Aj8's Posts
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Sunrisepebble:For Transcorp, I would want to see an uptick in the volumes along with the price. PE is 8.65 so an EPS of N6.00 has been priced in. Note….Tomorrow is BM. You may wish to wait. Not unless privileged to insider information. Resistance @53.50 and Support @ 47.15. Insiders haven't shown interest for a while too. |
jckgroup1:@jckgroup1 Though insurance penny stock prices are a bit depressed but give it into H1 2026 weeks after Q1 release. Once the Q1 result validates the momentum seen at FY 2025, it should soar to the target. It's a good entry as it stands well below the above target, averaging down even if it drops. MBenefit is a good pointer to what could happen next with VeritasKap. Buy now, watch volumes! Any day it spikes 10% dive deeper. Do your due diligence as always. |
chimex38:🏃🏃🏃🏃🏃🏃🏃 Just watch the NAV of the ETF. Never touch with even a long spoon anything 20% above that. Crazy things happen there. Buy only after they rebalance their portfolio and sell about February when prices peak. Never never buy at peaks you'd be sorry. The market is still very inefficient. Gains can be astronomical and losses brutal. I have done a couple. |
ojesymsym:Yes. Just talk to your stockbroker. If your stockbroker is not linked, find one who is. First rule of business, Be in direct control. |
Valthegreat:Unless the company comes up with further positive clarification and forecasts around the N5 junction to drive it further. A few pictures would suffice to range it towards 10 but real maths is needed beyond that. It's all sentiments now, nothing concrete. |
ogoo4real:
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PuristForest:Japaul may not tarry till 16-20, especially if the company can give further clarification. Just follow the volume for now. Over 200 million all bidding the max? I can't see it stopping soon. I was able to position at 2.51 when the volume showed multiple spikes and demand outweighed supply by miles. At that time the news wasn't out yet but just peaks in interest in the stock on the real-time platform. |
aj8:MTN is warming up. |
ojesymsym:On NGX. The Nigerian real-time trading platform. Your stockbroker would link you up. Like so below. See the attachment. You could have caught Mbenefit the new entrant today well before the full bid. Same for Japaul and Tantalizer a few days before.
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The day's market on the NGX is characterized in the first 15 minutes of trade. What I do. I open my “Trades” on the eTrader platform and wait till 10.15 am, I sort the data according to volume highest to lowest. This would show stocks that are about to shoot up and those being dumped, I just pay attention to only the first page after sorting accordingto volume highest to lowest, I don't scroll down. On this first page, I take note of new entrant stocks, stocks that have been docile or consolidating for a while that.. 1. have done 10% green but demand far more than supply….buying. I join the queue provided cash is available. 2. show 10% green with huge supply more than demand..dumped/ profit taking corrections. Especially if the price drops as the market progresses. I walk away or take profit if I wish to News changes the course of trades. The information once known to the privileged few, the stock will show up as huge abnormally large multiple volume interests. The first 15 minutes help to detect that. Subsequently, I update “Trades” on the platform as sorted every 15 minutes and note new entrants to consider taking a position on. It's interesting how often this works. Much later the news emerges…e.g Tantalizer and Japaul…NB (profit taking a day before results publication ) A strategy I thought I should share. Do not commit huge funds till you are okay with it. |
deathwing:Let's wait for Q1/2026. The market generally/historically heads down till then with minor ticks up or down for dividends. Custodian may have something brewing for the MD to have purchased huge amounts at year-end end even though above price based on its PE multiple and Q1 2026 earnings forecast, will become clearer in 2026. Companies where Mds make huge purchases, do make well over 150 % over the average purchase price within a 365-day cycle (that's open to research). My price target for Custodian is 80. I am not even sure how it would get there but driven by the Common Sense that if the MD bought into it then it's good enough; at least better than other investment options open to him - 20% to 30% approximately / inflation figures. |
Exercise caution from this point on…better safe than sorry.
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Agbalowomeri:That's why I like you. This logic is only based on probability of hitting an average PE of 4-5. Beyond that we can fall back to the company's PE multiple. |
aj8: Agbalowomeri:Still doesn't make sense? That's okay. |
aj8:Touched 88.00 today, well within the 6 months. |
crownprince2017:There is an Agba in every forum/platform. Thank God for them. Like the skilful hand, they mix everything to make it deliciously funny yet serious. 🫡👊👍 |
aj8:https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/46016_NIGERIAN_BREWERIES_PLC.-EARNINGS_RELEASE_FULL_YEAR_2025_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_FEBRUARY_2026.pdf Nigerian Breweries made significant price appreciation within the above estimate. Expect some drop in price on the FY Common Sense value still good for (3.19 + 12.07) x 5 = 76.30 I don’t see it dropping below (3.19+12.07) x 4 = 61.04 Range adjusted to 61.04 -76.30 Will load more if it approaches 61 though I doubt it would drop to 61 based on the current momentum. Likely to aim for interim dividend in 2026 which could lift it into 90s. |
Wema bank market structure
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chimex38:Sounds like….. “Goes fishing Monday to Friday. Like 10 lines all in the stream. Whatever tugs at the line he hauls in. Pulls in all the lines at the close of the day and goes home to prepare for the next day” The lines could be e.g 10 million, 1 million, 100,000, or anything. Requires a lot of discipline to pull all the lines in at the end of the day. Not a strategy for just anyone. Luckily on NGX no loss ( line) can exceed 10%. Maybe awesomeJ would throw more light on his strategy. Main issue...how to pick the daily winners. |
emmanuelewumi:Of course, Pa Emma is right. With age, you will see the wisdom in these words. To ignore this is to gamble. Because some embrace such, the word gambler has been reserved for them. Sometimes you win big and if you lose, you lose big too. No fund manager would dare gamble. The maths must add up or else it's a no-deal. Always better safe than sorry. |
chimex38:“An eighty year old lady may not look so great in high-heeled shoes” |
emmanuelewumi:Papa Emma, some of us are terribly undiscerning of sarcasm. Please have mercy on us. I personally would like to know when you are being sarcastic. Some of us have such high regards for your wise counsel and believe me I have taken hold blindly of some of your statements only to learn later it was just you being sarcastic. Would it hurt so much sir? |
SonofElElyonRet:Amen. You may wish to consider taking off at least your initial investment of 3.30 per unit or better still take off some profit. |
jckgroup1:For Universal, factor…. https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/Universal_Insurance_Plc_Notice_of_Extraordinary_General_Meeting_.pdf |
unite4real:Common Sense Target for TIP = revised to approximately 16.00 considering OS of 2.0 bill Common Sense Target for Veritaskap = 3.72- 4.65[/b] Please do your research/ due diligence. @unite4real |
unite4real:That’s 2bill OS right? Noted. |
Custodian should do above 60.00 but buy below 40 . Estimate 6 months. |
Common Sense Target for TIP = revised to approximately 16.00 considering OS of 2.0 bill Common Sense Target for Veritaskap = 3.72- 4.65 Please do your research/ due diligence. @unite4real |
pluto09:pluto09 What I tried to do was the following…i recognised the PAT at Q3 2025..6.6bill I took the forecast of the company though for Q1 2026 and added to the above = 6.6+ 2.9 =9.5 bill...believeing that the bases for their forecast could already be present and active.. VFD OS = 7.6 EPS forecast = 9.5/7.6 =1.25 rounded off to 1.25 However if we were to work with the Q3 results and just assume that the company ‘s forecast for Q1 2026 could only be active in Q1.. Probably for some cyclical reasons… We will then have 0.64 x 12 /9 = 0.85 Allowing therefore a PE x 0.85 = 12.40 x 0.85 = 10.54 price estimate But then the market has to be right. Right? Currently above this figure... The market therefore sees some value above 0.85 Eps even with dividends factored in. Even better still, should the VFD forecast run through all of 2026, we may be in for the 20s. I DO NOT OWN VFD. HOWEVER, I COULD CONSIDER BUYING IF IT DROPS BELOW 10. |
Bbbwings:My estimate for VFD is based on a FY 2025 EPS of approximately N1.25 based on forecast provided by the company even though it's for Q1 2026. I added it to their Q3 2025 since the forecast must have emanated from something. PE of 12.40 Therefore 1.25 x 12.40 = 15.50 Why did I use the PE? I have already explained. |
https://www.tradingview.com/markets/stocks-nigeria/market-movers-large-cap/ Easy source for PEs etc…. |
aj8:Same applies to Wema Bank fyi. Don't do the calculation on the total OS till the full year when the funds would have been fully weighted. Always check the notes to the EPS if the value seems strange. |
