₦airaland Forum

Board Meetings.

jonnysessy:
But, this your ratio is not reflective on the dividend paid by both companies. Are you postulating that instead of by 1 unit of Zenith bank share, i should buy 3.5 or 4 units of WEMA bank ? Everyone has what works for them, if i have WEMA bank, i will sell it and plunge in everything on Zenith bank.

Of course not. Ratio is ratio. It's the market’s relative valuation even with the differential in dividends as of the date. Imagine you've been buying toilet paper vs tomatoes at a price ratio of 4:1 and suddenly the price changes to 3.5:1, see it more like so. What would you infer? This is not about what works. It's more of applying some common sense.

aj8:
Zenith: Wema
Roughly 4:1
Ratio has so far been maintained.
I am watching this ratio closely.

Zenith: Wema

105:30

3.5:1

Pay close attention to Wema especially if the gap narrows further or else expect Zenith to sharply rise to 120 to maintain 4:1.
Ratios were formulated from their annualized earnings and had been held substantially for months. The lower ratio could point to an improvement in Wema’s Q3 earnings relative to Zenith’s, narrowing the ratio; probably influenced by insider information. A ratio above 4:1 could point in favour of Zenith, maybe an interim dividend or further improvement in her earnings.

HesInMe:
With respect, if your portfolio's return is actually negative, you're doing something wrong. Despite the recent pullback, the market is still up 40% YTD. You shouldn't be losing money if you simply passively bought the entire market. So you should just accept that this investment thing isn't your thing, and turn your assets over to StanbicIBTC or Vetiva to manage for you.

No shame in acknowledging that you have competitive advantage in other areas.

“In a forest, regardless of the weather, the Iroko tree is more likely to withstand better”

No sir, they are not doing anything wrong. Just part of the learning curve.
Rather I share Mercy’s advice to anyone in this predicament, not to sell your losing stocks. Seek advice from those with investment grey hair and there are many here..Pa Emma, Sunrisepepple, Mercy, awesomeJ, megawealth01, pluto9, Karltom, Osita..Gina and Chimex to mention just a few, that in my opinion, have a sanguine disposition to investment. We are actually all here because we wish to learn. We wish to be more profitable. Whether you own billions of Naira or just kobos. Some may need to learn more than others. Send them a private message/review their previous posts, if necessary, they would be more than happy to help. Markets climb and fall , that’s what markets naturally do. You only lose when you sell. Businesses are in business because they believe in themselves or else they would have shut down. Convert the poor performers to long-term stocks to give them time. Some that were even suspended some time in the past, have found themselves back on the exchange. However, learn and master which companies are the “Iroko tree stocks” in the investment forest and stick to those e.g from the Ngx30s. Buy the IROKO stocks at the right prices by whatever assessment strategy suits your appetite. Learn to recalibrate after every earnings report released by these “IROKO stocks” to discover if you are still on the right side of profit or need to switch. Never buy a stock without understanding what the company does and whether it’s profitable or potentially profitable. Learn to analyze financial statements. Follow every disclosure on Ngx to box stocks into profitable or potentially profitable. Outside of this, it could well be a gamble.

By the way, how is Pa Emma, haven't seen his post for a while.

Prospects for a return to bullishness are looking good technically for Zenith and Wema Bank. Both have hit a strong support, which should hold. Watch out from this point, for high volume upticks with marked price appreciation that could point to positive insider peep into good results.

essentialone:
That too.

Expect worse during this World Cup.

Please has anyone done the maths as to how much is likely to accrue to the Ngx group from Dangote Refinery’s listing? Would it be substantial? What are the commission fees like for listings and would it impact their revenue significantly? Ngx group is on my mind.

yMcy56:
FBNH don dey climb small small 😊
N1T Cap base must be achieved anyhow anyhow...

Oga Aj8, what's with this VERITASKAP stagnancy self?
Pls sir what's the new common sense target...😊

ARADEL: Why are retailers selling, when they'll again start pursuing at high price?
Can't they see the heavy cross deals?

@yMcy56, the stagnancy is the market’s current interpretation of the company’s worth.
Some notable issues
1. OS is 13.8b but the weighted average was used in the calculation of the EPS for both the end of the year 2025 and Q1 2026
2. Premium fell significantly in Q1
3. The forecast for Q2 as provided by the company headed south
4. Cash dropped significantly
5. The general “COVID” affecting mostly the low-cap insurance firms, probably a reflection of how we all view insurance here in Nigeria..” If you must use insurance, play with the big caps to avoid long grammar etc. “
6. Etc still plenty.

However Common Sense based on an average of 4 is as follows ( market doesn't trust the weighted average I guess)
So let's compute based on the OS out there for now.

OS= 13,866,666,666.00 NGX
Q1 2026 = 1, 535, 227 bill approx
EPS based on above = 1,535,227/13,866,666,666.00
=0.11
X 4 =0.44
X4 again = 1.76

Until there is some clarity around the OS now and in the future viz a viz recap status…..

That’s where the market seems to be for now.

Let’s look towards Q2

Zenith: Wema
Roughly 4:1
Ratio has so far been maintained.
I am watching this ratio closely.

nosa2:
https://ngxforum.com/thread/124/marketwatch?page=3

I shared my thoughts on that page many moons ago.

Thank you for responding. Please kindly cross-check the link you gave above, I couldn't find anything related to the subject. I landed on page 3 but it was a bit difficult navigating the forum. I couldn't locate thread 124.

nosa2:
No it hasn't. One day movement does not define a trend.

PS right now my price Target has dropped to N7

Please @Nosa2, what is this prediction based on? Kindly throw more light. Thank you.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/47057_FIDELITY_BANK_PLC-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MAY_2026.pdf

Vs.


https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/46842_WEMA_BANK_PLC.-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2026.pdf

Jaiz Bank

Most “colorful “ report. Earnings are not as colorful though.

megawealth01:
Una wan punish sterling too

Although I don't like the bank, maybe I might consider it at sub 4 naira

Definitely but not likely to drop that much because of maintaining its(her) EPS. That's hope embedding some positivity. I would be happy to buy below 5 and average down if necessary. Q2 will spell it all out to either upside or downside from the range. Except for some other positive news.

Streetinvestor2:
This bank has been a useless bank for too long...walahi

All left to Q 2 results. Its huge OS is a problem. But it at least maintained Q1 EPS of 2025 in Q1 2026 even with this large OS. That's still an achievement. Seems already priced in at the upper end of the range.

Sterling Bank
Common Sense Target based on Q1 2026

0.38x4x4=6.08
0.38x4x5=7.60

Range 6.08 - 7.60


Best entry at least 20% below 6.08-7.60 (4.86-6.08 ). The lower, the entry, the better.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38_INSIDER_DEALING-_SMARTCITY1-NGX_APPROVED.pdf






FYI

Mankind2024:
You are obviously a student of Jim Simons. I believe you know him quite well.
Here are some video links that further describe his philosophy, style, and approach to the market.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weD2tVLaIEQ?si=vD99dTi1BbH0hZZW


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83w1t26wHKU?si=zu1dCZyrlXzpXAO5



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTQcLi6SpX8?si=XZn--bsjaf8wtzV0



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2QB6H1H0Ps?si=wpmUjgETgUh8DLoo

Thank you so much, sir.
Warmly and truly appreciated

zendi:
I just hope you will be better than Sir Isaac Newton at applying physics to stock trading.
Newton's math and physics did not help him avoid a horrendous trading mishap in 1720.

He had exited from a successful JIJO with massive loot. But the same stock started even accelerating like Zichis after he had exited.
Struck by the primordial emotion of FOMO, Sir Isaac could not bear to watch the rest of the bull from the sidelines. So he gathered all the former and the later available funds and re-entered for a second round of profit taking. Shortly after that, too bad of the wicked Mr Market, in a notoriously familiar slang, the heist cast.

At age 77, Sir Isaac lost both his former and later fortunes. He was so heart-broken, it was said, that for the rest of his life, he could not bear to hear the name of that company mentioned in his presence.

He later said, "I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people".

"The madness of people" Oga Isaac could not calculate was that the ZENDIs of that market would not let him dump the same stock on them and take profit a second time when they had not taken even once themselves.

He mastered math and science, but did not master his emotion of greed, which would have saved him fortunes.


Please be advised that I write my comments as the spirit leads, and usually in my habitual everyday language with a healthy serving of nsempese terms sprinkled in. Bear with me.

I have interpreted your write-up as a prayer. So I am going to say, Amen!
So, Amen!!

emmanuelewumi:
I got mine this evening

Thank God Pa Emma, I am still waiting for mine.

aj8:
I found your write-up interesting and engaging, however, I would like to add something I have applied over the years and found really helpful, in fact, I rate it 10 on a 0 to 10. The application is drawn from my knowledge of Physics and is extremely important in appreciating and quantifying demand and supply imbalance.

1. Demand Volume x price is the force or energy. News can act as a force or energy through the modification of demand

Newton's First Law States, An object at rest remains at rest, or if in motion, remains in motion at a constant velocity unless acted on by a net external force, that an object will not change its motion unless a force acts on it.

An asset in motion/rest, tends to stay in motion/rest unless acted upon by an external force ( news or institutionally significant volume)

For our stock trade purposes, motion could be up trend or down unless at rest

2. Force is required to overcome a resistance.
In Physics, Force =Mass x Acceleration F=ma

In Physics applied to stock trading
Volume is Mass and price is acceleration
Volume x price indicates the Force/energy.

High demand volume with increasing price = high energy or force
High demand volume with a slowing price shows weakening of energy or force
Low demand volume even with a price appreciation is a weak force.

Imbalances are created constantly in demand and supply by the action of these forces.

In low-demand scenarios, supply is higher, price trend is downwards
In high demand, demand is higher, price trend is upwards.

Remember, force is required to sustain an uptrend and overcome supply resistance. Without that force, the trend is simply down except for an act of news provoke increase in demand. Negative News can reduce demand removing the needed force to maintain momentum. Again acting to create an imbalance.

Strong force /energy is required to break a resistance which in reality is a zone of significant supply or selling pressure.

Consolidation /accumulation are points of rest. Force is required also to move it out of this zone and if a significant news item creates an imbalance favouring down trend, so be it, a fall, and if demand volume increases, a rise. And if demand volume is low, the price will fall through.

It's all about demand versus supply. Monitoring volume with price is the key.

Simplified into the following
Is the price rising?
Is the price falling?
Is the price in a zone?
What are the Volumes, is it increasing or decreasing?
What's the force?
What's the imbalance, supply or demand imbalance?
Is the force sufficient to maintain the uptrend or overcome the resistance or price zone?

If Yes up
If No down



That's it in a nutshell.

My goodness, this is my longest post! My apologies for the long read.

ositadima1:
I want to introduce you to the world of technical analysis. Maybe you will end up liking it more than ofe akwu and rice with assorted meat.

ACCESSCORP did over 2.4 billion naira in trades. That means some people wanted it so badly that they collectively spent over 2.4 billion naira buying it (buy side), while some other people did not want it for various reasons such as profit-taking, rotating into another stock, dumping, impatience, selling at a loss, converting inheritance to cash, buying land, paying for a burial, funding a wedding, paying debt, and many other reasons you can think of (sell side).

What is interesting is that these two sides are independent of each other, and nobody was forced to buy, although some sellers may have had their hands forced for one reason or another.

Now, assuming these buyers came in today wanting to buy, but there were very few sellers, what do you think would happen to the price? Yes, they would start buying at higher prices. It is also true that many people would refuse to buy if they do not have a strong reason, but the buyers who are willing to buy will still push the price higher because the few sellers available will immediately sense the imbalance.

So my point is that a stock does not move because of news or fundamentals alone. Sometimes imbalance alone can move it. The funny thing is that most people do not even care what is moving it. What they want to see is motion, and once they see motion, they start buying until the sell side comes back with heavy supply.

The end.

I found your write-up interesting and engaging, however, I would like to add something I have applied over the years and found really helpful, in fact, I rate it 10 on a 0 to 10. The application is drawn from my knowledge of Physics and is extremely important in appreciating and quantifying demand and supply imbalance.

1. Demand Volume x price is the force or energy. News can act as a force or energy through the modification of demand

Newton's First Law States, An object at rest remains at rest, or if in motion, remains in motion at a constant velocity unless acted on by a net external force, that an object will not change its motion unless a force acts on it.

An asset in motion/rest, tends to stay in motion/rest unless acted upon by an external force ( news or institutionally significant volume)

For our stock trade purposes, motion could be up trend or down unless at rest

2. Force is required to overcome a resistance.
In Physics, Force =Mass x Acceleration F=ma

In Physics applied to stock trading
Volume is Mass and price is acceleration
Volume x price indicates the Force/energy.

High demand volume with increasing price = high energy or force
High demand volume with a slowing price shows weakening of energy or force
Low demand volume even with a price appreciation is a weak force.

Imbalances are created constantly in demand and supply by the action of these forces.

In low-demand scenarios, supply is higher, price trend is downwards
In high demand, demand is higher, price trend is upwards.

Remember, force is required to sustain an uptrend and overcome supply resistance. Without that force, the trend is simply down except for an act of news provoke increase in demand. Negative News can reduce demand removing the needed force to maintain momentum. Again acting to create an imbalance.

Strong force /energy is required to break a resistance which in reality is a zone of significant supply or selling pressure.

Consolidation /accumulation are points of rest. Force is required also to move it out of this zone and if a significant news item creates an imbalance favouring down trend, so be it, a fall, and if demand volume increases, a rise. And if demand volume is low, the price will fall through.

It's all about demand versus supply. Monitoring volume with price is the key.

Simplified into the following
Is the price rising?
Is the price falling?
Is the price in a zone?
What are the Volumes, is it increasing or decreasing?
What's the force?
What's the imbalance, supply or demand imbalance?
Is the force sufficient to maintain the uptrend or overcome the resistance or price zone?

If Yes up
If No down



That's it in a nutshell.

Xidget:
Post Veritaskap please

My apologies, Xidget.
Veritaskap eps isn’t just adding up. Will post after studying it closely.

FIRST BANK HOLD CO
Common Sense Target range

6x4x4=96
6x4x5=120

Range N96-N120

Based on Q1

pluto09:
I really appreciate you for your contribution on this forum.
I have two major concerns with access bank. One is the fair value and foreign exchange gain of about N220b ( over N1 trillion in full year 2025). I am still going through the report to see what exactly they are doing differently from others that they are still earning this huge amount from this line item.
Do you think this is sustainable?

Thank you too.
No, not likely. However, Q1 being the most recent for assessment, suggests they are still having issues (Q1 comprehensive dropped). But their last minute private placement suggest they are willing to address their issues. One may be right to be cautious and that's why Wema is currently valued above them. Let's see what Q2 would bring with it. Even if the Comprehensive of 126 bill is used (OS 54 bill) in the calculation, we would still end up with 45.667...(126/54 x4x5). I have a small holding in Access Bank(10,000 units) just for the sake of the registrars, which I would add to over time. One still needs to explain the huge volumes traded recently with price uptick. Someone knows something we don't, but then is that information good or bad? Monday will tell by the close of business. Access can pay at least N2.00 year end 2026 if nothing seriously negative happens.

Further clarification

Common sense is an entry and exit strategy
It's based on an average 4x and 5x multiples whichever is closer to common sense.
Aim is to buy well below that price. 20% below at least. The lower the better.
For companies with higher multiples, we apply their PEs.
We all invest in stocks for growth, appreciation, plus dividends. Stocks below their 4/5 multiple will appreciate to at least their 4/5x multiple over time as long as the fundamentals are right. It's good at detecting stocks that are undervalued so as to get a front row seat.

My earlier post may be useful. It's NOT the only tool but it has helped me recover most of my losses in 2008. I do apply other valuations and TA when necessary. I think this forum is great in meeting like minds and some who challenge one to do much better and yes, a few that help us laugh off the stress of day-to-day hardship.

Zeewirld:
3.69 is EPS,right?

What about the other figures.,please what does it represent/mean?

It's an assessment based on 5x multiple. Please kindly visit my earlier posts, to learn more about why I do this and how. A bit of history. I bought my first stock in 1997. Everything then was analogue. A few years later, I was heading to my first $mill ( exchange rate then was about N120 to $). Then came the crash and everything tumbled into the sea. Some stocks fell from 100 to 3 and a few even worse. I planned to make it to the board of Wema Bank but all that came down. I stayed away from stocks for many years like so many others ( one of my biggest mistakes). After it all, I asked myself pertinent questions. I came up by His Grace, that I just didn’t apply Common Sense. So I asked, what exactly made sense? The rest is history…..

Please always do your due diligence. Please remember it's a strategy to guide entry, once the target is hit, reevaluate to determine whether remaining still makes sense or not.

Sunrisepebble:
Use P/B for the banks. Not PE. GT is going to pay 14-15 div this year and you think it’ll be at 117?

Amen. But the market hasn't priced that in yet.

Common Sense Entry Strategy aims to guide below which it's safe to enter (the lower, the better). Then, once attained you need to reevaluate whether to hold for further appreciation or sell. In other words, the stocks will at least attain that threshold. It's not a valuation. Please take some time to read a few of my early posts if interested in learning how this evolved.

Once again, thank you for all you do on this platform. Your insight is invaluable.

BabsO2:
I think that profit attributed to equity holders is a sum of what common shareholders and what tier 1 bond holders are entitled to. I don’t think everything belongs to common shareholders. ETI that have similar tier 1 bonds separate these entitlements clearly. Please double check.

Good Saturday morning BabsO2, Wema is probably the only Bank spelling it out in their weighted average. You can do the maths for UBA and ETI and kindly reflect it here if it differs. I did the maths, but willing to take corrections if they differ. At least we are stimulating discussions to improve our stock picks. Iron sharpenth iron.

ojeysky:
No sunshade required, we are both saying the result is not bad so i don't think we disagree on that. I am also not saying it is a bad thing that CBN is mandating the banks to clean up, i am saying its not of good faith for access to claim they will pay knowing that CBN will not allow it. UBA didn't make declaration that they will pay dividend so i wasn't too surprised when they didn't. For access however, it was not about whether they will pay, it was how much they will pay. Anyway access remains my biggest holdings in banking sector just annoying how they play the game. It is well.

I can understand, ojesky. But don't despair. The figures look good from here on. Even if it drops, it will rise again to soar. An interim would definitely be a consolation. Hopefully they would take that route now that the books are clean.

eziokwunwoko:
aj8: Good afternoon sir.
What is Common Sense theory on Conhall Q1 2026 result

Please note from the Q 1 earnings report statement, that Consolidated Hallmark earnings are not entirely organic as 18.4 billion is ascribed to Net fair value gains. This will have to be deducted to give a fairer position. Also, insurance revenue fell in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025. Please ignore the EPS of 184.64 kobo. Without the above, the result should be way south. I hope the above will guide your further action.