yodiyokun:

Ok I have checked UNIC numbers, @ pumping confirm if I am on the right track

As at todays price Proj PE is 16.20 based on the 2nd Qtr results,

I wonder when they will bring out their 3rd qtr results, its due already.

Lets see how far it will free fall -

I have the same figure.

Nahco's stock price is still on the rise and now N28.90 despite a forward adjusted PE of around 52 after factoring in 25% possible oversubscription. Wow!! I hope Nahco has some very positive surprises in the offing. I don't need to be told that many times the NSE is no respecter of fundamentals _{at least short term}

FatherOF2 - I can't get over your reference to "spreadsheet profit" earlier today. True talk indeed!! This can be dangerous.

The reverse is my greatest problem though. Once I see "money" in my spreadsheet I want to convert it to Banker's cash right away without waiting for possible further rise. I tend to stick to my exit point almost 100% but sometimes I wonder.

pumping777:

Nahco's stock price is still on the rise and now N28.90 despite a forward adjusted PE of around 52 after factoring in 25% possible oversubscription. Wow!! I don't need to be told that many times the NSE is no respecter of fundamentals [sub][/sub]at least short term.

Gave a sell order for my NAHCO. Anything above 29.00 is good although longer throat is saying 32. Nothing justifies the price so no point getting caught in the correction. I am out this week. At least half of my holdings there will gone.

For those trending PAT of Insurance companies, be careful. Claims may just throw the whole calculation upside down. Also the dividend yield for insurance companies is quite low.

UNIC is still a favourite. At least, we have better view of the numbers. Also, the business model is sound. What is not clear now is what was done to the non-life business. How is that being handled?

Bought the PO last year at 1.10 so no drive for me to buy again. However it is a stock to hold.

Check here for download links for UNIC INSURANCE and Bank Valuation Table
http://www.emmaachile.itgo.com/

Check PHB Weekly Report file
Happy Investing

I remain loyal to Lawunion

EMMAACHILE:

Check here for download links for UNIC INSURANCE and Bank Valuation Table
http://www.emmaachile.itgo.com/

Thanks. That report is however filled with errors. UNIC strategic plan is not in line with what teh analyst wrote.

For starters, UNIC is not strong in the oil and gas sector. UNIC is actually planning to farm out its non-life insurance to concentrate on Life. They are good in health insurance. That is really the cash cow. They also have a recreation centre planned for VGC. Not sure if it is completed now. What is not clear is if the non life sector contribution to profit is included in this interim result.

@pumping777
thanks for the links.
just what i wanted.

i haven't said much in a little while but i've been following the trend closely on this thread and i am really worried speculators are becoming distracting and feeding the unfortunate hunger or should i say greed of young investors.
we are all here trying to share info and learn as much as possible to make informed decisions and take the proverbial "calculated risk" with our resouces.
i am always one for expressing your opinions freely but do not badger impressionable, less experienced investors into taking your advice or suggestions. put forward your arguments and reasons for thinking the way u do and let the other party make their own decisions.

this thread has and continues to be a wealth of information and learning. it is a real credit to all nigerians. lets keep it that way!

lets keep it clean, informative, productive and wealth producing as it has been in the last year (at least up till about 3 weeks ago anyway).

enough said,
lets talk money brothers.

anyone got any any insights into why firstbank is doing so well?

@tommy t, damoche07 & easimoni

I think what is driving Japaul is the fact that the company was going to pull the PO due to demand by the oil majors.

It should be a long term and a short term stock.

What happens short term will depend on how Japaul accommodates the majors demand Whether by allotting from the PO or by creating new shares by way of private placement. The latter will reduce the immediate upwards trajectory but long term will remain sound.

Happy hunting.

Samstone4

aktopgun:

i haven't said much in a little while but i've been following the trend closely on this thread and i am really worried speculators are becoming distracting and feeding the unfortunate hunger or should i say greed of young investors.
we are all here trying to share info and learn as much as possible to make informed decisions and take the proverbial "calculated risk" with our resouces.
i am always one for expressing your opinions freely but do not badger impressionable, less experienced investors into taking your advice or suggestions. put forward your arguments and reasons for thinking the way u do and let the other party make their own decisions.

this thread has and continues to be a wealth of information and learning. it is a real credit to all nigerians. lets keep it that way!



lets keep it clean, informative, productive and wealth producing as it has been in the last year (at least up till about 3 weeks ago anyway).

enough said,
lets talk money brothers.

anyone got any any insights into why firstbank is doing so well?

Good day Gentlemen.

I have not contributed in a while, but i have been following the thread steadily. I am howver compelled to write to find out if there was a vote to appoint prefects in the house to weigh comments made by different people. One of the the things i enjoy most about this thread is the widely divergent outlooks. This varying perspectives and the ensuing dialogues is is one of the things which may not be obvious to many but has kept this thread growing.

Let everyone come and contribute "the villifed speculators " and the self righteous fundamental investors". All of una. I beg let us hear word. Varying positions (speculators, shot-timers, medium timers, long-timers) all together make the market.

FAtherOF2, i enjoy your no holds barred approach which i know may have gotten you into trouble a few times, Pumping your obsession for fundamnetals provides a healthy check and balance.  However, i have learnt a thing or two from u guys and other people in the forum.

It is beyond anyone paygrade here to be cautioning on individual's styles and approach to the market.

So to the "self righteous lets keep the thread fundamental analysis focused" folks. Read the thread, take what you need, junk the rest and resist the urge to talk down on anyone's style.

Does anyone know what is going on with UBN.

I just learnt about a system flash report from bloomberg that states in a one liner that UBN may be on the verge of been acquired!!!!. Nov 28th.

I will let u know as soon as i have more information.

Well said Dollar!!!

Pumping,


I saw in the thread that you intended taking a position in dangote sugar. What is your outlook on this stock.

If we do not even go in depth to number cruching, it is easy to see that

if the market feels N47 is the right price to pay for 7UP for for projected   EPS of 2.53
                                         N61.50                                  for CONOIL for projected EPS of  2.88
                                         N 56.20                                 for UBA for project EPS of 2.04
                                         N 46.69                                 for FBN for projected EPS 1.75 or less
                                         N52.48                                  for Ashakacem for projcted EPS 2.05

The market will wake up to determine that N36 is not the right price for dangote sugar with Proj EPS of 2.65.

dollarmani:

Pumping,


I saw in the thread that you intended taking a position in dangote sugar. What is your outlook on this stock.

If we do not even go in depth to number cruching, it is easy to see that

if the market feels N47 is the right price to pay for 7UP for for projected   EPS of 2.53
                                         N61.50                                  for CONOIL for projected EPS of  2.88
                                         N 56.20                                 for UBA for project EPS of 2.04
                                         N 46.69                                 for FBN for projected EPS 1.75 or less
                                         N52.48                                  for Ashakacem for projcted EPS 2.05

The market will wake up to determine that N36 is not the right price for dangote sugar with Proj EPS of 2.65.

I already took position in Dangote Sugar at N34.54 about two weeks ago. Then the forward PE was around 14.5. The order had actually expired with my broker the previous week becuase the price did not drop to my bid price, but for some reason they still bought it the following week but no complaints.

I will not make the comparisions (In effect you are comparing PE ratios though with EPS) you have made above for 2 reasons.

1. The companies are in different industries and so we should not compare PE ratios in this way. When the growth potential in an industry is high, then a higher PE can be reasonably accommodated as we have seen with the banks. In the same way in every industry some stocks are considered premium and will usually have a higher PE. Nestle and Zenith easily come to mind.

2. Dangote's dividend yield is high and so capital appreciation will tend to be lower.

I have a positive outlook on Dangote but my entry price remains below N35 for now. With the bulls on, I feel it is still a safe pick. I don't expect mega returns but it will let some of my spare money work for me instead of loafing in cash. I don't think the stock is currently worth N47 now though.

dollarmani:

Pumping,


I saw in the thread that you intended taking a position in dangote sugar. What is your outlook on this stock.

If we do not even go in depth to number cruching, it is easy to see that

if the market feels N47 is the right price to pay for 7UP for for projected   EPS of 2.53
                                        N61.50                                  for CONOIL for projected EPS of  2.88
                                        N 56.20                                 for UBA for project EPS of 2.04
                                        N 46.69                                 for FBN for projected EPS 1.75 or less
                                        N52.48                                  for Ashakacem for projcted EPS 2.05

The market will wake up to determine that N36 is not the right price for dangote sugar with Proj EPS of 2.65.

EPS just tells half the story, you need to scale EPS by something to tell the full story.  Because Dangote Sugar has an EPS of N2.65 does not necessarily make it better than a stock with an EPS of N0.50.  Secondly, you Dangote Sugar is not in the same line of business as UBA, CONOIL, FBN e.t.c.  They are all in different industries with diferent growth rates and this should be factored in

Dangote's problem is the quarterly dividend. At a meeting with brokers, the mgt of Dangote are reconsidering the quarterly dividend practice.

The market will still react to the fundamentals but it will take some time. Right now, there is nothing to drive the price. I mean a dividend of about 50k is what is left for the year!

@ all

 could resist the urge to chip in on the different  participants on the thread. Investing isnt like maths where we all must arrive at a single correct solution. The only situation where i would permit myself to be characterized as a fundamenatalist is on this thread ! Having said that , for all the analysis in the world , the technical aspect and the human sentiment and emotion involved can make the market appear senseless , but you just dont argue with the crowd. However ,you may siddon look until the prices look fair for you to enter. My point is  being a speculator is not bad , in fact when you mix it  with F.A YOU HAVE A WIN-WIN SITUATION. I almost always buy more than the units i need , so i can take advantage of any short term upswings ,but always with a restriction- the firm's fundamentals must be solid.

@ Father of 2

  your inputs are well appreciated. and you seem to have a way of profiting from the inefficiences of the market. Nice one indeed. the 'spreadsheet money " part was amusing . Finance majors call it UNREALIZED GAINS  and my boys call it paper money. keep it coming !

 @ Pumping ,wanaj0 , easimoni, aktop et all.

Owo legba osi !  G= RR X ROE  !

@ pumping777, one important thing u ned to know about dang.sugar is it will always attract market sentiment, it has a forward pe of 14 and it can easily have a pe of 20. the fundamentals support it. 27 naira wont be bad by march. i have good views of this coy.

sorry meant 47

@ easimoni,
FCMBs prospectus factored in the possible oversubscription(25%) and it gave an eps of 0.96. 25 naira is still a possibility and thats 50% appreciation. they are on course to hit the 15bn pat cos they make majolrly in last quarter

Actually, I never wanted to touch on this topic again but I can't help expressing myself after a few responses that I think will only allow some investors throw caution to the winds. Some folks are only concerned about others that may be misguided without the necessary caveat or caution. I believe, folks here are happy to find opinions and investment philiosophies that differ from theirs on this thread. I don't think this is the point.

Let me put forward an example. I read earlier today of someone massing up Fidelity Bank during TS to ride on the "bull" after lifting TS. Do we really expect the price of Fidelity to rise after TS is lifted? It could not doubt but I just don't expect it. I think it is an unnecessary risk to take. The principle is okay in this case but it has probably been applied to the wrong stock.

It is very okay to express ourselves as we like but it is also good to always inject a word of caution so folks look well before they leap.

shigidi:

@ pumping777, one important thing u ned to know about dang.sugar is it will always attract market sentiment, it has a forward pe of 14 and it can easily have a pe of 20. the fundamentals support it. 27 naira wont be bad by march. i have good views of this coy.

That will make me smiile but honestly I consider Dangote Sugar a slow coach. It has the lowest PE in the sector and this or sentiments are not driving the price yet. The dividends payout is a major issue.

Gentlemen

I understand that you can not compare apples and onions. My point however is that it is thesame market that looks at all this tocks. The basis for investing in any stock by this market as far as we all know is earnings potential right?. Whether you are investing in banking, food or insurance, you are looking for who will give you the best value for evry naira you put. MY pseudo table above simply showed implicitly what that market generally seems appropriate to pay for each unit of the stocks. This comparison is valid across sectors because the denomiantor is common. "Earnings" . Now companies may have diff operatioanl challenges and advantages peculiar to the sector they belong to. However a non sentimental investor will look at earnings bottom line. (Earnings for each naira i put in which may translate into bonus issues, dividends or capital appreciation)

Riddle

Guys if i said to you here in one hand is ogbomoso grown agbalumo  which if you buy for N1 today you can sell for N1.50 (and earn 50K)in three months and on the other hand i have californian glade grown oranges in the other hand which if you buy for N2 you will be able to sell for N2.25 (and earn 25k) in three months. Will you still need to look for the price of another strain of agbalumo say bakasi grown agbalumo (same sector) to tell you that the ogbomoso grown agablumo is a good deal.



My point is there are somethings that are obvious at the high level which further investigation only underscores.

shigidi:

@ easimoni,
FCMBs prospectus factored in the possible oversubscription(25%) and it gave an eps of 0.96. 25 naira is still a possibility and thats 50% appreciation. they are on course to hit the 15bn pat because they make majolrly in last quarter

Did you notice that the prospectus listed the same number of projected shares for full subscription and 25% over subscritption?

"*Forecast earnings per share and dividend per share for the years ending 30th April 2008, 2009 is based in 14,923,859,000 ordinary shares of
50 kobo each while forecast earnings per share for the year ending 30 April 2010 is based on the 15,850,825,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo
each that will be in issue after the conversion of the preference shares."

Also the projected PAT for FY 2008 with full subscription is less than the projected PAT with 25% oversubscription for the same fiscal year end.

dollarmani:

Gentlemen

I understand that you can not compare apples and onions. My point however is that it is thesame market that looks at all this tocks. The basis for investing in any stock by this market as far as we all know is earnings potential right?. Whether you are investing in banking, food or insurance, you are looking for who will give you the best value for evry naira you put. MY pseudo table above simply showed implicitly what that market generally seems appropriate to pay for each unit of the stocks. This comparison is valid across sectors because the denomiantor is common. "Earnings" . Now companies may have diff operatioanl challenges and advantages peculiar to the sector they belong to. However a non sentimental investor will look at earnings bottom line. (Earnings for each naira i put in which may translate into bonus issues, dividends or capital appreciation)

Riddle

Guys if i said to you here in one hand is ogbomoso grown agbalumo which if you buy for N1 today you can sell for N1.50 (and earn 50K)in three months and on the other hand i have californian glade grown oranges in the other hand which if you buy for N2 you will be able to sell for N2.25 (and earn 25k) in three months. Will you still need to look for the price of another strain of agbalumo say bakasi grown agbalumo (same sector) to tell you that the ogbomoso grown agablumo is a good deal.

My point is there are somethings that are obvious at the high level which further investigation only underscores.

You see, the real point is that you are projecting this income. If you are working with trailing PE's there is no problem. You see I can prefer a company with PE of 25 to a company of PE of 20 today if I believe the growth rate of company A is twice that of company B. So in 2 years time, based on todays price company A may now have a PE of 10 instead of 25 and company B will have PE of 15 instead of 20. Company A has made up for the initial premium paid on it's price.

As an example Berger Paints has a forward PE of 13.69 but this does not make it the hottest stock even in it's own sector. CAP Plc in the same sector has a projected PE of 44.29 while NGC stands at 17.12. You cannot normalize the prices in the way you have. There are other factors that influence the price.

Of course you are right that the numbers can serve to raise your antenna and prompt further investigation.

I bow for your proverb sha. Keep them coming.

pumping777:

Let me put forward an example. I read earlier today of someone massing up Fidelity Bank during TS to ride on the "bull" after lifting TS. Do we really expect the price of Fidelity to rise after TS is lifted? It could not doubt but I just don't expect it. I think it is an unnecessary risk to take. The principle is okay in this case but it has probably been applied to the wrong stock.

I tried this concept with Access which, unlike Fidelity, was on net bid most of its time on TS. Guess what; when the TS was lifted, the so-called bull run never materialized and I was left hanging  . I was cool with it because I knew (and still know) Access was undervalued.

Fidelity has been on net offer since the day it went on TS. FCMB's results are good but already factored into the current price. If anyone wants to buy overpriced shares to "ride the bull"; be my guest (no be my money  ). Me thinks the market is getting more sophistciated, therefore, buy only buy shares you can live with if your timing of market sentiments is wrong. This thing of buying stocks on TS may no longer be a bright idea. He who has ears

pumping,

well said

I have to add that FatherOF2' method is even more sophisticated because he is timing the lifting of TS and the release of interim results. No doubt a brilliant strategy which is really commendable.

pumping777:

I have to add that FatherOF2' method is even more sophisticated because he is timing the lifting of TS and the release of interim results. No doubt a brilliant strategy which is really commendable.

Biko Fatherof2. Abeg, how u dey predict these things? You have to reveal the "code" you've been alluding to.

To all gurus in da house. Are my calculations wrong or right based on the 9mths unaudited results? I used 600m outstanding shares.

Current Group EPS: 0.497

Current Group PE: 12.25



Current company EPS: 0.42

Current Company PE: 14.5

To all gurus in da house. Are my calculations wrong or right based on the 9mths unaudited results for C&I Leasing? I used 600m outstanding shares.

Which would you use to determine the projected price? The Company or group figures?

Current Group EPS: 0.497

Current Group PE: 12.25



Current company EPS: 0.42

Current Company PE: 14.5