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Aj8's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:57pm On Nov 05, 2025
essentialone:
Are you presuming that the Fair Value or Target Price of each stock is x10 of its FY Dividend? Read what you wrote again.
No. More like the bottom.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:27pm On Nov 05, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
GTCo struggled to break below 90

Now Zenith is struggling to break below 60. Once broken na 50 straight

Everything na step lather. Na the way we climbed up we go climb down
GTCO, should anchor at or about N70.65 if daily closes below N84.65 in anticipation of an overall N7 dividend. Remember, supports and resistance are framed by market sentiments. They are not merely arbitrary lines. However, any inclination towards a lower dividend will drag prices further down, and higher if above N7.00. Zenith should anchor at about N50.55-N50.00 if the daily closes below N57.90 in anticipation of an overall N5.00-5.25 dividend at year end. Just be cash-ready.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:18pm On Nov 01, 2025
funkymedina2:
OMG ! Ladies and gentlemen ..Ellah Lakes, same period EOY July 2025, different results ..
May God have mercy , I am invested in this company. Please someone explain this and tell me I am tripping, please tell me how I am wrong
Relax. The first was unaudited. Now this should be the audited but wrongly captioned. They would probably correct in the coming week. That is not to say I am impressed….far from it.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:12pm On Nov 01, 2025
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45407_ELLAH_LAKES_PLC.-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2025.pdf




Should have been stated as audited FY as at July 31st or year ending July 2025. However, shouldn't they be in breach signing in October?
Needs to be made readable too. Financial signees on certification (Head of accounts, Financial Manager) are not consistent. I wish they would pay a bit more attention to what is handed out to the public. What of statement ending September 2025? Already in breach I guess.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 5:18pm On Nov 01, 2025

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 5:05pm On Nov 01, 2025
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:09am On Oct 31, 2025
Buchika:
Please pardon my ignorance. What is the GTCO INDEX, and how is it calculated?

I used your formula on NAHCO using a Q3 EPS of 2.35: 2.35 X 4 X 4 = 37.6 without penalty. What didn't I get right in the calculation?
Or does it mean that NAHCO is highly overpriced?
All it infers is that even if NAHCO pays out all of its full year earnings estimate of N9.21, will you be willing to wait out the PE years to cover your investment’s return assuming no further improvements in earnings? Would you be satisfied with N9 dividend or more realistically N7 after paying at current price? That’s the investment decision you need to make apart from blue chips being a store of value. We all try to beat inflation or at least TB/bonds..why earn less when you could earn more by settling for Tb or bonds, MF , CP etc. Always bear in mind that many got in at prices far far less..front row seats. They are extremely happy with the price as it is. But we, we will apply sense as long as we are not on a front row seat.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:44am On Oct 31, 2025
jonnysessy:
This your common sense in the entry point of NASCON ? I just wonder what will be Dangote Food entry price would be if it is going to be listed. cool
Please ignore my brother. The eps was annualized. I should have crossed checked. My apologies. Will double check henceforth and state on all other posts that it’s been crossed checked. I bought a bit on the excitement :.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:26am On Oct 31, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
I hope you know that the EPS is annualised?
Thank you for the information… I didn’t realize that
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:25am On Oct 31, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
Are you sure? Given the current results your target price will take the P/E to 20. I think it is rightly priced at PE of 10 which would be ca. 110-120
Please ignore eps was annualized
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:59am On Oct 31, 2025
crownprince2017:
The calculation was based on Q1 AND Q2 NUMBERS..

WEMA ALREADY ATTAINED YOUR ANNUALISED EPS IN 9 MONTHS.
Relax let me position for 10 am Nascon…Wema’s result is already annualized
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m):
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:04am On Oct 31, 2025
Can you spot where there is value?

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:29pm On Oct 30, 2025
jckgroup1:
TIP RI @N7. 00K and PO @N9.50K

@Aj8
Please common sense target for Oando grin
What’s the organic earning? Common sense strategy has to be applied to organic earnings. Search aj8 organic for further insight. In that way, the next earning is more mathematically predictable. However, what’s organic in one sector may not be organic in another sector. We need to apply small common sense in such too. It’s all about averaging out our expectations. No stock can resist appreciation above a price 4x its FY EPS as long as the earnings were derived from sheer sweat and administrative sensibilities, not even one. That’s the heart beat of the Common Sense Strategy.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 4:44pm On Oct 30, 2025
Ginalex:
If Cadbury enter sub 60(maybe 56 ish), I no go mind re-entering 🤔🤔. The red never red reach... Meanwhile who I offend for this prestige wey I buy grin grin
@Ginalex. Wait below N50, if it ever gets there. Or swim with another fish. Hard times ahead.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 4:33pm On Oct 30, 2025
Payunsin:
Cadbury on full offer, loaded it at 24 got to 74 greed no let me sell.
But no complains sha Na same greed carry me reach the current orice😬
The beauty of Common Sense. Consistent gain
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 4:17pm On Oct 30, 2025
chimex38:
@naturalflow the Q3 performance was not as good as Q2 performance that took it SP to 4+
It made ₦0.56 EPS in H1(Q1+Q2) which made estimated FY EPS to be about ₦1.10k! Consequently, this took SP to ₦4+
Q3 alone it made ₦0.13
(drop per Q). This shows it may not attain the FY EPS of ₦1.10k that was estimated by H1 that took the Share price to ₦4 if it continues with this ₦0.13 EPS in Q4.





I know Qtn is meant for Aj8.
But let me add.

EPS of MB is 0.69 Year-Till-Date(9Months).

We are only left with 1 quarter EPS to add to the EPS of 0.69 to get the Estimated FY EPS.

12=12 calender months
9= calender months.

0.69* 12/9 will give you the estimated full year EPS of ₦0.92k
He multiplies by 4 as his personal standard of average PE ratio of 4 for "most" companies which he calls common sense grin.
0.92* 4=₦3.68 as target price.

Alternative1,
4=4 quarters(12months; FY)
3= 3 quarters(9months)
he could as well have done 0.69*(4/3)=₦0.92
Then 0.92*4= ₦3.68 as target price.

For a more logical breakdown:
Alternatively 2, you can divide 0.69(Eps for 3 quarters) by 3 to get the EPS for 1 Quarter=
0.69/3= 0.23.

Then multiply 0.23 *4 to get the estimated full yr EPS= ₦0.92k.
Then multiply 0.92*4 to get the common sense target price of ₦3.68 as target price
Q.E.D Chimex
A1.


Also means for any to buy into value, one would need to buy well below 3.68 till we see improvement at FY , positive news or rumor before then, or a herd effect in the insurance sector driving prices up for a good reason etc. I will not reenter until I see something positive ( I had earlier sold off most of MB at N4.65 within our initial target. Market generally is clawing lower, rotating to the Blue chips.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:08pm On Oct 29, 2025
aj8:
Yes I know.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:58pm On Oct 29, 2025
Utalinmou:
The 520 na negative
Yes I know.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:58pm On Oct 29, 2025
Cash Cash Cash for future front row seats. Start Loading cash. Agba’s season seems pretty round the corner.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:46pm On Oct 29, 2025
Xidget:
@Aj8,

Please come give common sense analysis on Cadbury and MBENEFIT
Mutual Benefit revised Common Sense target down to[b] 3.68[/b] and Cadbury’s to 50.34 . They had earlier touched initial targets but may be time to retrace on weaker results. MM are likely to make final last minute push before the fall. Watch volumes.

Purely on the Common Sense Strategy.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:08am On Oct 29, 2025
chimex38:
EPS of Q2 alone na kobo kobo. Where dem wan get Money buy World Bank suppose be the main Queshion we dey talk of interim. grin cheesy
Na Q3 go give hope. If dem go reason pay.

Even Almighty Zenith pay from retained earnings.. That should have been the red flag for the banking sector.
Even with all this, there is a new kid on the block…Wema Bank. Their growth has been organic, driven by innovation, digital banking ALAT and capturing of the younger generation. Their expansion into a National bank could also add to the bank’s future prospects. If their Q3 remains positive, they can surpass N28.50.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:22am On Oct 21, 2025
So how much more can water be diluted?

Aj8
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:45pm On Oct 03, 2025
emmaodet:
Can you explain more about the debt calculation?
@emmaodet. You would notice from my previous posts, that I apply a 75% penalty on the calculations whenever the sentiments around the stock are below par despite their satisfactory eps for whatever reasons e.g poor dividend payout history, huge debts, etc to mention but two. This was actually the case for UBA before few years back, and recently Access Bank and quite a few others. These factors do affect the price dynamics via demand and supply. I must confess however sometimes sentiments hold despite these factors for some stocks as investors sometimes see potential beyond current sufferings which they are willing to endure for a greater good. The rule of thumb, is to apply the penalty, which really is to say, to be a bit more cautious in your expectations for those that we are likely to tag “ those that get as it be” for some reasons. You may wish to comb through some of my old posts for further insight. May I also add, that this strategy ( Common Sense ) overall, was a product from the ashes of the losses I incurred during and after the crash of the early 2000s, back in our stockmarketnigeria 1.0 days. I think so far it’s done pretty well but sometimes you can wait tire. But great alongside the picks of some of the gurus here and those with tremendous heart to share In-si-der information.

Like we all say. Apply your due diligence and research too. Happy trading sir.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:00am On Oct 02, 2025
PZ Common Sense Target is N53.40 . Penalty of 75% on N71.20 applied because of debts etc.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:26pm On Sep 23, 2025
yMcy56:
They're punishing ACCESS because of their stinginess and buy-buy spree....
I expect ACCESS to surprise investors.

Meanwhile, ACCESS requesting for time extension to publish results..... smiley
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/ACCESS_HOLDINGS_EXTENSION_OF_TIME_TO_PUBLISH_RESULTS.pdf
Probably want their Q3 released alongside H1 to mitigate a poor outcome and price drop. Good strategy if their Q3 is super.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:22am On Sep 22, 2025
Locotrader:
Royalex is the oldest insurance company in Nigeria.They are trusted for their services and one of the insurance companies to stand strong in the industry.

With just a total of 8B outstanding shares and free floats reduced because of this recent acquisition of Royalex shares,expect 200-500% rise in share price before capitalization deadline.

Market will greet Royalex today for this news
@Locotrader, they will not rise alone, just like in salary increase, there will be salary adjustments in all cadres, you cannot be priced more than your seniors. It's actually a vote of confidence for the insurance sector. So, I expect those around them to adjust too. Let's see what the market thinks. All said, kudos to your call. You have more than once proved that you are in and around the market makers. What I call Insider farsightedness. Respect!
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:23am On Sep 04, 2025
pluto09:
Any common sense pick at current price? huh
@pluto09.
Well-structured insurance companies will run more like quasi-banks. Their investment portfolio earnings should mirror yields in the bonds/treasury/mutual funds/CP etc. The extra funds from recapitalization if properly deployed should see those with strong interests in investments doing great even if core insurance is not so great in the immediacy until public perception or compliance is beaten into shape by strict legislation aided by stiff penalties for defaulters. Even though Mutual benefits has reached our lower target of N4.65, the current price of 3.43 is still good for at least a 50% upside to N5+ once their Q3 shows sustained momentum. Better still if you dive in at sub 3.15.

That is not to suggest that value doesn’t still exist elsewhere if considering dividend-paying stocks …
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 1:46pm On Sep 03, 2025
The bears are your friend. They offer front row seats to latecomers. Fortunately, you can hear them howling from every overbought ASI. Market makers don’t buy at the top. Once the top is hit they will by hook or crook disguised as “news”, swing it down to a comfortable buy zone and reposition for the big earnings on the last lap to year-end. Same pattern in most markets. Tag along if you have the cash to join in. The gain will be huge. Just make sure you buy into value. Happy trading.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:17pm On Sep 01, 2025
Mpeace:
It the same result they posted last week they reposted.
On Ellah

The first result was t signed!!!!! Or dated…

And even when signed , wasn’t by the CFO….


huh huh huh

Can anyone please clarify this…. huh

Shouldn’t Ngx vet these documents?

Or am I missing something?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:25pm On Aug 19, 2025
crownprince2017:
Quick one, Aj8 pls what is common sense strategy view on wema bank; sell, buy or hold.

Thanks.
@crownprince2017
Wema’s earnings are mostly organic so suitable for the strategy but sentiments around dividends ain't so great so I applied a 75% penalty.

Range is therefore 24.504 -32.672
The lower of the range is with the 75% applied and the upper is without.
So it’s a HOLD for me until next quarter when we can reassess based on their running EPS.

Below is the breakdown

H1 annualized EPS = 8.168
Common Sense Target = 8.168 x 4 = 32.672
75% of 32.672 = 24.504

Range = 24.504 - 32.672

Please also note that the last 3 months' EPS annualized is also showing improvement

So a N28.956 ( 75% applied) could still be expected if Q3 shows sustained momentum.

The company needs to match all this with an increase in dividends, north of N2.00 especially if full-year EPS ends up above N10.00, which I believe they would beat.


Just my opinion. Please still do your research.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:04am On Aug 15, 2025
ojeysky:
Attached is the result please where did you get the annualized info? Also can you try not to be insulting, this thread is not just to talk, and declare but to validate, educate and learn
My apologies if the phrase felt insulting. It was far from my intention sir. EPS is calculated from Earnings Divided by OS
OS = 39,605,421,535.00
Profit from your attachment = 41,191,937,000
Earnings / OS = 41,191,937,000 / 39,605,421,535.00

= 1.04 for 3 months
Annualized = 3months x 4 = 1.04 x4 = 4.17 approximately sir.

I pray and sincerely hope you have been educated.

Your apology is accepted even if you do not give one.

My apologies for having made you feel insulted. Again, it wasn’t my intention sir.

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