Aj8's Posts
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essentialone:No. More like the bottom. |
Agbalowomeri:GTCO, should anchor at or about N70.65 if daily closes below N84.65 in anticipation of an overall N7 dividend. Remember, supports and resistance are framed by market sentiments. They are not merely arbitrary lines. However, any inclination towards a lower dividend will drag prices further down, and higher if above N7.00. Zenith should anchor at about N50.55-N50.00 if the daily closes below N57.90 in anticipation of an overall N5.00-5.25 dividend at year end. Just be cash-ready. |
funkymedina2:Relax. The first was unaudited. Now this should be the audited but wrongly captioned. They would probably correct in the coming week. That is not to say I am impressed….far from it. |
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45407_ELLAH_LAKES_PLC.-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2025.pdf Should have been stated as audited FY as at July 31st or year ending July 2025. However, shouldn't they be in breach signing in October? Needs to be made readable too. Financial signees on certification (Head of accounts, Financial Manager) are not consistent. I wish they would pay a bit more attention to what is handed out to the public. What of statement ending September 2025? Already in breach I guess. |
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45407_ELLAH_LAKES_PLC.-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2025.pdf Same as before https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45407_ELLAH_LAKES_PLC.-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_NOVEMBER_2025.pdf November ![]()
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Buchika:All it infers is that even if NAHCO pays out all of its full year earnings estimate of N9.21, will you be willing to wait out the PE years to cover your investment’s return assuming no further improvements in earnings? Would you be satisfied with N9 dividend or more realistically N7 after paying at current price? That’s the investment decision you need to make apart from blue chips being a store of value. We all try to beat inflation or at least TB/bonds..why earn less when you could earn more by settling for Tb or bonds, MF , CP etc. Always bear in mind that many got in at prices far far less..front row seats. They are extremely happy with the price as it is. But we, we will apply sense as long as we are not on a front row seat. |
jonnysessy:Please ignore my brother. The eps was annualized. I should have crossed checked. My apologies. Will double check henceforth and state on all other posts that it’s been crossed checked. I bought a bit on the excitement :. |
Agbalowomeri:Thank you for the information… I didn’t realize that |
Agbalowomeri:Please ignore eps was annualized |
crownprince2017:Relax let me position for 10 am Nascon…Wema’s result is already annualized |
Can you spot where there is value?
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jckgroup1:What’s the organic earning? Common sense strategy has to be applied to organic earnings. Search aj8 organic for further insight. In that way, the next earning is more mathematically predictable. However, what’s organic in one sector may not be organic in another sector. We need to apply small common sense in such too. It’s all about averaging out our expectations. No stock can resist appreciation above a price 4x its FY EPS as long as the earnings were derived from sheer sweat and administrative sensibilities, not even one. That’s the heart beat of the Common Sense Strategy. |
Ginalex:@Ginalex. Wait below N50, if it ever gets there. Or swim with another fish. Hard times ahead. |
Payunsin:The beauty of Common Sense. Consistent gain |
chimex38:Q.E.D Chimex A1. Also means for any to buy into value, one would need to buy well below 3.68 till we see improvement at FY , positive news or rumor before then, or a herd effect in the insurance sector driving prices up for a good reason etc. I will not reenter until I see something positive ( I had earlier sold off most of MB at N4.65 within our initial target. Market generally is clawing lower, rotating to the Blue chips. |
aj8:
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Utalinmou:Yes I know. |
Cash Cash Cash for future front row seats. Start Loading cash. Agba’s season seems pretty round the corner. |
Xidget:Mutual Benefit revised Common Sense target down to[b] 3.68[/b] and Cadbury’s to 50.34 . They had earlier touched initial targets but may be time to retrace on weaker results. MM are likely to make final last minute push before the fall. Watch volumes. Purely on the Common Sense Strategy.
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chimex38:Even with all this, there is a new kid on the block…Wema Bank. Their growth has been organic, driven by innovation, digital banking ALAT and capturing of the younger generation. Their expansion into a National bank could also add to the bank’s future prospects. If their Q3 remains positive, they can surpass N28.50. |
So how much more can water be diluted? Aj8 |
emmaodet:@emmaodet. You would notice from my previous posts, that I apply a 75% penalty on the calculations whenever the sentiments around the stock are below par despite their satisfactory eps for whatever reasons e.g poor dividend payout history, huge debts, etc to mention but two. This was actually the case for UBA before few years back, and recently Access Bank and quite a few others. These factors do affect the price dynamics via demand and supply. I must confess however sometimes sentiments hold despite these factors for some stocks as investors sometimes see potential beyond current sufferings which they are willing to endure for a greater good. The rule of thumb, is to apply the penalty, which really is to say, to be a bit more cautious in your expectations for those that we are likely to tag “ those that get as it be” for some reasons. You may wish to comb through some of my old posts for further insight. May I also add, that this strategy ( Common Sense ) overall, was a product from the ashes of the losses I incurred during and after the crash of the early 2000s, back in our stockmarketnigeria 1.0 days. I think so far it’s done pretty well but sometimes you can wait tire. But great alongside the picks of some of the gurus here and those with tremendous heart to share In-si-der information. Like we all say. Apply your due diligence and research too. Happy trading sir. |
PZ Common Sense Target is N53.40 . Penalty of 75% on N71.20 applied because of debts etc.
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yMcy56:Probably want their Q3 released alongside H1 to mitigate a poor outcome and price drop. Good strategy if their Q3 is super. |
Locotrader:@Locotrader, they will not rise alone, just like in salary increase, there will be salary adjustments in all cadres, you cannot be priced more than your seniors. It's actually a vote of confidence for the insurance sector. So, I expect those around them to adjust too. Let's see what the market thinks. All said, kudos to your call. You have more than once proved that you are in and around the market makers. What I call Insider farsightedness. Respect! |
pluto09:@pluto09. Well-structured insurance companies will run more like quasi-banks. Their investment portfolio earnings should mirror yields in the bonds/treasury/mutual funds/CP etc. The extra funds from recapitalization if properly deployed should see those with strong interests in investments doing great even if core insurance is not so great in the immediacy until public perception or compliance is beaten into shape by strict legislation aided by stiff penalties for defaulters. Even though Mutual benefits has reached our lower target of N4.65, the current price of 3.43 is still good for at least a 50% upside to N5+ once their Q3 shows sustained momentum. Better still if you dive in at sub 3.15. That is not to suggest that value doesn’t still exist elsewhere if considering dividend-paying stocks … |
The bears are your friend. They offer front row seats to latecomers. Fortunately, you can hear them howling from every overbought ASI. Market makers don’t buy at the top. Once the top is hit they will by hook or crook disguised as “news”, swing it down to a comfortable buy zone and reposition for the big earnings on the last lap to year-end. Same pattern in most markets. Tag along if you have the cash to join in. The gain will be huge. Just make sure you buy into value. Happy trading. |
Mpeace:On Ellah The first result was t signed!!!!! Or dated… And even when signed , wasn’t by the CFO…. ![]() Can anyone please clarify this…. ![]() Shouldn’t Ngx vet these documents? Or am I missing something? |
crownprince2017:@crownprince2017 Wema’s earnings are mostly organic so suitable for the strategy but sentiments around dividends ain't so great so I applied a 75% penalty. Range is therefore 24.504 -32.672 The lower of the range is with the 75% applied and the upper is without. So it’s a HOLD for me until next quarter when we can reassess based on their running EPS. Below is the breakdown H1 annualized EPS = 8.168 Common Sense Target = 8.168 x 4 = 32.672 75% of 32.672 = 24.504 Range = 24.504 - 32.672 Please also note that the last 3 months' EPS annualized is also showing improvement So a N28.956 ( 75% applied) could still be expected if Q3 shows sustained momentum. The company needs to match all this with an increase in dividends, north of N2.00 especially if full-year EPS ends up above N10.00, which I believe they would beat. Just my opinion. Please still do your research. |
ojeysky:My apologies if the phrase felt insulting. It was far from my intention sir. EPS is calculated from Earnings Divided by OS OS = 39,605,421,535.00 Profit from your attachment = 41,191,937,000 Earnings / OS = 41,191,937,000 / 39,605,421,535.00 = 1.04 for 3 months Annualized = 3months x 4 = 1.04 x4 = 4.17 approximately sir. I pray and sincerely hope you have been educated. Your apology is accepted even if you do not give one. My apologies for having made you feel insulted. Again, it wasn’t my intention sir. |




