Streetinvestor2:
Oga with all seriousness. Can you say with certainty that TA showed you that transcorp will get to #18 plus and then back to #13 prompting you to sell and buy back.Or you just sold because you feel is over priced. Then luck smilled at you that it came down.why hasn't it happened in Dan cement and saplet
Dan cement from #145 to #600 plus
Saplet from #300 to #3000 plus

You too Sabi too much.
You are a philosopher and a student of Warren Buffet, na wetin I see from far.
The TA is a fearful instrument, created to increase stock broker Turnovers.
It is an instrument that disrupt the market by increasing volatility. It is an instrument that transfer wealth from impatient investors to the patient one.
It causes self investor to"Be fearful when others are greedy and make one greedy when others are fearful "
As a self investors (Not traders) your primary objective in the market is to identify PE mistake, this is easy in NGX with listed companies of 161.
One can identify companies that have good values(FUNDAMENTAL) but are currently trading at low PE due to social political issues and possible poor management. A change in any of the bolded usually unbundle the intrinsic price of the asset.
This is where I respect Femi Otedola, the ability to identify undervalued companies, noone beat him in Nigeria.
He is the best Fundamental investor in Nigeria. He is our own Warren Buffet.
He got a deep pocket, he single handedly changed the story of Transcorp, FBN, Dangote Cement. People like Otedola spends lot of money on research before betting their resources on a company.
TA analysts are still telling people to bail out of Dangote Cement despite the reason itemised by Otedola "Export Potential " A strong word.
The technical analysts on this thread indirectly prevented people from becoming Naira millionaires in 2023.
Many of them believe Zenith Bank would return to sub N20, Transcorp @ sub N1,.
TA does not take social political activities into consideration. A sell off of 2 red days was already interpreted as their anticipated 🐻 bear.
How on earth 🌎 would a market not experience intrinsic volatility?
A market that rose from 50K+ to 104+K in less than a year?
Yes, a marginal bear would come only after ASI of 150K.
I keep saying it, the only good news about the current administration is the NGX.
Security is Zero
Inflation zero
Corruption Zero
Trust zero
Economy zero
Good news zero
Quality of life zero
NGX....Excellent.
The market is experiencing an organic growth, not the manipulation of the past ,when there was no circuit breaker.
Today ,maximum daily price depreciation and appreciation of 10% cap is the order.
Corporate filling is improving
Insider trading and investing is also being reported daily.
Market Transparency is improving, there is always room for better improvement, Nigeria 🇳🇬 will get there.
People that remain invested in the market have nothing to fear about inflation and dollar prices. The reward time is here.
The inflation in Nigeria is man made, the artificial scarcity of dollar and Naira is political.
Yes, there is gross distrust between the rules and the ruled.
Our business as stakeholders in NGX listed companies is to invest and trade with self philosophy for investors and strategy for traders. The combination of the 2 for experience and old wine🍷like individuals like pa Emma and rest of the gurus.
My philosophy is buy and hold good Fundamental stocks forever.

Mankind2024:


My philosophy is buy and hold forever.

Surely this only works with companies with sound fundamentals (Great products, robust operating model and strong leadership)

Regardless, Audit companies providing assurance activities on these companies do still get it wrong from time to time and it’s not inconceivable to see another WorldCom, Enron, Patisserie Valerie et al

I see hatred and big misconception a reflection of very shallow knowledge about TA all the time on this platform. Most people just lack the ability to combine the two skills to be a sophisticated investor. They don’t know that it is traders that create volatility in the market allowing investors to make money by buying low to enjoy high DY.

This is why when I see this needless and senseless attack on TA from ignorant people here I smile and move on. However, this time around I just felt I needed to address it. I know it’s normal for people to criticize something they don’t deeply understand. However, rather than do that why not just focus on what works for you and allow others too use what works for them.

See, as the saying goes, there are several ways to skin a cat and in market terms, there are different strategies for making money from the market. Whoever has chosen TA, sentiment analysis, fundamental analysis or even spiritual analysis (as mentioned here sometime ago by someone and was practically crucified) respect it, don’t try to discredit it and now projecting your own choice on people.

The Bottomline remains we are in the market 10am to 14:30pm a week to make MONEY!!!. Therefore, so long a person’s strategy is making him or her money in line with his or her objective, then no one, I repeat no one, gives a f^ck about which analysis is better!

Enough said.

222Martins:
I share your sentiment and strategy. If i had 1 Million units of Transcorp at start, and i love Transcorp so much like @Mankind2024; i would have traded the highs and lows of Transcorp taking my units from 1 Million to 3 Million or more without adding any more of my money; while still taking a long term position as an investor.

The last time I disposed my precious Transcorp Hotel which I bought at sub N3 to N4 at the peak of covid pandemic, na so I go do research, dey follow worldwide TA, wey all of them come agreed say Transcorp Hotel done outperformed, make we bail out, Na so I go surrender my gold at N55.00, hoping to re-enter at a discount.
Na him Transcorp come raise to N100. Yes ,I made profit at the expense of transferring wealth to the buyer at gross discount.
Investment philosophy defeated. Till date, I no fit take the risk of re-boarding TRANSCOHOT.
Thank God, I re-invested all in ikeja hotel and currently returning 174%.
TA is not bad, it benefit TRADERS more.

Streetinvestor2:
Oga with all seriousness. Can you say with certainty that TA showed you that transcorp will get to #18 plus and then back to #13 prompting you to sell and buy back.Or you just sold because you feel is over priced. Then luck smilled at you that it came down. why hasn't it happened in Dan cement and saplet
Dan cement from #145 to #600 plus
Saplet from #300 to #3000 plus

I like your sense of humour!
When you know how to use all TA tools to your advantage, you'll discover its potential! TA can show you when there is price weakness or strength, fear or greed , risk-off or risk-on, market breadth, short- or long-term trends, etc. Integrate all these with the news. Then what you have is a powerful investing tool.

Can TA show the future price? Emphatic Yes! TA can project future price levels; after the stock price reaches those levels, you re-evaluate the tools responses. Is market breadth changed to bearish etc? If not, "allow the stock to breadth"

Well, find below the future price projection for Transcorp again. In case price get to those level, then I will put out my TA weapons to re-evaluate the situation at that time. That's how we roll in TA investment.

I can't explain the methodology in full here, but if you think it's luck that made me buy-back again at 13, I beg, I pray for more around me.

@ coolcash, enough comments on TA.
Noone is discrediting TA.
To be a winner 🏆 in the market one would have used it at a time or the other.
Sharing personal experience on what work better for an individual does not translates to hatred for TA or FA.
Learning is continuous, market is dynamic. We learn everyday.
Here is d adv/ Disad of TA.

***copied****
Market Timing: Technical analysis helps traders identify potential entry and exit points based on historical price patterns, aiding in better market timing.

Visualization: Charts and technical indicators provide a visual representation of market data, making it easier for traders to interpret and analyze trends.

Short-Term Predictions: Well-applied technical analysis can be effective for short-term predictions and identifying short-term trends.


Disadvantages of Technical Analysis:

Subjectivity: Interpretation of charts and patterns can vary among analysts, leading to subjective judgments and potential bias.

Limited Fundamental Analysis: Technical analysis focuses solely on price movements, often neglecting fundamental factors that can influence stock prices.

Overemphasis on Past Data: Relying solely on historical data might not accurately predict future market movements, as market conditions can change.

It's important to note that many traders use a combination of technical and fundamental analysis for a more comprehensive approach to decision-making in the stock market.

Above all, everyone is responsible for their philosophy and strategy in the market.
Luck or Patient is the COMMON FACTOR for TA, FA and the users of both.
The best FA and TA users may not always win, why a naive investor can strike gold by just asking a question at the right time on Where to invest in NGX today?

BullBearMkt:

I like your sense of humour!
When you know how to use all TA tools to your advantage, you'll discover its potential! TA can show you when there is price weakness or strength, fear or greed , risk-off or risk-on, market breadth, short- or long-term trends, etc. Integrate all these with the news. Then what you have is a powerful investing tool.

Can TA show the future price? Emphatic Yes! TA can project future price levels; after the stock price reaches those levels, you re-evaluate the tools responses. Is market breadth changed to bearish etc? If not, "allow the stock to breadth"

Well, find below the future price projection for Transcorp again. In case price get to those level, then I will put out my TA weapons to re-evaluate the situation at that time. That's how we roll in TA investment.

I can't explain the methodology in full here, but if you think it's luck that made me buy-back again at 13, I beg, I pray for more around me.

I respect your ingenuity of TA, but without TA, putting the fundamentals and recent events in Transcorp into consideration, I already predicted that it will get to N26+ in 2024, coz it is a potential member of SWOOT, and destination SWOOT we are going
LOL

GSK don stain our white finish

I'm just curious though; I got my long awaited alert this morning but it's incomplete, say about half of what it would have been (I'm aware it's about 15.xx naira).

Did those who got paid get theirs paid in installments or should I be concerned?

IYGEAL:
GSK don stain our white finish

I'm just curious though; I got my long awaited alert this morning but it's incomplete, say about half of what it would have been (I'm aware it's about 15.xx naira).

Did those who got paid get theirs paid in installments or should I be concerned?

I just got mine this morning too. Mine is complete after factoring in the 10% wht. You should probably do them an email.

Kreos44:

I just got mine this morning too. Mine is complete after factoring in the 10% wht. You should probably do them an email.

mine is also complete after deduction of 10% tax

Kreos44:

I just got mine this morning too. Mine is complete after factoring in the 10% wht. You should probably do them an email.

I will email them on Monday.

Mankind2024:


I respect your ingenuity of TA, but without TA, putting the fundamentals and recent events in Transcorp into consideration, I already predicted that it will get to N26+ in 2024, coz it is a potential member of SWOOT, and destination SWOOT we are going
LOL

What is the meaning of this SWOOT ?

BabsO2:


What is the meaning of this SWOOT ?

Stocks worth over one trillion

IYGEAL:
GSK don stain our white finish

I'm just curious though; I got my long awaited alert this morning but it's incomplete, say about half of what it would have been (I'm aware it's about 15.xx naira).

Did those who got paid get theirs paid in installments or should I be concerned?

Yes, I just got paid and it was complete.

Are you sure it's not through different brokers you bought the shares? If it is, then maybe it's credited according to how you got it.

If you register for CSCS access, check to be sure your number of shares is exactly what you know/believe it is. If you don't have the access, first thing tomorrow morning request for your broker to send you your CSCS statement before GSK is later deleted from your account.

It might also be that you are being credited in batches according to how to got it.

Kreos44:

Stocks worth over one trillion

Thanks

freeman67:


Yes, I just got paid and it was complete.

Are you sure it's not through different brokers you bought the shares? If it is, then maybe it's credited according to how you got it.

If you register for CSCS access, check to be sure your number of shares is exactly what you know/believe it is. If you don't have the access, first thing tomorrow morning request for your broker to send you your CSCS statement before GSK is later deleted from your account.

It might also be that you are being credited in batches according to how to got it.

I have access to my CSCS and the quantity is the same in my broker. I bought with one broker.

I recall buying in batches but not sure of the last quantity bought; so maybe they are paying in batches. I have actually emailed them since they didn't mind to make the payment today.

IYGEAL:


I have access to my CSCS and the quantity is the same in my broker. I bought with one broker.

I recall buying in batches but not sure of the last quantity bought; so maybe they are paying in batches. I have actually emailed them since they didn't mind to make the payment today.

I just went through my X-Alerts to find that they paid for the last units bought.

BullBearMkt:

I like your sense of humour!
When you know how to use all TA tools to your advantage, you'll discover its potential! TA can show you when there is price weakness or strength, fear or greed , risk-off or risk-on, market breadth, short- or long-term trends, etc. Integrate all these with the news. Then what you have is a powerful investing tool.

Can TA show the future price? Emphatic Yes! TA can project future price levels; after the stock price reaches those levels, you re-evaluate the tools responses. Is market breadth changed to bearish etc? If not, "allow the stock to breadth"

Well, find below the future price projection for Transcorp again. In case price get to those level, then I will put out my TA weapons to re-evaluate the situation at that time. That's how we roll in TA investment.

I can't explain the methodology in full here, but if you think it's luck that made me buy-back again at 13, I beg, I pray for more around me.

From this graph. Thr is likelihood of transcorp touching #20 .Then to what price is it likely to pullback towards.let me see if it will happen when the time comes..

Streetinvestor2:
From this graph. Thr is likelihood of transcorp touching #20 .Then to what price is likely to pullback .let me see if it will happen when the time comes..

Pls leave TRANSCORP alone, it's a Sunday, take some time out to rest and energize for tomorrow.
...just kidding bro!

Lot's of pages to read from, but not much time available to do so.
Seeing quite some lovely constructive engagements in the last few pages, though over 86% were centered around 3 coys. (GSK, OANDO and TRANSCORP)
...that man in the middle!

Nice inputs overall.
To all those doing their bit to keep the thread alive, more power to your elbow!

It is well

onegentleguy:

Probable scenarios on TRANSCORP;

1) Certain crop of persons with links to the core investor/majority holder and those with insider information on the outcome of her last BOD meeting may have been mopping up the shares on the floor.
The coys recent technicals (ref: PV action) is suggestive of this fact.
This could be the reason for the high volatility in price of the asset as they tactfully push it down in spasms to engage in staggered but strategic accumulation until they achieve their set out target.

2) Then comes the unbundling of her energy business arm from the group and
listing of TRANSCORP ENERGY as a separate entity.

3) Allotment of an estimated % proportion to all stakeholders of TRANSCORP. (ref: UBA >> UCAP/AFPRUD way)
However, the % equity distribution to qualified minority holders will be very small, most probably a calculated attempt to ensure that TRANSCORP ENERGY's free float on listing, maintains a wide deviation from would-be OS, with NCI and "others" having the lion's share.

4) If truly the intention is to remain a listed entity, the share price will then be proped up (artificial skip) the "geregu way" (as we saw when geregu power was listed) to attract... and fulfill....

5) The core investor/majority holder will then proceed with a PP/RI post listing, to increase the coys OS.
Well of course for himself and/or his cronies by taking up an appreciable proportion of the PP/RI in other to remain in "charge" of affairs in the coy.

6) You may eventually be bought over in future (MTO in view) depending on how items No 4, 5 & 6 play out.

N.B: This is only a plausibility, not a certainty! ...so iit may or may not play out.

Whatever happens though, I continue to think that the current holders of TRANSCORP will benefit from it! Though much of what should accrue as great future benefit might end up been diverted. (if 4, 5 & 6 play out)

Interestingly, TRANSCORP POWER LTD dolled out a total cash dividend of N214 per share to its shareholders in 2022. And yes you heard me right... N214 !!
By the way, that's a near 70% increase from what was declared in the previous calendar yr.

Should I hold on to my TRANSCORP?

A lot depends on ones entry price. If you were among the early birds who keyed in below N1 or @ N1--2+, it might be ok to lock in your capital together with a good proportion of ROI and redirect the funds to other great asset. Then you can hold the balance.
Whatever happens, you should be good!

Many folks will recall I issued a buy recommendation on TRANSCORP, 1st @ N1.14 following several analysis.
I later gave it an outperform rating @ below N2 when many folks had doubts about the assets value accretive potential post release of her Q1, 2022 financial print.

As always, it pays to be among the early birds!

CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as an investment advice. The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

It is well

🌙🕋🎬♟️🫧

Omo see long tory wey no get body

TA means only one tin to a real jigga

T- Tits
A- Ass


I love TA

TA for life.


Continue postin long long tins

Come tomorrow the feast Dey begin for wan do do.

U go still B hia - postin lobbish

onegentleguy:


Pls leave TRANSCORP alone, it's a Sunday, take some time out to rest and energize for tomorrow.
...just kidding bro! ;

Bro just came back home to rest From church service to hospital to see a friends daughter on admission.

I was expecting you to say something on gsk as per the payment and WHT.I remember gsk was one of your strong recommendation in the past.i guess it was about that time I bought it after DD.Whr you expecting the 10% deduction from the money..And what do you think on IB results. It is one of your call out that current price said NO again to because of FA.Do you still see light at the end

Streetinvestor2:
Bro just came back home to rest From church service to hospital to see a friends daughter on admission.

I was expecting you to say something on gsk as per the payment and WHT.I remember gsk was one of your strong recommendation in the past.i guess it was about that time I bought it after DD.Whr you expecting the 10% deduction from the money..And what do you think on IB results. It is one of your call out that current price said NO again to because of FA.Do you still see light at the end

This could be longer, but here's an honest brief;

@ Frangel was right (I read your engagements with him), but the truth is that there was more to the issues that surrounded GSK. (including but not limited to why they had to wind up their business operation)

Yes it's true that the winding up process (unlike that for a buy-out) necessitated the 10% WHT deduction.
It's important to understand the terms "winding up" and "buy-out" of a business entity.
They both have a few similarities and differences.
The KEY similarity is that in both processes, there's a distribution of proceeds to eligible creditors and shareholders post settlement of all pending/outstanding obligations.

With a winding up exercise though, assets are SOLD OUT and the company's affairs in the target country of operation is brought to a CLOSE.
...it is for this singular reason that a winding up exercise will often precede a dissolution. (a legal term for terminating the company's existence within/in that country)
Contrarily, in a buyout, assets are BOUGHT OVER (usually by the majority/core or PE investor) but the company's affairs remains OPEN and operational in that country.

Between the 2 process, the latter (buy-out) when pursued with equity and fairness, tends to be a bit more favourable/rewarding to minority shareholders for the singular reason that the former (winding up) will more often than not, put the company in an often distressing position where assets could be SOLD for less their true value, so she can immediately settle stakeholders and leave.

Yet another not-so-good part about a winding up process is how it tends to (oftentimes completely) set aside the carrying-value of intangible assets of the company.
For instance; GSK may have had some great GOODWILL lines (brand worthiness, HC/manpower etc) that would've otherwise accrued as value to shareholders if the company had taken the buy-out route rather than winding up. (intangibles like Goodwill is often factored in when extrapolating the EV of a coy)

Needless to highlight that the former process would of course imply a more prudent and viable business exit option for any forward thinking investor. (FDI in view)

GSK Nigeria found herself in something quite similar. ...they just had to go the winding up and assigned 3rd party distribution model route and rightly so!
Nigeria is a painfully funny place. There are stuffs to say but some things are better left unsaid.

Here's the part that should interest you though.
GSK will sure doll out an additional cash distribution.
I had given an estimate of what could be the plausible figure in some of my previous analysis. (see past post for guidance)

On INTBREW;
Not much to say. A good wine they say...

As I told some folks; many will focus on the SPL and not take cognizance of the recurrent great improvement recorded in the company's SCF and BS position.
Some persons still don't know that a company can record a loss in NOPAT/PAT and still be grossly underpriced.
The key is in the ability to proficiently figure out why there was a loss and how it connects to the holding value/feasible reward in that asset. ...then you can relate your findings to the assets equity price to draw a sound judgement.

There are pros and cons with the expected share capital reduction exercise (ref: reduction in nominal value by a factor of 25x) in between the planned RI.
I know most folks will focus on the cons and fail to efficiently benchmark it against the undisputably much better pros. Am hoping that more persons will sell off their holdings, so price can drop a bit more.
The coys PV action (TA in view) will be a great guide. ...I like the current set-up/structure.
I will strongly advice you never to downplay the efficacy of using technical analysis.
As always; FA is great, but supplementing it with SA and especially TA is even better!

There's an extremely high probability that at least 88% of the things I foresee for that coy (INTBREW) will eventually play out.
...that asset will gift some folks (including you) a lot of money.

Get a trailer load.... HOLD!

CAVEAT: I recently had migraine and the doctor attributed it to too much analysis. This might just be the consequence of his postulation.
NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice!

Selah

As your lordship pleases...

Streetinvestor2:
Oga go sit for one side.No carry your sense come my side.Your initially post was as e don pass make I keep quiet. Why didn't you say why WTH was deducted from the money. You want to teach me what is retained earnings. Did I tell you I am a carpenter .It was specified and people wr buying above #16 ,some even bought at #17.

The English was buying out minority shareholders by majority shareholders and subsequently delisting. Why didn't they just share the retained earnings and cash as special dividend long ago. Then later deliist after selling the remaining assets to pay us what ever it generates after taking care of liabilities

Gsk closed shop in nigeria because they are not straight and not the economy. I am sure they whr equally getting cheap dollars.

Several people want to prove a point.
However at the end of the day, everyone wants to make profit. The margin and method varies across board...
I don't brag about strategies neither do I argue. I know what works for me and I am on the lookout for a better method...

Coolcash1:
I see hatred and big misconception a reflection of very shallow knowledge about TA all the time on this platform. Most people just lack the ability to combine the two skills to be a sophisticated investor. They don’t know that it is traders that create volatility in the market allowing investors to make money by buying low to enjoy high DY.

This is why when I see this needless and senseless attack on TA from ignorant people here I smile and move on. However, this time around I just felt I needed to address it. I know it’s normal for people to criticize something they don’t deeply understand. However, rather than do that why not just focus on what works for you and allow others too use what works for them.

See, as the saying goes, there are several ways to skin a cat and in market terms, there are different strategies for making money from the market. Whoever has chosen TA, sentiment analysis, fundamental analysis or even spiritual analysis (as mentioned here sometime ago by someone and was practically crucified) respect it, don’t try to discredit it and now projecting your own choice on people.

The Bottomline remains we are in the market 10am to 14:30pm a week to make MONEY!!!. Therefore, so long a person’s strategy is making him or her money in line with his or her objective, then no one, I repeat no one, gives a f^ck about which analysis is better!


Enough said.

Send the mail now.
They'll attend to it first thing on Monday morning...

IYGEAL:


I will email them on Monday.

Demaxl:
How do i get into stock exchange as a beginner?
I am a student and I want to get into the market

A good step in the right direction.
The earlier you're on this path, the better.

* Contact a responsive digital broker to open a trading account.
* Concentrate on one or two dividend paying and fundamentally sound stocks max, and start buying and increasing the quantities as spare funds is dropping in your hands...by transferring it to your investment account to increase your holdings.
** From there, you start learning about investments and how it works, the different types we have and how you can explore them as you leave school and start working.

Also, click this link and let Oga BullbearMrk's 1st post on the page be a source of encouragement to you.
Good luck!

https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/7571

InfinixMine:
Chairman, please examples of fundamentally sound stocks.
Thank you

They're plenty and are been discussed here every now and then.
* But note that entry is very important.....most of them have gone up around this time, to enter depends on you.....but you may have to wait for pullback in those stocks.
When this will happen? I dont know. You'll just have to keep abreast of happenings in the market at all times and follow this thread as well.

All SWOOT members: SEPLAT, DANGCEM, MTNN, AIRTEL, GEREGU, NESTLE, GTB, ZENITH, FBNN, ACCESS, UBA, BUACEM, BUAFOODS

* Other Big Cap Stocks: OKOMU, PRESCO, WAPCO, FMN
* Other Banking Stocks: FCMB, FIDELITY, STERLING
* Some insurance Stocks: Custodian, Mansard, LASACO, Cornerstone, NEM
* Oil and Gas Stocks: TOTAL, CONOIL
* Others: LEARN AFRICA, JBERGER, DANGSUGAR, NASCON, BERGER PAINT, IMG, etc

* Will update as I remember others....

Kreos44:
I don check my mobile app so tey the app dey show me balance now before I put pin.

Lol.

Streetinvestor2:
From this graph. Thr is likelihood of transcorp touching #20 .Then to what price is it likely to pullback towards.let me see if it will happen when the time comes..

...boss, there is nothing to prove to you, if my previous posts cannot convince you, I think subsequent ones may likely confuse you