₦airaland Forum

eziokwunwoko:
aj8: Good afternoon sir.
What is Common Sense theory on Conhall Q1 2026 result

Please note from the Q 1 earnings report statement, that Consolidated Hallmark earnings are not entirely organic as 18.4 billion is ascribed to Net fair value gains. This will have to be deducted to give a fairer position. Also, insurance revenue fell in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025. Please ignore the EPS of 184.64 kobo. Without the above, the result should be way south. I hope the above will guide your further action.

ojeysky:
With 3.69 EPS ACCESS still shows that ACCESS is the cheapest among the top tier banks, but am not sure its management are ready to manage the bank better. I also hate the game they played by claiming they will pay dividend when they must have known that it is not going to happen. It is one thing to be silent on dividend payment its another thing to clearly state intention to pay. Non-payment of dividend cannot move access to 73. Number 1 reason people invest in banks is for dividends, share price growth is secondary.

You may be right sir, but I don't agree. Valuations are based on future earnings and prospects. It's a good thing that the books of all the banks are being cleaned up by a strong regulator, the CBN. In my opinion, Wema Bank seems the most organic and is being rewarded more than others. Purely my opinion. Those who understand the game will buy from those who do not. Dare to sell at CP and see if you won't find a buyer. So who is right, the one selling or the one buying? Only the future can answer that question.
I didn't say however it won't drop but only in the short term if ever it does because of those selling on this above notion creating a selling pressure. Which by the way is good for those who see prospects and are ready to buy from those who do not.

Sometimes, people forget the 100 good things you did but remember and crucify the one thing you didn't do only for the subject to continue on to do good. Apply that to UBA and Access, NB, Nestle, MTN, Guinness, and so many others. Look to the future, it's so bright you may need a sunshade.

purity2all:
Well done, sir.

Is tye third one Access bank?

Yes

Wema=39.50
GTCO=117.80
STANBIC=143
UBA=62.20
ACCESS =73.80
ETI=104.20
ZENITH=152.80

On Common Sense. Any doing below 5% dividend are likely to tick slightly lower in the short term but will eventual soar when the past is overtaken by future hope.

Continued

No further comments. Purely on earnings…after the noise, each should find its value. Just Common Sense.

Mankind2024:
From a Joke to a Journey: The Quiet Power of Discipline and Compounding.

A Personal Reflection
In 2022, I reconnected via WhatsApp with a university friend I hadn’t seen since 2012. It was shortly after the birth of my daughter—my third and last child. I often say, half in prayer and half in gratitude, that I do not wish for another child as my wife refused to sterilize and also dislike family planning, may God, in His infinite mercy, bless those who desire children with their own. Amen.
During our conversation, he casually asked, “When are you visiting the US?”
Without thinking, I replied jokingly, “When the profits from my US portfolio are enough to fund a trip for my family of five.”
At the time, it was nothing more than a lighthearted remark. In truth, I had never even applied for a Nigerian passport before, let alone seriously considered traveling abroad. I am anti- JAPA.
My entire US portfolio was worth less than $1,000.
But something changed.
As I grew in entrepreneurial wisdom, knowledge, and understanding—driven by a strong conviction for FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early)—things began to take shape. I made a conscious decision to take control of my financial destiny. I tuned out the noise:
“The US market is overpriced.”
“The dollar is losing dominance.”
“China has taken over.”
“A massive bear market will crash the NYSE.”
“The US economy is unsustainable for her deficit.”
“BRICS will replace the West.”
Through it all, I remained disciplined, consistent, and patient—allowing time to do what it does best: compound.
I look back at moments that could have shaken me:
The August 2024 market dip (BlackMonday), when my portfolio was down over $11,000—deep in the red. I did nothing.
The 2026 ongoing strait of Hormuz war between Iran, US and Israel, alongside global tensions and Oil blockades when my US portfolio dropped by over $17,000. Still, I held firm.
No panic selling. No emotional decisions. In fact, in 2026, I have not made a new US investments—only reinvested dividends.
Today, as I reflect on this journey, I find myself nurturing a new ambition: exploring the United States. I don’t know exactly when it will happen, but I am confident it will. And when it does, I’ll share those moments without my pictures —perhaps even photos titled “Mankind2024 in the US.”
What once started as a joke is gradually becoming a possibility.
Here’s the most powerful part: without touching my capital, the unrealized gains from my portfolio alone could now fund a holiday with return trip from Nigeria to the US for a family of five.
If there’s one thing I hope this story conveys, it’s this: there is power in vision, discipline, and affirmation. Stay the course. Let time and consistency work in your favor.

Congratulations Mankind2024. May your expressed ambition and many more not yet expressed, come to pass by His Grace. I just want to add a point or two to your very well-written reflection.
Compounding is good, the 8th wonder of the world. But it doesn’t always need to be passive, it can be active or even aggressive. In trading, the phrase 'take profit off the table' exists for a reason: trends can reverse instantly when economic momentum shifts. While some markets recover quickly, others take decades. A stock falling from 100 to 4 might eventually return to 200, but only if time is on your side. While there are 'forever' stocks where I’m happy to stay in the passenger seat, I believe in remaining vigilant. If the fundamentals or prospects decline, I prefer to exit without sentiment and pivot to fresh opportunities with higher growth potential. Compounding continues but actively leaving only my failed attempts to run passively but still given fuel by prayers and hope.

Happy Workers Day

I can't thank you enough for those audiobooks you share from time to time. Thank you, sir.

Some of the stocks to the moon will be returning to Earth or at best orbit Earth. Don't be caught unaware amongst lingering euphoria. Significant earning decline will translate simply as price erosion.

Agbalowomeri:
This one is sweet o

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/46781_CHAMPION_BREW._PLC.-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2026.pdf

Why?

welzyj2:
Zenith will likely close 130 today

Even if it's going to 140, still best to see Q1 before buying anything. How many of the big banks have learned their lesson? Have we forgotten the past so soon? Impairments don't just happen..they were a series of bad judgments which without a strong regulatory agency would still have been baggages. I choose to wait till I see Q1above 7 and decide whether to load up or wait for a much lower price…maybe 90.

Panadee:
DING?

Ding time is 9.30 am

Where do you think UBA will find her strong support ( ref chart below) and why?
However, on our Common sense estimation, it still has value at 3.1x4 x4  = 49.6 ( based on Q1 2026) being that the present scenario has probably already been priced in.

Buying anywhere below the 20 % below that value would be great

That’s below 49.60 x 80% = 39.68

I will gladly load UBA at N36.00-39.68, averaging down if necessary. However, if Wema Bank's Q1 2026 is fantastic, it will help UBA as it will be difficult to price Wema Bank above UBA. Wema will rise and take UBA with it. Can Wema turn in an EPS of 3.1 for Q1 2026? Let’s wait and see. Wema’s 4th quarter of 2025 ( from FY UFS) suggests that it is possible should it maintain that same momentum, to double earnings.

Sunrisepebble:
The PE firm bought into Betaglass I think at N414. I’m picking at N450, less than 10% premium. They will definitely be looking to add more value. They are also investing in capacity expansion and looking at export. So I think the long term it’s a good one. The story is very similar to WAPCO’s imo. Transcorp I’ve answered in another reply. I’d rather use the capital elsewhere

FYI: https://businessday.ng/companies/article/exclusive-beta-glass-to-invest-e17-5m-in-nigerias-business-expansion-push/?amp

Thank you for your attention, sir. Appreciated.

Well, you can always average down if it falls lower. I sold my Betaglass @498.50 except for 1 unit I am holding to keep the registrar happy. I would like to see their Q1 results before I decide whether to re-enter or not.

Best wishes sir.

4willer:
Hello Fam,

I have often been issues with using the dividend page with the link docuhub3.nibss-plc.com.ng/edmms/self-service

Am I using the wrong link, or has it ceased to work?

Thank you.

Keep clicking submit repeatedly till it accepts. You can check my earlier post on this issue.

Sunrisepebble:
Portfolio update.
I’ve exited all my Transcorp.
Added Betaglass
Target prices for GT, MTN, Seplat, WAPCO and Zenith all exceeded, still think there’s upside in all

NFA/DYOR

@Sunrisepebble, kindly permit my curiosity. Why did you change your mind on Transcorp? I thought you were in for the long term. Please if I may bother you slightly more, why Betaglass; at the current price?

Care4:
ETF has gained attention lately. Just know it's more of pump and dump for now. See that charts.
And liquidity issues as well.

Yes, you are quite right. Liquidity-induced craziness (volatility) is the “game”. Requires patience, familiarity, and knowledge. No one that understands ETFs in the Nigerian market will touch Stanbic IBTC ETF 30, NewGold ETF, and quite a few others at their current prices.

The trick is to be guided by their NAV with respect to what the ETF tracks and also their historicals. Many get burnt not knowing this. Buy close to their NAV. Never buy an ETF without first checking its latest NAV. Prices will always be at their highest in January /February and rotate back towards their NAV. Also note the dates the funds are rebalanced (sometimes twice a year) by the fund managers. Very important.

emmanuelewumi:
It depends on the amount he needed.


Can he get N10 million and above using his credit card?

My limit is $7000 (Naira equivalent/Dollar). I guess some could give more but it would probably depend on the bank's assessment of one's creditworthiness.

Teenaira:
Which broker has a better rate and what is their commission like ?

Another option

Any Credit card offering less than 3% per month on outstanding balance after agreed monthly percentage settlement to avoid penalty.

Don't try this unless you are conversant with ETFs on NGX. You must familiarize yourself with the ETF’s NAV before you buy. Buy only if the price makes sense, close to NAV. Yes, if it makes Common Sense. It’s easier to run this on ETFs because of their volatility.

Happy Easter 🎁🎁📦🎁 to you and your family. Let His Light shine.

Remember to never sell all your shares, leave at least 1-10 units for the Registrars to keep you on their register for ease of payments. That way, you won't need to fill out a new mandate form.

KarlTom:
And there was no disclosure on the sale since 31 December 2025.

That's very bad signal (or PR)...

Insider trades without disclosure? Let’s see what NGX will make of these multiple infractions. Ngx had earlier issued warnings to some companies on similar infractions not long ago. Very bad indeed.

yMcy56:
They're pending NAHCO from moving till after they're done with GT 😊
NAHCO ought to resume on full bid..

Meanwhile, GTCO resumed @123.90....
But profit takers are at work....
They may still likely move GT to 150...

GTCO dragging ZENITH along....
ZEE @104 as at now......Up with N8

* NEWGOLD @202,000 per Ounce....

Each security represents approximately 1/100th of an ounce. I can't understand why anyone would pay N202,000 for 1/100th of an ounce of gold.

The following conversions are based on the mid-market exchange rates as of April 1, 2026. Please note that these figures represent the estimated Naira value for one share of the NewGold ETF on each respective exchange:…Google AI


South Africa (JSE): ₦59,736.21
Calculation: ZAR 725.70 × 82.315 ZAR/NGN.

Nigeria (NGX): ₦186,000.20
This is the direct local price; it is currently trading at a significant premium compared to other regional listings.

Kenya (NSE): ₦56,454.67
Calculation: 5,315.66 KES × 10.620 KES/NGN.

Botswana (BSE): ₦65,223.15
Calculation: 641.81 BWP × 101.624 BWP/NGN.

Mauritius (SEM): ₦59,087.46
Calculation: 2,000.00 MUR × 29.544 MUR/NGN.

awesomeJ:
Good evening sir.

1. Yes sir. N831m sales and N815m purchases (reinvestment for the purpose of tax 😁) for total N1.65bn trades

2. The transactions fees are set to a total of 2.3% round trip. Buy side is about 0.9175% statutorily, sell is 1.2175% for a total of 2.135%, this 2.135% is what I add to whatever my entry price is to get my BEP. I add another 0.165% to cover the cost of X-Alert as well as the little markup on the selling prices. (I added an asterisk with a corresponding footnote on that line in the cost break down) I spoke about how getting an exact percentage can be tough especially with X-Alert. So I use 2.3% for now. I might refine the calculation whenever I'm in the mood to code again, but for now 2.3% works just fine.

1. Spot are gains that I made from positions that I entered and exited within the reporting period. If it's a weekly report for instance, my spot gains are gains I made from positions I opened that week and exited that same week. It's my favorite

2. Realized gains are from positions I exited in the review period, but opened prior to that period

3. Unrealized gains (paper profit) are gains from positions I opened in the period but am yet to exit. They're my least favorite.


In Q4'25, I had negative realized gains, cos I had to exit some positions at a loss in November.


I'm glad you're paying attention to my small report.

I hope I was able to provide the answers you wanted.

Yes, Thank you. Simply brilliant. 👍

awesomeJ:
Guys, I have some preliminary Q1 numbers for my trading, they're pretty compared to last quarter.

N1.65bn with 2.16% net margins traded compared to N669m at 1.32

the quarter still does have 2 more days sha, but i just finished vibe coding this income statement feature so I'm happy to share.

Full quarter volume will be above N1.7b with earnings likely to top N37m

I paid N1.3m for just stamp duties alone

AwesomeJ, thanks for sharing. I commend your investment courage.
Would you most kindly please with respect to your shared statement, kindly clarify the following:

1. Is your referenced sales revenue the same as the sum of stocks that were “sales” made from the total transactions of 1.65 billion and the rest purchases?
2. Were the transaction fees the same in sales as in purchases?
3. Please explain the terms spot P & L, unrealized, and realized P&L

Can I assume that profits were recognized only on attaining on average, the quoted margins above transaction fees?

I would appreciate your further feedback. Thank you for your attention, sir.

Oftentimes, we approach doctors to carry out medical checks even when no obvious symptoms or signs exist. The doctor assesses, examines, investigates which may include though not limited to laboratory tests, scans, X-rays, invasives, or non-invasive probes for dis-ease, the absence of ease, we call disease.
Likewise, every company's financial statement /balance sheet must be checked thoroughly for health, growth/expansion, or dis-ease (disease), the absence of ease; scanned, x-rayed, for signs of poor financial health. Pa Emma and quite a few others, have often and succinctly referenced this in many previous posts, drawing from their years of experience through boom, gloom, and doom. These are skills we must all acquire, searching for signs of fundamental strength or hidden weaknesses. When the maths do not support the talk, caution must be exercised. Reevaluation can detect storms ahead we can either weather through or seek shelter till its passed.

By the way, the World Glaucoma Week (8th-14th March, 2026) [/b]has just ended. Ninety-four percent (94%) of the over 4 percent of the world’s population aged 40 years and above, who have glaucoma, do not know they have glaucoma. So, see an eye doctor to check your eyes and rule out this [b]dreadful cause of irreversible blindness. Happy trading.

Options in this season of “Regret to sell or hold” for dividend-paying stocks.

1. Hold to qualify for dividends then reappraise to hold further to Q1 or sell after qualifying for dividends. If you choose to sell, sell the much units to take profits off the table.

Note: Difficulties could be encountered in demand for the stock after markdown forcing one to abandon plans as the price continues to fall on offers far above bids. E.g a stock paying a dividend of 10% may drop to as much as 20% post ex-dividend trading on low demand making exit impossible at a good price.

[CP-Your estimate Buy back Price] x number of entire units held at qualification
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… = number of units to sell
CP

Buy back when the stock falls to the estimated reentry price.

And what if it doesn’t fall to that price? Just walk away or keep waiting till it does or plough funds to wherever else ( any other stock) that hits a good entry price determined by whatever strategy/valuation metrics.

Be reasonable with the target reentry/entry price. Use stock charting, point of strong support, or Fibonacci with historical analysis.

Please note that CP will be marked down after qualifying. Adjusted for the dividend and/or scrip issued. Prior research is crucial to determine the most reasonable re-entry price.

2. Selling a few days before ex dividend mark down. I ask myself. “ Is this stock more likely to lose 25% before it gains 25% weeks or months post ex dividend ?” If No I would not sell.
If yes I could consider selling a day or two before qualification. When demand is still high. Again I apply the above formula likewise and research where the strong supports lie, etc.

There is always the risk that you may never get back in below your exit price, thereby surrendering a good stock. But, these are not really losses just opportunities lost. Remember, you still walk away with a profit, selling only a portion of your holding.

emmanuelewumi:
I have Zenith, GTB, Stanbic IBTC and UBA.



Access Bank will definitely need to raise additional capital after the stress test

I don't think so. Access Bank has the best asset quality with an NPL Ratio of 2.76%, NPL Coverage Ratio of 100%, and a CAR of 20%. All the current loans are captured within the coverage ratio.

I would rather worry about ETI, UBA, Stanbic, Fidelity, and FCMB.

Sorry

https://docuhub3.nibss-plc.com.ng/edmms/self-service


Anyone getting a Bvn error code should just keep hitting submit till it accepts and takes you to the upload of documents page.

A few repeat clicks solve the problem.

Itzlinda:
I'll buy at 60 too

Best below 52.90


15.86-5.28=10.58
10.58 x5 =52.90

Below 52.90 seems good if it gets there.

eziokwunwoko:
@Aj8 : Please Sir, explain the calculation on VeritasKap

VeritasKap
Strengths
1. Has a new CEO/MD, a no-nonsense career chief who understands the sector
2. The 2025 statement is looking good with a lot more prudent management and an increase in the investment portfolio. The negative earnings have turned green
3. Earnings 2025 EPS is 0.93 but I consider it even more remarkable coming from a negative 0.57. In other words a move of 0.57 +0.93 =1.50. Compared well to that of Mutual Benefit Assurance
4. Q4 earnings stand alone is 0.42 profit at Q4 was 2,925,972,000 compared to the 2025 UF year of 6,459,407,000 a remarkable surge when compared
5. Common sense strategy is based on an average PE range of 4 and 5 and when the multiples are far outstretched, on the sector’s average PE multiple or the company's PE multiple whichever is lower. Earnings must however be organic or with a high probability of repeat occurrence
6. Veritaskap’s calculations were based on the Q4 earnings and the strength of the new management against the background of Insurance sector reforms.


You may wish to refer to some of my past posts for deeper insight.

Let's see what the Q1 2026 results would come up as: then we can recalculate and restrategize.

I own VeritasKap. But kindly do your research before you jump in.

Xidget:
@Aj8, Abeg,is there any common sense stocks that is still within buying range

VeritasKap

megawealth01:
And what if it goes below 20 naira?

The last paragraph….


Otherwise, Ignore this response if just sarcasm