| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by VERDA: 6:40pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
Pandev:
if religion is a MAJOR factor, does that mean that Christian were more populous than the Muslims in 2011 for Jonathan to win? Buhari defeated the same Jonathan in 2015, does that mean that Muslims suddenly overtook Christians in population?
Tinubu choice of running mate is nothing to be worried about because a Christian Osinbajo who doubles as a pastor couldn't make any difference.
what does a lot of people mean to you? if you have experienced few electioneering in Nigeria, you will understand the importance of political parties. The situation is not suddenly going to change now. (Late Gani Fawehinmi who was better than Obi couldn't do it)
APC has never performed very well in the south east, it's PDP stronghold. Now about south west, are you kidding me?  Mark it, Tinubu will win all south west states. Look at the recent governorship elections, APC won Ekiti with wide margin, lost Osun with about 30,000 votes there by gathering about 370,000 votes against PDP's 400,000 or thereabout. Yes, Buhari failed us, but it's not that easy to leave a party you've worked hard for especially when it's your kinsman turn.
I said religion has always been a major factor in elections in Nigeria and that is the simple truth, do with that what you wish, most people know this. I never said everybody votes based on religion, you will always have people on both sides. As for Jonathan, a lot of propaganda played a huge role, majority of those responsible for pushing it then have come out to confess and regret their actions. The game changer was a little tilt in the southwest and middle belt, voting in most parts during the 2015 elections largely followed same pattern as 2011. To your second point, you are probably not from the north or a northern Christian so you would not understand this, the funny thing is you probably don't live in the north so I will not even argue this with you, if you know a northern Christian from the core not ask them what they feel about the Muslim Muslim ticket, and revert if your sincere. One thing some of you fail to understand is that presidential and state elections are different, same set of people can vote a party in state and vote another party in presidency, this has always happened especially in the southwest who most times vote individuals and competence as opposed to religion and ethnicity...but sadly the Muslim Muslim ticket has not done well for Tinubu, it is not an arguement...it is the fact, I never said Tinubu will loose all the southwest states, he might win but will not be a landslide, a 50% win in the southwest is a disaster for Tinubu, even 60% win is not good enough. Also I never said parties were not important, I merely stated the fact that the dynamics in this elections are not same as others. As to your point about me living in the north, I just have one question...do you live in the north?, Have you been there and spent time there?? Mark my words, core north will not live their son's and vote Tinubu, for some reason you feel the south west that is not as tribalistic will vote their son but the core north who are even more tribalistic will leave their son's and vote Tinubu, after the calamity APC has brought on their region, you are kidding yourself. Believe what you want, this elections will shock a lot of you. |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by Aiel123: 6:46pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
Penguin2:
Lol!
See how you chose Orji Uzor Kalu for your comparison forgetting his case is just one in a million.
What has been helping OUK is the fact that he is popular amongst his people because of how gives them money and is able to buy the people to his side.
It is the kind of popularity that Ibori has in Delta. Even though Ibori is criminal and Nigerians would not wanna see him win any election, if he comes out for senatorial election, he will win. That’s same thing with OUK.
But aside OUK, how many other APC senators do you have from the entire Southeast?
What I’m trying to tell you is that what delivered OUK in Abia is not structure but because his people genuinely preferred him to his opponent.
About the generality of Igbos that have consistently voted PDP since 1999, it was simply because Igbos never had any alternative political platform that they accepted.
Before APC, the only opposition candidate in the presidency has always been Buhari who the Igbos abhor.
Then eventually APC was formed and Igbos, seeing the circumstances that led to its formation and the party also choosing Buhari as candidate, they canceled APC and vowed never to have anything to do with it. And they have been vindicated. Haven’t they?
But that’s not the case in 2023, the Igbos have finally seen an alternative platform they accept; and with PDP refusing to zone the Presidency to the southeast despite our faithfulness over the years, the voting pattern will not be anything like what you are used to seeing before.
Peter Obi will get 90% of Southeast votes. Take it on authority from me. I think you're overrating PO A 90% electoral success isn't feasible in this current dispensation Unless PO wants to recreate Gej feats. |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by Abdu81: 6:48pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
ABBkelvin:
Seriously, as an analyst what are you projecting to change in the Nigeria political system by 2023? On what ground are you redering your opinion that people that vote for either APC or PDP in the last two presidential election will suddenly vote for a new party? Do you even know the people that vote on election day? Have you contested for any political position before?
Rural Sensetization for ObiDatti is seriously ongoing.
Did you presume that the people that have enough money to buy 50gb worth of data, use AC, own cars and various mordern electronics are the ones that flock out on election day? Please this is genuine question which I want to hear your opinion about.
People don't change easily, if Obi can't win over the people in the deep rural area with mostly low cost of living and little to no mordern social life, then we should forget wasting effort on projecting him or else our opinion here will just sound like echo chambers. The recent election in Ekiti and Osun state adhere to the fact that people will always align to their old master, you can call it Stockholm syndrome but it is what it is.
Change is hard when 2 option is already on ground. This is not Obi vs PDP, but Obi versus set orders APC et PDP, thats why I doubt him winning the SE in the first place. Presidential election voters are 50% party members and they go to meeting and do everything intermittently. You may not know about this if you haven't had the chance to man an election yourself whether winning or losing you will gain a lot of insider information on how election work in Nigeria. There's a major reason why in the USA the chief democratic country presidential election mostly have 2 outcome party 95% of the time. You can give a stronger argument to negate my point I will surely entertain and learn from it too. |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by VERDA: 6:51pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
ABBkelvin:
One thing I will agree with you is that past data may become irrelevant at some point if the correct machination is use to project a particular movement on the Emergence of Obi in the present timeline we are in.
My opinion is solely base on the fact that average Nigerians are not really smart enough to observe, analyze and accept a major change mantra twice in the space of 8 years which constitute 85% of real voters on election day.
Had it been that Obi was pick as PDD presidential candidate, I wouldn't have argue against him winning. Objective change is very hard on people with shallow thinking when there's already a particular objective set in motion. Social media is for the learned individual and thats just measly 22% of our population, who are kind of laid back and scared when it comes to actually voting and doing the right thing as a citizen of our country, this I'd observed personally overtime in our current political dispensation. Let's see by January next year, hopefully we can revisit this topic or the likes of it in the nearest future.  I get your point totally and understand what you mean, but one thing I will say also is, don't be so caught up with the whole, elections are not won on social media the PDP and APC push. People feel those pushing things on social media will not come out to vote, they will shock a lot of people, like I stated earlier, the dynamics have changed. As for some of the Rural people, trust me most of them are aware of what is happening and candidates being pushed, especially in places like the middle belt who have suffered severely from bandits. APC is out of it for them, I am not saying Peter Obi will win. I am saying given the right campaign strategy he will give Atiku a good fight and might, just might surprise people. Religion sadly is pushing the narrative in the middle belt, most of those rural dwellers you talk of attend mosques and churches, and for the first time in the history of the country major denominations are actually coming out to push a particular candidate and this is largely cos of Tinubu, his decision sent shivers to a lot of middle belters and core north Christians, those living in the south may not understand this. There is a morbid fear of Islamisation christians in the middle belt and core north have, justified or not, it is just there. Again this is not me saying Obi will win, let's just watch and see. |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by ABBkelvin(m): 6:53pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
Penguin2:
Lol!
See how you chose Orji Uzor Kalu for your comparison forgetting his case is just one in a million.
What has been helping OUK is the fact that he is popular amongst his people because of how gives them money and is able to buy the people to his side.
It is the kind of popularity that Ibori has in Delta. Even though Ibori is criminal and Nigerians would not wanna see him win any election, if he comes out for senatorial election, he will win. That’s same thing with OUK.
But aside OUK, how many other APC senators do you have from the entire Southeast?
What I’m trying to tell you is that what delivered OUK in Abia is not structure but because his people genuinely preferred him to his opponent.
About the generality of Igbos that have consistently voted PDP since 1999, it was simply because Igbos never had any alternative political platform that they accepted.
Before APC, the only opposition candidate in the presidency has always been Buhari who the Igbos abhor.
Then eventually APC was formed and Igbos, seeing the circumstances that led to its formation and the party also choosing Buhari as candidate, they canceled APC and vowed never to have anything to do with it. And they have been vindicated. Haven’t they?
But that’s not the case in 2023, the Igbos have finally seen an alternative platform they accept; and with PDP refusing to zone the Presidency to the southeast despite our faithfulness over the years, the voting pattern will not be anything like what you are used to seeing before.
Peter Obi will get 90% of Southeast votes. Take it on authority from me. I want to learn the insider knowledge you use to arrive at the point of Obi getting 90% in the SE. I want to learn more from your perspective about the SE giving 90% easily out of nowhere to LP party, LP |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by ABBkelvin(m): 7:08pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
VERDA:
I get your point totally and understand what you mean, but one thing I will say also is, don't be so caught up with the whole, elections are not won on social media the PDP and APC push.
People feel those pushing things on social media will not come out to vote, they will shock a lot of people, like I stated earlier, the dynamics have changed.
As for some of the Rural people, trust me most of them are aware of what is happening and candidates being pushed, especially in places like the middle belt who have suffered severely from bandits. APC is out of it for them, I am not saying Peter Obi will win. I am saying given the right campaign strategy he will give Atiku a good fight and might, just might surprise people.
Religion sadly is pushing the narrative in the middle belt, most of those rural dwellers you talk of attend mosques and churches, and for the first time in the history of the country major denominations are actually coming out to push a particular candidate and this is largely cos of Tinubu, his decision sent shivers to a lot of middle belters and core north Christians, those living in the south may not understand this. There is a morbid fear of Islamisation christians in the middle belt and core north have, justified or not, it is just there.
Again this is not me saying Obi will win, let's just watch and see. You made a valid point on Tinubu and APC M/M ticket which I agree will tilt the electioneering outcome to a certain degree. It is just how Obi fit in as a new party to contest against the two already solid party that I won't agree with easily without observing and analyzing the effort the LP is willing to put in when it matter most before the election day. Before PDP lost presidential election in 2015, my man 4 strong political party merged together to form APC with core PDP member working as anti party agent in 2015 election. My man I am yet to see anything like that happening yet to LP to give that hope of 2015 again. This is realism my man. Politicians hold everything that has to do with election in a country not the youth. So forget about Tinubu relate with me on the group of politicians and political parties willing to stake their neck for LP in 2023, NOT OBI BUT LP, TO POLITICIANS ONLY PARTY MATTERS NOT THE THE FLAGBEARER OF THE OVAL OFFICE. |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by Abdu81: 7:17pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
Pandev:
votes analysis is not done based on emotions. As of now, Obi won't win even Anambra. There are people who belong to a political party, they won't just leave their party because of religion. Even if religion is going to determine the next president, it is still Tinubu who is going to win. Learn to see things from logical angle so that the results of election won't shock you. Once you said obi will not will Anambra. Your post is totally wrong. Obi Wil Anambra 85% |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by Penguin2: 7:39pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
Aiel123:
I think you're overrating PO
A 90% electoral success isn't feasible in this current dispensation
Unless PO wants to recreate Gej feats.
If GEJ, a non Igbo, got 90% of Southeast votes, what makes you think Peter Obi, an Igbo son who they believe in his capacity, will not achieve same feat? 1 Like |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by VERDA: 7:47pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
ABBkelvin:
You made a valid point on Tinubu and APC M/M ticket which I agree will tilt the electioneering outcome to a certain degree. It is just how Obi fit in as a new party to contest against the two already solid party that I won't agree with easily without observing and analyzing the effort the LP is willing to put in when it matter most before the election day. Before PDP lost presidential election in 2015, my man 4 strong political party merged together to form APC with core PDP member working as anti party agent in 2015 election. My man I am yet to see anything like that happening yet to LP to give that hope of 2015 again.
This is realism my man. Politicians hold everything that has to do with election in a country not the youth. So forget about Tinubu relate with me on the group of politicians and political parties willing to stake their neck for LP in 2023, NOT OBI BUT LP, TO POLITICIANS ONLY PARTY MATTERS NOT THE THE FLAGBEARER OF THE OVAL OFFICE. First off, you should know that I am deep down sympatetic to PDP, have always been from 1999 up till 2019, still am as far as state elections are concerned, so most people rooting for Obi did not just drop from nowhere or from some set of people that never used to vote. Yes, you are mostly right, yet politicians do not vote, it's people that vote...politicians just galvanise and sometimes there may be sentiments strong enough to push people to make their own decisions, we are in that situation right now I believe. I see Obi in series of meetings trying to form alliances, majorly with governors and leaders in the south, at least he is trying...we do not know about the underground meetings and all... For Jonathan most of all the numerous alliances you talked about did not do much to change his base in the south, it merely turned the north which were already biased along ethnic and religious lines more against him, then a little in the southwest. So no amount of alliance like you mention changed anything in the south east and south south and a lot of his former South West supporters. The same way you will not hear me mention Obi when it comes to northwest and northeast. Obi should focus on the middle belt and let his vice do what he can in the core north, I see a lot of things happening in plateau with a senator and other major leaders moving to LP. Like you I am also watching and observing what will happen in the months during campaign. Maybe he may form new alliances. Politicians don't vote, people vote. |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by Aiel123: 8:00pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
Penguin2:
If GEJ, a non Igbo, got 90% of Southeast votes, what makes you think Peter Obi, an Igbo son who they believe in his capacity, will not achieve same feat? Gej has a popular party Buhari,'s CPC wasn't known then even though he picked a Igbo vice. But for PO Labour Party isn't that popular Igbos never voted massively for Ojukwu when he contested on Apga See @Peguin,if you say PO will win Anambra with 95% I won't doubt it but overall 90% in SE zone e hard oo Don't you think if buhari a northerner could get 18% of SE votes, Tinubu being a southerner will perform better? And PDP and Okowa claiming Igbo? I concede PO will win SE but I don't agree with your percentage 1 Like |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by AbuMaryam1(m): 8:19pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
Saintinoo:
Obi will not win Benue, Benue is sure for Atiku. Taraba State is 80 percent Christian, the Muslims you find in jalingo are merely settlers Jos like Jos.
The only place you find Muslims in taraba is Gembu ( Fulani), Lau local government and Karim lamido local government.
Peter Obi we win Taraba by at least 55 percent.
plaetuea votes will be divided but mostly between Obi and Atiku, but Obi will win narrowly. Forget Lalong and dariye.
Another place Obi might get 30 percent votes is Bauchi (Bogoro, Dass, Tafawa balewa and Wargi local government areas) will vote Obi if CAN ask them to.
Again Gombe, Obi should reach out to CAN and EWCA pastors and the deal is done... 55 percent of Gombe people are Christians.
and then Southern Borno, Christian make up 30 percent of Borno but sadly people don know.
You forgot Kaduna, Kaduna Christians can give Obi more than 1million votes. they gave Jonathan 1.4 million in 2011. Why foreingners comment on Nigerian forums..?? Where did you get 55% in Gombe, where did you get 1.4m in Kaduna south. You didn't live a life with reality |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by Saintinoo(m): 8:33pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
AbuMaryam1:
Why foreingners comment on Nigerian forums..?? Where did you get 55% in Gombe, where did you get 1.4m in Kaduna south. You didn't live a life with reality
Don't get into my mentions again if you lack common sense.... In 2011 Kaduna gave Jonathan almost 1.4 million votes, it's there, go and check. Gombe state is 55 percent Christian, for that Muslims rule politically in Gombe, most of Muslims you find in Gombe town are mostly settlers. How many Muslims are in Kaltungo, Biliri, Dadin kowa, Yalmaltu deba and other local government in Gombe? |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by AbuMaryam1(m): 9:41pm On Aug 26, 2022 |
Saintinoo:
Don't get into my mentions again if you lack common sense.... In 2011 Kaduna gave Jonathan almost 1.4 million votes, it's there, go and check.
Gombe state is 55 percent Christian, for that Muslims rule politically in Gombe, most of Muslims you find in Gombe town are mostly settlers. How many Muslims are in Kaltungo, Biliri, Dadin kowa, Yalmaltu deba and other local government in Gombe? You are blind folded with those figures. If Kaduna gives Jonathan 1.4m it signifies all it's christian votes.. And I don't know how you get to know Gombe is 55% christian. You just made mentioned Kaltungo, Billiri and Y/Deba and call it 55% of of eleven local government. That indicates you knew nothing regards to Gombe state. And for for your information, Dadin Kowa is under Yamaltu Deba. Akko local govt is bigger than those local government you made mentioned, in population and landmarks. Stop circulating lies. Plus Kaduna, you don't know anything about Kaduna... You are here spraying lies. |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by Saintinoo(m): 4:54pm On Aug 27, 2022 |
AbuMaryam1:
You are blind folded with those figures. If Kaduna gives Jonathan 1.4m it signifies all it's christian votes.. And I don't know how you get to know Gombe is 55% christian. You just made mentioned Kaltungo, Billiri and Y/Deba and call it 55% of of eleven local government. That indicates you knew nothing regards to Gombe state. And for for your information, Dadin Kowa is under Yamaltu Deba. Akko local govt is bigger than those local government you made mentioned, in population and landmarks.
Stop circulating lies. Plus Kaduna, you don't know anything about Kaduna... You are here spraying lies. I don't like replying ignorant people like you but I have to this once, the the 2011 election results are all over the Internet, go and check. Buhari won KD by almost 1.6 million votes while Jonathan won by almost 1.4 million votes. Akko local governments you claim is bigger comprises of Gombe capital, the population of Akko local government is found in the capital city of Gombe, where you have different tribes and religion. if you have been to Pindiha, Kashere and Tumo....... You will know that Akko local government only ends in Gombe capital. I invite you to Gombe for a tour if you believe muslins are majority in Gombe. |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by blazesam(m): 6:14pm On Aug 27, 2022 |
garfield1:
Peter obi will clearly win benue.majority here are Christians and hate anything fulani.obi will have 60%,tinubu 25% atiku 15%.
Obi will win the fct with 40%.tinubu and atiku will share the remaining 60% equally.with plateau being a Christian dominated state,obi might just win depending on where ex gov and ex convict dariye supports.if he supports or joins labour,obi will win plateau.as it stands pdp has no senator in plateau.their only senator istifanus gyang from plateau north has joined labour.therefore plateau north which is mainly berom who are fierce Christians will divide votes.plateau central will go where dariye wants while plateau south save for langtang will go apc.obi should gave 40%,others share 60%..
With Christians making 55% of taraba,obi will do well here.the people are tired of pdp and gov Darius.if gen t.y danjuma supports obi,he might just win but this is not certain....
Cc mynd44
Kahal
Helinues
Asobo1
Kyase
Noethnicity
Naijjj
Coolambience
Casualobserver
Majole
Omenka
Passing shot
Am Aondona, Let me start by saying all the Northern states that have deputy governors as Christians will vote for obidatti. Take it or leave it |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by SharpD: 7:08pm On Aug 27, 2022 |
ghosttownboss:
Cross River is not APC!
The governor made sure APC will loose PDP is taking back cross river very easily
As for presidential election it is common knowledge here both APC and PDP will vote labour party
I dey here and I get eye I agree with you. In my state which is a core pdp state in the ss region, both apc and pdp supporters are already queing up for obi presidency. The mantra now is to deliver pdp in all other positions while Obi takes the presidential election. This presidential election will be interesting because people are voting for individuals not party. 1 Like |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by SharpD: 7:15pm On Aug 27, 2022 |
ABBkelvin:
I can bet it with you that 50% of people involved in endsars protest which are majorly 95% southern Nigerians will not go out on the election day.
The agitation you're portraying here is just like the tiktok trend that youth always follow bumper to bumper until the euphoria wane of overtime, a clear recent example to not use any online activity to weigh in on political matter in Nigeria system when it comes to us is the current Russian-Ukraine brouhaha, my man when last did you hear about any particular strong opinion from this nairaland forum dominated by youth makes headline on the war matter? Why the sudden forgetfulness and remember there was a time we got more than 6 post daily about it online here just few month ago... suddenly the youth here become uninterested and go back to look for something new.
Youth are nothing in Nigeria dispensation and that's why nothing will change and we will remain at the bottom of the barrel as a nation. The youth are cowards and northern youth don't share southern youth opinion for obvious reason you already know as I presumed you to be a learned individual since you can give an opinion that pass cognitive test. I use to think this way before now but I have to disagree with you because of what I saw today in PH. I was surprise when I could not go out for an official assignment today because of heavy downpour. To my surprise I i fanally got out to find out that a lot of youths defied the rain to join the solidarity walk for Peter Obi. I am convinced the youths are determined to take the bull by the horn this time around. |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by oguntola1(m): 7:25pm On Aug 27, 2022 |
No one |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by ABBkelvin(m): 7:32pm On Aug 27, 2022 |
SharpD:
I use to think this way before now but I have to disagree with you because of what I saw today in PH. I was surprise when I could not go out for an official assignment today because of heavy downpour. To my surprise I i fanally got out to find out that a lot of youths defied the rain to join the solidarity walk for Peter Obi. I am convinced the youths are determined to take the bull by the horn this time around. Let's hope they do the same on the election day at their various ward where they can't go out in group where they see it as a way of having fun and meeting new people as an average youth think about large gathering. |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by AbuMaryam1(m): 7:42pm On Aug 27, 2022 |
Saintinoo:
I don't like replying ignorant people like you but I have to this once, the the 2011 election results are all over the Internet, go and check. Buhari won KD by almost 1.6 million votes while Jonathan won by almost 1.4 million votes.
Akko local governments you claim is bigger comprises of Gombe capital, the population of Akko local government is found in the capital city of Gombe, where you have different tribes and religion.
if you have been to Pindiha, Kashere and Tumo....... You will know that Akko local government only ends in Gombe capital.
I invite you to Gombe for a tour if you believe muslins are majority in Gombe. My friend don't be economical with truth. You don't have to invites me to Gombe. I'm in Gombe already. Come and meet me in Tudun wada. I repeat myself please stop spraying lies that 55% Christianity in Gombe. Dukku, Nafada, Funakaye, Kwami and Gombe and Akko local governments are 90% Muslims. These are six out of 11 local government. The Yamaltu Deba, Balanga 70% to 30%. Only Shingom Billiri you can get 70% xtian while Muslim 30%.... In Kaltungo it would be 50-50....... |
| Re: Which Northern State Will Obi Win? by ghosttownboss(m): 5:37pm On Aug 28, 2022 |
Jesusloveyou:
why will apc members vote for obituary.
I don't know why idiotic pigs of biafra terrorist will just be making mouth.
you did not tell me the reason why will apc vote obituary.
that is how idiotic pigs have be having mouth since 2015 that Buhari can not get one vote.
you don't really know politics. I just made an observation and boom you insulted me U see the difference between me and you?Yet your moniker is Jesus loves you! He taught you that? I doubt it! Respect if you want to be respected karma comes in different forms |
