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Aj8's Posts

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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:03am On Apr 30, 2025
unite4real:
How come on the report, 2024 full year PAT of N87.4 Billion have EPS of 483 kobo while Q1 2025 with a PAT of N35.8 Billion is having 802 kobo.
Maybe I am not seeing well. Something is not adding up or I am not understanding something here.
Shouldn't a lower PAT mean lower EPS even when the company is having more OS
Its annualized
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 7:02pm On Apr 29, 2025
Wema Bank on the path to becoming a Systemically Important Bank (SIB)
New Common Sense Target for 2025 revised from N14 to N20 (nudged N14 today). Dividend target N2.00. Needs to pay interim to further support the “ too big to fail” pursuit.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:11am On Apr 29, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
I agree with you.

Just that I like to squeeze to the last drop grin
Thats okay. Just remember that they are negative on retained losses.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 3:16pm On Apr 28, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
Using a projected PE of 5 may be too conservative for these types of companies, it is fine for banks. It would definitely result in early exit. I expect them to match up to an average PE of 10 especially if they pay up to 50% and above of EPS as dividend.
I like to play safe sir, unless I am buying to hold. Important thing is that at the CP, its at a premium. Its good here at its CP for at least a 50% appreciation you would agree sir. Can always adjust at Q2…if I am still in by then. Having a target allows one to enjoy the proceeds. Its only cash if banked.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:49pm On Apr 28, 2025
Cadbury, another good pick. Short term target N42.00 Mid term N52.00. Will reappraisal after Q2.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:03am On Apr 28, 2025
aj8:
APR

It’s good for those already invested into it, having already received bonuses, and now still the prospects of getting at least a 50k dividend in FY 2025. Not so good for a new investor as 2025 yield at the current price may seem an embarrassment. Front-row seats are already filled. You just have to wait for something catastrophic to happen to jump in ( our prayer is of course that no such thing happens for all our sake). Train gone way past the station. Let’s not pick a fight with those already in the stock who will not agree with the current valuation having made their gains and plan to hold on tight.

@that say me please.
I personally feel that heavy dilution and still maintaining high stock prices/ and about the same dividends is a strategy to ward off deep-pocket mercenaries. Only initial investors are winners for years till value comes at par. Quite some sense!! Just my thoughts.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:51am On Apr 28, 2025
Picky1:
This looks interesting.....AJ8, what say you please? cool
APR

It’s good for those already invested into it, having already received bonuses, and now still the prospects of getting at least a 50k dividend in FY 2025. Not so good for a new investor as 2025 yield at the current price may seem an embarrassment. Front-row seats are already filled. You just have to wait for something catastrophic to happen to jump in ( our prayer is of course that no such thing happens for all our sake). Train gone way past the station. Let’s not pick a fight with those already in the stock who will not agree with the current valuation having made their gains and plan to hold on tight.

@that say me please.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:39pm On Apr 25, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
This stock will see 80

Disclosure: I no dey inside o
That’s okay, no problem. Some have to offload for those that would take it to 80 smiley. No BUY without a SELL n’est pas? Just know your target, hit it and make room for others. However, should the metrics change , so would I.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 5:48pm On Apr 25, 2025
Common Sense Target Range for NASCON 59.84-74.80. Good if entered much lower. I will offload what I have at N60.00.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:27am On Apr 24, 2025
Set your Zenith bank alarm to 10 am today and start to watch Zenith bank trade volumes in the first 1 hour of trade. Can draw interesting assumptions before the Q1 release. If Q1 is not released at or before the market open.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:50am On Apr 17, 2025
Common Sense target for NIgerian Brewries N60-N104. Probably over a year. However should rapidly climb above N50 if nothing catastrophic happens.

Please do your due diligence

Just my common sense
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:58am On Apr 10, 2025
yMcy56:
Green land today.....
Is well o. 😊

ACCESS: Wonder what's happening here....
Heavy volumes.....with upandan movements
Access: High volume (deep pockets) transaction significantly below opening price ( covered charges) , around support, ready to move up!. AMD: (M)

Reverse for FCMB… AMD : (M)

AMD = Accumulation Manipulation Distribution:

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:43am On Apr 05, 2025
yMcy56:
Whosoever cannot decode between the lines should continue to listen to those spreading panic.

OANDO is not like DS/NS, those ones went up as a result of merger which was later put on hold.

I won't advice anyone that picks at high price to sell at loss.
If you can get other funds, just keep it for averaging down once the tide is about to change.

An Upstream Company selling at ridiculous price, yet someone who's praying to enter cheaper, and ironically the prayer is being currently answered will continue to do and say anything to get his wish granted.

When retailers finished granting billionaires their wish, then billionaires will take it up to their desired price.
…….@When retailers finished granting billionaires their wish, then billionaires will take it up to their desired price


So beautifully put I couldnt resist not archiving for future general reference. Simply put yet brilliant and true. 🫡🫡🫡

The vulture is an interesting animal and don't blame some who regard it a disgusting bird, in the wild, the way it lurks around seeking and possibly praying on the vulnerable.…lets not forget that shares are peoples funds and investments. A stock crash can be painful without funds to average down. But even more painful is the lack of empathy on a down turn. Lets tamper our buy the dippty dips with empathy. Averaging down is one of two proven strategies to beat the market….when the resources are available.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:04pm On Apr 03, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
So your strategy qualifies you to buy GTCO at 70? Would you? grin
No sir.

If you had read the tea leaves at Q1, you would have entered below N30 and now preparing to sell at 69 or hold for dividends sir. I know you are a very busy gentleman but I urge you to review my earlier posts you may pick up a thing or two.The mind is like a parachute, it works better when open.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:52pm On Apr 03, 2025
Raider76:
I wonder how many stocks per year on average, do you get chance to enter based on this entry strategy?
Fewer. But who says you can't place Nmillions on a few promising stocks? Just remember to rebalance once you hit the target unless current released earnings show continued positive metrics and hence reasons to hold to a higher price or for dividends ( if such historically exist ). You can check my earlier posts. Greed is the only enemy. I learnt a few lessons after the last market crash.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:28pm On Apr 03, 2025
vacanci:
Thank you sir.

I want to understand the bolded (that you use which one is higher of the 2 metrics)

Lets use zenith for example

EPS is N32 (32 X 4 = N96)
Div is N5 (N5 X 10 = N50)

Since is N96 is higher, does it mean any price below N96 is what you consider?
Yes. But not any price below, but any price way below. The aim is to sell at those prices having keyed in much lower, having taken an earlier front-row seat in the stock holding only if the metrics change positively to a higher valuation in future earnings. But please note. My use of the term “way below”. For the above example, I would also apply a 75% penalty ( N72.00) on my calculation based on EPS since the market considers N5.00 poor. The lower your entry price, the better your possible gain. The above are valuations. So aim at buying at a huge discount. Let's consider for instance that Zenith pays 2025 interim of N2.00, the market would be right to expect a final of N5.00 or a total of N7 at year-end which should drive prices above N80 before year-end. And, anything higher than N7? Yes …..your guess is as good as mine.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:43am On Apr 03, 2025
yMcy56:
@Aj8 or any of the gurus,
Between OKOMU and DANGCEM which can you recommend at current price based on the latest results pls.

**Updated**
Sorted!
@yMcy56
You probably would have guessed that that at their current prices, I would not jump into either. Why? Simply because they are way above the metrics I use for my Common Sense Entry Strategy. For this strategy, my entry is gauged either on estimated EPS, where I buy into at a price way below (EPS x 4), or buy at a price way below 10x estimated dividends. I use whichever is higher of the two metrics. I don’t however doubt their potential to appreciate bearing in mind their valuation based on P/E. The cost of raw rubber is forecast to continue its climb so would expect Okomu to do well into 2025 and probably pay higher dividends if not at least the same total of N36. So my entry for Okomu would be N360 or lower which I doubt if they would ever drop to that …hence my not jumping in but would if it does. Dangote in the same vein N300 is based on dividends. Can safely jump in if it ever drops below that price which again I doubt it would.
So far, the strategy has kept my funds safe and I pray it continues that way.

The aim remains to get into a front row seat on any stock before it starts to climb. Not when the train has departed the station. However should the train return to the station Jump in.

The gurus on this platform will be able to do justice to this. I don’t consider myself one.

These are purely my thoughts. Please pick whatever seems flesh and throw away the bone.

Thank you for the tremendous good you are doing on this platform. You have my respect.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:05am On Mar 27, 2025
TIP

Common Sense target sees at least approximately 50% appreciation. Target N6.2

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:25am On Mar 27, 2025
ositadima1:
Based on Zenith's strong financial statement and favorable projections, the stock is likely to surpass 60 (this year or next if no external wahala).
There are two figures on my mind based on Common Sense 63 and 96. Better still range 63-96. Q1 will give clarity. Of course not unless something very catastrophic happens. If Q1 shows significant upside then expect 63 quickly after that, towards a total dividend of at least N6 at FY
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:58pm On Mar 26, 2025
Mpeace:
Its even 3.50 not N4.
This there EPs of N32 is clearly audio.
N4.00
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:43pm On Mar 26, 2025
Ades1:
Right! If it stays at current price or goes lower, I will hold and manage the change.

If prices go higher with 10-15% I am selling!
The price will leverage on the Q1 results which I believe the bank would strategically release quickly if favorable. Zenith is already airborne concerning the new capital requirement. Market makers and insiders however don’t like to buy high so may split purchases into multiples below 100k units in an attempt to peg the price within mid 40s. Price likely to blast off once the Q1 comes in showing massive Q1 earnings to buoy enthusiasm for H 1 Interim dividend above N2.00
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:57pm On Mar 26, 2025
Really impressive

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:36am On Mar 19, 2025
currentprice:
Month of March is here.... update

From TA angle. NSE INDEX still on the bullish side with pullback going on at the moment awaiting banking & others 2024 financial report and the DIVIDEND

The awaiting report/dividend declaration in my opinion is what the market waiting 4.... to take direction. in the past most time, once dividend declared market nosedive. is the same scenario going to play out? time will tell lipsrsealed

watch out for this support levels 105,375 first, if that support fail to hold. 101.000 must not be breach otherwise market will become yam pepper scatter scatter embarassed

grin grin grin grin grin
Let’s see today’s candle/ volume print for a clearer picture.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:02pm On Mar 18, 2025
toyeoye:
🚨 ETF Watch: VSPBONDETF Plummets 38.71%! 🚨

This ETF, which tracks the S&P Nigerian Sovereign Bond Index, took a massive hit today. Bond market jitters or something bigger?
There is nothing strange here. The NAV is 134.45. VSPBONDETF can be extremely volatile. The volume can be ridiculously low when available. Prices are rebalanced every 6 months. Beware!!!.

Beware of these trades!!!
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m):
Common Sense target for Mutual Benefit is good for at least a 50% return from current price. Track record is not so good so I applied a 75% penalty in the calculation. Target is therefore 92k. Its 23/3 x 4 x4 and apply 75%

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:32am On Mar 06, 2025
Final lap….towards dividend. Target same as before..N14.00 if they deliver.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:40am On Mar 05, 2025
aj8:
Wema looks good for at least N12.00.
The banks’ financial dry season is about to end. The wet dividend season is loading. As usual, some banks would want to push approval to after the first quarter, 31st March, to leverage prices on a show of strength in their first quarter results. Keenly watching Wema. Wema needs to show considerable strength in dividends to make the upcoming offers attractive.

My new target for Wema is N14.00ish. Should be easy enough if they can pay N0.75 dividend alongside a good show of strength in the first quarter of 2025 to help push their price well over N12.00. This would boost an offer to the public at or around N12.00.
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:50am On Feb 28, 2025
KarlTom:
ZENITH! shocked
Could it be the MTN issue?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 4:42pm On Feb 05, 2025
Top Ten Trades Today/ Top Twenty Trades Today

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 3:49pm On Jan 31, 2025
jonnysessy:
They announced N1.05k after their full result and i quickly decided to offload some of my holdings only for them to come out and announce a fantastic Q1 and the price begin to head up north. I just hope they will maintain the tempo throughout the quarter. Maybe, If I was patient enough could have benefited more. Patience remains a vital key in investment.
…….and sometimes more. Multiple Insiders were buying even before the year end results. smiley . Wouldn’t that mean something?
Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 3:33pm On Jan 31, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
I think the ability to achieve the revenue of N300 billion in 5 years time based on their forecast with a net margin of 20% will do.

Tbey have already exceeded the revenue target for 2024

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:34pm On Jan 31, 2025
pluto09:
We need someone to provide the needed 100k units to move it to the next level.
Those who need it to move, do so last minute with above 100k transact till it gets where they want it to be. Call it manipulation if you choose. Just follow the lead.

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