CodeTemplarr:
Subsidy is expensive to maintain and already crippling us as an economy but i disagree with him here.

The actual consumption figure cannot be quaged by what goes out of his refinery. The NNPCL is stepping in as a monopoly force in order to drive prices down on behalf of a govt eager to lower prices. That leaves us still with difference between our prices and our neighbour's and thats the basis for smuggling.
Tracking trucks is good but there are other means of smuggling it from border areas out.

Let me tell you my actual problem.

My problem is with Tinubu because he thinks saving money is the key to success. Well, it is only after you have settled your basic needs. No one saves money for tomorrow when he is starving today.

Keep subsidy, govt coffers doesn't rise and indirectly economy remains stagnant. Lose subsidy and the economy gets hit directly from all markets forces including corruption. The latter is what Tinubu chose but I can tell you this economy will never be better. Reason is that he is not solving the problem but dressing it up in new clothing i.e any govt that focus on their ability to save and appropriate in this country will fail because the entire levels of governance is filled with unimaginable corruption. Less than 50% of appropriated money gets to where its needed.

Let me tell you the benefit of subsidy. If petrol is 1000, if govt pays 500, it directly gets to the poorest among the poor. Fertilizer of 50k and government pays half, this goes directly to the mouths of every nigerian. Till today, government is buying fertilizer and supplying to farmers. Does it get to farmers? NO! Politicians share it to themselves and sell it to the actual farmers at market price. Why not subsidize the entire supply of fertilizer and regulate price where only farmers get direct access in the market. These are direct efforts to facilitate supply chain and at the end economy.

Let me now tell you what the World bank, IMF et al have done to us with this analogy. They see us as a blue collar man with a family. He rides a motorcycle to work and lives in a 2 room face me i face you. He pays private sch for his 4 kids, they eat 3 square meals (well balanced). He cant save for retirement because he earns just enough to get by every month.

A bank comes to him and say, sell your bike, put your children in public sch, stop eating 3 square meals and buy a plot of land. In turn we will buy you a nice new car and build you a house.

Will it shock you if i say he is going to be in debts for the rest of his life while at the same time losing the standard of living he has achieved for himself and his family. The imaginary picture of a house and a car seem to be a bright future but its unreal. The car will break down before he can pay for it. He will retire before he can pay off the house and the bank will take every when he dies.

No good parent will trade off his child's future like that. But that is what Tinubu has committed himself to do and i am surprised he is an accountant. He thinks he can just save money and award contracts. The money will just disappear, puff, and Nigeria will still be left broke.

stuffs4me:


Abeg correct yourself because we never wanted Osinbajo because he was a religious extremist and an antiIslamic bigot who could not tolerate the presences of Muslims in Nigeria.

The only people who wanted Osinbajo were religious extremists like him

Hmmmmm

Quoting myself

If anyone thinks this disaster is the end, wait for the next one. It will not end until we come together leaving our religious and ethnic dispositions to the side.

Now, I understand why he was not considered at all.

Pls enlighten me why you think he was a bigot.

wildernessVoice:
Good analysis
Even if the incumbent is Satan;
APC shouldn't be the alternative. This is a clear case of moving from frying pan to fire as we found ourselves at the National level. I expect the people of Edo State to test run LP.
The only LP Governor we have is in Abia state who is the best performing governor so far in Nigeria.
I weep for Edo people 😭😭😭

Please stop APC this APC that.

Ignore the party, in most cases, they just field a candidate when electorates are angry and the incumbent feels too comfortable. The person elected becomes the leader of the party either in state, region or federal. The party cant make decisions for anyone in the seat of power.

Remind yourself that Obaseki, Oshiomohle, Shuaibu and the gov elect were once in the same ship. They are all the same ppl.

GEJ vs PMB = Devil we know vs Devil we think we know (we'll be condemned if we knowingly went for the devil)
Atiku vs PMB = Devil vs Deep blue sea (we followed this man, got lost at sea)
Atiku vs Obi vs Tinubu = Devil vs somewhere between vs Deep blue sea (mtcheeeeew, we arrived hell sooner than Atiku would have taken us)
We were headed to hell from onset.

We all wanted Osinbajo, politicians dont want him and you think only APC doesn't want him. I'd rather you say Buhari failed us than say APC. It is Buhari that let this Tinubu to become president.

OBJ did well, he picked the right man to lead, and picked a good man to be the Vice. The good vice was to weak, and had no clear ambition while lacking will. Lack of will and misled by a cabal led to Buhari who ppl thought will have will and breakaway from cabal. Buhari ended up too sick to care or outrightly scared to take the bull by its horns. His attitude brought the disaster.

If anyone thinks this disaster is the end, wait for the next one. It will not end until we come together leaving our religious and ethnic dispositions to the side. Until the day an independent man can become president and not through political ranks, that's when our fate will reveal.

princepee:
This hezebolar no even get level..
Packing all their commanders in one room for Israel to roast.
Death to all terrorist.

Now dem go fear to greet themselves in the streets.

Krismas:
All what you wrote is RUBBISH
Hezbollah is a political party in Lebanon and the government of Lebanon supports their actions.
Hamas is the government of Gaza. The political sovereign over Gaza.
There is no comparison between Hezbollah or Hamas with boko haram.
Israel is a sovereign state? Where is the land borders of Israel? A useless country built on stolen lands that is not internationally recognized by the vast majority of countries in this world. HOW IS ISRAEL A SOVEREIGN STATE?

Finally, the reveal.

If you don't know

HOW IS ISRAEL A SOVEREIGN STATE?

, i cannot help you.

Krismas:
Infact Hezbollah fired 200more this morning. If u have sense, why not ask, if Israel is truly targeting Hezbollah, why is hezbollah still firing missiles everyday since almost one year now?
Israel said the pager explosions was against Hezbollah? Hezbollah fired 100 missiles immediately after dat! So did the pager explosions kill? Israel does not know where to find Hezbollah. They just kill civilians and LIE that they have killed Hezbollah

In the first place, why is Hezbollah, an islamist political party and paramilitary group in Lebanon, engaged in a war with a sovereign state? Where is the state of Lebanon in the conflict? Why is Hamas, with same definition engaged in a war?

Imagine if APC declares itself an islamist political party with Boko Haram as its paramilitary group. What will you expect?

You need to ask yourself these relevant questions before you start to ask why Israel is doing the things they do without repercussions. These groups have no legitimacy but they engage in a war beyond the purview of their existence. Russia vs Ukraine is state against state, that's why Russia has sanctions. The is no reason for UN or any international body to act when it comes to Hamas or Hezbollah because there is no way to legitimately recognize them, and they say they fight for civilians but use the same civilians as shield.

Put yourself in Israels shoe, imagine if Boko haram is a political party and paramilitary group in Chad, you will support Nigeria if Boko haram base in chad is bombed with Chadian civilians inside. Imagine if you are chadian, will you live in the vicinity of Boko harams base let alone the building itself? I will be far front it.

A spade is a spade, and a shovel is not a spade. Know the difference.

Say what you want, the war cannot end without legitimate interventions, Hezbollah and hamas doesn't have that and will never. Lebanon and its people can.resolve it internally but not externally.

I dont understand anyone not in support of Israel. You send 140 missiles into Israel and say they are on rampage?

How can you want to kill people but they kill your people and you say they are wrong?

HardMirror:
while you took time to make sense. Nigeria governance is not theory, it is reality.
This is the reality: THE MORE FX FG GENERATES, THEY MORE THEY WILL SPEND. THERE WILL NEVER BE ANYTHING LIKE EXCESS. BECAUSE THEY SPEND MORE AND MORE, IT WOULD NOT MATTER THAT THEY SAVE ANYTHING.

I quite agree.

Whatever positives we get from these, they will find a way to waste it.

HardMirror:
Yesterday i saw a thread on front page saying "SELL YOUR DOLLARS NOW!"

THIS IS LAUGHABLE BECAUSE THAT THREAD IS WRITTEN BY SOMEONE THAT DOES NOT UNDERSTAND NIGERIA'S ECONOMY.


Nigeria makes money from FX rate. This is because we earn in dollars but spend in Naira.

With the current exchange rate, FG has more Naira to spend and they can pay more salaries and cover other expenditures which are all in naira.

If the exchange rate should go down, it means the FG will have less naira to spend


Read what senator Ali Ndume said here.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/02/fg-benefiting-from-dollar-to-naira-spike-ndume/

I think you miss a point. You need to understand how the value of one currency is converted to another. Its is actually from the strength of the economy supporting both currency.

Imagine a situation where the dollar has lost value that those who hold dollars in Nigeria are loosing its value every day. Imagine at the same time zero import. Imagine zero school fees abroad, no medical tourism or travelling. All these mean the dollar will be useless in Nigeria. It means everyone will prefer to hold Naira. In that case naira is stronger than dolar.

Whats the actual case, we import nearly everything. The worst thing is that, the entire forex Nigeria earns in a day, nearly 40% of it is used to import petroleum products and another say 30% is used to pay subsidy or the new shortfall.

This means that over half of Nigeria's FX income is spent right back to get petrol etc. It doesn't even reach CBN.

The balance is what NNPC gives CBN. The demand for dollar in Nigeria for other imports, contracts, foreign services, fx reserve, budget etc is what causes scarcity of the dollar. Demand and supply now takes over, the higher the demand for dollars, the weaker the Naira.

Check this out. If CBN decides to give BDCs $1billion today, tomorrow morning, Naira will gain value. If CBN does that for the next 1yr, that's $365billion, Naira will be stronger than the dollar, but we cant because CBN doesn't have that kind of money.

So that's where local refining comes in. For CBN to get more money, we need to cut down on the demand for dollars. We extract our crude, sell to Dangote in Naira, pay him to refine, supply Nigerians in Naira. We essentially bypass dollars and the errors of the exchange rate, we dont pay freight for crude to and from foreign refineries, we dont pay any duties, profits or any such to another country. This means we have saved a lot just by dealing in Naira.

That means whatever percentage of fx that we earn and spend on petroleum resources has just gone into the wind. The real effect is say we produce 600m barrels of crude, send 300m barrels to malta for refining to get back 40m barrels of petrol, local refining may cost 200m barrels for the same quantity of petrol. Now we save 100m barrels of crude to sell 400m barrels and CBN gets more than before. This dollars saved is going to remove some dollar demand etc.

gbengene1234:
How did we get here?

We got here when a new president before getting to his office decided to disrupt a stable economy.

He f.cked up but he will never admit and he doesn't even have a clue how to get us back to where he met us.

GeneralDae:

NNPC would be losing fx from that 20% it’s selling at a subsidized level. So if NNPC refines that crude and sells it at 500 locally when they could have sold it at 900, they lose a massive profit and gain little compared to exporting that crude for dollars but if they sell closer to 900, then that may be better for them.

Why are you saying for them?

Is NNPC not a public entity? Are they not supposed to serve Nigerians? If they sell at 900, the extra they get still belongs to Nigerians. If they sell at 500, it is still for Nigerians. If at 500, the economy will stabilise and Naira becomes strong but sells at 900 and Naira becomes weak, which is preferable?

What's the benefit of selling the crude at the detriment of our economy?

Don't forget that most of the dollars they earn gets paid back to import fuel. If they don't import and sell the remaining crude, the dollars can be used for other things we don't produce and then most of the dollars remain in the country making us rich. As long as we import, we can't be rich.

Are you aware that our govt's decision to prefer to sell our crude instead of refining thinking it will make Nigeria richer is the reason Nigerian economy is steadily declining? That's what you want but it will never be better. Our consumption is too high for the dollar we earn to be saved.

GeneralDae:

When you speak of local production, you must also consider that crude oil is priced globally using $. So the production of crude oil in Nigeria is priced in dollars, so even when we refine locally there is this temptation to set it at the international price.

That's in the case of private refineries.

Let me explain.

Say IOCs extract crude and give Nigeria 60% of it. Assuming 20% is enough for local refining and every derivative is gotten from it locally. We have our own pipelines to transport to refineries. The only FX need in the entire process is for maintenance equipment and training. This means that the price of all refined products is at least 80% independent of FX. It means one thing, that the 40% crude left will be sold for FX, and the pressure on the Naira is off because of refining.

Nigeria will now earn more than the demand for dollars to always import. Do you know that to build roads, we import Bitumen, a product of refining. Do you know we import fertilizer to farm, another product of refining. Imagine the huge list of imported products that we don't need dollars to import.

If you talk about the temptation to sell petrol at international price, let me ask you this. Does a farmer sell all his farm produce and go back to the farm to buy? Or does the farmer sell food to his family at market price? A farmer stores his entire produce, sells from his store as needed to buy other things he doesn't produce. He doesn't save money in the bank but produce in the barn. Price of farm produce go up because once a farmer needs goods or services, his produce must provide and that will determine the price he sells.

Therefore Nigeria will sell refined products to Nigerians not for profit, but for the good of our economy. As it is, there is profit in transporting our crude to refine in a far away country, there is tax to that country, there is profit for that refinery which will also pay tax, there is profit and tax to export finished products to Nigeria, lastly, there is transportation back to Nigeria. All this profit and tax could easily amount to half of the cost per liter we pay. All these will be eliminated with local refining.

There is no way we can pay for fuel at international price if we refine.

Even Dangote cant sell at international price.

nairalanda1:


We would have enough fuel in the abscence of subsidy because

1. It would become more profitable to produce fuel at home

2. No more losses in the petrol line

As for our currency...if you want a strong currency, manufactured goods and services.




And this morning, the news came in. A massive deficit, due to debt servicing. Increased spending on subsidy is a part of the reason why.




Well, produce fuel, sell it below the production cost, start skipping TAM to keep subsidy costs low....you get the resulting damage to refineries...because not enough profit to keep them running



Deficit.




Simple. Fuel costs less than 1000 here and more than 1000 elsewhere. Smuggling results.

Plus the susbidy has not gone.




If you want a subsidy, government revenue has to jump up to the point where we can sustain a budget of over 100 trillion naira, and even then, it would be for people who really really need it.

Hey, didn't Tinubu removed the subsidy? Why do you think they are backtracking? Wake up. Didn't Tinubu say in his Nation wide broadcast that they were saving huge money? Go back and listen to him again.

Did he talk about inflation. What's the use of all the money if the very currency you saved in has lost value? How come they are even saving in Naira?

It seems you believe government officials you see on TV, believe them at your peril.

There is no manufacturing and factories in any country that doesn't produce energy. This subsidy matter is not even an issue for discuss, the day I see our refineries working is the day I know we have a serious govt.

Right now, they will pay subsidy through their nose, you are really underestimating how subsidy has stabilized the economy over the yrs. GEJ and Buhari tried but they both failed. Tinubu tried and he has failed woefully. Anyone who tries to remove subsidy will just cripple the economy.

The day one serious government focuses on refining, that's the way to freedom.

nairalanda1:



You also don't get that keeping the subsidy is

1. Consuming a large amount of our forex

2. Creating issues with budgeting

3. Stifling local production of fuel because it is unprofitable to produce fuel here

4. Millions upon billions of losses to the petroleum sector.

5. A large criminal problem re smuggling.

Nothing comes cheap.

Let me itemise my reply respectively.

1. Yes, it was consuming a large amount of Forex. Are you aware subsidy is back and they are spending more than double the amount they were paying before Tinubu removed it? Do you have an idea how much fuel will be if there is no subsidy? Our economy will be dead, 500k minimum wage will not even work. Our currency will be worst than Ghana. Subsidy was very important for the stability of the economy, the only way that government was supposed to remove it is not by outright removal and palliatives, the only way is local production.

2. There has never been budgeting issues, NNPC is simply too corrupt to function well. Revenue projection is the backbone of budgeting but with NNPC that is not transparent with or without subsidy, government will always have a challenge. Subsidy is not the issue of budgets.

3. Subsidy is not the reason local production of petroleum products has failed. It is corruption and greed. Look at exactly how they are treating the Dangote refinery, isn't it obvious that there are some people that don't want us to refine crude?

4. How is the loss of revenue the result of subsidy. It is simple corruption. Removal of subsidy is like throwing away a baby with the bath water.

5. Has the smuggling ended by removal of subsidy. When Buhari close all land borders, the smuggling reduced to the minimum, we all saw it. So how is subsidy responsible for smuggling?

You have to understand that subsidy is not a bad thing. It is the people incharge that are responsible for all the issues. Tinubu said revenue doubled since the removal, what he didn't say is that inflation also doubled and the entire additional revenue he saved has no value.

nairalanda1:


Facing refineries involves removing subsidy otherwise the refineries won't be profitable at all.

Also if all our refineries were working and government continues it's shortfall workaround with nnpc refineries, it would become difficult for private refineries to make a profit and stay in business. Especially since they have no access to government money.

All you have said doesn't make sense. You need to know why subsidy was created in the first place.

What's is subsidy?

It is a sum of money granted by the state or a public body to help an industry or business keep the price of a commodity or service low.


Why is the price of petrol high that the government needs to make it low? It is simply because we import it which relies on Forex, the Forex we have no control over. How do you end the the underlying cause of subsidy, by removing the very thing that created it, import.

If you don't get this, we will talk till His kingdom comes and there will be no head way.O

IbeOkehie:


Local production has nothing to do with subsidy. Even if Nigeria has a thousand refineries, we still have to pay a price close to world price. Anything else will create big problems.

Good Luck to Nigeria

What you don't understand is, whatever we pay in dollars is the problem of our country. Why do you think Government bans imports of certain things we can produce. Essentially is to keep what you earn for things you can't produce.

The real problem is that refined petroleum products are the group of the biggest dollars expenditure of earned dollars by Nigeria is spent.

If NNPC refineries produce these refined products, the pump price is not determined by international prices. Cost of production, yes, but NNPC can sell to Nigerians at below or above cost of production without having to pay a dime to anyone. And it's all in Naira. So the dollars we earn can only make Nigeria rich and comfortable in importation of all other things we need.

To save dollars is not by stopping subsidy, its by spending less dollars.

nairalanda1:


On subsidy removal and floating the naira, there was nothing that could be done. (That is why some of us believe that subsidy should have gone since 2012, even since 1993)

Years , nay decades of trying to keep subsides and keep the naira strong at all costs had led to a situation where the national debt was eating 99% of our revenue. At the end, whoever was in charge was going to make some harsh decisions.

This is not about defending tinubu, as I don't support him or any of the candidates, and even believe that APC should have been kicked out last year, but at the point we were, keeping subsides or lkeeping a strong naira was not sustainable.

Again, we should have made these decisions over ten years ago.

I still opine that subsidy was and is not the problem. Refineries are the real problem. NNPC itself is another problem. The aim of subsidy is to stabilize the economy,

Tinubu insisted he removed subsidy but we know he couldn't have, if he actually did, our economy would have been in ashes. That's why 2012 didn't succeed. Both GEJ and Buhari saw it and retracted. Until we produce our petroleum products, subsidy will exist, anything else will result in an economic crash. No one wants to crash the economy of Nigeria. Tinubu has seen it but he failed in returning it quicker.

Mark my words, subsidy can only go away with functional refineries.

Any president who doesn't face squarely our refineries, will fail.

Cock and bull story.

You buy something for 1k, government tells you to sell it to us at half the price, who pays the balance. Whomever paid the the other half for you to remain in a profitable business is subsidizing petrol.

They can use stupid words to like but it's obvious.

Tinubu is a one time president. What he did to Nigeria by himself cannot be undone by even returning the things he took.

Pojaay:
Why are there Northerners appointed in the management team of a Niger Delta Power Holding Company? What is the rationale behind this? Conversely, how many Southerners are members of the Northern Region Development Agencies?
Irritating political hegemony from a region that only enforces dominance through entitlement rather than competence. That’s why we have a disintegrated and barely functional economy.

This is a very very low opinion you shared and it has exposed your ignorance just like a police man did to me some years ago.

I was an Engineer supervising NDPHC/NIPP projects in Akwa ibom. I was driving an official car with a large door sticker and written in bold NIGER DELTA and Power Holding Company below in small letters, followed by NIPP.

At a police check point going to one of the project sites, the police man asked me where I was from, I said, Kaduna (given away by my dark complexion). He then asked, "why you a northerner is driving our car?"

His ignorance was excused because he most likely only finished secondary school and doesn't know better. But for you, it's just a shame.

You have internet, Google NDPHC/NIPP. It is not a Niger Delta company nor does it's obligations limited to Niger Delta region. We have NDPHC projects in the north and by extension spread in the entire country. Niger Delta Power Holding Company has no relationship with Niger Delta Region.

This is from their website.

NDPHC is incorporated under the Companies and Allied Matters Act as a private limited liability company with shareholding fully subscribed to by the Federal, state and Local Governments with a mandate to manage the power projects tagged 'National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP)'.

demola2100:
Found the gigantic snake in my backyard trying to crawl it way inside the nearby bush, so sluggish with it movement and justice was made to it in no time. This kind of snake shouldn't just bite you because it can be very lethal as we have alot of children in the environment.

Oga, this is one snake you should not kill. It's harmless and you can sell as pet for some cash.

RepoMan007:
Keyamo don follow OTO dey do nairaland influencing??
Air peace is a private business. Nigeria don cast, they have more important traffic inflow to allot Heathrow.

Is British airways not private too?

Itzlinda:


Unfortunately petroleum isn't the only item needed to run the country. We need electricity, health and road other amenities. So if we continue paying subsidies it means less money to fund these infrastructure development.

Unless you opined that we should ignore building bridges and fund cheaper energy and dollar. I may agree with you on that.

I believe some of the money we are borrowing building bridges absolutely needles and what has crashed the economy.

Progress is measured by economic indices not length of roads or number of bridges constructed.

It is your level of progress that determines what infrastructure you can afford to build without your economy crashing down.

Buhari came with his infrastructure campaign and crash the economy leaving us with humongous debt to service.

My anger was Nigerians should have occupied the roads when these lootings were done and bad policies were implemented, not now that we are seeing the culminating effect.

Northerners did not protest for Buhari with all his atrocities, it's now that yoruba is in power for less than one year that they want protest

You still do not get my point.

Subsidy came because of the failure of NNPC. Check the definition of subsidy. Don't you think all these palliatives, CNG kit is just a waste of resources that can never make an impact on the current state of the economy.

Yes petroleum is not the only thing needed to run a country. But it's the biggest single item expenditure in Nigeria. It is also one item that every one uses one way or another. Petrol is the one single item that the entire economy depends on (remember, we are generator republic). The price of petrol determines garri in the market. What product has that coverage? Non. That means it can cause inflation. Price of wheat can not cause inflation but petrol, diesel, fertilizer, electricity can. All these are petroleum products or dependent in the case of electricity. These are the candidates for controling the economy and keeping goods and services low, hence, subsidy. Don't tell me Buhari removed subsidy, it was just a trap for Tinubu and Tinubu didn't use an economic team to see a picture of the implication. He could have reintroduced it if he knew where he was heading. He went in blindly, first hr in office.

One thing for sure is in our income is majorly from one thing, petroleum. This income is shrouded in secrecy. The accounts of NNPC is for the president's eyes only.

What I am talking about is income and expenditure. Our major income is in dollars, our main major expenditure (petroleum) is in dollars too, that's very inconvenient if you ask me. Unfortunately, the books of this dollars is a secret. NNPC is the sole income receiver of Nigeria's income and they have the sole responsibility of the biggest expenditure. Do you get the point. What is left is what CBN gets and that is what is public. Every thing about NNPC is a secret. A lot of stealing is going on there. But what they are telling us is that we need to suffer because they are not making enough money. Believe it at your own peril.

To make NNPC more accountable is to remove that expenditure from NNPC and they will not steal so easy.

The ultimate point I am making is that Petrol was N195 when Tinubu took over, inflation was 18% dollar was N450, today fuel is N820 and inflation is 34%, dollar is N1,500. The single thing that drove all these is petrol.

Now we are paying N820, the economy is in shambles but he has saved N9trillion. The problem is that the value of 9trillion today is about N4.5trillio n before he became president. There for the subsidy removal just took Nigeria backwards and his ability to provide those other things like electricity, infrastructure, education etc has not changed despite have more money.

It's like this, you have a salary of 100k in 2022 and a bag of rice is 10k, you can afford it right. But inflation took the price of rice to 90k in 2024 but you salary is still 100k. Can you afford a bag of rice?

Just as we can't afford things the government will also have to pay more for the things they used to do cheap. Are we moving forward? No. It's called penny wise pound foolish.

Itzlinda:


I agree. But if we are not borrowing to fund them. My argument is as long as we are borrowing to fund them. It is common logic that there will come a time when we cannot afford to borrow.

Even Sanusi has predicted exactly same scenario when we won't be able to afford the borrowing but everyone turn deaf ear because nobody wants hear the truth.

It was the same structure at nnpc that was funding subsidy despite the corruption, didn't you asked why are they unable to do it now.

Buhari already removed subsidy in the budget because it was unsustainable. Tinubu only came at the wrong time.

Both the candidates pledges to remove subsidy and float naira. Because they checked the finances and it's not possible to sustain.

The only way out for us if we want afford subsidy is to increase our daily production or we miraculously pray for crude oil prices to go up.

Petrol is not the only thing we import, there's medicine, wheat and other supplies.

I don't blame nnpc for disfunctional refineries. I blame political will from leaders.

Algeria with a lesser population has a 5 functional refineries.
What has stopped Nigeria from doing same?

Is nnpc above petroleum minister?

Nigeria is just corrupt country with everyone looking for his pocket only. As we collectively run the country dry. We are now looking for scapegoat to blame

Do you know exactly how much they earn from crude? Do you know exactly how much subsidy they pay? Why is it how much they borrow that they want to tell us? It doesn't add up.

I don't believe they borrow to pay subsidy. There is no way the entire money they earn from crude sales will be less than the what they spend on petrol. Who pays the subsidy, it is NNPC. It's not CBN or ministry of finance. They pay it even before remitting to CBN. Is the NNPC borrowing money? No.

So what's happening, subsidy is not their priority because of the huge bill. To convince you they tell you we borrow to pay it. They can't tell you they borrow to buy or maintain their private jets or estacodes. To do away with someone or something, just paint it black. They are not borrowing, period.

Take this anywhere, petrol and other refined petroleum produce is the biggest and most expensive things that consumes our FX. The fact that every commodity and service in this country depends on it should tell you what it can do do the economy. You use petroleum products to process the wheat.


The only blame I have for political leaders is the lack of political will. Otherwise, the blame is actually on all of us individually. All those in NNPC, are they not Nigerians. The importers, are they not Nigerians. The corruption is in every office in this country.

If the president makes a scapegoat of one or two people. People will think twice.

Itzlinda:



I don't think they make our economy stable. They only make living expenses cheaper for the resident. If it was stable, we won't have to borrow to fund the subsidy and fix dollar rate. Dollar was 700 in black market while official rate was 450. I don't know how this translate the economy.

If you are borrowing to sell cheaper petrol and dollars to the resident and you call it stable economy, then I don't know what your definition of stability is.

The fact is our woes started after obasanjo regime when we fixed the dollar rate we cannot defend.

The dollar rate should have changed immediately we started noticing weakness in our economy due to fallen oil price but the politicians don't want look bad and kept borrowing to mask the real issue on ground.

With exploding import dependant economy, lower oil prices and output, not even Jesus can fixed dollar at 400 and petrol at 180 in Nigeria

Yes dey do make a stable economy. Is it a coincidence that immediately fuel subsidy was removed, astronomical high inflation set in without control that has almost doubled in a year. Immediately after removal of subsidy, the black market FX put too much pressure on the Naira that the fixed rate (subsidy rate) couldn't be maintained so they had to remove that one too.

It's a ripple effect. I am sure you don't see the link between petrol and the economy. What is economy? Simply, the careful management of resources. The key word is resources. The biggest waste of our resources (dollars) is the importation of refined petroleum. What is subsidy? Simply, money by state or govt to keep commodities and service low. See the link by Google: In economic theory, subsidies can be used to offset market failures and externalities to achieve greater economic efficiency.

What has Tinubu done, he removed the very things that maintained the economy and left the market failures to continue wrecking havoc. To remove subsidy, you first end the market failure. What's is the market failure, local refining. Subsidy started when refineries failed, logically it should end when we start refining.

It's simple, how do we get petrol in Nigeria? With dollars. How do we earn dollars? Majorly from crude. Who is incharge of the up, mid and downstream, just one company called NNPC. It is fair to say what ever happens at NNPC, our economy depends on it. There are 3 major things at NNPC, crude, dollars and import of refined crude. All these are done in dollars without accountability. The bulk of the corruption is in NNPC crude deals and the import deals. The import deals consumes our dollar revenue. Only the balance gets to CBN and this is always little.

Imagine if you give a fraudulent car driver your car to use for commercial transport and remit pure profit. 95% of drivers in Nigeria will ruin your car in less than a year and you will still not recoup the investment. Fake repair bills, reckless driving etc. That is what NNPC is doing. Subsidy is not the problem, NNPC is the whole problem. See the problem; we sell crude and earn dollars, we send importers to go and buy refined oils, they go to CBN and get dollars at subsidized rate, they supply and NNPC pays them subsidy from the crude sales, before NNPC remits the rest to CBN. These importers earn double subsidy.

From the 3 major things NNPC is responsible, remove one and see how government revenue will increase. That thing is import of petrol, diesel etc. by producing locally. Both subsidy from CBN and NNPC are earn by the same people. Eliminate the corruption and everything about supply of petroleum products ends there. What remains is just earning dollars and it goes straight to CBN.

I ask again, the same NNPC that made sure not one of our refineries is service is the same NNPC blocking Dangote refinery from work. They want him to buy crude far from Nigeria at international rates so that when his products hit the market, it will be more expensive such that it will not be sustainable while they deceive us that it's cheaper to import.

Instead of subsidy, produce it. We have everything.

Thekaghan:
I expect a diplomatic solution on these issues. Isreal can’t fight war on three fronts it will be catastrophic

Israel knows the US is around, at their backs, waiting to swoop in if Israel cries for help. Iran knows, that they will just give US excuse to enter Iran if they go full fledge war.

Lebanon wants to show they are not weak, deep down they know every action they take will be met with twice the reactive force. For how long can they continue to behave like a pawn of Iran when Iran itself is out of guts.

If there's a cease fire, it will not be at the behest of Israel.

Zwooks:




This is what we get as a nation when we fail to produce quality students who can patiently read, comprehend and interpret information accurately. Your comment is direct reflection of your poor reading and brain storming skill, the underlying course of your stunted life and existence. If you refuse to read, ordinary read that is free, how can your life be meaningful?


Go and read to understand and stop broadcasting your foolery. Olodo

You have not made a single point. Read what you wrote and see if you made a single point that would encourage me to go back and read. There's absolutely nothing, what makes you better?

I may be an olodo, but you seem to be more.

I'd rather buy Dangote bad fuel than for them to import good fuel.

They know why they are fighting Dangote.

Imagine this, if Dangote gets Nigerian crude in Naira, refines and sells in Nigeria in Naira, Dollars will not be involved and Nigeria will not waste it's FX on importation. Naira value will increase and their dollar rein and corruption will end.

Let's support Nigeria and deal with Dangote later with NNPC refineries and other independent refineries.

That's the only to move Nigeria forward.

membranus:


In spite of your analysis above, you forgot one key thing that actually drove the prices of goods and services haywire, much more than the subsidy removal. This is the removal of the Naira/Dollar exchange dichotomy. Where the double exchange rates of Naira to Dollar was removed to a floating exchange rate. Nigeria being a import dependent economy could not withstand the removal of government prop to our Naira which the importers were hitherto enjoying.

Also the large domestic and international debts left by the Buhari government also contributed to the present terrible state of the economy. And not forgetting the banditry and the insurgency in the northern regions which chased the farmers out of the farms and drove the prices of food item sky high.

No, I did not forget, it is half of the problem. If you check the post I made after this one, you will see I mentioned both. I mentioned the duo, subsidy for petrol and fixed fX. Both of them are subsidies. Yes Buhari had gulped a huge chuck of the Foreign reserve to these 2. But my point is, these 2 are not the main problem.

These 2 are like a bucket used to fetch water. Imagine the bucket having 1000 little holes. What you need is water. These holes releases the water back to the well.

If refineries are working, we mine our crude, send to refineries, they produce all petroleum products locally. What else do we need dollars for? Only to import cars, machinery and things we don't produce. Instead what are we doing, the entire FX we earn goes to buy petrol. Petrol is not the only thing on subsidy. Fertilizer too. How can we farm without fertilizer? The fixed FX rate, we subsidize for those who need it, who needs it? Only the wealthy. Why do you think the black market exist? Because there is an unending demand. They take their stolen Naira to buy the subsidize dollars. Imagine dollar officially at N450 but black market is 750. That means government is paying N300 to keep our economy stable. What do the wealthy do?Round tripping. Take N5billion to CBN, they give the wealthy man 11mill dollars at N450 who takes it back to black market and sells at N8.3billion. That's 3.3 billion of Nigeria's money in one man's pocket in a day. Several other ways these subsidy ends up in a person's pocket.

But you can't throw a baby with the bath water, you do what, keep the baby and throw out the dirty water. You stop the fixed FX subsidy, the FX market gets pushed around like football. That's what is going on now.

The real problem again is not fixing the FX or other subsidies, it is those who use the system to make serious money out of it. You stopped subsidy, the bill of their corruption gets passed down into the final price of petrol or the dollar rate, hence inflation and economic disaster. Penny wise pound foolish. What has the removal achieved nothing.

What's the way forward? Refine our own crude. We automatically kill all those bastards looting us dry. What we earn stays in our pocket. We revive education and health, we stop going out and the dollar bills only come in and not go out. Industrialization and agriculture will automatically set in.

That first kick is what they won't allow, latest news is that NNPC is looking for crude backed loan. Crude they are supposed to give Dangote.

jesusjnr2020:
Forbidden Sex-mates: 12 Sets Of People You Must Never Have Sex With

1. Married Men: Never have sex with a married man no matter what. Never!

2. Bosses: Never agree to have sex with your boss. If the harassment becomes too much, resign and trust God for a better job.

3. Followers/Mentees: God put people under your care to mentor or Pastor, it is better you die than to have sex with them. Never take advantage of God's people no matter what.

4. Married Women: Never have sex with a married woman. If you are getting too much attached via chatting, official or academic rapport, break up the closeness or whatever name you have for it.

5. Lecturers: Never have sex with your lecturers. Sex for grades or marks is for nonentity. You are not. Never must you be.

6. Clients: If you are a marketer, never agree to sleep with a prospective client just to meet your official target. Never!

7. In-Laws: Never have sex with your in-laws. If he or she stays with you and you are finding it difficult to resist the pull, let him or her leave. I mean latest tomorrow.

8. Neighbors: Never have sex with your neighbour or colleague. A neighbour is a neighbour. A colleague is a colleague. Don't get your life more complicated.

9. Platonic Friends: Never have sex with your platonic friend. If the relationship is no longer platonic, break up the thing.

10. Same Sex: God created sex to be between male and female, so you must never have sex with your same gender. God is against homosexuality and so should you.

11. Siblings: Never have sex with your sibling or relatives. Incest is vile.

12. Girlfriends/Boyfriends: Never have sex with your girlfriend or your boyfriend.

God did not create sex for love relationships. He created it for MARRIAGE. Matthew 19:4-6

So the only sex you should have is with your married partner.

God bless.

Source: https://www.facebook.com/100006858755744/posts/pfbid02RNYkP7ujMDg5trjKoePvmK7ARfr4PS3ibgxP8upCTk5U9y7qLdPrzivuovkmrpPrl/?app=fbl

Funny that this list is long but the list of those you can have sex with is just 1.

Itzlinda:

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The question was can we really afford subsidy? Buhari was borrowing to fund subsidy and defend naira which exactly was the reason why at a point almost all our revenue goes to debt servicing?

How long can we continue down that road?
.
Do you think what's happening in Venezuelan or Zimbabwe isn't possible in Nigeria?

The duo of Subsidy and fixed Forex was what kept our economy stable.

I still insist, these 2 were not the problem. If we make more money, than these 2 take, we will still be growing.

The rogue elephant had been the responsibility of government to deal with. What did they do, government just transferred the burden of corruption from is accounts in CBN to the accts of all Nigerians. Do you understand?

We need petrol, it's either government pay part we pay part or we pay all. Govt chose we pay all. How does it affect the corruption. As long as the money is paid, corruption continues.

What he ought to have done is to remove subsidy when dollar is not involved. When is that, when we extract our oil, refine it and make available at pumps, all locally. That was the way and it's still the only way.

Why do you think they don't want Dangote refinery to work. They want to continue to deal petrol in dollars. In dollars means that what we earn should be spent on petrol.

As long as we pay dollar for diesel, petrol, gas, fertilizer, lubricants and all other petroleum products there will be no positive effect of any economic policy.

Subsidy should have ended naturally with local production.

The entire money Tinubu thinks he saved is wasted through inflation. He has to pay more salaries now, all contracts have gone up. It's the same saying, "penny-wise pound foolish".

Salewa97:
Baba Tinubu, you dey talk true!

Removing fuel subsidy is a bold step towards fixing our economy for the future. Those temporary fixes have only held us back for too long. We need a leader who can make tough choices for the betterment of Nigeria. Let the protesters shout; true progress always comes with discomfort. We stand with you, Mr. President!

Not true talk. Before the removal of subsidy, I have said it every chance I had that subsidy is not a bad thing, the problem with subsidy is the process and how NNPC has corrupted it. By removing the subsidy, govt accumulates more money thinking it will be a good thing, no, the corrupted NNPC transferred their greed through petroleum resources to Nigerians. This made inflation rise and at the end of the day, Naira fell.

In summary, Tinubu thinks he saved N9trillion, what's the value of N9trillion compared to what it was 2 yrs ago. Naira has lost 70% of its value under Tinubu. His 9trillion is actually same with 2.7trillion 2 yrs ago.

It's either the economist working with him are not qualified or they all have an ulterior motive to sell this country.

Inflation is still in the hands of NNPC, he can tackle them and real progress can begin or corrupt them more and we will never get out of it. The height of Inflation is a reflection of the amount of money earned by nigeria legitimately but stolen and illegitimately taken out of Nigeria. Look at it this way, the inflation resembles a country that has stopped earning. The burden is poverty on citizens.

Zionmdde:

Ok. So let the people in Nigeria enjoy then. Why the protest again? Let those with opened eyes go and buy fuel 180 na

Where u dey abeg? It seems u no dey Naija.

You pretend like what happens in Nigeria does not affect you but I know know it does and there's nothing u can do about it.