₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
You better sell. Highly disappointed with their result

Papa Emma, some of us are terribly undiscerning of sarcasm. Please have mercy on us. I personally would like to know when you are being sarcastic. Some of us have such high regards for your wise counsel and believe me I have taken hold blindly of some of your statements only to learn later it was just you being sarcastic. Would it hurt so much sir?

SonofElElyonRet:
No be your consain.. I'm already up from N3.30 to N14/N15
I'm holding for at least another 5 years. Bookmark this page and let's revisit this matter then. God will preserve our lives far beyond then in Jesus' name AMEN

Amen. You may wish to consider taking off at least your initial investment of 3.30 per unit or better still take off some profit.

jckgroup1:
Chief, what's the common sense target for Univinsure?

I think your revised target for TIP is conservative though I understand the premise but Q1 result most likely will sort that out. It is better conservative than otherwise anyways.

Gracias!

For Universal, factor….

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/Universal_Insurance_Plc_Notice_of_Extraordinary_General_Meeting_.pdf

unite4real:
Did you consider the expected share dilution from the hybrid offer for TIP?

Common Sense Target for TIP = revised to approximately 16.00 considering OS of 2.0 bill
Common Sense Target for Veritaskap = 3.72- 4.65[/b]


Please do your research/ due diligence.


@unite4real

unite4real:
Did you consider the expected share dilution from the hybrid offer for TIP?

That’s 2bill OS right? Noted.

Custodian should do above 60.00 but buy below 40 . Estimate 6 months.

Common Sense Target for TIP = revised to approximately 16.00 considering OS of 2.0 bill
Common Sense Target for Veritaskap = 3.72- 4.65


Please do your research/ due diligence.


@unite4real

pluto09:
Do you actually believe they will make an eps of N1.25 in FY 2025 giving the fact that q3 eps was just N0.64k.
Being conservative on future earning by projecting the q3 eps to FY25 would have been better in my own opinion.

pluto09

What I tried to do was the following…i recognised the PAT at Q3 2025..6.6bill
I took the forecast of the company though for Q1 2026 and added to the above = 6.6+ 2.9 =9.5 bill...believeing that the bases for their forecast could already be present and active..
VFD OS = 7.6
EPS forecast = 9.5/7.6 =1.25 rounded off to 1.25
However if we were to work with the Q3 results and just assume that the company ‘s forecast for Q1 2026 could only be active in Q1.. Probably for some cyclical reasons…
We will then have 0.64 x 12 /9 = 0.85
Allowing therefore a PE x 0.85
= 12.40 x 0.85 = 10.54 price estimate

But then the market has to be right. Right? Currently above this figure... The market therefore sees some value above 0.85 Eps even with dividends factored in.

Even better still, should the VFD forecast run through all of 2026, we may be in for the 20s.

I DO NOT OWN VFD. HOWEVER, I COULD CONSIDER BUYING IF IT DROPS BELOW 10.

Bbbwings:
Hello sir. What is your common sense target for vfd.

My estimate for VFD is based on a FY 2025 EPS of approximately N1.25 based on forecast provided by the company even though it's for Q1 2026. I added it to their Q3 2025 since the forecast must have emanated from something.

PE of 12.40

Therefore 1.25 x 12.40 = 15.50

Why did I use the PE? I have already explained.

https://www.tradingview.com/markets/stocks-nigeria/market-movers-large-cap/

Easy source for PEs etc….

aj8:
It’s based on the weighted average OS. See Note 24. Depends on when the private placement came in. Probably October/November based on the ratio.

Same applies to Wema Bank fyi. Don't do the calculation on the total OS till the full year when the funds would have been fully weighted. Always check the notes to the EPS if the value seems strange.

Please for all those asking for Common Sense Targets. All my posts are made here on this platform. I do not operate nor intend to operate any other platform besides this.

Please kindly note that once a stock zooms past its Common Sense Target, you can henceforth gauge price based on its P/E multiple. Common Sense Target allows you to gain a front row seat. Thereafter decide the next step..continue to sit or stand and walk away to return or never to return. Wherever I see value, I will post. There will not be many but surely be profitable if they come. A stock however good or strong, if it falls to below the Common Sense Value, will definitely become a bargain as long as the growth is organic. However, to gauge further trajectory above its CommonSense price, it is best to apply its P/E.

Xidget:
What's common sense target on Vitafoam pls

Please apply Vitafoams PE ratio = 10.8

Q12026 =3.35
Estimated EPS at FY based on the above = 3.35 x 4 = 13.4
Estimate price based on the multiple = 10.8x 13.4 = 144.72
Based on the Q12026 for now.

However , any crash to below 3.35 x 4 x 5 =67 will always be a bargain.

Common Sense is simply based on an average of our collective emotional PEs…. below which every one is definitely happy to buy as long as the growth is organic.

Hope that was helpful.

pluto09:
PAT is 6.46b and OS is 13.86b
How did they arrive at an eps of N0.93k?

It’s based on the weighted average OS. See Note 24. Depends on when the the private placement came in. Probably October/November based on the ratio.

VeritasKapital Common Sense Target 3.72-4.65

STNWAUME:
@aj8 what is the fair value for Japaul?

Best to wait until some clarity around their core business. Mining Gold / Lithium beyond sand. Do get back if you discover significant progress on their gold prospecting and refinery . PE is understandably high 21.09.

yMcy56:
Oga AJ, this range depends on the NOW, it can be altered (up) anytime...😊
Whom the elders have blessed remain blessed 😁

Yes my sister. It can be altered at any time. If news is positive that can happen. If insiders know something they can drive it up or retain it where it is. Also note that some MM could create a false sense of wellness to trick so as to offload . Best to always go by the valuations on ground and projections based on available data. Happy New Year.

awesomeJ:
If earnings double, PE only halves if price stays constant, at which point I lose nothing by waiting to buy at that improved multiple.

If the price goes up with the earnings, the PE yet stays at unrealistic levels.

Important thing is that you got the drift. What if price falls first to say half the current and boom, earnings improves to double or quadruples? Gotten it? I rest my case .


Hi awesomeJ. Greetings from Aj8

Agbalowomeri:
Growth is a different proposition

You cannot consider a man without considering his growth… same applies to stocks my dear brother . Not to see growth where it lies is to create a stunted entity in one’s mind that won’t reflect full prospects of the individual or stock. As long as we see through eyes of research and due diligence, it’s okay. Then apply courage and patience but monitoring any factor that could spell otherwise.

nosa2:
I am willing to wager that over 90% of participants on the NGX do not calculate the PE ratio of what they buy or sell

You are right. But the market is not controlled by 90%. But almost 100 % of those that move the market do even if to push it back into the background.

aj8:
@Okikiola914

Take your profits off the table. If you bought P number of shares at N69.00 , and tomorrow’s price is 171.05 + y, you will need to sell off
P x {(171.05 +y)-69} / (171.05 +y) number of units and bank . Let the rest run and keep banking as you go along. The 2025 Q4 results will determine next line of action beyond that.

The formula above says, multiple your units (P) by the price tomorrow at point of sell ( ie 171.05 +y) after you minus the price you bought it ( ie 69) from the tomorrow price …the answer is in Naira. Divide that number by tomorrow’s price at point of sell and it will give you the number of your units you need to sell off to bank your profits. Let the rest run.

This number is an approximation as it accommodates charges.

@Okikiola914

New estimate below . Range 87.72-109.65

I hope you took off profits as you went along. Can buy back at any price below 90, if still interested in the stock.

Agbalowomeri:
Na the methods we dey critique
Now wey Chimex don join gang wey dey value stock at 100x EPS

Agba, can the market be wrong? Price is arrived at by the forces of demand and supply right, driven by what? Our job is to guess the market as best as we could, in direction and stations, and sometimes on time of arrival or departure in whatever direction up or down. That’s how money is made in the market. The smart sometimes get it right and many times the smart don’t but remain smart if the losses are less than the gains in the market for them to remain profitable. The various analysis help to unravel this mystery, TA, FA, etc. Trying to make sense of something that a lot of sometimes look chaotic, but actual not, but simply the reflections of human emotions at the market. What would you then say of Tantalizer PE? The PE simply says, how long the market is ready to wager a return on investment in years based on earnings . It’s silly to expect anyone to wait 100 years if not that the smart person buying believes it will improve quite a lot in the future. If PE is today 100 and earnings doubles, it will half, and what if it quadruples… ? As new data comes in the market will adjust . NCR will too but probably not below 21.93 x 4 or 5 = Range of 87.72-109.65 until new data or information emerge. Sell off will bring it down to an equilibrium.

MrSamsung:
This is a helpful formula. Please what does the '+y' stand for?

MrSamsung

The price of NCR at the market close on that day was 171.05. The factor y would be the price difference on the reference price of 171.05 which was the price it closed on the day he asked the question. (171.05 + y) wrt NCR is the new price.

To generalize, for other stocks, just replace this as SP= selling price on profits

Therefore

Number of units to sell to take off profits = Holding on the particular stock x (SP-CP)/SP
CP = Cost Price.

Below is an example to clarify further.

E.g
You bought 1mill units of a UBA at 30.00 and wish to take off profits at its a current price of say 45.00
Holding =1,000,000
CP=N30
SP=45
Gain =15

Number to sell to take off profits

=1,000,000 x 15/45
=15,000,000/45
=333,333 approximately


That’s you will need to sell off 333,333 from your 1 mill units and allow the rest to run for future gains.
Ignore the charges.

Please note, this is not the only method to take profits but it’s how I do it. In that way I don’t miss anything. Like, selling off completely to only regret a sudden future rally.

Upcoming Board Meetings (Recent Updates in Red

Okikiola914:
Please what will you advise? Sell or still hold?
Like me, I bought when it was #69 with intention of holding for a year.

@Okikiola914

Take your profits off the table. If you bought P number of shares at N69.00 , and tomorrow’s price is 171.05 + y, you will need to sell off
P x {(171.05 +y)-69} / (171.05 +y) number of units and bank . Let the rest run and keep banking as you go along. The 2025 Q4 results will determine next line of action beyond that.

The formula above says, multiple your units (P) by the price tomorrow at point of sell ( ie 171.05 +y) after you minus the price you bought it ( ie 69) from the tomorrow price …the answer is in Naira. Divide that number by tomorrow’s price at point of sell and it will give you the number of your units you need to sell off to bank your profits. Let the rest run.

This number is an approximation as it accommodates charges.

This minus minus thing is still not clear to many…yet all the minus minus made it , NB, PZ, Cadbury, Nestle, Dangote sugar, etc. The only one that has got me still scratching my head is IB.

Streetinvestor2:
You mean u did your common sense analysis then for this range. Was 24.57 thr EPS then

See for yourself….Streetinvestor 2

mikeapollo:
This NGX no balance at all!
NCR trading at N171+ even though it has negative equity (N4.5b). Yet the almighty ''gurus'' are quiet, not saying anything.
But if it were to be Oando, that is when they would remind us (very painfully ) that Oando has negative equity, so it is not supposed to rise.

God dey. Ojoro people

some call it juju.

24.57 +2.20 =26.77
26.77 x12/9=35.69
35.69 x 4 =142.77
35.69 x5 = 178.45
Range 142.77 to 178.45

Way back….from Q3

Upcoming Board Meetings

yMcy56:
ASO SAVINGS and LOANS
Now that ASO SAVINGS has gone, we are all advised to move on and stop sulking.....

*In second Samuel 12, David was praying and mourning for the son Uriah's wife had for him, expecting mercy on him, but immediately the son died, he cleaned up and ate.....
Meaning, no remedy again......

* We have more than 50 stocks on NGX to recoup the funds from....
For instance, if anyone had invested in JAIZ or even NCR since when suspension was placed on it, it would have recovered a larger sum of the fund invested on it, if not all.

* This shows the kind of regulations and regulators we have in this country, defiling court orders and telling court to shut up on certain matters.

* This is also a call to those that invested in CBN regulated stocks to be vigilant and do periodic reviews on their holdings...
*One of the reasons I'm not a fan of banking stocks!

When Skye Bank disappeared, we still thank God for life.

It is well with us all.

It's well. Eyes wide open on any stock with promising returns. Hopefully the funds will be available when the time comes.

Agbalowomeri:
Baba Dangsugar is only tracking the NASCON sentiment, nothing more. No fundamental can explain its current price. Even GEREGU at 1000 has some sense afterall

Geregu, yes some sense, agreed, but not common sense. And….. wasn't called out either. Do bear in mind, that in actuality, it's cash that is tracking whatever value/sentiments. The Buyers believe it's worth it at some point in the future ( remember the market is forward-looking) and so bought into it. Those selling believe they have been rightly priced and so sold. The equilibrium is called the price. However hard the tracking, if there is no equilibrium, there would be no transaction. Agreed? Let's match on to 89, but there may be a few profit taking along the way, giving the beautiful ups and downs in the charts.
I love your discourse nonetheless, they help me apply just the right amount of breaks and not be too carried away. Let's hope the economy holds to dear breath.

aj8:
Dangote Sugar Refinery :
Common Sense Target N71.2 - N89.00
Calculation based on Qtr 3 2025 earnings
OS 12,146,878,241.00
Earnings in Qrt N13.682 bill
EPS Qrt 1.13 from negative 3.32


Calculation:
(1.13+3.32) x4 x4 to range (1.13 +3.32) x4 x5
= 71.2 -89.00 Range

Estimate 6 months.


Current price N55.60
Upside 28%-60% within Range.


Caution: Do your research and due diligence.

DS, first target hit. Hold on till the second target of 89. We are well within our 6 months target. As long as a company’s statement of account is accurate and recognizes it's losses in her return to profit, the targets based on the calculations will hit if no significant negative economic down turn.

Agbalowomeri:
I still think this your method doesn't work when you try to use number line. It does not apply common sense. I can't fathom how an expected FY EPS of less than N2 would be projected to any price more than N20. That is a PE of 10. At 80 it will be a PE of 40. That cannot make sense to me.

I guess it's making some sense even if not a lot of sense.