₦airaland Forum

Please for all those asking for Common Sense Targets. All my posts are made here on this platform. I do not operate nor intend to operate any other platform besides this.

Please kindly note that once a stock zooms past its Common Sense Target, you can henceforth gauge price based on its P/E multiple. Common Sense Target allows you to gain a front row seat. Thereafter decide the next step..continue to sit or stand and walk away to return or never to return. Wherever I see value, I will post. There will not be many but surely be profitable if they come. A stock however good or strong, if it falls to below the Common Sense Value, will definitely become a bargain as long as the growth is organic. However, to gauge further trajectory above its CommonSense price, it is best to apply its P/E.

Xidget:
What's common sense target on Vitafoam pls

Please apply Vitafoams PE ratio = 10.8

Q12026 =3.35
Estimated EPS at FY based on the above = 3.35 x 4 = 13.4
Estimate price based on the multiple = 10.8x 13.4 = 144.72
Based on the Q12026 for now.

However , any crash to below 3.35 x 4 x 5 =67 will always be a bargain.

Common Sense is simply based on an average of our collective emotional PEs…. below which every one is definitely happy to buy as long as the growth is organic.

Hope that was helpful.

pluto09:
PAT is 6.46b and OS is 13.86b
How did they arrive at an eps of N0.93k?

It’s based on the weighted average OS. See Note 24. Depends on when the the private placement came in. Probably October/November based on the ratio.

VeritasKapital Common Sense Target 3.72-4.65

STNWAUME:
@aj8 what is the fair value for Japaul?

Best to wait until some clarity around their core business. Mining Gold / Lithium beyond sand. Do get back if you discover significant progress on their gold prospecting and refinery . PE is understandably high 21.09.

yMcy56:
Oga AJ, this range depends on the NOW, it can be altered (up) anytime...😊
Whom the elders have blessed remain blessed 😁

Yes my sister. It can be altered at any time. If news is positive that can happen. If insiders know something they can drive it up or retain it where it is. Also note that some MM could create a false sense of wellness to trick so as to offload . Best to always go by the valuations on ground and projections based on available data. Happy New Year.

awesomeJ:
If earnings double, PE only halves if price stays constant, at which point I lose nothing by waiting to buy at that improved multiple.

If the price goes up with the earnings, the PE yet stays at unrealistic levels.

Important thing is that you got the drift. What if price falls first to say half the current and boom, earnings improves to double or quadruples? Gotten it? I rest my case .


Hi awesomeJ. Greetings from Aj8

Agbalowomeri:
Growth is a different proposition

You cannot consider a man without considering his growth… same applies to stocks my dear brother . Not to see growth where it lies is to create a stunted entity in one’s mind that won’t reflect full prospects of the individual or stock. As long as we see through eyes of research and due diligence, it’s okay. Then apply courage and patience but monitoring any factor that could spell otherwise.

nosa2:
I am willing to wager that over 90% of participants on the NGX do not calculate the PE ratio of what they buy or sell

You are right. But the market is not controlled by 90%. But almost 100 % of those that move the market do even if to push it back into the background.

aj8:
@Okikiola914

Take your profits off the table. If you bought P number of shares at N69.00 , and tomorrow’s price is 171.05 + y, you will need to sell off
P x {(171.05 +y)-69} / (171.05 +y) number of units and bank . Let the rest run and keep banking as you go along. The 2025 Q4 results will determine next line of action beyond that.

The formula above says, multiple your units (P) by the price tomorrow at point of sell ( ie 171.05 +y) after you minus the price you bought it ( ie 69) from the tomorrow price …the answer is in Naira. Divide that number by tomorrow’s price at point of sell and it will give you the number of your units you need to sell off to bank your profits. Let the rest run.

This number is an approximation as it accommodates charges.

@Okikiola914

New estimate below . Range 87.72-109.65

I hope you took off profits as you went along. Can buy back at any price below 90, if still interested in the stock.

Agbalowomeri:
Na the methods we dey critique
Now wey Chimex don join gang wey dey value stock at 100x EPS

Agba, can the market be wrong? Price is arrived at by the forces of demand and supply right, driven by what? Our job is to guess the market as best as we could, in direction and stations, and sometimes on time of arrival or departure in whatever direction up or down. That’s how money is made in the market. The smart sometimes get it right and many times the smart don’t but remain smart if the losses are less than the gains in the market for them to remain profitable. The various analysis help to unravel this mystery, TA, FA, etc. Trying to make sense of something that a lot of sometimes look chaotic, but actual not, but simply the reflections of human emotions at the market. What would you then say of Tantalizer PE? The PE simply says, how long the market is ready to wager a return on investment in years based on earnings . It’s silly to expect anyone to wait 100 years if not that the smart person buying believes it will improve quite a lot in the future. If PE is today 100 and earnings doubles, it will half, and what if it quadruples… ? As new data comes in the market will adjust . NCR will too but probably not below 21.93 x 4 or 5 = Range of 87.72-109.65 until new data or information emerge. Sell off will bring it down to an equilibrium.

MrSamsung:
This is a helpful formula. Please what does the '+y' stand for?

MrSamsung

The price of NCR at the market close on that day was 171.05. The factor y would be the price difference on the reference price of 171.05 which was the price it closed on the day he asked the question. (171.05 + y) wrt NCR is the new price.

To generalize, for other stocks, just replace this as SP= selling price on profits

Therefore

Number of units to sell to take off profits = Holding on the particular stock x (SP-CP)/SP
CP = Cost Price.

Below is an example to clarify further.

E.g
You bought 1mill units of a UBA at 30.00 and wish to take off profits at its a current price of say 45.00
Holding =1,000,000
CP=N30
SP=45
Gain =15

Number to sell to take off profits

=1,000,000 x 15/45
=15,000,000/45
=333,333 approximately


That’s you will need to sell off 333,333 from your 1 mill units and allow the rest to run for future gains.
Ignore the charges.

Please note, this is not the only method to take profits but it’s how I do it. In that way I don’t miss anything. Like, selling off completely to only regret a sudden future rally.

Upcoming Board Meetings (Recent Updates in Red

Okikiola914:
Please what will you advise? Sell or still hold?
Like me, I bought when it was #69 with intention of holding for a year.

@Okikiola914

Take your profits off the table. If you bought P number of shares at N69.00 , and tomorrow’s price is 171.05 + y, you will need to sell off
P x {(171.05 +y)-69} / (171.05 +y) number of units and bank . Let the rest run and keep banking as you go along. The 2025 Q4 results will determine next line of action beyond that.

The formula above says, multiple your units (P) by the price tomorrow at point of sell ( ie 171.05 +y) after you minus the price you bought it ( ie 69) from the tomorrow price …the answer is in Naira. Divide that number by tomorrow’s price at point of sell and it will give you the number of your units you need to sell off to bank your profits. Let the rest run.

This number is an approximation as it accommodates charges.

This minus minus thing is still not clear to many…yet all the minus minus made it , NB, PZ, Cadbury, Nestle, Dangote sugar, etc. The only one that has got me still scratching my head is IB.

Streetinvestor2:
You mean u did your common sense analysis then for this range. Was 24.57 thr EPS then

See for yourself….Streetinvestor 2

mikeapollo:
This NGX no balance at all!
NCR trading at N171+ even though it has negative equity (N4.5b). Yet the almighty ''gurus'' are quiet, not saying anything.
But if it were to be Oando, that is when they would remind us (very painfully ) that Oando has negative equity, so it is not supposed to rise.

God dey. Ojoro people

some call it juju.

24.57 +2.20 =26.77
26.77 x12/9=35.69
35.69 x 4 =142.77
35.69 x5 = 178.45
Range 142.77 to 178.45

Way back….from Q3

Upcoming Board Meetings

yMcy56:
ASO SAVINGS and LOANS
Now that ASO SAVINGS has gone, we are all advised to move on and stop sulking.....

*In second Samuel 12, David was praying and mourning for the son Uriah's wife had for him, expecting mercy on him, but immediately the son died, he cleaned up and ate.....
Meaning, no remedy again......

* We have more than 50 stocks on NGX to recoup the funds from....
For instance, if anyone had invested in JAIZ or even NCR since when suspension was placed on it, it would have recovered a larger sum of the fund invested on it, if not all.

* This shows the kind of regulations and regulators we have in this country, defiling court orders and telling court to shut up on certain matters.

* This is also a call to those that invested in CBN regulated stocks to be vigilant and do periodic reviews on their holdings...
*One of the reasons I'm not a fan of banking stocks!

When Skye Bank disappeared, we still thank God for life.

It is well with us all.

It's well. Eyes wide open on any stock with promising returns. Hopefully the funds will be available when the time comes.

Agbalowomeri:
Baba Dangsugar is only tracking the NASCON sentiment, nothing more. No fundamental can explain its current price. Even GEREGU at 1000 has some sense afterall

Geregu, yes some sense, agreed, but not common sense. And….. wasn't called out either. Do bear in mind, that in actuality, it's cash that is tracking whatever value/sentiments. The Buyers believe it's worth it at some point in the future ( remember the market is forward-looking) and so bought into it. Those selling believe they have been rightly priced and so sold. The equilibrium is called the price. However hard the tracking, if there is no equilibrium, there would be no transaction. Agreed? Let's match on to 89, but there may be a few profit taking along the way, giving the beautiful ups and downs in the charts.
I love your discourse nonetheless, they help me apply just the right amount of breaks and not be too carried away. Let's hope the economy holds to dear breath.

aj8:
Dangote Sugar Refinery :
Common Sense Target N71.2 - N89.00
Calculation based on Qtr 3 2025 earnings
OS 12,146,878,241.00
Earnings in Qrt N13.682 bill
EPS Qrt 1.13 from negative 3.32


Calculation:
(1.13+3.32) x4 x4 to range (1.13 +3.32) x4 x5
= 71.2 -89.00 Range

Estimate 6 months.


Current price N55.60
Upside 28%-60% within Range.


Caution: Do your research and due diligence.

DS, first target hit. Hold on till the second target of 89. We are well within our 6 months target. As long as a company’s statement of account is accurate and recognizes it's losses in her return to profit, the targets based on the calculations will hit if no significant negative economic down turn.

Agbalowomeri:
I still think this your method doesn't work when you try to use number line. It does not apply common sense. I can't fathom how an expected FY EPS of less than N2 would be projected to any price more than N20. That is a PE of 10. At 80 it will be a PE of 40. That cannot make sense to me.

I guess it's making some sense even if not a lot of sense.

And this.….

Streetinvestor2:
My first call for this yr is Tantalizer. I called it late last Yr at #2 30 though it later got to #2.70
This is based on street analysis only for now till full yr result shows up.

My second call goes to .....

This is never a buy recommendation for anyone. I am only saying what i saw on the street and will be watching to see whr my call gets
I don't plan to put new fund on ngx till 2027 based on my political calculations for a new government

Front row seat. What's on the street? Kindly share. Any signs of the trawlers/fishing exports to US? If they pull this off, with their target of positioning within the top 50 on NGX, their rise would be phenomenal. The company ‘s forecast at their last NGX presentation is attached. I got in at 2.30/2.33 👬🍟. I am not certain if Tanterlizerca is within the group but if it is, may suggest even better days ahead. The possibility of franchising globally was equally touched at the presentation.

yMcy56:
It's well.
It's all part of investing.
Many dead ones came up and people recouped their funds.
This one may have political undertone.

** As for NDIC, they planned repaying depositors up to N2M...
** For investors, what's their fate?
Maybe NGX can come up and clear air on this.

@yMcy56

As Friedrich Nietzsche said,

'What doesn't break you makes you stronger.'

This quote resonates deeply in the context of the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) recent actions. Communications with far-reaching consequences should be shared with relevant agencies and authorities. Communications that have huge impending consequences should be copied to relevant agencies and authorities during metamorphosis. During not just after. For the sake and attention of investors.

Isn't it just fair and prudent that warnings and infractions by NGX-listed companies be copied to the SEC, NGX, and other agencies that could prompt or compel corrective action? Going forward, authorities should prioritize transparency and collaboration even if for mere ceremonial washing off of blood from their hands.

I can’t help but believe that if CBN had looped in SEC and NGX, the outcome might be different today. And if they were informed, well shame on them.

Can CBN reassess and adjust? I believe it's possible. A softer landing might be on the cards if they review their approach and learn from it.

May Nigeria Happen to you and the many others affected.


My respect as always.

jonnysessy:
I beg to disagree. Once you sold any stock, it is gone. If you are entering again it is different. Either you enter at a lower price or higher price. Meanwhile, the 16k earlier sold reduce his RI. His right ought to have been more were it not sold.

Agreed…

Please permit me to draw attention to a fact not often considered. Let me illustrate with some figures infused in a narrative to drive home a point however ending in a question. Imagine 2 individuals who within a space of a year invested the sum of N3 million (charges excluded) into a stock ABC. The first of the two K by name bought 1 million units a year before M and paid the relevant charges. M bought a year after from K at N12 also spending N3 million for fewer shares.
K walked away with about N12 million ( a little less charges factored in) and reinvested in another company XYZ. At what price of ABC, would M, achieve the same return on investment as K?

It’s buy and sell that make the market go round. The price journey of any company is tougher the higher you go. Sometimes is better not to have K become M. Walk away. There are many fish in the sea, many stocks that are likely to replicate that wonderful appreciation if bought at the right time and price. Just try to buy enough volume at the beginning and if you are right, price appreciation, bonus and dividends will smile on you.

This can be applied to any stock be it penny or mega blue chip even RIs.

Upcoming Board meetings.

ositadima1:
They’re not completely out yet. Look at their current nine-month cash flow, it’s negative, meaning they lost money overall, yet they still spent ₦24 billion on capital expenditure. If the remaining three months don’t turn things around, they’ll still end the year with losses. I think the stock will only start to take off when they begin generating real profits and adding value for shareholders.

In Q2, I valued them to move above ₦79 because they had around ₦50 billion in cash flow(all dried up), but I don’t think they’ll reach that level with the current weak results.

pluto09:
He is doing a good job though I also have my reservation with the way he uses the number line.
DS should do well next year considering the fact that the price of raw sugar is down in the international market, the support around $15 has just been broken. History has taught us that DS makes a lot of money when price of raw sugar is on a downward spiral.
The only negative I see with the company now is the finance costs,that needs to be brought down ASAP.

Can we agree on some areas?
1. Price is normally forward-looking
2. Progress ( in percentages) made in the last quarter 3 was better than in their 9 months Q3, which were actually flat in 9 months 2025 vs 9 months 2024 but 134% in qtr 3 (last quarter of 2025 vs same 2024)
3. If momentum in qtr 3 is maintained DS should see further improvement in earnings
4. The breakdown of quarter 3 is not detailed, all that was put across is that eps improved by 134% from negative 3.32 to positive 1.13. No sufficient details were given. The company I guess, just wanted to convey that “Hey folks, it’s not really as bad as you think”.
5. I think we also agree that the turnaround could show in Q1 2026 or at most Q2 2026
6. All our investment objective is to get a front row seat …entry at or close to the bottom is fine..

I am prepared to jump in now below 55.60 and keep loading with the hope that qtr 3 momentum would be sustained and the estimates would be hit within 6 months or at most 9 months. Q1 2026 to my mind is the quarter to watch … if good it would be an all-on-board train departing. However, all are based on the economy not walking into a doldrum of economic, political, or geopolitical woes. That's the major risk.

Streetinvestor2:
The eps can not be #2 if u calculate from whr they came from in q1 results based on his style. U didn't put in consideration of the negative part of the eps from q1 to the positive part of q4 as I understand in his common sense calculations.
It is easier when all quanter are positive. Na this part of maths I no dey like those days in sch when u have to move from negative side to positive side..lol

Exactly. The opportunity is hidden in the maths. Those who do not understand it help to create the opportunity for those who do by forcing down the price to enable those who understand it , take front row seats. An improvement of 134% from last year’s Qrt 3 is simply massive. The range will be hit if the momentum is sustained. Should be apparent in Q1 of 2026.

Agbalowomeri:
I still think this your method doesn't work when you try to use number line. It does not apply common sense. I can't fathom how an expected FY EPS of less than N2 would be projected to any price more than N20. That is a PE of 10. At 80 it will be a PE of 40. That cannot make sense to me.

That’s okay. Let’s wait it out and have this discussion in 6 months granted no unforeseen economic calamity. It’s just the opposite of where you often stand , so I can understand why it’s not aligning with you. It may make a lot more sense if you rather think in percentages. It’s really mathematical and sadly it’s not everyone’s friend. What is the percentage improvement from -3.32 to +1.13? Maybe then if you answer correctly it would start to make sense.
The beauty of this forum is that it allows for polygamy of thoughts.
I appreciate you and even more, your comments.

Dangote Sugar Refinery :
Common Sense Target N71.2 - N89.00
Calculation based on Qtr 3 2025 earnings
OS 12,146,878,241.00
Earnings in Qrt N13.682 bill
EPS Qrt 1.13 from negative 3.32


Calculation:
(1.13+3.32) x4 x4 to range (1.13 +3.32) x4 x5
= 71.2 -89.00 Range

Estimate 6 months.


Current price N55.60
Upside 28%-60% within Range.


Caution: Do your research and due diligence.

Ginalex:
Zenith trading at 59.95, 60 naira levels. Make I still wait abi make I jump in

There is a support S1 on the daily chart around 57.90 and S2 at around 50.65. Will it get there? Probably.

Toluway:
Mikeapollo, be far na, how can you say that an investor with 200m portfolio is a struggling investor?
Even with my about 150m, which was only possible because I sold a piece of landed property, I consider myself rich. In fact, I'm a multi-millionaire.
If you feel that you're a struggling investor with 200m, when then are you going to enjoy your life? With my present portfolio, even the dividends alone is enough for me to live like a king.
I give the glory to God Almighty.

Depends on what the 200m is on…e.g Is it on top of a befitting self-ownership accommodation, or rented accommodation, significant school fees at all levels or nil dependents except aging parents, better life augmented by solar inverters and regular water supply from an efficient borehole, or just annual expenses for vacation abroad or maybe enough to dine in luxurious cuisines at home or abroad or fly business class, or on numerous philanthropic ventures. Money must meet needs and improve the standard of living for it not to seem more of vanity.


“ Money you do not spend is not yours, life is for the living”

…Femi Otedola

To which I just want to add

………………by the grace of God.