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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Business / Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? (28677 Views)
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Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by naijaking1: 10:10pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
jamalah: jamalah for president 2015 I mean it, because I have not met many Nairalanders as smart of you. I mean Igbo, Hausa, Yoruba, Edo, Tiv, Ijaw, whatever, you're the smartest. Your analysis of events is simply out of this World. Good job, Sir |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by olaolabiy: 10:11pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
fROM THE cOLUMBIA uNIVERSITY Read this: http://cgt.columbia.edu/files/papers/CGT_Macroeconomic_UncertaintyFV.pdf |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by ebogentle(m): 10:12pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
Quote from: manny4life on Today at 09:39:06 PM @Betathings You have said it all in a way I never could have since I am no economist. Thanks for this. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by ektbear: 10:13pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
I don't see how risk management is macroeconomics or even microeconomics? Well, let me be more clear. I've seen value-at-risk and understand the concept and math behind it. But if the rest of risk management looks similar to this, it isn't really economics. It is a tool for banks to understand the riskiness of assets. But not pure micro or macro like I studied in high school. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by manny4life(m): 10:15pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
ebogentle: I wouldn't say they were bad debts because, I mean this mortgage were still appearing on their balance sheet as asset but not as current assets. Suffice to say that, at the point when they entered into these securities contracts such as derivatives (futures, options and swaps), they entered when the economy was good. They entered on the obligation that you the mortgage holder will fulfill your part of the mortgage contract. Due to the reason on how these are traded, the SEC did not live up to its expectation to oversee strong oversight, traders were defrauding investors and that's what left the bank ope and sore. Anyone wanting me to delve into this more further, I will be more than happy to. I am of the opinion that CBN should bail these banks out, at the same time regulate them NOT make decisions for them.For instance, before you push money into the system,you have to check what is the inflation rate, keep in mind you have to adjust -/+ 1 error rate, now that you have inflation rate say 16%, what is unemployment rate say 8%, and you have $100billion in circulation, keep in mind that if you gonna bail out banks with $3billion, that is LOAN t the banks that will be paid back, however, $3billion is 3% of the money in circulation putting inflation at about 19% but what happens to unemployment, that spirals automatically to 11% as well. Therefore, this bring me to my point, CBN shouldn't make decisions for them, if he wanted to bail them, that should be as a last resort, but he did not let them recapitalize instead he printed more money into circulation. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by Katsumoto: 10:17pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
ola olabiy: Ogbeni, You are just being pedantic at the moment jo. Bernanke, who used Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz work on the great depression as a basis for many works and books did not be-labour the importance of risk management. A beg make I hear word. How many books did Bernanke or any other economist write on risk management in macro-economics? ekt_bear: You are almost correct. Some are just trying to make it more important that it really is. Its like lecturing a bank teller on how to count money. Its a given. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by olaolabiy: 10:19pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
Risk management is a MAJOR oversight of any central bank pROVE ME WRONG AND I WILL LET YOU KNOW |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by olaolabiy: 10:20pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
Katsumoto: Every aspect of macroeconomics is full of risk, mate |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by ebogentle(m): 10:23pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
@Manny4life and @Katsumoto. I will say no more from here since economics is not my forte. However I am learning a lot so please keep dem posts coming. ciao!! |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by Katsumoto: 10:23pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
ola olabiy: I don't want to keep gragging this point; so I will ask a pertinent question. Is SLS an expert on macro-economic Risk Management? Do you think Risk Management in a Bank is the same as Risk Management in a Central Bank? ola olabiy: Risk is in everything but you are making it more important than it really is. If you know how to manage risk in a factory, can you manage risk in a school? |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by manny4life(m): 10:24pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
ola olabiy: Seriously? Ok start naming them please. BetaThings: Look you guys are getting me all WRONG. I wasn't talking about the banks, like I said risk isn't special to banks, risk is nothing but assuming decisions, period. When regulations were designed for banks, RISK did NOT top their priority. While Risk is important, it's decision based approach that determine how much risk you assume. Besides, like I said and still maintain, Risk isn't a so-special factor in a business be it banking or whatever. I think a banking CEO will look more into his Cash-flow, than he will look at risk. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by manny4life(m): 10:25pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
ola olabiy: Start naming what aspects in economics is full of risk? Is it inflation? Unemployment? Price control? Trade? Which is it and please give concepts and how it affect it because I really want to know. ebogentle: Hey it's cool, please feel free to ask anything, no one is here to shut u down. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by BetaThings: 10:28pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
naijaking1: You had better be sure of who you are praising. Jamalah is obsessed with Sanusi and he is ready to lie to back it up. I noticed that a long time ago We all know that when Shamsudeen was Finance Minister Remi Babalola (from Oyo State) was Minister of State. But Jamalah has turned Babalola into a Kano indigene jamalah: |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by olaolabiy: 10:29pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
Katsumoto: So, where did others before him get their experience in macroeconomics. I can see you don't intend to talk about risk management again. A CBN governor is meant to be in control of micro and macro environment of it. And, risk mgt is a major aspect. Prove me wrong or I will quote others sources |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by ebogentle(m): 10:31pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
If you know how to manage risk in a factory, can you manage risk in a school?@Katsumoto Please ask this question again but restrict it to financial risk only. @manny4life I guess what some of us are saying is that if the recent past has taught us anything, it is that risk should become more important than it currently is. I wont stretch as far as to say the most important. But certainly more important that it is now. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by olaolabiy: 10:31pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
Recession, economic downturn ^^^Mannylife |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by olaolabiy: 10:32pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
^^gdp, etc |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by olaolabiy: 10:35pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
What you guys don't know is that what banks do have major effects on macroeconomic performance of any economy. So do you think retail/investment banks are not involved? |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by BetaThings: 10:36pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
manny4life: I still maintain that risk management is special in banking. Banks are heavily exposed to risks. All those models used to price those exotic products are targeted at quantification of risks. That is why they have more PhDs in physics on Wall Street than elsewhere these days Which industry is exposed to risks that insurance companies cannot insure? Only banks. and I am not even sure that the insurance companies even really understand these risks. Otherwise AIG would not have been fallen by amongst others its CDS. A banking CEO looks narrowly at nominal cashflow at his own peril. He must have a statement of risk adjusted cashflow and VAR |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by manny4life(m): 10:38pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
ola olabiy: ola olabiy: Dude what school again did you study this your economics from? Since when did recession and economic downturn become macroeconomic components? Now let me teach you Macro 101, recession is NOT a macroeconomic component, macroeconomic components like price control, inflation and unemployment leads to recession and economic downturn. ebogentle: Hey I agree with you but most financiers or investors think differently on a curved pattern; like I've always maintained, risk nothing but based on decision approach, just like MS Excel, plug in different "what-if" scenarios and boom it will generate result to determine what your risk is if certain events occurs.Most advanced risk models use the same but advanced appraoch but the same concept. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by VoodooDoll(m): 10:40pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
So, marks out of 10, where 1 is poor and 10 is good. - Inflation rate (2009:11.1%, 2011: 13%) - Foreign Exchange Management USD/Naira (2009: N147, 2011: N156) - Capital formation (No data) But anecdotal evidence suggests this has worsened as banks balance sheets have taken a beating. Next year's daily cash limit is expected to cause some concerns. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by olaolabiy: 10:41pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
manny4life: Egbami oooo Kats please help your mate. What is the difference between recession and economic downturn? I am shocked |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by manny4life(m): 10:44pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
BetaThings: Well people have different thoughts and opinions; IMO, banks are not heavily exposed to risk not if they decide to assume one. A bank is not obliged or obligated to trade investment, they are not forced to do the thing they do because it's decision based, You're right Wall Street "investment banks" have Quants, not an average Wachovia retail or commercial banking. Again, AIG just like other companies engaged in series of untangled business, just because AIG did does not mean other insurers did as well. Well I guess people have different opinionated thoughts about risk. Other banks that did not go under is not because they had the best quant, but because they did not want to assume any risk at all. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by olaolabiy: 10:45pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
Just to help you, Mannylife Read this: http://www.colombialink.com/01_INDEX/index_finanzas_eng/recession.html |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by Gbenge77(m): 10:46pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
Sanusi has done creditably well,period. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by BetaThings: 10:47pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
ebogentle: Actually my point. In the past years, whenever central bankers gathered it was to talk about price stability and eulogise deregulation. They are no longer so sanguine about market forces. Financial stability has become a major issue to them Anybody writing about central banking now would have much to say about the topic A central bank gov is supposed to consider price stability as his primary focus, but financial system collapse can make nonsense of that focus And even in Nigeria, the CBN has always added developmental functions to its role Somebody is saying that what is Sanusi dong with Commodities Exchange, but nobody asked how we came about SEC which was also midwived by the CBN as part of its developmental functions |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by olaolabiy: 10:47pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
May be you don't know that recession - if not well managed, leads to depreession which is worse than inflation or deflation |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by manny4life(m): 10:47pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
ola olabiy: Dude, STOP making a fool of yourself, I'm quoting just like you put it out there. An economy goes through four different cycles; boom, recession, slump and recovery. A downturn can be described as from the sloping down of the boom stage towards the upward of recovery even during recovery, there's still slow economic activity. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by OAM4J: 10:48pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
Interesting! Very Interesting thread! I will keep quiet for now, and learn more 1st. Keep it up guys. |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by olaolabiy: 10:51pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
manny4life: I shouldn't make a fool of myself? Well, let me ignore that. But, don't go down that lane again, okay? That is not the best way to wriggle yourself out of a clear mistake. You simply goofed! |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by manny4life(m): 10:51pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
BetaThings: This is my concern, why does Nigeria have to always do things differently? |
Re: Lamido Sanusi's Performance - Brilliant, Over-hyped, Or Mediocre? by BetaThings: 10:52pm On Jul 10, 2011 |
manny4life:Banks take deposits and lend. Even if they do not do things that expose them to market risk, the simple activity of lending engaged in by Wachovia still exposes it to credit risk. Given the size of their balance sheets, it is a huge risk. Besides the interest rate risk can sum up to a tidy sum given the mismatch between assets and liabilities when applied to highly leveraged balance sheet |
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