garfield1:


Oga,leave that ejagham thing.if they wanted an ejagham,it should have been dansuki from south.zoning is done according to zones not tribe.it is the turn of the south.apart from etung,the only place sandy is sure of is ikom.obubra is where apc started,the main men are apc.yakurr is apc,same for abi.during the pdp primaries,pdp delegates from central voted against sandy to show you that he's not on ground

Broda
Dansuki's greed cost the south south the ticket
Now everybody don align
Did you even for one day believe ayade will give the ticket to south south? Even Peter Odey cannot win when jarigbe is on ground
It's the bitter truth

ghosttownboss:
Broda
Dansuki's greed cost the south south the ticket
Now everybody don align
Did you even for one day believe ayade will give the ticket to south south? Even Peter Odey cannot win when jarigbe is on ground
It's the bitter truth

Oga,mbube people dont tally with bakor.jarigbe is mainly on ground in bakor and not mbube where peter is from.ogoja is the only place pdp can win in the north.pdp chair in obanliku has joined apc...
People prefer dansuki to gersh,gersh should have stepped down for dansuki.dansuki has left pdp to labour, pdp is empty in akamkpa.okon owuna and co now run akamkpa

garfield1:


Oga,mbube people dont tally with bakor.jarigbe is mainly on ground in bakor and not mbube where peter is from.ogoja is the only place pdp can win in the north.pdp chair in obanliku has joined apc...
People prefer dansuki to gersh,gersh should have stepped down for dansuki.dansuki has left pdp to labour, pdp is empty in akamkpa.okon owuna and co now run akamkpa

I hope you know Sandy's mother is akamkpa! I also hope you know ayade failure in governance even among his people where he took there land for airport he didn't build among many others will work against him and his candidate
In any case bros cross is a very ethnic biased state right now
You should accept that

lol Sir me thinks you're a bit too optimistic about Obi's chances in the north. Yes he will get a sizeable number of votes in the middle belt but not enough to win those states.

Obi has large following in the SE and among people of SE origin leaving in SW, SS and North but he doesn't have the devout followership of people in other regions to make him win their states. The chieftains of APC & PDP will be deployed to deliver the NC. Benue, Plateau and Taraba voters don't know Obi enough to make that step of voting for him.

All this we are saying las las Obi might still step down for Atiku before elections. His body language suggests he wouldn't mind working with Atiku.

garfield1:
Peter obi will clearly win benue.majority here are Christians and hate anything fulani.obi will have 60%,tinubu 25% atiku 15%.
Obi will win the fct with 40%.tinubu and atiku will share the remaining 60% equally.with plateau being a Christian dominated state,obi might just win depending on where ex gov and ex convict dariye supports.if he supports or joins labour,obi will win plateau.as it stands pdp has no senator in plateau.their only senator istifanus gyang from plateau north has joined labour.therefore plateau north which is mainly berom who are fierce Christians will divide votes.plateau central will go where dariye wants while plateau south save for langtang will go apc.obi should gave 40%,others share 60%..
With Christians making 55% of taraba,obi will do well here.the people are tired of pdp and gov Darius.if gen t.y danjuma supports obi,he might just win but this is not certain....




Cc mynd44
Kahal
Helinues
Asobo1
Kyase
Noethnicity
Naijjj
Coolambience
Casualobserver
Majole
Omenka
Passing shot

Even that is debatable. I still the PDP structure in the SE could pull surprises. Obi will win Anambra but Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi and Abia will be tough for him but he could win by a slim margin.

garfield1:


Obi will clear se

Yes you're right votes that would have ordinarily gone to PDP will be shared with Labour. This might replicate itself nationally because normal PDP strong holds like SE and SS could potentially be won by Obi which might harm Atiku's chances.

garfield1:


Pdp votes will be divided in fct so apc might win

chrisooblog:
Even that is debatable. I still the PDP structure in the SE could pull surprises. Obi will win Anambra but Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi and Abia will be tough for him but he could win by a slim margin.

The pdp structure in IMO and ebonyi is weak.only Enugu and abia is still solid bit abia are tired of pdp

garfield1:
Peter obi will clearly win benue.majority here are Christians and hate anything fulani.obi will have 60%,tinubu 25% atiku 15%.
Obi will win the fct with 40%.tinubu and atiku will share the remaining 60% equally.with plateau being a Christian dominated state,obi might just win depending on where ex gov and ex convict dariye supports.if he supports or joins labour,obi will win plateau.as it stands pdp has no senator in plateau.their only senator istifanus gyang from plateau north has joined labour.therefore plateau north which is mainly berom who are fierce Christians will divide votes.plateau central will go where dariye wants while plateau south save for langtang will go apc.obi should gave 40%,others share 60%..
With Christians making 55% of taraba,obi will do well here.the people are tired of pdp and gov Darius.if gen t.y danjuma supports obi,he might just win but this is not certain....




Cc mynd44
Kahal
Helinues
Asobo1
Kyase
Noethnicity
Naijjj
Coolambience
Casualobserver
Majole
Omenka
Passing shot

One of the most sincere posts you have made on Nairaland since I came to know you.

Now, if you add all these percentages you have talked about to what Obi will get in Southeast, Southsouth and Southwest, do you still think Obi will not win?

Pandev:
votes analysis is not done based on emotions. As of now, Obi won't win even Anambra. There are people who belong to a political party, they won't just leave their party because of religion. Even if religion is going to determine the next president, it is still Tinubu who is going to win. Learn to see things from logical angle so that the results of election won't shock you.

Like you saw it logically in Osun, Edo and Anambra, right?

Penguin2:


One of the most sincere posts you have made on Nairaland since I came to know you.

Now, if you add all these percentages you have talked about to what Obi will get in Southeast, Southsouth and Southwest, do you still think Obi will not win?

Obi isn't wining any region overwhelmingly except perhaps the SE
And SW is Tinubu's to lose
Sincerely speaking He won't win

Pandev:
votes analysis is not done based on emotions. As of now, Obi won't win even Anambra. There are people who belong to a political party, they won't just leave their party because of religion. Even if religion is going to determine the next president, it is still Tinubu who is going to win. Learn to see things from logical angle so that the results of election won't shock you.

Religion has always been a major factor in Nigerian elections, Tinubu just made it very obvious by igniting deep rooted fears in northern Christians, to think otherwise is ignorant.

Will not even comment on your statement about Obi not winning Anambra.
This elections sadly will not be along party lines in most states...a lot of people have made it seem like a battle for supremacy of faiths.

Tinubu is getting nothing from the south east and south south, even his south west is highly, polarised cos of APC's failure and Tinubu's same faith ticket.

Tinubu picked his ticket because he is banking on same voting pattern in the north of 2015 and 2019, I live in the north and do business there, especially the core north...don't be deceived by the APC northern governors hype, the names those guys call are Kwankwoso and Atiku....

This elections will shock a lot of people especially most analyst using historical data to project...the dynamics at play are very very complicated and so much is at stake for a lot of people.

Make we dey observe.

SenatePresdo:


Kogi is majorly OBIdient

Hmmm!

This is not the first time I’m seeing somebody say this and I’m usually surprised.

You mean there are people in Kogi that are supporting Peter Obi?

garfield1:
Peter obi will clearly win benue.majority here are Christians and hate anything fulani.obi will have 60%,tinubu 25% atiku 15%.
Obi will win the fct with 40%.tinubu and atiku will share the remaining 60% equally.with plateau being a Christian dominated state,obi might just win depending on where ex gov and ex convict dariye supports.if he supports or joins labour,obi will win plateau.as it stands pdp has no senator in plateau.their only senator istifanus gyang from plateau north has joined labour.therefore plateau north which is mainly berom who are fierce Christians will divide votes.plateau central will go where dariye wants while plateau south save for langtang will go apc.obi should gave 40%,others share 60%..
With Christians making 55% of taraba,obi will do well here.the people are tired of pdp and gov Darius.if gen t.y danjuma supports obi,he might just win but this is not certain....




Cc mynd44
Kahal
Helinues
Asobo1
Kyase
Noethnicity
Naijjj
Coolambience
Casualobserver
Majole
Omenka
Passing shot

If Peter Obi is going to win any state in the North, it's going to be by a plurality in any of these states
1. Plateau
2. Benue
3. FCT
4. NASSARAWA
5. Taraba

chrisooblog:
Even that is debatable. I still the PDP structure in the SE could pull surprises. Obi will win Anambra but Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi and Abia will be tough for him but he could win by a slim margin.

Where are you from?

ABBkelvin:

To be honest here, for Obi to stand a minimum chance of having 5 million votes to himself in February, it will require him spending nothing less than 50 billion naira to mobilize locally in every nuke and cranies of all the state in Nigeria.

Fu k the youth that are shouting online go to different political party meeting the people that are regular and always ready to vote are not the smart type that type trash online on different social media platform, they mostly consist of dire illiterate, artisan and bunch of myopic one way thinking set of individuals and they always make 85% of voters; They get swayed easily by what the party chairman heading their various ward say to them.

Obi is not in this race at all, the fact he just started everything afresh from a substandard political party without any structure is a testament of what is to come. Even in the SE region, people will rather choose either of the two devils they are use to, so Peter Obi and the online youth shouting everywhere online are wasting their time if they think 2023 is sure for them.

I have nothing against Peter Obi, I am just a realist with indept understanding of the Nigeria political atmosphere.

Well...I don't believe in magic that Obi will win automatically, but to say Obi is not known is wrong...you seem to forget he was on the same ticket with Atiku in the last elections...

Trust me, he is known...most people in those areas like Benue are just still unsure, and will need very serious campaigns to push them to his side...

None the less, your not wrong about influence Atiku will have in Benue, cos they are a PDP state at heart...overhyping his Fulani ethnicity and Obi's faith might tilt things a little towards Obi, cos for some reason Benue people hate anything Fulani...

Aiel123:

Obi isn't wining any region overwhelmingly except perhaps the SE
And SW is Tinubu's to lose
Sincerely speaking He won't win

Now, where is Tinubu sure of winning overwhelmingly?

How is that any of your concern?

Penguin2:


Where are you from?

Maybe Kadunna. If he's ever likely to win any Northern state. It should be Kaduna

chrisooblog:
lol Sir me thinks you're a bit too optimistic about Obi's chances in the north. Yes he will get a sizeable number of votes in the middle belt but not enough to win those states.

Obi has large following in the SE and among people of SE origin leaving in SW, SS and North but he doesn't have the devout followership of people in other regions to make him win their states. The chieftains of APC & PDP will be deployed to deliver the NC. Benue, Plateau and Taraba voters don't know Obi enough to make that step of voting for him.

All this we are saying las las Obi might still step down for Atiku before elections. His body language suggests he wouldn't mind working with Atiku.

Obi stepdown for Atiku?
Is that the next propaganda?

Jesusloveyou:
not the members that will vote all the millions.
but the members will mobilize people from their areas.
for instance in Edo state, apc always get average of 210k vote for Buhari since 2015, but in governorship election, apc will get average of 300k vote since time of oshomole,
till this last election when some follow obaseki to pdp.
that means in Edo state, I'm sure of nothing less than 210k vote for tinubu.
atiku and obi will share pdp 300k vote.
that is how politics is be played in Nigeria.

Are you saying that 2023 will be the same with other elections?

I doubt.

Well when you see Obi greeting and hailing Atiku on his birthday, kneeling for him at the NBA conference and now going to meet Atiku and other PDP leaders in London it should raise eyebrows.

Abdu81:


Obi stepdown for Atiku?
Is that the next propaganda?

chrisooblog:
Well when you see Obi greeting and hailing Atiku on his birthday, kneeling for him at the NBA conference and now going to meet Atiku and other PDP leaders in London it should raise eyebrows.

Obi meeting with atiku in London?

Who are you?

A child or a desperate liar.

Zionmdde:

Story for the ancestors
I am yet to see a delta, bayelsan, akwa ibomite or cross riverian supporting tinubu.
Most SS I know support Obi, atiku might be a major competition in SS but not tinubu. You guys should just face north

which north? He should just face south west

Well you can continue to live in denial but Obi conveniently being in London the same time as Atiku taking pictures with known PDP chieftains should have you worried.

Abdu81:

Obi meeting with atiku in London?

Who are you?

A child or a desperate liar.

Penguin2:


Now, where is Tinubu sure of winning overwhelmingly?

First of all I'm not a fan of Tinubu
Since you asked Tinubu will win all SW states(Ondo is dicey oo) but I don't know by what margin
Borno and Yobe are Siamese twins no need telling you it's APC all through
Add Kwara and some NW states (If Buhari raises Tinubu's hand)
PO on the other hand will be in battle as PDP is strong in SS and SE

Aiel123:

First of all I'm not a fan of Tinubu
Since you asked Tinubu will win all SW states(Ondo is dicey oo) but I don't know by what margin
Borno and Yobe are Siamese twins no need telling you it's APC all through
Add Kwara and some NW states (If Buhari raises Tinubu's hand)
PO on the other hand will be in battle as PDP is strong in SS and SE

When you say PDP is strong in Southsouth and Southeast, do you mean govt appointees who are not up to 5000 or are you talking about the generality of the masses?

VERDA:


Religion has always been a major factor in Nigerian elections, Tinubu just made it very obvious by igniting deep rooted fears in northern Christians, to think otherwise is ignorant.

if religion is a MAJOR factor, does that mean that Christian were more populous than the Muslims in 2011 for Jonathan to win? Buhari defeated the same Jonathan in 2015, does that mean that Muslims suddenly overtook Christians in population?

Tinubu choice of running mate is nothing to be worried about because a Christian Osinbajo who doubles as a pastor couldn't make any difference.

Will not even comment on your statement about Obi not winning Anambra.
This elections sadly will not be along party lines in most states...a lot of people have made it seem like a battle for supremacy of faiths.

what does a lot of people mean to you? if you have experienced few electioneering in Nigeria, you will understand the importance of political parties. The situation is not suddenly going to change now. (Late Gani Fawehinmi who was better than Obi couldn't do it)

Tinubu is getting nothing from the south east and south south, even his south west is highly, polarised cos of APC's failure and Tinubu's same faith ticket.

APC has never performed very well in the south east, it's PDP stronghold. Now about south west, are you kidding me? Mark it, Tinubu will win all south west states. Look at the recent governorship elections, APC won Ekiti with wide margin, lost Osun with about 30,000 votes there by gathering about 370,000 votes against PDP's 400,000 or thereabout. Yes, Buhari failed us, but it's not that easy to leave a party you've worked hard for especially when it's your kinsman turn.

Tinubu picked his ticket because he is banking on same voting pattern in the north of 2015 and 2019, did Tinubu personally tell you that? Tinubu had made a lot of allies (Shettima himself is one of the allies, he didn't just pick him) in the north probably because he knew one day, he would want to rule Nigeria. This is what is called structure, not some group of people promising you support just because they don't like your opponent, you can't bank on such structure.
[quote]I live in the north and do business there, especially the core north...don't be deceived by the APC northern governors hype, the names those guys call are Kwankwoso and Atiku....

this 'I live/work in the north' is not new to our hearings. I can bet you have not even taken reviews from up to 100 person's let alone thousands, millions.

This elections will shock a lot of people especially most analyst using historical data to project...the dynamics at play are very very complicated and so much is at stake for a lot of people. Only an amateur/quack analyst wouldn't use historical data to project. the dynamics at play is not enough to stop APC and PDP. Despite PDP 16 years of misrule, it took APC coalition of APC, ANPP, CPC and also notable decamped personnels like ex and incumbent governors, senators, reps etc from (PDP) to conquer the then ruling party. You're just being emotional. It is not that easy.

[quote]Make we dey observe.

yeah, make we still dey observe for now.

Penguin2:


When you say PDP is strong in Southsouth and Southeast, do you mean govt appointees who are not up to 5000 or are you talking about the generality of the masses?

When I say strong I mean they have political henchmen who are mostly popular among the grassroot and have the financial and otherwise ability to sway,induce and galvanize votes
They're most ward chairmens,wards excos up to the local government level: structure
Now let me cite you an example
Forgive me I want to use APC
Sen. Orji Uzor Kalu won his senatorial district for Buhari in 2019, consequently he ended up being elected senator so we can confirm that he translated his votes to Buhari and APC
U know why?
He's got foot soldiers and robust political structure and huge financial warchest
So when campaigns starts the structure kicks in with a sole purpose : Deliver their party throughout
And moreover the electoral results in SS and SE butress my point on the popularity of PDP since democratic government began in 1999
So the electorates in this zones has gotten used to the dominat political party

VERDA:


Religion has always been a major factor in Nigerian elections, Tinubu just made it very obvious by igniting deep rooted fears in northern Christians, to think otherwise is ignorant.

Will not even comment on your statement about Obi not winning Anambra.
This elections sadly will not be along party lines in most states...a lot of people have made it seem like a battle for supremacy of faiths.

Tinubu is getting nothing from the south east and south south, even his south west is highly, polarised cos of APC's failure and Tinubu's same faith ticket.

Tinubu picked his ticket because he is banking on same voting pattern in the north of 2015 and 2019, I live in the north and do business there, especially the core north...don't be deceived by the APC northern governors hype, the names those guys call are Kwankwoso and Atiku....

This elections will shock a lot of people especially most analyst using historical data to project...the dynamics at play are very very complicated and so much is at stake for a lot of people.

Make we dey observe.

One thing I will agree with you is that past data may become irrelevant at some point if the correct machination is use to project a particular movement on the Emergence of Obi in the present timeline we are in.


My opinion is solely base on the fact that average Nigerians are not really smart enough to observe, analyze and accept a major change mantra twice in the space of 8 years which constitute 85% of real voters on election day.


Had it been that Obi was pick as PDP presidential candidate, I wouldn't have argue against him winning. Objective change is very hard on people with shallow thinking when there's already a particular objective set in motion. Social media is for the learned individual and thats just measly 22% of our population, who are kind of laid back and scared when it comes to actually voting and doing the right thing as a citizen of our country, this I'd observed personally overtime in our current political dispensation. Let's see by January next year, hopefully we can revisit this topic or the likes of it in the nearest future.

VERDA:


Well...I don't believe in magic that Obi will win automatically, but to say Obi is not known is wrong...you seem to forget he was on the same ticket with Atiku in the last elections...

Trust me, he is known...most people in those areas like Benue are just still unsure, and will need very serious campaigns to push them to his side...

None the less, your not wrong about influence Atiku will have in Benue, cos they are a PDP state at heart...overhyping his Fulani ethnicity and Obi's faith might tilt things a little towards Obi, cos for some reason Benue people hate anything Fulani...

I have replied to another post of yours above.

Abdu81:


Are you saying that 2023 will be the same with other elections?

I doubt.

Seriously, as an analyst what are you projecting to change in the Nigeria political system by 2023? On what ground are you redering your opinion that people that vote for either APC or PDP in the last two presidential election will suddenly vote for a new party? Do you even know the people that vote on election day? Have you contested for any political position before?


Did you presume that the people that have enough money to buy 50gb worth of data monthly, use AC, own cars and various modern electronics are the ones that flock out on election day? Please this are genuine question which I want to hear your opinion about.


People don't change easily, if Obi can't win over the people in the deep rural area with mostly low cost of living and little to no modern social life, then we should forget wasting effort on projecting him or else our opinion here will just sound like echo chambers. The recent election in Ekiti and Osun state adhere to the fact that people will always align to their old master, you can call it Stockholm syndrome but it is what it is.


Change is hard when 2 option is already on ground. This is not Obi vs PDP, but Obi versus set orders APC et PDP, thats why I doubt him winning the SE in the first place. Presidential election voters are 50% party members and they go to meeting and do everything intermittently. You may not know about this if you haven't had the chance to man an election yourself whether winning or losing you will gain a lot of insider information on how election work in Nigeria. There's a major reason why in the USA the chief democratic country presidential election mostly have 2 outcome party 95% of the time. You can give a stronger argument to negate my point I will surely entertain and learn from it too.

Aiel123:

When I say strong I mean they have political henchmen who are mostly popular among the grassroot and have the financial and otherwise ability to sway,induce and galvanize votes
They're most ward chairmens,wards excos up to the local government level: structure
Now let me cite you an example
Forgive me I want to use APC
Sen. Orji Uzor Kalu won his senatorial district for Buhari in 2019, consequently he ended up being elected senator so we can confirm that he translated his votes to Buhari and APC
U know why?
He's got foot soldiers and robust political structure and huge financial warchest
So when campaigns starts the structure kicks in with a sole purpose : Deliver their party throughout
And moreover the electoral results in SS and SE butress my point on the popularity of PDP since democratic government began in 1999
So the electorates in this zones has gotten used to the dominat political party

Lol!

See how you chose Orji Uzor Kalu for your comparison forgetting his case is just one in a million.

What has been helping OUK is the fact that he is popular amongst his people because of how gives them money and is able to buy the people to his side.

It is the kind of popularity that Ibori has in Delta. Even though Ibori is criminal and Nigerians would not wanna see him win any election, if he comes out for senatorial election, he will win. That’s same thing with OUK.

But aside OUK, how many other APC senators do you have from the entire Southeast?

What I’m trying to tell you is that what delivered OUK in Abia is not structure but because his people genuinely preferred him to his opponent.

About the generality of Igbos that have consistently voted PDP since 1999, it was simply because Igbos never had any alternative political platform that they accepted.

Before APC, the only opposition candidate in the presidency has always been Buhari who the Igbos abhor.

Then eventually APC was formed and Igbos, seeing the circumstances that led to its formation and the party also choosing Buhari as candidate, they canceled APC and vowed never to have anything to do with it. And they have been vindicated. Haven’t they?

But that’s not the case in 2023, the Igbos have finally seen an alternative platform they accept; and with PDP refusing to zone the Presidency to the southeast despite our faithfulness over the years, the voting pattern will not be anything like what you are used to seeing before.

Peter Obi will get 90% of Southeast votes. Take it on authority from me.