garfield1:


Theres nothing they can do.pdp has two govs in se and they are anti wike.majority if igbos are with obi.ikpeazu is unpopular and is up against abaribe

Till then

jumper524:
k let me tell you this.
Majority of people including those who don't want Obi would say Obi but truth is if you look well, you'll realize more than 70% of pro Obidient don't have pvc in Abuja.
The parties with structure always have its way.

Ideally but you see this scenario is powered by hunger and need for a change finally the youths are getting it right! Endsars made them realise they can have a say!
Labour party and Peter Obi is the real emilokan

garfield1:
Peter obi will clearly win benue.majority here are Christians and hate anything fulani.obi will have 60%,tinubu 25% atiku 15%.
Obi will win the fct with 40%.tinubu and atiku will share the remaining 60% equally.with plateau being a Christian dominated state,obi might just win depending on where ex gov and ex convict dariye supports.if he supports or joins labour,obi will win plateau.as it stands pdp has no senator in plateau.their only senator istifanus gyang from plateau north has joined labour.therefore plateau north which is mainly berom who are fierce Christians will divide votes.plateau central will go where dariye wants while plateau south save for langtang will go apc.obi should gave 40%,others share 60%..
With Christians making 55% of taraba,obi will do well here.the people are tired of pdp and gov Darius.if gen t.y danjuma supports obi,he might just win but this is not certain....




Cc mynd44
Kahal
Helinues
Asobo1
Kyase
Noethnicity
Naijjj
Coolambience
Casualobserver
Majole
Omenka
Passing shot

. All Northern states! . I said on Nairaland today that LP Obi is viewed in the North as SE voice. There is no way he can win in the north. To prove it if LP uses Obi ,APC uses Kola Abiola And PDP uses Fayose who will win the election? Nobody has answered me even the OBidient people in Nigeria. Thus it's clear that the North will view 2023 election as an election of continued existence and will use possible means to send LP into a polical oblivion.

drlateef:





How can he win? Even in southeast he can’t win. South south he will share with Atiku and Tinubu. Because the Itshekiri and ijaw are for Tinubu. Even Edo people already know the body language of Oba of Benin, that he is for Tinubu. Olu of Warri for Tinubu. Where is Obi going to win? Cross River is APC, Aqwa Ibom for PDP. I just wonder where Obi will catch his votes from.

Cross River is not APC!
The governor made sure APC will loose PDP is taking back cross river very easily
As for presidential election it is common knowledge here both APC and PDP will vote labour party
I dey here and I get eye

garfield1:



Hmmm

One love man, a bunch of 5000+(voters) online gathering shouting on top of their voice and thinking they are stronger than the 100,000+(voters) of people with no urgency of the present timeline and implications of why good governance is needed to migitate more future woes we are likely to face in this country is a fruitless ambition.


Do everything to get most of the 100,000+ people on your side then you can plan changing reality, now the problem is the difference in IQ range of the 5000 vs 100,000 they are trying to convince, you have to take into records what it will take to change opinion of low IQ people which are common among nigerian present voters (100,000) without any incentive or reward for doing what will actually be best for them.

My brother if you do further social engineering analysis on this comment you will see why Nigeria has remained the same or worse since independence, majority decide who rule, not the few educated and enlightened youth online shouting here and there; They have no control over ordinary almajiri opinion on who to vote and guess what? A PHD student youth vote and one almajri is counted as 1 each in current nigerian electoral law System. The movement of social media is highly ineffective Unlike the western country that use it to achieve various objective of theirs.

Nigeria is still a 4th world country and anybody interested in ruling must apply 4th world social psychological approach that is required to get the desired result. If Obi camp fail to get these into their various social engineering and campaign manifesto, the failure they will encounter will be too much to for them to handle.

garfield1:
Peter obi will clearly win benue.majority here are Christians and hate anything fulani.obi will have 60%,tinubu 25% atiku 15%.
Obi will win the fct with 40%.tinubu and atiku will share the remaining 60% equally.with plateau being a Christian dominated state,obi might just win depending on where ex gov and ex convict dariye supports.if he supports or joins labour,obi will win plateau.as it stands pdp has no senator in plateau.their only senator istifanus gyang from plateau north has joined labour.therefore plateau north which is mainly berom who are fierce Christians will divide votes.plateau central will go where dariye wants while plateau south save for langtang will go apc.obi should gave 40%,others share 60%..
With Christians making 55% of taraba,obi will do well here.the people are tired of pdp and gov Darius.if gen t.y danjuma supports obi,he might just win but this is not certain....




Cc mynd44
Kahal
Helinues
Asobo1
Kyase
Noethnicity
Naijjj
Coolambience
Casualobserver
Majole
Omenka
Passing shot

Sadly, I will join issues with you which i hardly do. The North has always voted first for region second for religion but the 2015 election changed the dynamics, 2019 further entrenched it. Today both are of distant thought to the people especially those of central Nigeria. The 2023 election is pitching the two dominant religions against each other, were it not Atiku could simply idle away and wait for swearing in since the North has more registered voters and states than the South. But times have changed and the peoples' of central Nigeria are looking for a neutral politician, a competent person as the president of Nigeria. Allotting percentage votes is good but the dynamics could change for or against. Atiku is firmly on ground with the elites in the 19 Northern states, but the 'wretched' of the earth - educated youths and rural folks ain't really with him as in the past. The Christian ain't wholesomely with any party or candidate, they are across all parties but LP looks like a new kid on the block, a new, big, beautiful and bold bride and a wild fire traveling with the speed of a jet. Some of the states you mentioned have other dynamics which you don't know or choose not to interrogate. I won't also go into them hoping 2023 will do justice to them. But... subnational elections will take a different dimension and can't be used to strictly measure national elections. In some states in the North religion and tribe will come handy in some performance of the incumbent party will take center stage. APC at the state level will differ with APC at the national level. The anarchy in the North is no thanks to APC at the center, same as corruption, poverty, nepotism and divisive politics. Some states may retain the subnational ruling party but when it comes to the center a new party and personnel are likely in the offing. Sai APC ta yi da gaskiya kam!

Zionmdde:

Story for the ancestors
I am yet to see a delta, bayelsan, akwa ibomite or cross riverian supporting tinubu.
Most SS I know support Obi, atiku might be a major competition in SS but not tinubu. You guys should just face north

Wetin you dey quote somebody wey carry 'drlateef' moniker come dey school am about how SS no go vote Tinubu!

Only that name go tell you say him na one of the urchins wey dey project Tinubu!

Na d way them go pelter that guy with stone for SS I dey reason! The thing no go funny!

Tinubu go win one state for SS my ass!

Kyase:


I don’t hate obi
I just don’t like the set of people supporting him

Benue is for Atiku

The set of people supporting him are Nigerians. So even if they aren't supporting Obi, you'd still hate them.

I think what you meant to say is "you don't like the way they're carrying his matter on their heads", which could mean you're 'envious'. In that case, you not hating Obi is just a lie to justify your statement.

ghosttownboss:

Ideally but you see this scenario is powered by hunger and need for a change finally the youths are getting it right! Endsars made them realise they can have a say!
Labour party and Peter Obi is the real emilokan

I can bet it with you that 50% of people involved in endsars protest which are majorly 95% southern Nigerians will not go out on the election day.

The agitation you're portraying here is just like the tiktok trend that youth always follow bumper to bumper until the euphoria wane of overtime, a clear recent example to not use any online activity to weigh in on political matter in Nigeria system when it comes to us is the current Russian-Ukraine brouhaha, my man when last did you hear about any particular strong opinion from this nairaland forum dominated by youth makes headline on the war matter? Why the sudden forgetfulness and remember there was a time we got more than 6 post daily about it online here just few month ago... suddenly the youth here become uninterested and go back to look for something new.

Youth are nothing in Nigeria dispensation and that's why nothing will change and we will remain at the bottom of the barrel as a nation. The youth are cowards and northern youth don't share southern youth opinion for obvious reason you already know as I presumed you to be a learned individual since you can give an opinion that pass cognitive test.

Minjim:
Maybe Kadunna. If he's ever likely to win any Northern state. It should be Kaduna

kaduna is my state. I can swear with anything that obi will not win kaduna.

donaldking100:
Nasarawa.
Benue.
Abuja.
Kadunna.
Plateau.

rabbish. Obi will not win one state in the north

Pandev:
votes analysis is not done based on emotions. As of now, Obi won't win even Anambra. There are people who belong to a political party, they won't just leave their party because of religion. Even if religion is going to determine the next president, it is still Tinubu who is going to win. Learn to see things from logical angle so that the results of election won't shock you.

maybe you are dreaming. Which state Tinubu will defeat Atiku in the north? Atiku have the 19 northern States already.

vicdom:

This my guy clearly hates Obi oooo... Who will win Benue state, if obi get 25%s ?? I know you are you are from Benue, and be truthful oooo..

apc and pdp members are still in benue.
people that voted for pdp before will either vote for atiku or obi.
therefore, obi can have 25% and atiku 25%.
that is how it will play out in almost all state.

ghosttownboss:

Cross River is not APC!
The governor made sure APC will loose PDP is taking back cross river very easily
As for presidential election it is common knowledge here both APC and PDP will vote labour party
I dey here and I get eye

why will apc members vote for obituary.
is it for money or appointment, they can get it from tinubu.

garfield1:
Peter obi will clearly win benue.majority here are Christians and hate anything fulani.obi will have 60%,tinubu 25% atiku 15%.
Obi will win the fct with 40%.tinubu and atiku will share the remaining 60% equally.with plateau being a Christian dominated state,obi might just win depending on where ex gov and ex convict dariye supports.if he supports or joins labour,obi will win plateau.as it stands pdp has no senator in plateau.their only senator istifanus gyang from plateau north has joined labour.therefore plateau north which is mainly berom who are fierce Christians will divide votes.plateau central will go where dariye wants while plateau south save for langtang will go apc.obi should gave 40%,others share 60%..
With Christians making 55% of taraba,obi will do well here.the people are tired of pdp and gov Darius.if gen t.y danjuma supports obi,he might just win but this is not certain....




Cc mynd44
Kahal
Helinues
Asobo1
Kyase
Noethnicity
Naijjj
Coolambience
Casualobserver
Majole
Omenka
Passing shot

watery projections. Obi wont and cant win any northern state. He has zero chance of winning in the north and will even struggle in the south east. Election no be noise!!!!

garfield1:


By December,people will know him.the wave is so strong.structures are gradually springing up.

my friend Garfield AKA senatordave have actually seen the wind blowing.
But other Tinubu urchins are still blinded by tribalism and hatred.

Salvador1:
my friend Garfield AKA senatordave have actually seen the wind blowing.
But other Tinubu urchins are still blinded by tribalism and hatred.

That doesn't mean that he will win. Tinubu will win closely pursued by obi

ghosttownboss:

Cross River is not APC!
The governor made sure APC will loose PDP is taking back cross river very easily
As for presidential election it is common knowledge here both APC and PDP will vote labour party
I dey here and I get eye

For guber,crs is apc.sweet prince is taking the state.for presidential,the three parties will share votes but obi never penetrate the rural areas

asanausana91:
maybe you are dreaming. Which state Tinubu will defeat Atiku in the north? Atiku have the 19 northern States already.

Tinubu will win zamfara,katsina,jigawa,Kaduna,borno,yobe,gombe,bauchi,kwara,Niger,kogi.pdp is very weak up north

garfield1:


That doesn't mean that he will win. Tinubu will win closely pursued by obi

by January you will still change narrative.

Afterall you and your lots said Obi can't even win his local government.

garfield1:


Tinubu will win zamfara,katsina,jigawa,Kaduna,borno,yobe,gombe,bauchi,kwara,Niger,kogi.pdp is very weak up north

Wake up brother Tinubu aint buhari and Atiku will flip the north.

Salvador1:
by January you will still change narrative.

Afterall you and your lots said Obi can't even win his local government.

Oga go through the threads.I have always rated obi above atiku.

tuniski:

Wake up brother Tinubu aint buhari and Atiku will flip the north.

We had similar electoral duel in 2019,you have come again.atiku is not popular among the talakawas,he can't flip the north.only kwankwaso can

KnowAll:
When campaign starts & Jagaban’s money start getting into d pockets of those poor folks in displacement camps in Borneo, Adamawa, Yobe, Benue , Abuja , Kaduna it would be a different story.

Ideally Obi would have won but d kind of money politics that we play in Nigeria. Jagaban would take it .

U don't know the new code, chop & clean mouth. Jagabandit will call his party agents to stop sharing the money when it becomes obvious that the number of votes he'll be seeing won't be commensurate with the amount being spent. But it would have been too late cos even those agents will surely cash out. The bullion vans must be offloaded.
U never see anything.

Excellent analysis............Obi will win 40% in Kano, Kaduna and Kastina

garfield1:
Peter obi will clearly win benue.majority here are Christians and hate anything fulani.obi will have 60%,tinubu 25% atiku 15%.
Obi will win the fct with 40%.tinubu and atiku will share the remaining 60% equally.with plateau being a Christian dominated state,obi might just win depending on where ex gov and ex convict dariye supports.if he supports or joins labour,obi will win plateau.as it stands pdp has no senator in plateau.their only senator istifanus gyang from plateau north has joined labour.therefore plateau north which is mainly berom who are fierce Christians will divide votes.plateau central will go where dariye wants while plateau south save for langtang will go apc.obi should gave 40%,others share 60%..
With Christians making 55% of taraba,obi will do well here.the people are tired of pdp and gov Darius.if gen t.y danjuma supports obi,he might just win but this is not certain....




Cc mynd44
Kahal
Helinues
Asobo1
Kyase
Noethnicity
Naijjj
Coolambience
Casualobserver
Majole
Omenka
Passing shot

babyfaceafrica:


All the pdp governors will be looking as he clear SE ABI?.. Una no understand how politics works

It is usually people that don't stay in the SE that have the mentality.


If you think Obi won't win the 5 SE states then you are being naive.

frugal:

The set of people supporting him are Nigerians. So even if they aren't supporting Obi, you'd still hate them.

I think what you meant to say is "you don't like the way they're carrying his matter on their heads", which could mean you're 'envious'. In that case, you not hating Obi is just a lie to justify your statement.

Nope they were never patriotic
Check them including yourself
You once prayed Nigeria should fail
Na una type be that

Blazebond:
You come here to analyse base on religion,see your small mind,all the dubious people when dey around your life are they all Muslim? Low reasoning is the bane of many people,even the ones that think they are exposed, whether na Muslim Muslim ticket o, christian Muslim ticket o, atheist atheist ticket o, christian christian ticket o, traditional worshipers ticket o,me blazebond don't give a f**k,I am not going to vote based on religion because I don't care,all the governors in south south and southeast please tell me are they Muslim? Nonsense reasoning,the more you people make this about religion,the more people of the north are going to vote on that line.

That's what they hanged on... Using religion to canverse votes... I keep telling NIGERIANS.. nyamiris are religion fantastic ... They hate Muslims with passion... Why ?

Kyase:


Nope they were never patriotic
Check them including yourself
You once prayed Nigeria should fail
Na una type be that

Where'd you pull that from? Your ass?

Indispensable85:
When the campaigns begin proper from state to state, you'll know that Obi is not in the race.
It's a straight contest between Apc and pdp. Obi will end up being a spoiler to Atiku in the end because 70% of the votes Obi will get would've been for Atiku.

Pure fact

Saintinoo:


Which Abuja are you talking about... So you interviewed all of them to know that they don't have PVC? I am tell you that those people who have been voting for PDP in Abuja are now for Obi and you are talking about PVC...

what did they use in voting Atiku in 2019, do you even know that Atiku got most votes in Abuja because of Obi in 2019?

Obi cannot win Abuja. 80% of those that vote in Abuja are indigene while other public and civil servants either register in their home state or don't have PVC,

It is either PDP or APC while the Igbo residing in Abuja will vote Obi

ABBkelvin:

To be honest here, for Obi to stand a minimum chance of having 5 million votes to himself in February, it will require him spending nothing less than 50 billion naira to mobilize locally in every nuke and cranies of all the state in Nigeria.

Fu k the youth that are shouting online go to different political party meeting the people that are regular and always ready to vote are not the smart type that type trash online on different social media platform, they mostly consist of dire illiterate, artisan and bunch of myopic one way thinking set of individuals and they always make 85% of voters; They get swayed easily by what the party chairman heading their various ward say to them.

Obi is not in this race at all, the fact he just started everything afresh from a substandard political party without any structure is a testament of what is to come. Even in the SE region, people will rather choose either of the two devils they are use to, so Peter Obi and the online youth shouting everywhere online are wasting their time if they think 2023 is sure for them.

I have nothing against Peter Obi, I am just a realist with indept understanding of the Nigeria political atmosphere.

You don't know what you're saying sir
Obi has more illiterate supporters and Educated more than any other candidate. Watch out you will witness the sleepless