07, 2020
Q2' 2020 interim dividends have now been declared in full and payment is being awaited. Its not over yet though. A few companies declare interim dividend when releasing their Q3 reports so more is likely to be announced next month. These include

- Nestle
- Seplat
- Nigerian Breweries
- Total (sometimes)
- Okomu Oil (Sometimes)

NB and Total may skip this year but the other 3 may still declare.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 11:02pm On Sep 07, 2020
^
^^
^^^
grin grin grin

Sleepless night ke? ...just imagine. wink cheesy grin
Small dude meine !! ...the inane half-baked Australopithecus africanus !!
What a world we live in. wink cheesy grin

It is well.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by dinyelutochukwu: 11:17pm On Sep 07, 2020
onegentleguy:
^
^^
^^^
grin grin grin

Sleepless night ke? ...just imagine. wink cheesy grin
Small dude meine !! ...the inane half-baked Australopithecus africanus !! wink cheesy grin

It is well.
OGG, kindly sheath your sword.
Nobody wins when the family feuds.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 11:24pm On Sep 07, 2020
dinyelutochukwu:

OGG, kindly sheath your sword.
Nobody wins when the family feuds.

Ok dear.
...Let me just forgive him because of u and other good fellows here. wink cheesy grin

Regards

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by meine: 11:25pm On Sep 07, 2020
onegentleguy:
^

Sleepless night ke? ...just imagine. wink cheesy grin
Small dude meine !! ...the inane half-baked Australopithecus africanus !! wink cheesy grin
It is well.
Sorry my dear. The matter must have really gotten to you, because I left it days ago. Next time don't send subtle insults if you are not ready to receive same. Go and look for more people to help you massage your bruised ego. grin

14 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 11:38pm On Sep 07, 2020
KINGs...

How do you guys do it... How do you guys settle for 0.50 kobo profit... How dose it feels holding a position as long as almost forever... The dividend at the end of the day, is it worth it... The fact that over 80% of our home based institutions are jokes, it somewhat baffles me that people still majorly buy this 0.90 kobo in earning and #10 loss stocks... Do you put in major funds or what... Do you bank on tampered market caps, earning reports or what

I must give it to you guys... You all are SPECIAL!
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by IYGEAL(m): 11:50pm On Sep 07, 2020
BIGBANG007:
KINGs...

How do you guys do it... How do you guys settle for 0.50 kobo profit... How dose it feels holding a position as long as almost forever... The dividend at the end of the day, is it worth it... The fact that over 80% of our home based institutions are jokes, it somewhat baffles me that people still majorly buy this 0.90 kobo in earning and #10 loss stocks... Do you put in major funds or what... Do you bank on tampered market caps, earning reports or what

I must give it to you guys... You all are SPECIAL!

50kobo profit can turn into hundreds of thousands, millions even; it depends on units. This is a game of numbers bro.

7 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by S007: 3:42am On Sep 08, 2020
BIGBANG007:
KINGs...

How do you guys do it... How do you guys settle for 0.50 kobo profit... How dose it feels holding a position as long as almost forever... The dividend at the end of the day, is it worth it... The fact that over 80% of our home based institutions are jokes, it somewhat baffles me that people still majorly buy this 0.90 kobo in earning and #10 loss stocks... Do you put in major funds or what... Do you bank on tampered market caps, earning reports or what

I must give it to you guys... You all are SPECIAL!

If you know how much money people are making in this same market......... cheesy

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 6:28am On Sep 08, 2020
veecovee:


... you have switched to bear info.

I suspect you're now on cash grin grin grin

The message is for international portfolio investors on this thread. It is for them to trade over there (and anywhere) else with caution.

On NSE front, there could be a possibility of a contagion effect. Our market is already low though.

Are you one of us? grin grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ThePropertyGuy: 6:38am On Sep 08, 2020
You both have taken this too far and is now personal.
No personal attacks, tolerate divergent views and we’ll all be fine.

meine:
Kid how old are you? Didn't you see I deliberately ignored you since yesterday in order not to derail the thread? Why mention my name again? Since what I said keeps giving you sleepless nights. Let me torture you more.

Your analogy of swapping UBA and ACCESS based on dividends initially without considering transfer fees etc is naive at best. I smile whenever I see You using abbreviations like MMM,GIN,FOV,FAV, GCON, to bamboozle people and sound intelligent . I can also see you clearly depend on this thread to get some atom of self esteem and ego boosting as you don't seem to have anything serious working for you outside there.

I also repeat again that you are same as CHARLESDSNIPER , that moniker was created by you to fight your dirty battles , rub your ego and attack some other members under the cover of darkness. You are some bloody coward and You sure have serious EGO issues even though you seem to be talented.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by RabbiDoracle: 6:39am On Sep 08, 2020
onegentleguy:



Another wise fellow.
After all the acquisitions(including the recent expansion to increase their African footprint) and the setbacks which naturally affected their NIM(lower interest income in view), the bank(access) still made that much NPM and dolled out that much cash(div declaration). ...this was at the back of a not-too-good Q1, 2020 report oo.

Contrarily, UBA after delivering a fantastic result in Q1, decided to prioritize their expense line in Q2 ahead of working for the common good of the shareholders. ...which also bore the lower cash declaration.
Moving from a great Q1(the best performing amongst the 1st tier banking coys then) to the worst performing in Q2(also among the 1st tiers) is a red-flag.
Its also the only 1st tier bank that declared less of a dividend than previous yr guidance.
While it(UBA) remains undervalued @ the current mkt price(see my past guidance), there are genuine reasons to want to hold a little more of ACCESS than it.
It's not just about whether the latter might distribute more div to holders by YE 2020. ...a shrewd investor looks beyond that. He knows that real return(reward in view) is measured not just by the possibility of a cash flow accrual, but by the feasible QUALITY of an asset at any given time !!

The point is; Both are good, but which is better? Clearly ACCESS... hence the advise to align more in it ahead of UBA.(portfolio weighting in view)

And some dude who's yet to learn even the smallest details on FA was arguing blindly.
Maybe u and nna777 should help @meine with a bit of common sense. ...just a bit !! wink cheesy grin

If we begin to analyse the pros and cons in the 2 coys FP, some persons eyes go clear. shocked shocked
Maybe then, they'll understand and appreciate the reason for that advise on portfolio weighting.

For the records; I also hold UBA. ...but its totally logical to hold more ACCESS than it for now.

Regards

Bro, are you sure Access is better?

I looked at the result to see the source of disagreement.

In my own opinion, Access had a decline in Net interest income before (and after) impairment charges. UBA had an increase (before and after) in the same line item. This is the CORE function of a bank. Spending on acquisitions will not affect that line item. UBA is better based on this.

While Access had flat PAT, UBA had a considerable decline in PAT. The reason for UBA PAT decline can be attributed to increasing other expenses (covid donations and one contracts expense line). Access will be favourable based on this.

The herds will sell UBA because the herds look at PAT. Hence UBA seeing price decline while Access rising.

However one should focus more on the core function of the bank (net interest income).

My 2 kobo.

11 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by TLAX: 8:28am On Sep 08, 2020

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by TLAX: 8:30am On Sep 08, 2020

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by TLAX: 8:35am On Sep 08, 2020
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To obtain the dial-in details, kindly pre-register for the call HERE.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by TLAX: 8:42am On Sep 08, 2020

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 8:52am On Sep 08, 2020
onegentleguy:


UPL doing its thing !! wink cheesy grin
Already up by near 85% since we noticed the dude @ 92k.

As for the doubters, well...
I like it when some folks give in to doubts after spotting a good asset. ...oftentimes, it helps us to quietly but strategically accumulate our 2 afolabi unit @ a good discount. wink cheesy grin

Disclosure: I have already exited my small stake here and also advised those who bought under our guidance to either do same, or hold... in line with their investment strategy and goals.

While the stock could still rise a bit more, it could also drop in price and perhaps hover around the the N1.3-1.5 price region.
Fundamentally, coy still remains underpriced.

Selah

onegentleguy you no try at all, when you discovered this particular stock, you spoke in parables. Even many people tried to decode your write up, still you failed to mention the stock. You should know you have followers who love and rely on your analysis for enlightenment. Is true you face criticism often times, but know that no living creature will be loved by everyone. Do not be discouraged but see your time and expertise as rendering community service.

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megamart247(m): 9:51am On Sep 08, 2020
CashDiMkpa:
Q2' 2020 interim dividends have now been declared in full and payment is being awaited. Its not over yet though. A few companies declare interim dividend when releasing their Q3 reports so more is likely to be announced next month. These include

- Nestle
- Seplat
- Nigerian Breweries
- Total (sometimes)
- Okomu Oil (Sometimes)

NB and Total may skip this year but the other 3 may still declare.

Guinness management should better beg Nigerian Breweries for bailout if not delistment is knocking on their door.

Their share has lost over 95% in value from 2013 to 2020. It dropped from N300 to N13 while their market cap depleted from N450B down to a paltry N30B

By the time you deduct their N23B debt you will see they are now a carcass.

Note: The competitive environment has swallowed both Guinness and international Brewery.

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by thesilentone(m): 10:01am On Sep 08, 2020
megamart247:


Guinness management should better beg Nigerian Breweries for bailout if not delistment is knocking on their door.

Their share has lost over 95% in value from 2013 to 2020. It dropped from N300 to N13 while their market cap depleted from N450B down to a paltry N30B

By the time you deduct their N23B debt you will see they are now a carcass.

Note: The competitive environment has swallowed both Guinness and international Brewery.

How can you make such an 'outlandish' statement when I have read here that the share price is heading to the moon once the 'weak' investors have been shaken out.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megamart247(m): 10:51am On Sep 08, 2020
thesilentone:


How can you make such an 'outlandish' statement when I have read here that the share price is heading to the moon once the 'weak' investors have been shaken out.

The shake out they have been doing for past 7ys. Incase you don't know Guiness Nig took a high interest loan of $95m loan from the parents coy Diegeo in 2016 and have been servicing it at the expense of their minority shareholders.

As it stands now Nigerian Breweries at N50 is better than Guinness at N10
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 11:01am On Sep 08, 2020
onegentleguy:


3k drop in interim divided compared to previous yr distribution.
Looking at the report, we might as well pass some of the blame on covid-19 !! Apparently, the bank had to make donations in that line as part of its CSR.
That donation of over N4.7B was indeed one of the key contributors to the higher expense line(other OPEX in view) ...the other was the surge in remittance for contract services by over N4.8B YoY.
Those 2, together with the mark-up on impaired assets and higher admin expense, explains the ~21.7% drop in NET MARGIN despite increased NII and NFCI.
Good that NIM retains a positive track though.

Drawback? Yes, but earnings trajectory remains stable.

UBA still remains UNDERVALUED at the current mkt price.

Selah
onegentleguy:



Another wise fellow.
After all the acquisitions(including the recent expansion to increase their African footprint) and the setbacks which naturally affected their NIM(lower interest income in view), the bank(access) still made that much NPM and dolled out that much cash(div declaration). ...this was at the back of a not-too-good Q1, 2020 report oo.

Contrarily, UBA after delivering a fantastic result in Q1, decided to prioritize their expense line in Q2 ahead of working for the common good of the shareholders. ...which also bore the lower cash declaration.
Moving from a great Q1(the best performing amongst the 1st tier banking coys then) to the worst performing in Q2(also among the 1st tiers) is a red-flag.

Its also the only 1st tier bank that declared less of a dividend than previous yr guidance.
While it(UBA) remains undervalued @ the current mkt price(see my past guidance), there are genuine reasons to want to hold a little more of ACCESS than it.
It's not just about whether the latter might distribute more div to holders by YE 2020. ...a shrewd investor looks beyond that. He knows that real return(reward in view) is measured not just by the possibility of a cash flow accrual, but by the feasible QUALITY of an asset at any given time !!

The point is; Both are good, but which is better? Clearly ACCESS... hence the advise to align more in it ahead of UBA.(portfolio weighting in view)

And some dude who's yet to learn even the smallest details on FA was arguing blindly.
Maybe u and nna777 should help @meine with a bit of common sense. ...just a bit !! wink cheesy grin

If we begin to analyse the pros and cons in the 2 coys FP, some persons eyes go clear. shocked shocked
Maybe then, they'll understand and appreciate the reason for that advise on portfolio weighting.

For the records; I also hold UBA. ...but its totally logical to hold more ACCESS than it for now.

Regards

RabbiDoracle:


Bro, are you sure Access is better?

I looked at the result to see the source of disagreement.

In my own opinion, Access had a decline in Net interest income before (and after) impairment charges. UBA had an increase (before and after) in the same line item. This is the CORE function of a bank. Spending on acquisitions will not affect that line item. UBA is better based on this.

While Access had flat PAT, UBA had a considerable decline in PAT. The reason for UBA PAT decline can be attributed to increasing other expenses (covid donations and one contracts expense line). Access will be favourable based on this.

The herds will sell UBA because the herds look at PAT. Hence UBA seeing price decline while Access rising.

However one should focus more on the core function of the bank (net interest income).

My 2 kobo.

This is why I've always respected u.
U are one of those mature enough to engage constructively, and I like that.

Now to the crux of the matter;
I once wrote an article( https://www.booksie.com/604507-p2p-analysis-weighing-in-on-the-value-accretion-between-access-bank-uba) on these 2 banks drawing an inference post the comparison of which is better.
At the time, ACCESS despite their huge cost line and associated risk from asset detoriaration still managed to deliver more NPM than UBA.
Before I continue, permit me to correct an impression u might be having, considering that part of ur post in bold.
Banks derive earnings from either their CORE or NON-CORE banking line. ...so in retrospect, a bank must either be broadly INVESTMENT DRIVEN or LOAN DRIVEN or seek to strike a PROPER BALANCE in both lines. Where it is more investment driven, u'd expect the non-core banking line/channels to contribute the bulk of net margin, and where it is more loan driven, u'd expect the core banking line to do so.
For emphasis, the extent or degree of weighting a bank decides to attach to either of the 2 lines WILL ALWAYS depend on which way the economic indicators play out within a specified period.
To put things in context, at the height of activities and boom in the fixed income space btw 2016-2018, the banks(including uba) diverted funds therein and as expected, made far more from their non-core banking lines compared to their core lines.
The goal, at any given time is to grow, so NONE of these lines is as in important as delivering a positive in NET MARGIN/INCOME or at the very least, maintaining previous growth track. This is especially true of the Nigerian terrain where unfortunately, the real sector is given little or no consideration... no thanks to the many structural deficiencies in the system. The banks are there to grow and make money for their stakeholders. ...how it is made, is of very little importance here.
Hence, EFFICIENCY in this case is broadly defined by that part in italics and NOT whether ur growth margin had come from the core or non-core banking line.
By implication, of what use is UBA' higher growth in NIM if NPM went down?
We already know they had it good in that line(core banking). I mentioned it here then(see 1st post above)
But after that what happened? NIM is just one part of a banks profitability line. What does the other KEY indicators like NPM, EM, ROE, ROA, AER(asset efficiency ratio), CGPR, EFIR(external financing index ratio), PEG ratio and ETERPRISE VALUE say?

At the time I wrote that article above, this was also one of the issue that UBA had.(delivering higher NIM without a corresponding improvement in NPM). Fast forward to YE, 2019 and Q1, 2020, and they did improve on it. The bank had the best loan book portfolio ahead of even GTB and ZENITH and was well weighted in its investment income streams.(I remember mentioning it over a pchat with u then) And after that? ...well, the parts in bold from 2nd post above happened.

Historically,(look at the past 10 yr financial prints), UBA has often had this off and on growth. The bank, given its pedigree and African spread, ought to have moved past this stage.
That bank is supposed to be way bigger than ACCESS and near the class of GTB and ZENITH by now.
2 things; its either the management haven't managed to set up an entity that can maintain the needed growth trajectory.(inflow to outflow/expense line in view) or there are some persons playing occasional pranks.

With all the net positive at the income front, the bank still couldn't maintain its last growth track. Look at the statement of CF and u'll understand what played out bro.
Some of the items I've noticed in UBA recently, are a bit similar to the ones that played out with the gross mismanagement of funds in FBNH under the former GMD.


In all, there is no doubting the fact that ACCESS is better than UBA for now !! All key profitability, efficiency and growth indicators points to this.
And the statement of CF and BS lends even more credence to it.

I'll see if I can erk out the time to do an article on this later.

Cheers bro !!

6 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 11:03am On Sep 08, 2020
BIGBANG007:
KINGs...
How do you guys do it... How do you guys settle for 0.50 kobo profit... How dose it feels holding a position as long as almost forever... The dividend at the end of the day, is it worth it... The fact that over 80% of our home based institutions are jokes, it somewhat baffles me that people still majorly buy this 0.90 kobo in earning and #10 loss stocks... Do you put in major funds or what.....
IYGEAL:
50kobo profit can turn into hundreds of thousands, millions even; it depends on units. This is a game of numbers bro.
I concur @IYGEAL .
It's a game of numbers.
** In the recently announced Zenith interim dividends of 30kobo in Q2 2020, Jim Ovia will be pocketing N1.52B.
** Herbert Wigwe of Access: will pocket N379M with 25kobo interim dividend declared by Access.
** Tony Elumelu of UBA: will pocket N391M with 17kobo interim dividend declared by UBA.
.......and so on..........

Moral of the lesson: There's possibility of those kobo kobos to translate to millions. grin

4 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ebuka1997: 11:03am On Sep 08, 2020
Nigerian banks profit

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by BrokerHaruna: 11:05am On Sep 08, 2020
Guinness will shock many investors. Of all the companies in the sector, Guinness is the leader in the spirit segment which has tremendous upside. The company has very strong fundamentals and is backed by Diageo, the biggest player in the global space

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 11:10am On Sep 08, 2020
ebuka1997:
Nigerian banks profit
Zenith leading.
Still wonder why the bank remains under-valued despite the fantastic Y-O-Y profit turnouts. Yet there's big margin btw it's share price and GTB. smiley

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:19am On Sep 08, 2020
Mcy56:


I concur @IYGEAL .
It's a game of numbers.
** In the recently announced Zenith interim dividends of 30kobo in Q2 2020, Jim Ovia will be pocketing N1.52B.
** Herbert Wigwe of Access: will pocket N379M with 25kobo interim dividend declared by Access.
** Tony Elumelu of UBA: will pocket N391M with 17kobo interim dividend declared by UBA.
.......and so on..........

Moral of the lesson: There's possibility of those kobo kobos to translate to millions. grin

If u be average investor, u go old or even die put while wating for ur investment to be large enough to yield such millions at 1.7% return.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 11:23am On Sep 08, 2020
ebuka1997:
Nigerian banks profit

U see where ACCESS is? wink cheesy grin

It's not too good that even FBNH(a bank which was just coming off from a very troubled state under previous management) is even ahead of UBA.
Maybe that of STANBIC can be said to be understandable given the huge benefits accrued from their cash cow(asset management arm in view) but not FBNH naw !!

For the record, I also hold some UBA, but the TRUTH must be told.

It is well.

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 11:29am On Sep 08, 2020
ositadima1:
If u be average investor, u go old or even die put while wating for ur investment to be large enough to yield such millions at 1.7% return.
Dividend investors will not see it from your perspective.
Must your investment be up to that?
Using the CEOs as case study was just a way to drive home a point.
If you're a dividend investor, you don't view it from just one declared dividend but you view it wholistically.
Even with 200k investment, you can make something out over a period of years if you're in a good dividend paying stock and you're a dividend investor.

5 Likes

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