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Aj8's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:23pm On Feb 22
Sunrisepebble:
I don’t have better use for the cash I’m sitting on. So will add to it, Zenith and Transcorp tomorow
For Transcorp, I would want to see an uptick in the volumes along with the price. PE is 8.65 so an EPS of N6.00 has been priced in. Note….Tomorrow is BM. You may wish to wait. Not unless privileged to insider information. Resistance @53.50 and Support @ 47.15. Insiders haven't shown interest for a while too.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:58pm On Feb 19
jckgroup1:
Greetings Common Sense Boss,

This Common sense Target for VeritasKap; is it for Q1 or H1 target? Kindly clarify. I know you do update with latest result.

Gracias.
@jckgroup1

Though insurance penny stock prices are a bit depressed but give it into H1 2026 weeks after Q1 release. Once the Q1 result validates the momentum seen at FY 2025, it should soar to the target. It's a good entry as it stands well below the above target, averaging down even if it drops. MBenefit is a good pointer to what could happen next with VeritasKap.

Buy now, watch volumes! Any day it spikes 10% dive deeper.

Do your due diligence as always.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 3:37pm On Feb 19
chimex38:
https://ngxgroup.com/herere-11-top-performing-etfs-driving-investor-returns

One may not know all the underlying companies they invest your money in and at what ratio or amount.
🏃🏃🏃🏃🏃🏃🏃 Just watch the NAV of the ETF. Never touch with even a long spoon anything 20% above that. Crazy things happen there. Buy only after they rebalance their portfolio and sell about February when prices peak. Never never buy at peaks you'd be sorry. The market is still very inefficient. Gains can be astronomical and losses brutal. I have done a couple.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 3:25pm On Feb 19
ojesymsym:
This requires a subscription with ngx right?
Yes. Just talk to your stockbroker. If your stockbroker is not linked, find one who is. First rule of business, Be in direct control.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:41pm On Feb 19
Valthegreat:
I believe if offers starts pushing out massively perhaps around Circa #5 some of the current bidders may become jittery of becoming bag holders including me. So the chase is not expected to be sustainable at higher highs.
Unless the company comes up with further positive clarification and forecasts around the N5 junction to drive it further. A few pictures would suffice to range it towards 10 but real maths is needed beyond that. It's all sentiments now, nothing concrete.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:16pm On Feb 19
ogoo4real:
Morgan Capital still showing 208m bids. Is that correcthuh

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:13pm On Feb 19
PuristForest:
Japaul will be like 3.75 - 3.4 and 4.75 (possible B top) targets.....but after that may still return to 3.3 region........Enjoy
Japaul may not tarry till 16-20, especially if the company can give further clarification. Just follow the volume for now. Over 200 million all bidding the max? I can't see it stopping soon. I was able to position at 2.51 when the volume showed multiple spikes and demand outweighed supply by miles. At that time the news wasn't out yet but just peaks in interest in the stock on the real-time platform.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:00pm On Feb 19
aj8:
On NGX. The Nigerian real-time trading platform. Your stockbroker would link you up.
Like so below. See the attachment.

You could have caught Mbenefit the new entrant today well before the full bid. Same for Japaul and Tantalizer a few days before.
MTN is warming up.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 1:59pm On Feb 19
ojesymsym:
What eTrader works best for this? Is Yahoo finance real time or may investing? Make I see weda I fit follow you try am today
On NGX. The Nigerian real-time trading platform. Your stockbroker would link you up.
Like so below. See the attachment.

You could have caught Mbenefit the new entrant today well before the full bid. Same for Japaul and Tantalizer a few days before.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:51am On Feb 18
The day's market on the NGX is characterized in the first 15 minutes of trade. What I do. I open my “Trades” on the eTrader platform and wait till 10.15 am, I sort the data according to volume highest to lowest. This would show stocks that are about to shoot up and those being dumped, I just pay attention to only the first page after sorting accordingto volume highest to lowest, I don't scroll down. On this first page, I take note of new entrant stocks, stocks that have been docile or consolidating for a while that..
1. have done 10% green but demand far more than supply….buying. I join the queue provided cash is available.
2. show 10% green with huge supply more than demand..dumped/ profit taking corrections. Especially if the price drops as the market progresses. I walk away or take profit if I wish to

News changes the course of trades. The information once known to the privileged few, the stock will show up as huge abnormally large multiple volume interests. The first 15 minutes help to detect that. Subsequently, I update “Trades” on the platform as sorted every 15 minutes and note new entrants to consider taking a position on.


It's interesting how often this works. Much later the news emerges…e.g Tantalizer and Japaul…NB (profit taking a day before results publication )

A strategy I thought I should share. Do not commit huge funds till you are okay with it.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:02am On Feb 18
deathwing:
What is a common sense target price for MTN, Custodian, GTB, and TIP by Dec 2026 (assuming all goes well)?
Let's wait for Q1/2026. The market generally/historically heads down till then with minor ticks up or down for dividends. Custodian may have something brewing for the MD to have purchased huge amounts at year-end end even though above price based on its PE multiple and Q1 2026 earnings forecast, will become clearer in 2026. Companies where Mds make huge purchases, do make well over 150 % over the average purchase price within a 365-day cycle (that's open to research). My price target for Custodian is 80. I am not even sure how it would get there but driven by the Common Sense that if the MD bought into it then it's good enough; at least better than other investment options open to him - 20% to 30% approximately / inflation figures.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:31am On Feb 17
Exercise caution from this point on…better safe than sorry.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:45pm On Feb 16
Agbalowomeri:
Obviously this is a "bull fallacy" na. You see what Currentprice called his own "enterprise value". As long as all prices are rising, all our tools are working. Make we make the money o jare

Don't be surprised to see DANGSUGAR @200. Would this logic still explain it?
That's why I like you. This logic is only based on probability of hitting an average PE of 4-5. Beyond that we can fall back to the company's PE multiple.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:19pm On Feb 16
aj8:
Dangote Sugar Refinery :
Common Sense Target N71.2 - N89.00
Calculation based on Qtr 3 2025 earnings
OS 12,146,878,241.00
Earnings in Qrt N13.682 bill
EPS Qrt 1.13 from negative 3.32


Calculation:
(1.13+3.32) x4 x4 to range (1.13 +3.32) x4 x5
= 71.2 -89.00 Range

Estimate 6 months.


Current price N55.60
Upside 28%-60% within Range.


Caution: Do your research and due diligence.
Agbalowomeri:
I still think this your method doesn't work when you try to use number line. It does not apply common sense. I can't fathom how an expected FY EPS of less than N2 would be projected to any price more than N20. That is a PE of 10. At 80 it will be a PE of 40. That cannot make sense to me.
Still doesn't make sense? That's okay.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:10pm On Feb 16
aj8:
Dangote Sugar Refinery :
Common Sense Target N71.2 - N89.00
Calculation based on Qtr 3 2025 earnings
OS 12,146,878,241.00
Earnings in Qrt N13.682 bill
EPS Qrt 1.13 from negative 3.32


Calculation:
(1.13+3.32) x4 x4 to range (1.13 +3.32) x4 x5
= 71.2 -89.00 Range


Estimate 6 months.


Current price N55.60
Upside 28%-60% within Range.


Caution: Do your research and due diligence.
Touched 88.00 today, well within the 6 months.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:38am On Feb 14
crownprince2017:
I seriously believed agba is such a wonderful being, he never showed even for once being offended, that speaks volume of who he is in real life. I respect you so much for that.
He is a definition of humility he never takes any insult seriously. instead, he jokes it out of the person insulting him.

I seriously believed agba is very invested in this market, he just enjoys the cruise here.

Agba the baba for the girls, where do you see the market from here and what effect do you think 2027 election brings to the market.
There is an Agba in every forum/platform. Thank God for them. Like the skilful hand, they mix everything to make it deliciously funny yet serious. 🫡👊👍
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:46pm On Feb 13
aj8:
Common Sense Target for NB is N74.08-89.04.

Using H1
(8.28+2.85) x 2 x4 =89.04

Using Q2
(1.42+3.21) x4 x 4 = 74.08

Range = 74.08-89.04
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/46016_NIGERIAN_BREWERIES_PLC.-EARNINGS_RELEASE_FULL_YEAR_2025_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_FEBRUARY_2026.pdf



Nigerian Breweries made significant price appreciation within the above estimate. Expect some drop in price on the FY
Common Sense value still good for (3.19 + 12.07) x 5 = 76.30

I don’t see it dropping below (3.19+12.07) x 4 = 61.04

Range adjusted to 61.04 -76.30

Will load more if it approaches 61 though I doubt it would drop to 61 based on the current momentum.

Likely to aim for interim dividend in 2026 which could lift it into 90s.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:46am On Feb 12
Wema bank market structure

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:27pm On Feb 11
chimex38:
He trades daily.
E.g 5m @3%= 150000
another 4m @ 5%=12000
Another 1m @ 9%= 90,000.
If you keep at this daily, you may also encounter losses or traps in some stocks on the index.
But net gain by month-end should far exceed the losses and brokerage fees if you are quite good at it like he does.

you could also leave your losses(traps) as paper loss until it breaks even or bull surfaces.(essentially making 100% gains).


Liquidity and right stocks picks is the issue in a bear market, but if you keep your quantities low and have knowledge of the stocks in question, you can reduce the rate you get trapped.(skill involved).

In a bull market as we have currently, liquidity isn't much an issue. One could even trade 10million luckily @8-10%=800k- 1million
(bullish and very liquid stocks).
Sounds like…..


“Goes fishing Monday to Friday. Like 10 lines all in the stream. Whatever tugs at the line he hauls in. Pulls in all the lines at the close of the day and goes home to prepare for the next day”


The lines could be e.g 10 million, 1 million, 100,000, or anything. Requires a lot of discipline to pull all the lines in at the end of the day. Not a strategy for just anyone. Luckily on NGX no loss ( line) can exceed 10%. Maybe awesomeJ would throw more light on his strategy. Main issue...how to pick the daily winners.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:42am On Feb 10
emmanuelewumi:
I said it is not an academic exercise if the aim is to build a long term sustainable wealth and value through business or investment
Of course, Pa Emma is right. With age, you will see the wisdom in these words. To ignore this is to gamble. Because some embrace such, the word gambler has been reserved for them. Sometimes you win big and if you lose, you lose big too. No fund manager would dare gamble. The maths must add up or else it's a no-deal. Always better safe than sorry.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:06pm On Feb 06
chimex38:
it's sarcasm..
See his previous post below on January 18 in response to NAHCOs result and as a company.
“An eighty year old lady may not look so great in high-heeled shoes”
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:52pm On Feb 06
emmanuelewumi:
You better sell. Highly disappointed with their result
Papa Emma, some of us are terribly undiscerning of sarcasm. Please have mercy on us. I personally would like to know when you are being sarcastic. Some of us have such high regards for your wise counsel and believe me I have taken hold blindly of some of your statements only to learn later it was just you being sarcastic. Would it hurt so much sir?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:59pm On Feb 03
SonofElElyonRet:
No be your consain.. I'm already up from N3.30 to N14/N15
I'm holding for at least another 5 years. Bookmark this page and let's revisit this matter then. God will preserve our lives far beyond then in Jesus' name AMEN
Amen. You may wish to consider taking off at least your initial investment of 3.30 per unit or better still take off some profit.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:26pm On Feb 03
jckgroup1:
Chief, what's the common sense target for Univinsure?

I think your revised target for TIP is conservative though I understand the premise but Q1 result most likely will sort that out. It is better conservative than otherwise anyways.

Gracias!
For Universal, factor….

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/Universal_Insurance_Plc_Notice_of_Extraordinary_General_Meeting_.pdf
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:53pm On Feb 01
unite4real:
Did you consider the expected share dilution from the hybrid offer for TIP?
Common Sense Target for TIP = revised to approximately 16.00 considering OS of 2.0 bill
Common Sense Target for Veritaskap = 3.72- 4.65[/b]


Please do your research/ due diligence.


@unite4real
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:46pm On Feb 01
unite4real:
Did you consider the expected share dilution from the hybrid offer for TIP?
That’s 2bill OS right? Noted.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 1:23pm On Feb 01
Custodian should do above 60.00 but buy below 40 . Estimate 6 months.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m):
Common Sense Target for TIP = revised to approximately 16.00 considering OS of 2.0 bill
Common Sense Target for Veritaskap = 3.72- 4.65



Please do your research/ due diligence.


@unite4real
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m):
pluto09:
Do you actually believe they will make an eps of N1.25 in FY 2025 giving the fact that q3 eps was just N0.64k.
Being conservative on future earning by projecting the q3 eps to FY25 would have been better in my own opinion.
pluto09

What I tried to do was the following…i recognised the PAT at Q3 2025..6.6bill
I took the forecast of the company though for Q1 2026 and added to the above = 6.6+ 2.9 =9.5 bill...believeing that the bases for their forecast could already be present and active..
VFD OS = 7.6
EPS forecast = 9.5/7.6 =1.25 rounded off to 1.25
However if we were to work with the Q3 results and just assume that the company ‘s forecast for Q1 2026 could only be active in Q1.. Probably for some cyclical reasons…
We will then have 0.64 x 12 /9 = 0.85
Allowing therefore a PE x 0.85
= 12.40 x 0.85 = 10.54 price estimate

But then the market has to be right. Right? Currently above this figure... The market therefore sees some value above 0.85 Eps even with dividends factored in.

Even better still, should the VFD forecast run through all of 2026, we may be in for the 20s.

I DO NOT OWN VFD. HOWEVER, I COULD CONSIDER BUYING IF IT DROPS BELOW 10.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:10am On Jan 30
Bbbwings:
Hello sir. What is your common sense target for vfd.
My estimate for VFD is based on a FY 2025 EPS of approximately N1.25 based on forecast provided by the company even though it's for Q1 2026. I added it to their Q3 2025 since the forecast must have emanated from something.

PE of 12.40

Therefore 1.25 x 12.40 = 15.50

Why did I use the PE? I have already explained.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:11am On Jan 30
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:45am On Jan 30
aj8:
It’s based on the weighted average OS. See Note 24. Depends on when the private placement came in. Probably October/November based on the ratio.
Same applies to Wema Bank fyi. Don't do the calculation on the total OS till the full year when the funds would have been fully weighted. Always check the notes to the EPS if the value seems strange.

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