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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:29am On Aug 01, 2025

yMcy56:
I sent you mail almost immediately yesterday sir.
Was wondering if it didn't get to you as well.
I sent another one now.
Pls check if you receive it.
Happy New Month sir!
Thanks for all you're doing for us.
More blessings IJN.

Replied.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 1:18am On Aug 01, 2025

aj8:
Noted. But you know its Berger that's driving the Paint industry higher… there has been rumours of bonuses for a few years now and their dividends ain't bad at all ie for Berger.

@yMcy56. Your mail did not come through.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 3:10pm On Jul 31, 2025

aj8:
Wema Bank on the path to becoming a Systemically Important Bank (SIB)
New Common Sense Target for 2025 revised from N14 to N20 (nudged N14 today). Dividend target N2.00. Needs to pay interim to further support the “ too big to fail” pursuit.

Wema needs to pay interim however small to further boost/cement this pursuit of becoming a SIB. Too early to compare with other banks till other results are turned in. Good H1 but shows it is sustaining its Q1 momentum. However still as forecast. If they pay interim 50k, the price should rally to N30. All driven by the tremendous positive banking disruption via ALAT.

Just my opinion, not an advice to buy.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 1:14pm On Jul 31, 2025

yMcy56:
Berger and CAP.
Carried out some DD on MEYERS and just wanted to see if it's in line with my expectations...

I'll send you PM pls
You can send it to my email.... first. 😊
Just login to your email and reply the mail.
Thanks. 🙏

Okay

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 1:05pm On Jul 31, 2025

megawealth01:

Same for all Grexk companies…from time.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:59pm On Jul 31, 2025

yMcy56:
@Aj8
Pls help me recheck MEYER common sense target.... Q2 is out.
Thanks 🙏
Let it be favourable o 😁

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/44636_MEYER_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2025.pdf

Noted. But you know its Berger that's driving the Paint industry higher… there has been rumours of bonuses for a few years now and their dividends ain't bad at all ie for Berger.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:15am On Jul 31, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
It doesn't seem to add up with the 35B outstanding shares

We have had this argument before. Issued vs allotted huh

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:07am On Jul 31, 2025

Be mindful. With a lot of earnings released, a lot have already been priced in. Look for gap in value for possibility of price appreciation. A lot will want to take profits after pushing up the price. Don’t be carried away.

12 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 1:01pm On Jul 30, 2025

Ginalex:
and I exited it at 117.2 to enter sugar at 54.5. make e fall more abeg. Make I reenter

You had it spot on.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:20am On Jul 30, 2025

ndept:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/44717_NIGERIAN_AVIATION_HANDLING_COMPANY_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2025.pdf

Good result. Right on target to meet expectations. EPS of 455k against 177k last year

Price should fall. Common Sense Target lower than the current price.

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:53am On Jul 30, 2025*

Nascon, its annualized.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:33am On Jul 30, 2025

Locotrader:
Today Royalex is our top stock to watch.
Among the penny stocks Q2 results released so far,Royalex stands at the top position.

Market must push Royalex to N2+ because of this result alone.Wait for it and also hold on for Q3 and see another level.Hold on till Q4 and see the best of Royalex in 2025/2026.

Which result please? Estimated FY of 0.36 , or am I missing something here? Please clarify. The EPS is annualized. Or have I missed something? huh

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:54am On Jul 30, 2025

Sunrisepebble:
Please explain these your numbers to us

@Sunrisepebble
What an honor. Just check out the NB EPS growth from the H1 ( 135%) and it would become clearer. It’s really about growth. For a company that turns from negative to positive just add to get the range. Only one proviso, the momentum must have to be sustained or surpassed for the mathematical assumption to hold.

You have my utmost respect and admiration. Thank you for all you do in adding to the growth of our portfolio.

23 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:41am On Jul 30, 2025

Cadbury Common Sense Target is 69.76-87.2. Should it maintain current momentum. Probably into Q1 0f 2026 for the upper range. FY 2025 should level out around EPS of 12+ though but with strong push into Q1 of 2026 if the economy continues to expand.

Still check out their financials/ earnings statement /due diligence.

4 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 5:22pm On Jul 29, 2025

Common Sense Target for NB is N74.08-89.04.

Using H1
(8.28+2.85) x 2 x4 =89.04

Using Q2
(1.42+3.21) x4 x 4 = 74.08

Range = 74.08-89.04

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:40am On Jul 29, 2025

jonnysessy:
That is why it is common sense entry point 🤣🤣🤣

Exit not entry. It should become clearer next quarter.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:34am On Jul 29, 2025

Common Sense Target for International breweries (365 days target) is N33.84 should it maintain the current momentum.

@street… this one is for you. 😇

5 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:21am On Jul 29, 2025

Common Sense Target for Custodian is N35.04. Range is N35.04-43.80. Good if it makes a pullback so as guarantee at least a 20% gain.

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:53am On Jul 29, 2025

aj8:
Common Sense Target for Mutual Benefits N2.16. Still 50% upside from current price. Best to buy below N1.50.

0.54 x 4 = N2.16

Range N2.16-2.70

Still do your due diligence.

Mutual Benefits is still on course based on the Q1. Likely to move a bit more rapidly to the lower range. OS is so huge.

1 Like 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:43am On Jul 28, 2025

Mankind2024:
👍
The audio version is no longer available on YouTube. Fortunately, i downloaded it.
Another version is:
Mark Douglas trading psychology: 25 important lessons for your trading journey.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le-xv3jmWTc?si=igrv8q2IsPU2Hyh9

A million thanks.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:33am On Jul 28, 2025

Mankind2024:
It's time for Locotrader to level up and become a Locoinvestor from Q3 2025 onwards.
I'm excited to share my top recommendations for Locodemy. Let me know if you'd like more information!

1.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sa6HRIzlW5k?si=3xIsiKZ6ahwPg07E

2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teNcGiKoM18?si=jzI15l0bSYdR_9-K

3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ue7iMBfwkr8?si=xS6tNILj-DWBQOCC

4.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wp7Lz1svVro?si=OHwlyep7SewtvtCm

5.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJbd65dcYmc?si=fjM8W1fthT56Tnmn

6.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lClUECUwqFE?si=gtHBls4y0nL_K-NB

7.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7ungtK4zwA?si=1cZrAblBx78coTWL

@Mankind2024

Thank you again for the above post.

Can I please have the title of No. 7. I listened to it and loved it but its no longer available on Youtube.

Thank you

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:37pm On Jul 26, 2025

emmaodet:
Well, i agree but the truth is they are burning too much cash and diluting too much for the expected revenue.
During my calculation, They were burning on average less than 1b naira negative free cash flow per year.
So, if they claimed to have burn 4b so far within this fiscal year, that amount is enough to run the farm for 4 years and not just a short period.
Last year was around 600m negative cashflow (total cost of running the farm)
In 2020 - 440m was used to run the farms and 2.2b to buy PPEs). total burnt 2.6b
In 2023 - 490m was used for OCF + 16.7m in PPE. Total burnt 510m
in 2024 - 286m used on OCF + 212m in PPE). Total 498m
Q3/25 - so far so good, in the past 9m of 2025 FY, they have spent 507m on daily running farm operations and another 212m in capital expenditure) Total is 719m.
So how come they are have been burning billions, billions and more billions to come running the company?
If you calculate the amount shareholders have invested so far in equity since 2022 plus director's loans converted so far, it is enough to run the farm till maturity.
Maybe i am wrong though

I am trying to apply some common sense here: huh

A lot of clues to what to expect? Not good am afraid! Even if better in days to come. But not good as of NOW..
1. Evidence of Increasing cost of running the concern....CEO’s remarks
2. Had not enough cash at hand even at the EGM ...probably still nothing being generated or grossly inadequate…CEO’s remark
Implied the mill is not running yet since low on cash. Or, the sell of ffb wasn't enough to cover immediate costs.
3. Probably Directors sold off part of their shares at the market to raise funds for the company…or they gave cash… that they gave cash is very unlikely.
4. If shares were sold off to raise cash for the company, those who sold might have sold to get back same units at the future price…so that it wont affect their initial holding
5. If the Directors raised cash as cash loan, then why the reference to stock price of 2.80?
6. Issue before SEC could either be were the stocks option traded…type of transaction or merely raised cash at that then current price or just gave the company cash to run the business as a loan? Not sure which of these or any of which is legal. However if they were executed as insider trading, that information of insider transact would or should have been made public. And even if so, the shares were not belonging to the company at that time unless they were transferred to the company to dispose off at the then current price as a loan and return the loaned units back in future .. Wouldn't make any logical sense, least common sense.
7. Bothered that no mention of the oil mill in or around the EGM even after it was widely circulated on social media… with or without board approval
8. Too much secrecy, too little information.

I certainly share the view that land mass can be put to good use in good hands especially in palm oil cultivation and subsequently value chain derivatives to enormous profits, rice, cassavava, soya etc. However, its one thing to have a vision, but another to bring it to birth. I share the vision but sadly I do not share the mode of operations.

If the scarcity of authentic information is deliberate to keep the price down from soaring beyond the reach of directors loading up okay I can understand but that isn't working because the price has soared significantly….mostly on recently released social media information on X.

Could the frog be trying to swallow the snake or its the snake swallowing the frogs?

The management has to provide information information information and more information. We are not buying into a secret society.

Just trying to make sense of it all.

9 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:37am On Jul 25, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
You are too gentle
We wan drag you

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:42pm On Jul 24, 2025

pluto09:
The attraction of his method for me was the inherent simplicity. It is getting a bit complex now 😊
Though I understand it is difficult to find bargain again unlike what we had last year.

There is nothing complex. It's just maths. Only when there is a turnaround do I recognize and accommodate the improvement. The important thing is that it's incredibly accurate. It's my simple way to identify value and book a front row seat on a stock. So far, I am not sure whether it's ever failed. I will audit it someday. Go through previous posts to understand it properly. All I can say is that it has made me money over the years. I just felt it was okay to share with others. But please do not just take my word for it. Do your due diligence always. Bargains are still there and I would gladly post them as they emerge. Aj8 Common Sense is not the only strategy but it's mine and I am proud of it by the grace of God. However please note that I still pay attention to calls my some very remarkable folks on this platform and I have often used their insight to buttress my convictions on some stocks. Ymcy, Pa Emma, Sunrisep, Megaintentional, karlTom, Street.., pluto9, Agba, current price, and many others too numerous to mention. I am immensely grateful to you all. Enjoy what you have while you can. We are as breath, once it's gone, it's gone. Happy trading.

23 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:50pm On Jul 24, 2025

pluto09:
Is it correct to say you are projecting an eps of N19.72 for the company by year end

No not year end, but in a year to a year and half. Its all about taking front row seats.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:02pm On Jul 24, 2025

Agbalowomeri:
How do you have common sense target for a negative EPS according to your formula?

Its called mathematics. If you can recall your x y vectors

-11, -10, -09, -08, -07, -06, -05, -04, -03, -02, -01, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6, +7, +8, +9, +10, +11

There is 9 difference between -11 and -2
Between -11.86 and -2 = 9.86 that's the degree of improvement at H1
H1 x2 = FY
9.86x 2= 19.72
Common Sense strategy = FY forcast x4 but range x5
=19.72 x 4 = 78.88 QED sir.

19.72 x 5 = 98.60

Range will therefore be
78.88 - 98.60

QED.

11 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:36am On Jul 24, 2025

EDUECO:

You're doing well

Expect it to drop a little first for the big guys to take position.

5 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:05am On Jul 24, 2025

Common Sense target for Dan Sugar is N78.88

10 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:00am On Jul 24, 2025

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:35pm On Jul 23, 2025

Streetinvestor2:
I hope you don't mean to say the present price of wapco is because of the chinko deal.I will say the present appreciation is based on the company new performance. The chinko deal is not yet binding on minority shareholders because it has not passed any agm or egm and approved by minority shareholders for thr own stake. The was seen in PZ case.
If the shareholders had approved it before any appreciation on the floor this is whr risk comes.The deal for minority shareholders has not been placed before them
Another example is IE insurance. The shareholders have approved the deal long ago and can be short changed in the future.
All we have on ground is a proposal and never a bidding agreement. The shareholders still holds the hammer

No. But the price of crayfish must include the price of the water its swimming in. 😀

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:47pm On Jul 23, 2025

Sunrisepebble:
I’m not talking about the takeover price. My opinion is the company will remain listed, I’m talking about the valuation of the company based on the H1 result
If they do come with that MTO price of N100 I honestly don’t think it will go down well with anyone at all, even National Assembly who they’re having issues with at the moment

The more reason it's risky. May end up not happening and price will find its level.

4 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:29am On Jul 23, 2025

TIP and Guiness Good positive action around BM. ⬆️⬆️⬆️✅✅✅
Berger slight drop around BM..probably on course

1 Like

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