fstranger3:

Well, on behalf all Yorubas, both in Nigeria and in the diaspora, I say Thank you. Now, lets do it again! We need to make sure that another Yoruba man lives in  the Aguda House for the next 8 yrs. We will repay the gesture in year, Never!

um, [b]gay[/b]monster3,

I dont think the guy wearing the green halloween costume in your link spent 8yrs in office let alone a day.

But seriously when did Nigerians start voting along religious line. Who the Fck says 70% of yorubas will not vote GEJ. What does Ribadu or Buhari mean to yorubas that will make them vote for this two people. I see a political embarrassment. Ribadu will be sooo disgraced in the coming polls that next time he won't dare contest alongside an unpopular candidate.

Chyz*:

Lets face it, GJ will get most votes in the SW, if not most, then half. Everyone in the SW is not yoruba, and every yoruba isn't going to vote buhari. Also igbos voted en-masse in NW(so unless they rig buhari in, which i suspect they will, he's going to have a hard time).

I know every one in the SW is not Yoruba, but everyone in the SE is Igbo. Bravo! Great thinking.

And yeah Igbos vote enmasse in The NW while the Hausas in the SE dont vote at all

Chyz*:

Lets face it, GJ will get most votes in the SW, if not most, then half. Everyone in the SW is not yoruba, and every yoruba isn't going to vote buhari. Also igbos voted en-masse in NW(so unless they rig buhari in, which i suspect they will, he's going to have a hard time).

You are very correct my brother but there is always that tendency to tow the path of your host community so that you will not be viewed as opposing your host.

afam4eva:

But seriously when did Nigerians start voting along religious line. Who the Fck says 70% of yorubas will not vote GEJ. What does Ribadu or Buhari mean to yorubas that will make them vote for this two people. I see a political embarrassment. Ribadu will be sooo disgraced in the coming polls that next time he won't dare contest alongside an unpopular candidate.

Just keep your opinion of other people to your silly self okay

fstranger3:

I know every one in the SW is not Yoruba, but everyone in the SE is Igbo. Bravo! Great thinking.

And yeah Igbos vote enmasse in The NW while the Hausas in the SE dont vote at all

The hausas in Igboland can't read(nothing is written in arabic,hausa,or fulani ), write, not to talk of speak basic english. The yorubas are gatemen in SE, few store owners(very few).

Chyz*:

The hausas in Igboland can't read(nothing is written in arabic,hausa,or fulani ), write, not to talk of speak basic english. The yorubas are gatemen in SE, few store owners(very few).

I like your analyses. perhaps that is why the illiterate Hausas slaughter your people like sallah cow, and to boot they make your girls suck their manliness for 50 naira at nights.

Irrespective, shouldnt you be ashamed that with your education and supposed majority status, you are still being lord over by the Illiterate almanjiri, and what do you have to show for it, yeah, whining, and more whining and when they deny you political power, you whine some more and then blame the Yoruba gateman for all your woes.

puccy much?

fstranger3:

I like your analyses. perhaps that is why the illiterate Hausas slaughter your people like sallah cow, and to boot they make your girls suck their manliness for 50 naira at nights.

Irrespective, shouldnt you be ashamed that with your education and supposed majority status, you are still being lord over by the Illiterate almanjiri, and what do you have to show for it, yeah, whining, and more whining and when they deny you political power, you whine some more and then blame the Yoruba gateman for all your woes.

puccy much?

O how i love the smell of a mad and frustrated Yoruba man.Like a breath of fresh air,lol.

Lets not get personal here!

I find it laughable that anyone would propose an ibo block vote for anything when history has shown there is no such thing as an ibo consensus.

I foresee Emeka in Katsina publicly lining up behind CPC and voting Buhari just to guarantee that his aboki neighbours come back to buy his goods after elections!!! 

soldee:

Lets not get personal here!

I find it laughable that anyone would propose an ibo block vote for anything when history has shown there is no such thing as an ibo consensus.

I foresee Emeka in Katsina publicly lining up behind CPC and voting Buhari just to guarantee that his aboki neighbours come back to buy his goods after elections!!! 

And then Emeka will use his other two voters cards to block that Buhari vote and add to GEJ.

A lot of things about Nigeria puzzle me. Played around with stuff, did some regressions, not completely sure of things. . . going to look at things more closely tomorrow.

Here is a plot of 2011 voters registered divided by 2006 population: http://i55.tinypic.com/2efuvkx.jpg

I'm suspicious of anything larger than 53% for voters divided by 2006 pop, and anything below 35%. Take Lagos for example. Seems to me that either:

A) Lagos voters are by far the most active in Nigeria
B) Heavy voting fraud this last cycle in Lagos
C) Pop badly underestimated by 2006 census.

FCT is probably excusable, due to high pop growth. The rest are question marks. Borno especially. Third highest voting rate in all of Nigeria relative to 2006 census, 1.75 standard deviations above the mean? I don't know, seems odd.

Otoh, I don't see how it is possible for Ekiti, Bayelsa, and Niger to have produced such low voter registration #s relative to population unless:
A) Very low voter activity
B) Pop overestimated/fraudulently calculated in the 2006 census

It is starting to make sense to me now that Ekiti is less populated than believed. GDP/capita #s using official #s would have made it one of the poorest states in all of Nigeria. And I don't think Ekiti is that much poorer than Osun overall, tbh. At least from what I've seen.

I'm starting to believe that Niger State (and the middle belt more generally) is largely empty.

I must say though, Nigeria confuses the hell out of me. . . very strange country.

Here is a spreadsheet of data tabulated so far. Let me know if I made any typos/errors: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsNUaGBnBF1KdE1NSl9CcjV1aXd3UF82YlFaZzlLc0E&hl=en&authkey=CPLfu9oD#gid=1

There's something basically wrong with the NW data.

From my estimate, 11,620,699 Yorubas and 11,166,268 Igbos registered but about 19,000,000 Hausa/Fulani registered.

It means we have 1 major group, Hausa/Fulani, and 2 semi-Major groups, Yoruba and Igbo, and minor groups.

Obiagu1:

There's something basically wrong with the NW data.

From my estimate, 11,620,699 Yorubas and 11,166,268 Igbos registered but about 19,000,000 Hausa/Fulani registered.

It means we have 1 major group, Hausa/Fulani, and 2 semi-Major groups, Yoruba and Igbo, and minor groups.

And where did you get your numbers from?

You Ibos try to deceive una sef too much

So you think Ibos and Yorubas are on par? You are sorely misguided

Another subject of interest is that the voter population of NW is 19million while combined voter population of SE and SW is 21million.

@ eku_bear, good job.

I can state that, from your first chart, any state with figure above 0.5 inflated their voting record and anyone with 0.4 and below inflated their population.

Lagos and Abuja are exceptions because they draw people from every part of the country, but Nasarawa, walahi  

Abagworo:

Another subject of interest is that the voter population of NW is 19million while combined voter population of SE and SW is 21million.

SW and SE is like Oil and water they never mix

SE has always acted coyly towards the SW and have never voted for a Yoruba candidate.

The reason Olu Falae lost was because the SE refused to go along with the SW, so forget that permutation

fstranger3:

And where did you get your numbers from?

You Ibos try to deceive una sef too much

So you think Ibos and Yorubas are on par? You are sorely misguided

something is definitely wrong with the estimate or the estimator

Obiagu1:

@ eku_bear, good job.

I can state that, from your first chart, any state with figure above 0.5 inflated their voting record and anyone with 0.4 and below inflated their population.

Lagos and Abuja are exceptions because they draw people from every part of the country, but Nasarawa, walahi  

I'll incorporate this hypothesis of yours into the model. It seems reasonable to me.

@ fstranger3 you are the dumbest motherfucker alive man, you know less about nigeria and its tribe

yamtas335:

@ fstranger3 you are the dumbest naughty person alive man, you know less about nigeria and its tribe

Another angry Igbo man

Truth hurts, init?

dumb Bleep i am not igbo i am from the north nit wit, all of you here are just hating on each other insulting ppls tribes and come out on TV and sing one Nigeria damn hypocrites, with these comments Nigeria will be portioned years to come

yamtas335:

dumb bleep i am not igbo i am from the north nit wit,  all of you here are just hating on each other insulting ppls tribes and come out on TV and sing one Nigeria damn hypocrites, with these comments Nigeria will be portioned years to come 

When was the last time you saw me on TV singing one Nigeria? Are you OK?

You seem to have some deep seated hatred for me, anyway, I like it when people hate me. I will always speak the truth. Now run and go tend to your cattle. You illiterate aboki

apoti:

something is definitely wrong with the estimate or the estimator

There's nothing wrong with my estimate. It is an estimate and no one is certain.
I assumed 100% for each state except where it is obvious. + and - will cancel out in other regions they are present.

Yoruba:
100% SW minus Lagos
50% Lagos
40% Kwara

Igbo:
100% SE
30% Lagos
70% Rivers
30% Delta

Hausa/Fulani:
100% NW (It's already staggering so I didn't bother with other states)

It is subject to debate.

^^^

You are highly highly stupid

@ fstranger3 hahahahahahahaha, fine i am illiterate, but at least i am better than an illiterate that went to school and you sound like one, now let me break it down for you dunce, i said you go on TV and sing one nigeria, literally that was a metaphor, i meant that most ppl that sing songs of such are mostly yorubas and igbos look at the musicians, see it dummy? ok i don't technically mean you in particular, now i should suppose you went to school but its unfortunate you can't break words down, -sigh- so sad to go to school and still be a dummy

fstranger3:

The reason Olu Falae lost was because the SE refused to go along with the SW, so forget that permutation

And who told you that the results reflected the people's wish?Most of Nigeria's past election was based on selection and subsequent making up of figures just to justify the selection.

.

Voting has always been in line with the wishes of the host community.

If not how come the voting pattern of Lagos state with the huge Ibo population has always been pro SW. We are yet to even get an Ibo deputy governor.

The NW might not be homogenously Hausa Fulani. Consider places like Kaduna, Niger

SW and SE is like Oil and water they never mix

SE has always acted coyly towards the SW and have never voted for a Yoruba candidate.

The reason Olu Falae lost was because the SE refused to go along with the SW, so forget that permutation
Moronic post: HOW ABOUT OBJ AND ABIOLA?

The SE didnt vote Abiola too

You guys are ignoring a vital stats. a good deal of those in the SS are Ibos. Consider Rivers and Delta states. Also they are in all states, just as the SW people. I think for anybody to win, they must have the SE votes.

I can't see Ribadu doing this, with virtually no chance in the SE,SS & a great part of the N.

He will even be more woeful than Atiku. This election seems a predetermined conclusion. It was a foolish move by Ribadu and I am sure deep down the souls of the ACN folks, they know this. He surely wants to be an 'also ran'

Fat chance

Abagworo:

And who told you that the results reflected the people's wish?Most of Nigeria's past election was based on selection and subsequent making up of figures just to justify the selection.

adconline:


Moronic post: HOW ABOUT OBJ AND ABIOLA?

My post was directed at Abagworo who was thinking of a SE/SW alliance. My point is that SE and SW have never voted in congruence.

Below is the result from the 1999 election:

http://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-1999.html