olril17:


bro..I can never in my life vote for Apc again whoever the canditate is...lol after all the years of pain and sorrow they have cause us in my state?(I'm from osun).
maybe u don't interact with people in this region enough to realise there is deep seethed anger by the people against Apc.
in 2023 in sw its going to be apc mainstream supporters against those who will simply vote for who they belive will serve their personal interest most even if the person is igbo..
thats why your 80%ish is laugable...it can never happen again in sw simply because the factors that made it possible in the past is no longer available..
the winning party in sw will be lucky to even have 59%.
that's why I asked u to bookmark my earlier post.
as long as Osinbajo and fashola will contest under Apc they can never have my votes.

I don’t like arguing things like this. God will preserve us all till 2023. We will know who is right or wrong.

Too many arguments like this breeds nothing, coz I believe so much in results. 2023 is not that far.

If Buhari can get more than 55% votes in the SW in the last election, then it will be absurd to claim an Osinbajo will get below 59%. Let’s just leave argument.

One love.

Sammy07:


I wanted to disagree a bit with your comments until I got here.

SW are actually angry with the apc.
But the governors performance in each state will likely pay some part in determining the mindset of the voters.

I'm sure Ekiti, Ondo and ogun will likely go for apc in presidential (governorsfactor)

I'm not sure of Osun and Oyo.

Do you even know the presidential election votes is always different from state election votes most times? Because PDP is ruling Oyo does not imply the Oyo voters will vote PDP in their majority in a presidential election.

If you speak about Tinubu now, I might say some people have some reservation for him as old and won’t likely vote for him but we are talking of Osinbajo or Fashola here.

LegendHero:


The iya in the market in Osogbo don’t even know who Kwakwanso is not alone the baba farming in Ogbomosho. Also, PDP don’t have the machinery, warchest and money to mobilize voters in the SW like the APC and so the people with the highest spend will carry the day.

APC in the center is different from APC within states. The voters in Ekiti have seen the wonders by Fayemi while those of Ondo have seen what Akeredolu can do. They won’t be blinded by sentiments of a Buhari incompetence against an Osinbajo or Fashola which they have learnt to love.

I don't think honestly u live in Sw at the moment.lol
pdp does not have those yet last general elections shows pdp closing a huge gap including a state where mr Atiku did not even campaign(ogun)
see bro..in 2023 in Sw both apc and pdp irrespective of the candidates will contest for every single votes...
the dress rehearsal for 2023 is what happened in 2019 in sw.
can bet its either u don't interact much physically offline(apart from nl) or u are not even in Sw ATM.
lol

LegendHero:


I don’t like arguing things like this. God will preserve us all till 2023. We will know who is right or wrong.

Too many arguments like this breeds nothing, coz I believe so much in results. 2023 is not that far.

If Buhari can get more than 55% votes in the SW in the last election, then it will be absurd to claim an Osinbajo will get below 59%. Let’s just leave argument.

One love.

Alright.Amen

LegendHero:


The iya in the market in Osogbo don’t even know who Kwakwanso is not alone the baba farming in Ogbomosho. Also, PDP don’t have the machinery, warchest and money to mobilize voters in the SW like the APC and so the people with the highest spend will carry the day.

APC in the center is different from APC within states. The voters in Ekiti have seen the wonders by Fayemi while those of Ondo have seen what Akeredolu can do. They won’t be blinded by sentiments of a Buhari incompetence against an Osinbajo or Fashola which they have learnt to love.

The bolded will be very crucial,its a big advantage pdp does not have otuekong.
I talked of this before 2019 polls that states like zamfara,kebbi,yobe and borno and niger where pdp have little or no presence will hurt them.same with their funding ability.in 2015,tinubu and amaechi organized the financing of the polls along with others but pdp left everything to gej to handle and some funds were misused.look at the campaign system where apc uses professionals while pdp used dino.atiku bore the cost almost alone while buhari in 2015 spent nothing and in 2019 some bigwigs supported him.in 2023,apc won't have funding issues,pdp will have.
States like kebbi,niger,yobe and borno where pdp are weak and have no structure will be where apc will get inflated votes to bury pdp.
States like rivers,aks ,delta and anambra where pdp usually get votes,apc have penetrated and will match pdp thereby rendering their votes irrelevant.only enugu is where pdp can try.the elections will be tight but these few states are where the difference will be.i didnt even add kano and katsina or bauchi

senatordave1:

Ayade will be forced to respect it

You think so?

senatordave1:

I know all these things ufan mi.i know even more than you but lets leave that.that the north is not as powerful as we claim is why apc will likely win the absence of buhari.majority of the christian northerners are now pro south and will vote a southernet moreso osibanjo against a northerner from pdp to spite the core north.
Even in the core north,many are still loyal to buhari.a narrow win in the north and a narrow win in the south or a narrow lose is the best cade scenario

The north, will bring out a northern Christian from north east or middle belt and they will support him,forget about the division o,north loves themselves alot

senatordave1:

I don't know much about lado to be honest but rigging nd changing result sheets is not a new thing.it is common in all parts of nigeria and with all politicians.it is why apc still hold the aces in 2023

APC won elections because the riggers in PDP are with APC and the flaw electoral laws,APC must start working and win the hearts of the populace it governs,so that they will be supported

senatordave1:

Apc is getting stronger in the ss,se and will get more votes in 2023.you saw the votes in bsyelsa.pdp may likely lose rivers.if udom is not careful,he may lose akwa ibom.

You have started again with Akwa Ibom. Continue!

You feel PDP is just sitting down waiting for APC to put them in extinction just the way PDP, the results from the last election should have thought you something.
Come 2023, PDP will win more states and the centre because the people have seen PDP is better.

senatordave1:

Yes i underestimate them when i need to.i know their capacity and also feel the pulse of the voters during elections.pdp will still win delta,abia,ebonyi,enugu,crs,taraba in 2023 whether they perform or not because of the electoral demography except there's a major shift,a miraculous one.
Apc will take lagos,ogun,ekiti,sokoto,zamfara,kebbi,jigawa,kaduna,borno,yobe,gombe,bayelsa,kogi,niger,nasarawa,kwara.kano,bauchi,adamawa,benue,plateau,oyo,osun,rivers will be 50 50.ill not talk about katsina, and edo.if aketi wins the primaries,he should win.

You are wrong lots of forces are aligning and fighting against APC
1.Adamawa will remain PDP,main remain is the other ethnic groups don't want any Fulani man to smell the seat of power
2.Benue,pdp wins it cause the T.I.V,will keep zoning it amongst themselfs cause they don't trust the idomas or igede ,
3.Plateau,will go to PDP due to the romance lalong have with the Hausa/Fulani populace,the beroms are angry
4.Rivers might go to APC,if PDP foolishly give upland man the ticket instead of the riverine man
5. APC will retain gombe,causenthe Hausa man isntrying but he should be watchful of any upcoming Fulani candidate
5.APC/Apga will win abia,cause the electorates there are crying and will vent their anger on PDP by in opposition,but the oppositions needs to form an alliance

otuekong1:

You are wrong lots of forces are aligning and fighting against APC
1.Adamawa will remain PDP,main remain is the other ethnic groups don't want any Fulani man to smell the seat of power
2.Benue,pdp wins it cause the T.I.V,will keep zoning it amongst themselfs cause they don't trust the idomas or igede ,
3.Plateau,will go to PDP due to the romance lalong have with the Hausa/Fulani populace,the beroms are angry
4.Rivers might go to APC,if PDP foolishly give upland man the ticket instead of the riverine man
5. APC will retain gombe,causenthe Hausa man isntrying but he should be watchful of any upcoming Fulani candidate
5.APC/Apga will win abia,cause the electorates there are crying and will vent their anger on PDP by in opposition,but the oppositions needs to form an alliance

1 adamawa is 50 50.bindowo lost narrowly because of internal division and sabotage in apc plus he was not very popular,same reason apc lost bauchi.aisha buhari wanted her brother to win the primaries and he was winning till the last minute before the sgf mustapha changed everything which irked Aisha and most apc candidates.his loss was a fait accompli.apc men worked against him.he's not a fulani as widely believed.thereford in 2023,it will be 50 50.adamawa has never been an easy or straight place to win.
2 the tivs are even more apc than pdp.in 2015 and 2019,buhari won tiv votes.as you said they usually. zone power between zone a and zone b.the apc candidate jime and ortom were all from zone b and the zone a people want power back in 2023 hence they massively voted pdp inspite of the fact that ortom is a failure.
In 2023 if apc zone power to zone a,pdp will gave no hiding.ortom's failings will be remembered and will get the suswam Treatment of 2015.again,apc is getting gradually stronger Than pdp im zone c.but ill still leave it at 50 50

3 plateau will still likely go to apc,the demography favors apc.if they hated lalong,they would have voted him out.plateu has witnessed more peace under lalong than any other governor incase you have a short memory.
Plateau central is slightly apc while plateau south is clearly apc.only plateau north is pdp.both partiez will zone to plateau central.apc control kanam,mangu and kamke.pdp will win pankshin and bokkos.because of the massive votes kanam usually gives apc,i see them getting the ticket.
In plateau north pdp will as usual take jos south,barakin ladi and riyom and bassa.apc will take jos north and east.apc will win with massive votes from wase and shendam in plateau south.pdp will narrowly take langtsng while apc retains mikang and quanpan.

4 i agree with gombe but not because of tribal reasons.
5 you know my stance on abia.go and study obingwa

senatordave1:

1 adamawa is 50 50.bindowo lost narrowly because of internal division and sabotage in apc plus he was not very popular,same reason apc lost bauchi.aisha buhari wanted her brother to win the primaries and he was winning till the last minute before the sgf mustapha changed everything which irked Aisha and most apc candidates.his loss was a fait accompli.apc men worked against him.he's not a fulani as widely believed.thereford in 2023,it will be 50 50.adamawa has never been an easy or straight place to win.
2 the tivs are even more apc than pdp.in 2015 and 2019,buhari won tiv votes.as you said they usually. zone power between zone a and zone b.the apc candidate jime and ortom were all from zone b and the zone a people want power back in 2023 hence they massively voted pdp inspite of the fact that ortom is a failure.
In 2023 if apc zone power to zone a,pdp will gave no hiding.ortom's failings will be remembered and will get the suswam Treatment of 2015.again,apc is getting gradually stronger Than pdp im zone c.but ill still leave it at 50 50

3 plateau will still likely go to apc,the demography favors apc.if they hated lalong,they would have voted him out.plateu has witnessed more peace under lalong than any other governor incase you have a short memory.
Plateau central is slightly apc while plateau south is clearly apc.only plateau north is pdp.both partiez will zone to plateau central.apc control kanam,mangu and kamke.pdp will win pankshin and bokkos.because of the massive votes kanam usually gives apc,i see them getting the ticket.
In plateau north pdp will as usual take jos south,barakin ladi and riyom and bassa.apc will take jos north and east.apc will win with massive votes from wase and shendam in plateau south.pdp will narrowly take langtsng while apc retains mikang and quanpan.

4 i agree with gombe but not because of tribal reasons.
5 you know my stance on abia.go and study obingwa

* Try to know the reality on ground,Jo's north is owned by berom but lots of hausa!/Fulani and other ethnic groups resides there,make I tell you laslas,election no go hold in Hausa dominated neighbourhood,Lalong messed things,imagine him appointing a Fulani man as caretaker chairman of Jo's north
Better still try to revisit the local government election there,despite the massive riggings PDP won virtually all,APC and lalong just did abbracatabra

2Benue,is PDP stronghold(idoma)/but the votes in T.IV land of gboko,katsina ala,dwarfs that of otukpo,ugbokolo,ogbadigbo
Mind you,the open grazing law alone is what made Benue people to vote PDP
3..try to learn on the politics of Adamawa,the people there don't want any Fulani man to occupy government land in yola,but their problems is just that there is no cohesion
Mind you Fintiri,is trying to carry other ethnic groups along
Forget about Babachir,Boss,those men are secretly supporting non Fulani candidates
,*** All my points are because ,I interact with indegenes of the mentioned states and I know what is currently happening there and have been there myself

senatordave1:

1 adamawa is 50 50.bindowo lost narrowly because of internal division and sabotage in apc plus he was not very popular,same reason apc lost bauchi.aisha buhari wanted her brother to win the primaries and he was winning till the last minute before the sgf mustapha changed everything which irked Aisha and most apc candidates.his loss was a fait accompli.apc men worked against him.he's not a fulani as widely believed.thereford in 2023,it will be 50 50.adamawa has never been an easy or straight place to win.
2 the tivs are even more apc than pdp.in 2015 and 2019,buhari won tiv votes.as you said they usually. zone power between zone a and zone b.the apc candidate jime and ortom were all from zone b and the zone a people want power back in 2023 hence they massively voted pdp inspite of the fact that ortom is a failure.
In 2023 if apc zone power to zone a,pdp will gave no hiding.ortom's failings will be remembered and will get the suswam Treatment of 2015.again,apc is getting gradually stronger Than pdp im zone c.but ill still leave it at 50 50

3 plateau will still likely go to apc,the demography favors apc.if they hated lalong,they would have voted him out.plateu has witnessed more peace under lalong than any other governor incase you have a short memory.
Plateau central is slightly apc while plateau south is clearly apc.only plateau north is pdp.both partiez will zone to plateau central.apc control kanam,mangu and kamke.pdp will win pankshin and bokkos.because of the massive votes kanam usually gives apc,i see them getting the ticket.
In plateau north pdp will as usual take jos south,barakin ladi and riyom and bassa.apc will take jos north and east.apc will win with massive votes from wase and shendam in plateau south.pdp will narrowly take langtsng while apc retains mikang and quanpan.

4 i agree with gombe but not because of tribal reasons.
5 you know my stance on abia.go and study obingwa

Have you asked yourself how APC rigged Ankpa in kogi last guber election?
That's the formulae APC/apga will use on obingwa

otuekong1:

Have you asked yourself how APC rigged Ankpa in kogi last guber election?
That's the formulae APC/apga will use on obingwa

Am not sure apc have the personnel in abia to disturb pdp.most ngwa people are in pdp.it will take a major upheaval from pdp to make that happen either from ikpeazu,t.a orji or abaribe camps.again,osisioma and isialangwa can also cause damage

senatordave1:

Am not sure apc have the personnel in abia to disturb pdp.most ngwa people are in pdp.it will take a major upheaval from pdp to make that happen either from ikpeazu,t.a orji or abaribe camps.again,osisioma and isialangwa can also cause damage

The truth is ,the opposition have mapped out how to take abia and the abians are tired of the PDP misrule,never under estimate the opposition
The opposition might work with ipob

otuekong1:

* Try to know the reality on ground,Jo's north is owned by berom but lots of hausa!/Fulani and other ethnic groups resides there,make I tell you laslas,election no go hold in Hausa dominated neighbourhood,Lalong messed things,imagine him appointing a Fulani man as caretaker chairman of Jo's north
Better still try to revisit the local government election there,despite the massive riggings PDP won virtually all,APC and lalong just did abbracatabra

2Benue,is PDP stronghold(idoma)/but the votes in T.IV land of gboko,katsina ala,dwarfs that of otukpo,ugbokolo,ogbadigbo
Mind you,the open grazing law alone is what made Benue people to vote PDP
3..try to learn on the politics of Adamawa,the people there don't want any Fulani man to occupy government land in yola,but their problems is just that there is no cohesion
Mind you Fintiri,is trying to carry other ethnic groups along
Forget about Babachir,Boss,those men are secretly supporting non Fulani candidates
,*** All my points are because ,I interact with indegenes of the mentioned states and I know what is currently happening there and have been there myself

Buhari and his party right from 2011 have won jos north.though the berom are the indigenes,the hausas are the majority,there is nothing that can be done there.it is only jos south pdp will win.

In 2023,ortom will not have what to use to deceive tivs to vote his candidate so its 50 50.

From what you have said,adamawa is 50 50.right from 1999,the elections have been closely fought and winning margin is narrow.any governor that wins with less than 50k votes will always have problem winning a 2nd term.i can cite countless instances.lets leave it at 50 50

senatordave1:

Must they rig? Can't you see that Nigerians slightly prefer them to pdp

Which Nigerians? Mtweeee

senatordave1:

Buhari and his party right from 2011 have won jos north.though the berom are the indigenes,the hausas are the majority,there is nothing that can be done there.it is only jos south pdp will win.

Hausa's majority in Jo's north?
Why didn't they take the senatorial ticket,
Abeg go relax

otuekong1:

Hausa's majority in Jo's north?
Why didn't they take the senatorial ticket,
Abeg go relax

Why are you like this na? Am enjoying this debate with you,dont spoil it please.i hope your not confusing jos north or jos city to be the only lgas in plateau.there are six lgas which are josh north,east and south,riyom,barakin ladi and bassa.apc usually wins jos north and east.east has a small voting population.pdp usually wins the remaining four lgas so its not possible for apc to win the senatorial zone.but they usually win jos north/bassa federal constituency.
Everyone in jos knows that jos north is muslim hausa fulani dominated while jos south is Christian dominated.apc won the other two senate seats in plateau

otuekong1:

The truth is ,the opposition have mapped out how to take abia and the abians are tired of the PDP misrule,never under estimate the opposition
The opposition might work with ipob

Though mentioning ipob is funny and petty but you are right.if they can unite or if nnamdi kanu orders the people to boys out pdp,they will.the only person upon listen to is ouk and he's prisoncapped.the other person is abaribe who is in pdp.
The opposition is weak and united without ouk except otti and ogah can coalesce.i believe you heard rumors that ogah is a stooge of pdp

senatordave1:

Why are you like this na? Am enjoying this debate with you,dont spoil it please.i hope your not confusing jos north or jos city to be the only lgas in plateau.there are six lgas which are josh north,east and south,riyom,barakin ladi and bassa.apc usually wins jos north and east.east has a small voting population.pdp usually wins the remaining four lgas so its not possible for apc to win the senatorial zone.but they usually win jos north/bassa federal constituency.
Everyone in jos knows that jos north is muslim hausa fulani dominated while jos south is Christian dominated.apc won the other two senate seats in plateau

Nope,you are confusing yourself,Jo's north house the state capital and it also serves as the commercial capital, but its wrong if you say that the Hausa/Fulani population is far more than the indigenous(berom,and other plateaus indegeous tribes

otuekong1:

Nope,you are confusing yourself,Jo's north house the state capital and it also serves as the commercial capital, but its wrong if you say that the Hausa/Fulani population is far more than the indigenous(berom,and other plateaus indegeous tribes

It is so actually or how come apc always wins there? Are you not aware that in most state capitals in Nigeria,settlers outnumber the indigenes? Are efiks not minority in calabar? Are igbos not more than ikwerres in ph? How many original lagosians can you find in lagos? How come pdp wins jos south

senatordave1:

It is so actually or how come apc always wins there? Are you not aware that in most state capitals in Nigeria,settlers outnumber the indigenes? Are efiks not minority in calabar? Are igbos not more than ikwerres in ph? How many original lagosians can you find in lagos? How come pdp wins jos south

But with indigenous candidate

senatordave1:

It is so actually or how come apc always wins there? Are you not aware that in most state capitals in Nigeria,settlers outnumber the indigenes? Are efiks not minority in calabar? Are igbos not more than ikwerres in ph? How many original lagosians can you find in lagos? How come pdp wins jos south

You earlier said Hausa/Fulani,not settlers as a whole

otuekong1:

You earlier said Hausa/Fulani,not settlers as a whole

Among those settlers,hausa fulanis ofcourse must be number one like in most cities of the north

senatordave1:

Among those settlers,hausa fulanis ofcourse must be number one like in most cities of the north

So,to you Hausa/Fulani that are into menial jobs and cattle rearing are more than the indigenous one
Why can't the Hausa/Fulani sponsor their candidate and vote for him wholly?
And let's see if they will win

otuekong1:

So,to you Hausa/Fulani that are into menial jobs and cattle rearing are more than the indigenous one
Why can't the Hausa/Fulani sponsor their candidate and vote for him wholly?
And let's see if they will win

I dont understand you oh.you want to compare beroms to a majority tribe or what? Didnt the sponsor haruna maitala the reps member who won? How can they sponsor candidates when the party structure is skewed against them that their candidates cant win primaries.ibibios outnumber efiks in calabar by 10-1 but ibibios cannot contest and win any election except sponsored and supported by the efiks

senatordave1:

I dont understand you oh.you want to compare beroms to a majority tribe or what? Didnt the sponsor haruna maitala the reps member who won? How can they sponsor candidates when the party structure is skewed against them that their candidates cant win primaries.ibibios outnumber efiks in calabar by 10-1 but ibibios cannot contest and win any election except sponsored and supported by the efiks

Hmmmm,funny you,Let them contest under any party if they are majority as you say

otuekong1:

Hmmmm,funny you,Let them contest under any party if they are majority as you say

They have been making sure apc wins jos north,that is enough.the summary is that apc will still retain plateau in 2023

senatordave1:

How? Why didnt they win rivers and edo im presidential polls? Are you telling me that you didnt notice the resolve of the people to vote against dickson's candidate

the only difference between rivers and bayelsa is WIKE

Jostoman:
the only difference between rivers and bayelsa is WIKE

look at what happened to Dino melaye in kogi state because he said he would never be part of rubber stamp Senate, lawan and his gang plan against him because they see him as an obstacle to them.

senatordave1:

Must they rig? Can't you see that Nigerians slightly prefer them to pdp

for 2015 election i will say yes, but for 2019 capital no because PDP won that election.