₦airaland Forum

chimex38:
EPS of Q2 alone na kobo kobo. Where dem wan get Money buy World Bank suppose be the main Queshion we dey talk of interim.
Na Q3 go give hope. If dem go reason pay.

Even Almighty Zenith pay from retained earnings.. That should have been the red flag for the banking sector.

Even with all this, there is a new kid on the block…Wema Bank. Their growth has been organic, driven by innovation, digital banking ALAT and capturing of the younger generation. Their expansion into a National bank could also add to the bank’s future prospects. If their Q3 remains positive, they can surpass N28.50.

So how much more can water be diluted?

Aj8

emmaodet:
Can you explain more about the debt calculation?

@emmaodet. You would notice from my previous posts, that I apply a 75% penalty on the calculations whenever the sentiments around the stock are below par despite their satisfactory eps for whatever reasons e.g poor dividend payout history, huge debts, etc to mention but two. This was actually the case for UBA before few years back, and recently Access Bank and quite a few others. These factors do affect the price dynamics via demand and supply. I must confess however sometimes sentiments hold despite these factors for some stocks as investors sometimes see potential beyond current sufferings which they are willing to endure for a greater good. The rule of thumb, is to apply the penalty, which really is to say, to be a bit more cautious in your expectations for those that we are likely to tag “ those that get as it be” for some reasons. You may wish to comb through some of my old posts for further insight. May I also add, that this strategy ( Common Sense ) overall, was a product from the ashes of the losses I incurred during and after the crash of the early 2000s, back in our stockmarketnigeria 1.0 days. I think so far it’s done pretty well but sometimes you can wait tire. But great alongside the picks of some of the gurus here and those with tremendous heart to share In-si-der information.

Like we all say. Apply your due diligence and research too. Happy trading sir.

PZ Common Sense Target is N53.40 . Penalty of 75% on N71.20 applied because of debts etc.

yMcy56:
They're punishing ACCESS because of their stinginess and buy-buy spree....
I expect ACCESS to surprise investors.

Meanwhile, ACCESS requesting for time extension to publish results.....
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/ACCESS_HOLDINGS_EXTENSION_OF_TIME_TO_PUBLISH_RESULTS.pdf

Probably want their Q3 released alongside H1 to mitigate a poor outcome and price drop. Good strategy if their Q3 is super.

Locotrader:
Royalex is the oldest insurance company in Nigeria.They are trusted for their services and one of the insurance companies to stand strong in the industry.

With just a total of 8B outstanding shares and free floats reduced because of this recent acquisition of Royalex shares,expect 200-500% rise in share price before capitalization deadline.

Market will greet Royalex today for this news

@Locotrader, they will not rise alone, just like in salary increase, there will be salary adjustments in all cadres, you cannot be priced more than your seniors. It's actually a vote of confidence for the insurance sector. So, I expect those around them to adjust too. Let's see what the market thinks. All said, kudos to your call. You have more than once proved that you are in and around the market makers. What I call Insider farsightedness. Respect!

pluto09:
Any common sense pick at current price?

@pluto09.
Well-structured insurance companies will run more like quasi-banks. Their investment portfolio earnings should mirror yields in the bonds/treasury/mutual funds/CP etc. The extra funds from recapitalization if properly deployed should see those with strong interests in investments doing great even if core insurance is not so great in the immediacy until public perception or compliance is beaten into shape by strict legislation aided by stiff penalties for defaulters. Even though Mutual benefits has reached our lower target of N4.65, the current price of 3.43 is still good for at least a 50% upside to N5+ once their Q3 shows sustained momentum. Better still if you dive in at sub 3.15.

That is not to suggest that value doesn’t still exist elsewhere if considering dividend-paying stocks …

The bears are your friend. They offer front row seats to latecomers. Fortunately, you can hear them howling from every overbought ASI. Market makers don’t buy at the top. Once the top is hit they will by hook or crook disguised as “news”, swing it down to a comfortable buy zone and reposition for the big earnings on the last lap to year-end. Same pattern in most markets. Tag along if you have the cash to join in. The gain will be huge. Just make sure you buy into value. Happy trading.

Mpeace:
It the same result they posted last week they reposted.

On Ellah

The first result was t signed!!!!! Or dated…

And even when signed , wasn’t by the CFO….




Can anyone please clarify this….

Shouldn’t Ngx vet these documents?

Or am I missing something?

crownprince2017:
Quick one, Aj8 pls what is common sense strategy view on wema bank; sell, buy or hold.

Thanks.

@crownprince2017
Wema’s earnings are mostly organic so suitable for the strategy but sentiments around dividends ain't so great so I applied a 75% penalty.

Range is therefore 24.504 -32.672
The lower of the range is with the 75% applied and the upper is without.
So it’s a HOLD for me until next quarter when we can reassess based on their running EPS.

Below is the breakdown

H1 annualized EPS = 8.168
Common Sense Target = 8.168 x 4 = 32.672
75% of 32.672 = 24.504

Range = 24.504 - 32.672

Please also note that the last 3 months' EPS annualized is also showing improvement

So a N28.956 ( 75% applied) could still be expected if Q3 shows sustained momentum.

The company needs to match all this with an increase in dividends, north of N2.00 especially if full-year EPS ends up above N10.00, which I believe they would beat.


Just my opinion. Please still do your research.

ojeysky:
Attached is the result please where did you get the annualized info? Also can you try not to be insulting, this thread is not just to talk, and declare but to validate, educate and learn

My apologies if the phrase felt insulting. It was far from my intention sir. EPS is calculated from Earnings Divided by OS
OS = 39,605,421,535.00
Profit from your attachment = 41,191,937,000
Earnings / OS = 41,191,937,000 / 39,605,421,535.00

= 1.04 for 3 months
Annualized = 3months x 4 = 1.04 x4 = 4.17 approximately sir.

I pray and sincerely hope you have been educated.

Your apology is accepted even if you do not give one.

My apologies for having made you feel insulted. Again, it wasn’t my intention sir.

EDUECO:
Is H1 not half year?

And Full Year is the annualized one?

Yes H1 is Half year Result but the EPS therein reflected is the Estimated FY ( annualized). Still expresses the performance of the company at H1 but not entirely for a 6 months period but for a year estimate…. Annualized.

Knowledge drives wisdom.

EDUECO:
EPS of around 3+ Naira for half year and someone rebuked me for calling FCMB as a blue chip company. The 3+ Naira is about 25 percent of the current stock price.

Someone should tell me if the half year EPS of Nestle, Okomu,Presco or even GEREGU is up to 25 percent of their current stock price?

Many investors relegate the earning factor of any company when buying stocks. The future success of any company depends on its good or excellent earnings potential and not on its poor or fair earning potential.

The intelligent investor must take cognizant of the intrinsic value/margin of safety when buying a company's stocks.

A company that has consistently been paying good dividends is a company that possesses intrinsic value;and such a company has margin of safety.

It’s not half year sir. It’s annualized. Please check it again

yMcy56:
Oga AJ8, your inbox is full, mails unable to deliver.
Kindly increase the storage MB or tidy it up by deleting some unwanted mails.
Thanks

Noted. Will do so. Thank you.

zendi:
Or, is Japaul in possession of a vast, geologically confirmed gold deposit anywhere, right now, waiting for the comencement of mining?

Yes.

mikeapollo:
It does not make any sense at all for CFD to declare a 5:1 bonus and thereafter come back to the market in less than 2 years to raise fresh funds.
It seems the directors are either selfish or visionless.

It is in many things that don’t seem to make sense that we find sense. Maybe…..Insurance forward thinking or whatever 🤔. There are so diverse.

emmanuelewumi:
As an investor the older you are the richer you should be due to compounding.

N100 million at an average return of 15% will grow to over N800 million in 15 years due to compounding .

The N100 million will grow to over N1.5 billion in 15 years if compounded at 20%

May God grant us many fruitful years to compound

Locotrader:
Aj8 alias common sense.
It is never time to go on guest mode oooo.
I just say make I greet you sir.
Just to remind you about Royalex common sense which says it can't go beyond N2.

I go greet you again next week Friday by this time.

Thank you sir

Well done. I still won't touch it even if it's N100. You have my best wishes all the same. Remember to lock in your profits.

A gentleman bought a stock X at N3.00 and sold at N13.00 making a hit of 10/3 x 100 % gain = 300%. The stock later dropped to N6.00 but appreciated again over time to N13.00.

The guy he sold the stock to at N13.00 initially, will have to see the stock appreciate to N42.00 to also make 300%

39/13 x 100 = 300%

If the gentleman decides to buy back the same stock, now at N13.00 after it earlier dropped to N6.00 after selling off at 13.00 on a second missionary journey, the gentleman will become the second person.

For me, I would rather move on to another stock with a 100-300% potential. Well, that’s me.

It takes a level of discipline to turn away from FOMO on the same stock. Let others breathe too. Let them too take their gain. Walk! Trading discipline will generate profit over time.

There is always the scenario that X will hit the N42 target fast and beyond, but probably not so fast. Hold ab initio if you can ride the stock from N3 to N42 or beyond. But once you decide to sell, think again on that buy back at same or higher price not unless its a strong stock and can act as a store of value, let go of it till its the only live fish in the pond.

Xidget:
@Aj8, Pls what is your common sense target for VERITASKAP

0.52 x 4
0.52 x 5

Range 2.08 -2.60

OS is 13.866 billion

0.52 is Annualized

aj8:
Who will insure the future 1 trillion economy?

The insurance company will rise to the task once restructuring/regulations/ethics and controls become right and the overall economy starts to make sense.

The industry is still not big enough. Can a baby look after an adult?

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by feelamong(m):

Exclusive: Insurance Reform Bill gets Presidential approval, industry to recapitalize — Daily Economy News https://dailyeconomy.ng/exclusive-insurance-reform-bill-gets-presidential-approval-industry-to-recapitalize/

Heading in the right direction.

Locotrader:
Offend me?
No nah.
I should be the one to ask if I offended you by my questions.
Sometimes people don't understand how I pick a stock.Its not always by financials or sentiments.Past history of Royalex shows it's greatly undervalued and investors are positioning because of the recent turnaround which is also impacting on the share price with heavy volumes on the daily.
You may not see it now but Q3 and 4 results will make you to do some adjustments in your analysis.

I will be happy to do that. Thank you.

Locotrader:
You only rely on common sense which is not accurate.
Your common sense does not tell you there is no smoke without fire.
You don't want to use common sense to find out what is driving the volume.
If Loco is not the one driving the volume,what will you have to say?
This your common sense will deny you many opportunities in this market.
Your common sense can only win few and loose many.
I will be here to quote you when Royalex trade beyond N3 or N3.50 sometime this year.

I don't doubt you Loco. Just that I don't trade it. The emphasis is on “I’. I am fine with the few wins. I am not here to gamble. I don't doubt it soaring even to 100. But I won't trade it. The beauty of this forum is the opportunity to showcase our various strategies and thoughts. We are not competing but rather complementing one another. At least that's my view. I apologize if my view offended you. It wasn't my intention.

Streetinvestor2:
I wish the people in it safe journey.The q2 results no give me watin I like..I they look results this days not sentiment or emotion. The two results this yr no give me watin I want and many other insurance stocks.
As they reach my target. I sell without looking back.
Fundamentally sound stocks need that money now before full yt

Ref..the bolded: I share this view for now sir. However, the future for the insurance industry must be fixed to support a trillion Naira economy. Until that starts happening, it wouldn't make sense to hold tight.

Locotrader:
It looks like I am an insider in this case.
Bros you will regret selling Aiico.
Aiico is doing 200-300%
Insurance stocks are going to be a talk of the town.
The bull descending on them is hurricane one.
Aja8 alias common sense did not give us the full information.He only worked on MB as if it's the best insurance stock to do 5.60 in his analysis not knowing others will vex and demand for their positions.

Watch out.You will give me another respect for revealing this

@Locotrader, I hope you realize that the EPS for Royalex is Annualized. I have equally assumed that the error in the FS ( not reflecting the extra000s is just an error.

The numbers don't look good beyond N2.00

OS = 8,266,698,940.00

PAT= 1,514,789(000) …mind you the extra zeros were not added but assumed its an error

Eps H1 = 0.37 (annualized)

Common Sense would therefore be 0.37 x 4 =N1.48

Just my opinion. Not really sure whats driving the volumes.

I could be wrong or missing something.

DeRuggedProff:
Here is the prompt:

Assume the role of a world-class financial analyst and elite investment strategist trained in forensic accounting, corporate intelligence, and deep value analytics. Your mission is to dissect the attached financial report with surgical precision—no detail is too small, no red flag too subtle. This is not just analysis. This is financial reconnaissance. Proceed accordingly.
Perform a deep-dive into each of the following areas with military-level thoroughness:

1. Income Statement (Tactical Revenue Analysis)



Deconstruct revenue growth by volume vs. price changes.

Segment revenue sources and analyze concentration risks.

Evaluate gross, operating, and net margins across time.

Analyze cost structure (fixed vs. variable, inflationary pressures).

Identify EBITDA inflection points and scalability potential.

Isolate one-off items, FX gains/losses, and assess real vs. cosmetic profitability.

2. Balance Sheet (Asset Armor Assessment)



Conduct a quality audit of assets: check for impairment risks, valuation concerns, non-core/non-productive items.

Scrutinize debt profile: maturity schedule, covenants, interest rates, FX exposure.

Analyze changes in retained earnings and equity issuance/dilution effects.

Dissect working capital trends, inventory buildup, and receivables behavior for stress points.

3. Cash Flow Statement (True Liquidity Intelligence)



Isolate core operational cash flows from working capital distortions.

Evaluate CapEx intensity vs. maintenance CapEx.

Analyze financing cash flows for equity repurchases, dividends, and debt service.

Reconcile cash profits (OCF) vs. accounting profits (PAT) – assess earnings quality.

Identify timing mismatches or cash burn red flags.

4. Profitability Ratios (Return Combat Readiness)



Calculate and trend ROE, ROA, and ROIIC (Return on Incremental Invested Capital).

Disaggregate ROE via DuPont Analysis.

Evaluate margins vs. industry thresholds and operational leverage.

5. Liquidity Ratios (Short-Term Survival Scan)



Current, Quick, and Cash ratios – test the firm’s resilience under pressure.

Simulate a short-term cash crunch: who gets paid, who doesn’t?

Benchmark liquidity buffer vs. seasonal cash needs or debt maturities.

6. Solvency Ratios (Long-Term Risk Surveillance)



Debt/Equity, Interest Coverage, and Net Debt/EBITDA.

Assess whether leverage is productive or excessive.

Model financial distress thresholds under stress-test scenarios.

7. Efficiency Ratios (Operational Precision Audit)



Inventory Turnover, Receivable & Payable Days, Asset Turnover.

Highlight cash conversion cycle dynamics and margin leakage risks.

Identify working capital misalignments or supplier/creditor distress.

8. Valuation (Multifaceted Target Lock)
Perform a three-pronged valuation analysis:



Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Show all inputs—WACC, terminal growth, FCF forecasts.

PE Multiple: Benchmark against industry and historical self-multiples.

Price-to-Book: Adjust for asset impairments or over/undervalued intangibles.
Then triangulate a fair value range using all three. Declare intrinsic value, market gap (premium/discount), and margin of safety.

9. Historical vs. Present Comparison (Time-Series Intel Mapping)



Benchmark 3–5 year trends in revenue, profit, cash flow, equity, and margin performance.

Identify inflection points, business model pivots, or secular shifts.

Map progression against macroeconomic cycles and regulatory changes.

10. Peer & Industry Benchmarking (Battlefield Positioning)



Directly compare KPIs (Margins, ROE, P/E, Revenue Growth, Debt Ratios) to 3–5 top competitors.

Use industry quartile performance to rank the company’s relative standing.

Highlight any strategic advantages, cost asymmetries, or pricing power differences.

11. Notes to the Accounts (Codebreaker Review)



Unearth hidden commitments, restatements, off-balance-sheet arrangements.

Flag inconsistencies between narrative and numerical data.

Watch for aggressive revenue recognition, capitalization of costs, or deferred tax assets as profit inflators.

12. Management Commentary (Command Intent Evaluation)



Decode forward guidance: substance vs. posturing.

Assess leadership tone—confidence, defensiveness, or evasion.

Cross-check with past promises vs. actual execution.

Identify any strategic contradictions or telltale warnings.

13. Red Flags & Manipulation Checks (Financial Forensics)



Apply Beneish M-Score or Altman Z-Score logic where possible.

Look for creative accounting: asset revaluations, channel stuffing, sudden inventory swings.

Identify any audit qualifications, governance red flags, or recurring restatements.

Final Tactical Investment Recommendation
Deliver a clear, unemotional call: Buy / Sell / Hold.
Justify using a synthesis of valuation gaps, business quality, macro exposure, risk-reward asymmetry, and competitive positioning.

Forward-Looking Investor Conclusion

Strategic Position: Is this business defensible long-term?

Catalysts/Triggers: What events can drive revaluation or collapse?

Fit for Capital Appreciation Portfolio: Would you allocate 5%, 10%, or 20% of long-term capital here?

I doff my hat…waoh!!! You have my respect. Brilliant!

What do you think? Compare

What do you think?

What do you think? Compare.

Common Sense Target for Mutual Benefits revised upwards to N4.48-N5.60


Please do your due diligence

Vectoryoko:
Would it be weird if I say that I am just getting to know about stock trading? Someone should please put me in the game, abeg. I need tutorial on where to start

It's not a game. Start from a change of mindset. You are buying into the ownership of companies to share in their profits or gains if you pick rightly ( identify value) through research and learning, or losses if you don't; except by His Grace.

Invest in knowledge while using small amounts to master the ropes. Read at least ALL the previous posts of this year to understand how things flow. Pay attention to Pa Emma, he is not Pa for nothing, Agba…., yMcy, Megawealth...never get tired of his use of intentional, Sunrisepepple.. the ace of insider info, Gina/chimex...they know how to apply caution, KarlTom…our accurate time keeper with analysis as sharp as a razor, and so many others. Never buy at the top, buy when the product is cheap or not expensive. EPS/RSI will help you figure that out…. It's not called a market for nothing. Buy when the products( stocks) are on sale…just as you would on Oyigbo, Ogbete, Onitsha, Shoprite, Liverpool Street, Oxford Street, Macy's, etc.
Happy investing.