₦airaland Forum

Ginalex:
the 12weeks flew by really fast 🥺.

With children in the equation, time no longer shows respect. The time between school fees for instance can dash by very fast. Welcome back to the platform as you prepare for the next phase…..years of school runs. Well done.

It seems (from my observation) that some of the banks that released unaudited results in H1 did not apply the same tax rules as those audited and further scrutinized by the CBN. We just might see a drop in PAT in those banks after adjusting for the new tax rules if they are in default. Or have I missed something? I could be wrong though. Any comments?

Agbalowomeri:
You think they don't know what they are doing? By the time it nosedives to 20, they will now bring out 1 for 1 right issue. Of course most people will not subscribe. That leaves the majority owner to further accumulate more percentage of the company.

For further clarity.
Common sense value then was 7.7 and now 77 on EPS of 15.4 annualized. Can they pay out at least N3.00? They have to.


Prior
0.77 x 2 = 1.54
1.54 x 5 = 7.7

Poor Sterling Bank. Still a penny stock in the minds of investors. The reverse stock split was a huge mistake. They should have just aggressively bought back their shares over the next 10 years. The next mistake they would make would be to pay a dividend of N1.00 or less. Price could well drop to N10. A clear lesson of “ You can't eat your bread and have it “.

Stockpromoter:
It is expected.
It's over eight years the stock has been dormant.
It's time for the investors to participate in their own bull despite the loss results but there is a strong catalyst behind the stock move now.

I am happy for the move

It has nothing to do with being dormant. Value was injected. It's merely trying to scale up to the value. Expect them to come back to the market in the future to raise more capital. The company can not operate meaningfully at this level.

yMcy56:
MULTI-TREX bids exceeds their declared loss.....
No single drop as at now...😊

Don't expect a drop till it crosses N1.89, the price of the private placement that drew it out of her woes.

Common Sense Target for GTCO based on H1 is 111.80. The lower the fall below 111.80 the better the entry. I expect some media engineering around a probable high-end-of-year dividend payout to help prop up the price maybe around N120 till Q3 results show improved prospects. I would consider buying at prices within N105.00-N111.00 should it fall to that range.

Streetinvestor2:
It is absolutely madness for ipo to be 124 billion units. So if he decides to come for PO in future what happens. Even space x na how many units be the OS.Even a sign of greed he still took 84% of this OS to himself. Then releasing balablu statement that the Refinery is national asset or him creating wealth for Nigerians. How now.He just need Nigerians that will make his voice loud anytime his business is threatened by government action. If he so loved Nigerians.He should have made the business ownership 50/50 for himself and Nigerians / government/PP guys

Exactly, that's why it just makes sense to do a reconstruction in future. The Par value is barely 2 kobo as it is.

jonnysessy:
Your observation noted. I really kind of think that the 120 billion outstanding shares is crazy. How many companies in NGX have that kind of OS. A share reconstruction might just be in the offing. More so, if that is the case the share price may eventually drop immediately such is proposed. Such share reconstruction had never favoured investors.

But, another school of thought will say that the share price and minimum quantity is arrived at so that every interested retail investor can participate. As no one knows tomorrow, so also know one can rightly predict this market. But, one thing is certain Dangote and the advisory councils/ issuing houses or even the NGX /SEC may know a thing or two about this over-hyped IPO that you and i do not know.

The speculations continue till this IPO come and go............

😊Yeah, you are right to think so too, more like killing two birds with one stone… by then, would have picked up every early bird interested retail investor via IPO and then reconstruct for the foreign listing. Mind you, would have been even better, it grows organically to the point the figures will look attractive to the US market and not as a penny stock. A reverse stock split won't be necessary though if it grows organically say X5-X10 before listing as long as it's NOT “organically puffed up” like Geregu requiring it's deflation by the very dynamic US market forces.

mikeapollo:
You may be right.
But it would be wrong pr misleading for them to see Seplat as their rival, competitor, industry benchmark etc.
The refinery sells refined products and operates in the midstream/downstream sector supplying to retail local and foreign customers.
Seplat drills, sells crude, and operates in the upstream, supplying to only foreign customers (refineries etc)

Yes, you are right, BUT, the comparison is not really in terms of operations but that of yield, dividends, price to price shoulder to shoulder, value to value. It's in giants to show strength.

ghm:
Speculation promaxx.

You can say that again! List 120 billion units on the US market in a couple of years? No, not likely at less than a Dollar. Time will reveal what it holds.

I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but the fact that the Dangote refinery is requiring a minimum purchase of 10 units and it's Par value of 0.000013USD, is a pointer to a future consolidation of 10 for 1 reverse split, likely before they list on the US market in a few years. 10 units will then become 1 unit. That would pair them up well with/against Seplat for easier price determination/ appreciation/comparison.

For Dangote Refinery, I am not buying the IPO. I believe it will be oversubscribed, with the possibility of absorbing part of the excess. I would however consider buying at N375 or below, should it drop to that. Sadly, or perhaps fortunately, depending on the availability of cash, a drop to 375 will trigger another round of even more massive rotation sell-offs as portfolios are again milked for funds (though more desperately and aggressively) to invest in the shares of the Dangote Refinery below N375. This would drive the price up finally. There is however the possibility that prices will never fall to below 375 and I would stand the chance of missing out. Well, so be it. You win some you lose some. It's probably going to end up like SpaceX which though peaked at $225.64 after IPO, I eventually got in at $108.

For anyone who would not want to miss out completely, buy some at the IPO and top up if it drops later. Me it's ☝️

Research and Due diligence always. Not in any way investment advice.

Agbalowomeri:
Yes, and I am saying he demonstrated that he has limited practical knowledge of how it has been working. Otherwise, he wouldn't make this statement
[/b]
"Under the previous regime,[b] a single small transaction could alter a stock’s recorded price, creating a misleading impression of market sentiment. By requiring a minimum volume of activity before prices are allowed to move, the NGX is seeking to ensure that price signals carry real economic content."

Abi na today we don dey do 100k?
We have been through this cycle before and it is not new. We did 10k for 500 and above (or was it N100 stock? can't remember). So, it's not new

Or am I missing something in my understanding of Prof’s statement above that small volumes should eat only off the plate of significant volume transactions?, No Prof. The bolded is the beauty of the Ngx…there is no misleading sentiment as the recorded price does not end up as the adjusted price if the threshold is not reached.

It seems that some powers/institutions do not like our position as one of the best-performing exchanges in the world and our “JIJO” mentality. Sounds more like a repeat of the Structural Adjustment Program ( applied to our stock exchange), which derailed our exchange rates forever. Allow the noise ( low volume transactions to move price intraday if so be it ), but adjust the volume threshold as now proposed ( new threshold volumes that move the price to whatever price within or at 10% maximum at close), is a better option. Allow the noise, it’s unique and attractive.

Updated. BM

emmanuelewumi:
This is too ambitious. I think N500 is possible by December 2026

@emmanuelewumi, We missed your investment grey hair. Welcome back. God is with you.

Ginalex:
Fest bank wetin dey occur??

Meanwhile, my husband and I welcomed our bundle of joy 2days ago. 👶

Ginalex, congratulations to you, hubby and the rest of the family. Like arrows in the hands of a warrior
are children born in one’s youth. May our Heavenly Father supply all that's needed to sharpen him and his siblings in this life and onto eternity. Train up a child in the way he should go; even when he is old he will not depart from it. This one obviously for you and husband I guess investment follow? May the Almighty show you His Grace, mercies, plus bonuses and dividends on account of this blessing. Congratulations my dear sister. Enjoy your Omugwo..but don't eat alone……hubby too.

Unless something really catastrophic happens, Access is good for 59.04 - 73.80

All depends on Q2.

essentialone:
Multiplying that raw quarterly yield of 0.11 kobo by 4, gives an annualized run rate of ₦0.44 per share. If the market prices it at a highly conservative insurance sector Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple of 4x, the implied valuation lands at ₦1.76 per share. Yet, looking at the VERITASKAP current price, the stock is currently languishing in the ₦1.40 to ₦1.57 range. This discount proves the market is rejecting the official "weighted average" numbers.

So, which way forward?

Q2 will give clarity. But before then, you may wish to monitor volumes vs price around 30th July BM… may indicate insider knowledge good or bad. On the NGX, nothing stays below x4 for long unless something is structurally wrong with the sector. Fix the structure and everything will change.

Updated. BM

aj8:
FIRST BANK HOLD CO
Common Sense Target range

6x4x4=96
6x4x5=120

Range N96-N120

Based on Q1

New Common Sense target

11.74 x 2 x 4 = 93.92
11.74 x 2 x 5 = 117.40

Range 93.92 - 117.40


Careful not to buy at the top

Board Meetings.

jonnysessy:
But, this your ratio is not reflective on the dividend paid by both companies. Are you postulating that instead of by 1 unit of Zenith bank share, i should buy 3.5 or 4 units of WEMA bank ? Everyone has what works for them, if i have WEMA bank, i will sell it and plunge in everything on Zenith bank.

Of course not. Ratio is ratio. It's the market’s relative valuation even with the differential in dividends as of the date. Imagine you've been buying toilet paper vs tomatoes at a price ratio of 4:1 and suddenly the price changes to 3.5:1, see it more like so. What would you infer? This is not about what works. It's more of applying some common sense.

aj8:
Zenith: Wema
Roughly 4:1
Ratio has so far been maintained.
I am watching this ratio closely.

Zenith: Wema

105:30

3.5:1

Pay close attention to Wema especially if the gap narrows further or else expect Zenith to sharply rise to 120 to maintain 4:1.
Ratios were formulated from their annualized earnings and had been held substantially for months. The lower ratio could point to an improvement in Wema’s Q3 earnings relative to Zenith’s, narrowing the ratio; probably influenced by insider information. A ratio above 4:1 could point in favour of Zenith, maybe an interim dividend or further improvement in her earnings.

HesInMe:
With respect, if your portfolio's return is actually negative, you're doing something wrong. Despite the recent pullback, the market is still up 40% YTD. You shouldn't be losing money if you simply passively bought the entire market. So you should just accept that this investment thing isn't your thing, and turn your assets over to StanbicIBTC or Vetiva to manage for you.

No shame in acknowledging that you have competitive advantage in other areas.

“In a forest, regardless of the weather, the Iroko tree is more likely to withstand better”

No sir, they are not doing anything wrong. Just part of the learning curve.
Rather I share Mercy’s advice to anyone in this predicament, not to sell your losing stocks. Seek advice from those with investment grey hair and there are many here..Pa Emma, Sunrisepepple, Mercy, awesomeJ, megawealth01, pluto9, Karltom, Osita..Gina and Chimex to mention just a few, that in my opinion, have a sanguine disposition to investment. We are actually all here because we wish to learn. We wish to be more profitable. Whether you own billions of Naira or just kobos. Some may need to learn more than others. Send them a private message/review their previous posts, if necessary, they would be more than happy to help. Markets climb and fall , that’s what markets naturally do. You only lose when you sell. Businesses are in business because they believe in themselves or else they would have shut down. Convert the poor performers to long-term stocks to give them time. Some that were even suspended some time in the past, have found themselves back on the exchange. However, learn and master which companies are the “Iroko tree stocks” in the investment forest and stick to those e.g from the Ngx30s. Buy the IROKO stocks at the right prices by whatever assessment strategy suits your appetite. Learn to recalibrate after every earnings report released by these “IROKO stocks” to discover if you are still on the right side of profit or need to switch. Never buy a stock without understanding what the company does and whether it’s profitable or potentially profitable. Learn to analyze financial statements. Follow every disclosure on Ngx to box stocks into profitable or potentially profitable. Outside of this, it could well be a gamble.

By the way, how is Pa Emma, haven't seen his post for a while.

Prospects for a return to bullishness are looking good technically for Zenith and Wema Bank. Both have hit a strong support, which should hold. Watch out from this point, for high volume upticks with marked price appreciation that could point to positive insider peep into good results.

essentialone:
That too.

Expect worse during this World Cup.

Please has anyone done the maths as to how much is likely to accrue to the Ngx group from Dangote Refinery’s listing? Would it be substantial? What are the commission fees like for listings and would it impact their revenue significantly? Ngx group is on my mind.

yMcy56:
FBNH don dey climb small small 😊
N1T Cap base must be achieved anyhow anyhow...

Oga Aj8, what's with this VERITASKAP stagnancy self?
Pls sir what's the new common sense target...😊

ARADEL: Why are retailers selling, when they'll again start pursuing at high price?
Can't they see the heavy cross deals?

@yMcy56, the stagnancy is the market’s current interpretation of the company’s worth.
Some notable issues
1. OS is 13.8b but the weighted average was used in the calculation of the EPS for both the end of the year 2025 and Q1 2026
2. Premium fell significantly in Q1
3. The forecast for Q2 as provided by the company headed south
4. Cash dropped significantly
5. The general “COVID” affecting mostly the low-cap insurance firms, probably a reflection of how we all view insurance here in Nigeria..” If you must use insurance, play with the big caps to avoid long grammar etc. “
6. Etc still plenty.

However Common Sense based on an average of 4 is as follows ( market doesn't trust the weighted average I guess)
So let's compute based on the OS out there for now.

OS= 13,866,666,666.00 NGX
Q1 2026 = 1, 535, 227 bill approx
EPS based on above = 1,535,227/13,866,666,666.00
=0.11
X 4 =0.44
X4 again = 1.76

Until there is some clarity around the OS now and in the future viz a viz recap status…..

That’s where the market seems to be for now.

Let’s look towards Q2

Zenith: Wema
Roughly 4:1
Ratio has so far been maintained.
I am watching this ratio closely.

nosa2:
https://ngxforum.com/thread/124/marketwatch?page=3

I shared my thoughts on that page many moons ago.

Thank you for responding. Please kindly cross-check the link you gave above, I couldn't find anything related to the subject. I landed on page 3 but it was a bit difficult navigating the forum. I couldn't locate thread 124.