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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 4:27pm On Mar 04

Gratefulme:
Mecure? What's the common sense entry price please?

@Gratefulme

My Common Sense Entry price is usually based on a “reasonable” average P/E multiple of the market.. Put in another way, it’s based on the average expectations of new players into the market. Those wishing to take front row seats before the big moves. How much minimum gain would satisfy them..20%, 25% ?….hence the PE of 4 and 5. However, for stocks that are pricey with high multiples, application of this average will be significantly at variance and heavily skewed against such companies. For Mecure a company having a PE of 46.95, it’s best to use the average of the sector which should run about 33 since they breathe the same oxygen ( Average of PEs of Mecure, M&B, Neimeth, Fidson..)

Based on the above
Mecure FY 2025 EPS = 1.62
Average PE of sector =33 ( Mecure =46.95 though )

Fair/ reasonable discount entry for me or for it to make common sense to me and backed by some mathematics, would be any price below 33 x 1.62 = 53.46

Please the emphasis is on...for me.

The picture will be a lot clearer after Q1 2026 results.

I do not own Mecure but would certainly consider buying a few units should the price drop below N53.00 and average down for every further 10% drop below my entry prices and hold for years.

Purely on Common Sense. Not an investment advice. Please do your due diligence backed by research.

8 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:49am On Feb 28

Sunrisepebble:
EPS for FY25 is N57, Q4 N13/14, how do you see this your EPS of N25 for Q1 and 100 for FY?

I said should it.….

BUA quadrupled
WAPCO Doubled
Dangote……

Just an assumption based on probability. At least we can agree that it has the potential of exceeding it's Q4 of N13/14 in Q12026? Is it also possible or completely impossible to double that is 2026? Of course not entirely impossible. What's the probability, 0.5.

And for BUA? Would a doubling in 2026 surprise anyone when it quadrupled earnings?

Assumption are of course on all things being equal. Purely maths.

Is a price of 1450 impossible based on probability? Nope, if it shows signs of attaining Eps Q1 2026 of or around N25. Let's wait till end of Q1 then we can review with deeper clarity.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:13am On Feb 28

megawealth01:
51 will be good on my bank balance

PE multiple is great at 14.5
BUA is 23.6
WAPCO is 12.2

Should it hit EPS YE 2026 of N100 or show Q1 2026 of around 25.00 then expect price in the neighborhood of N1450+80

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:56am On Feb 28

megawealth01:
If Alhaji wants to shock me he should give #50

If he keeps to historicals, and a dividend payout ratio of at least 80% =N 46.50 dividend approximately on projected earnings which 2026 has already been beaten in Q3 2025. And, if he pays out 90% =N51.00. The only worry is whether the huge expansion across Africa would affect the payout ratio or he would fund majorly through financial instruments to pay back with future earnings.

With recent news though, the shares should blast through 1000 easily.

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:39pm On Feb 27

chimex38:
DangCem..

https://leadership.ng/dangote-sinoma-sign-1bn-strategic-agreements-for-cement-projects-across-africa/

To strengthen its domestic market dominance, drive its export activities, optimise existing operational assets and enhance production efficiency and capacity expansion, Dangote Cement Plc has sealed $1 billion strategic agreements with Sinoma International Engineering for cement projects across Africa.

The president of Dangote Industries Limited, the parent firm of Dangote Cement, Mr Aliko Dangote, disclosed that the deal reinforces the company’s long-term growth strategy and aligns with the broader aspirations of the Dangote Group’s Vision 2030.

According to him, Sinoma will construct 12 new projects and expand others for the cement organisation across Africa, helping to achieve 80 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) production capacity by 2030, while supporting the group’s overarching target of generating $100 billion in revenue within the same period.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:43am On Feb 27

Valuation is not complete without considering future growth. Enter at the best possible price but don’t jump without first looking ahead. The weak who do not look ahead, will create opportunities for those who are farsighted. To understanding, add knowledge, and to apply all, is wisdom. The market is good at exposing human emotions and weaknesses..the “ohh I should have moments “. We are all here to learn, to improve, to be better, to make money but done in respect knowing that those here contribute one way or the other… if there are exceptions, then they must be few.
Remember also….

“There is a way which seemeth right unto a man….”

Have sharp ears, study, learn, ask questions when lost; the only stupid question is the one that wasn’t asked. Above all, do your research, your due diligence.

If you do not learn from the mistakes of others, then you will learn from yours.

6 Likes 2 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:09pm On Feb 24

crownprince2017:
Who is buying Access, what is T.A saying? Osita, aj8 make una help check the entry level.

Let's see if we can make sense of the dividend expectations. This is not a TA. Just trying to apply some mathematical sense.

My best assumption is that Zenith Bank attains N100 and pays N7 total dividend to justify the price and so hits about N107 eventually.

So,
Based on the first assumption
N100……N7.00 Dividend
N100/7 =14.286

Second assumption, Access, Wema, GTCO, etc have been properly valued by an efficient market but, markets are not always efficient.

Therefore,

If properly valued by an efficient market on purely dividend expectations against that of Zenith

I can further assume the following:

Less N14.286…………less N1.00
14.286.…N1.00 dividend expectation………?FCMB………14.286 + 1 =N15.286
28.572…N2.00 …………?Access/Wema…28.572 + 2 =
42.858…N3.00
57.144…N4.00
85.716…N6.00
100.000…N7.00……………?Zenith……100+7=107.00
114.288…N8.00
128.574…N9.00 dividend expectation………?GTCO………128.574+9 =N137.574
Etc…

Once dividends start turning in, the stocks will be repriced according to expectations… those that fall short will be punished and those that meet up could be rewarded with further price appreciation.

In the same vein, if Access surprises with a N3.00 grin

Then expect the price to rally to about N43.00 +/-3.00

All things being equal QED.

This is purely a prefrontal mental discourse. It is not an investment advice. Please be further guided by due diligence.

11 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:54am On Feb 24*

Ladygracy:
I have both stocks o abi make I jump out

“On the nature of Tantalizers Plc breach, the NGX said the company engaged in insider dealing in shares during closed period “a breach of the provisions of Rule 17:18: Period of Closure.”

My take…

A look at their last 2 reported insider trades showed :
1. No notice of closure was issued before the consideration/release of Q4 2025
2. Q4 2026 was released to Ngx and by extension to the public on the 30th January, 2026
3. Two insiders sold on or before 20th January, 2026 prior to the report being made public.

NPFMB
IS SIMILAR….
1. Release of Q4 2025 to NGX and by extension to the public was on the 29th January
2. An insider transaction occurred during the closed period 5th, 6th and 27th January 2026 but disclosed on the 13th of February 2026

You can monitor future infractions if they ever occur and sell if it does for fear of consequences.

https://businessday.ng/markets/article/insider-dealing-ngx-cautions-sterling-holdco-mutual-benefits-austin-laz/

Sterling bank, Mutual Benefits Assurance and Austin Laz have similar infractions and warnings.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:52pm On Feb 23

A new entrant…

AIICO

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:03am On Feb 23

Smattrader:
I thought I should give this a try. But a few questions ;
* What chart do you apply when looking out for the 10% day gain.
* How do you identify your entry and exit point, time or set the time?
What stockbroker that can link you with the NGX etrader.
Regards.
Thanks.

@Smarttrader.. huh

You may need to search the major stockbrokers in Nigeria. Give them a call to ascertain that they are linked to the real-time trading platform. You could equally search through previous posts here on Nairaland with keywords like stockbroker, real-time, etc. Please do not try until you have understood what it's all about. I only assign, a tiny fraction of my investment to this. 1 million x 10 trades. It's really what some have termed here jijo but with a 20/20 vision, not blindly. It's also terrific in detecting some stocks moving out of consolidation. And, useful for those who may not have all the technical acumen or too busy with profession to analyze stocks in clear detail..like me

. Volumes hardly lie.

I would be happy to assist after you have gone through the basics.

5 Likes 2 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:31am On Feb 23

Sunrisepebble:
A stocks price is based off the present value of it’s future cash flow. I’m buying because I see the EPS growing at end of FY26, not because of FY25 result

Thank you sir. I responded in straight-after-church mode. Your comment is noted and greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:23pm On Feb 22

Sunrisepebble:
I don’t have better use for the cash I’m sitting on. So will add to it, Zenith and Transcorp tomorow

For Transcorp, I would want to see an uptick in the volumes along with the price. PE is 8.65 so an EPS of N6.00 has been priced in. Note….Tomorrow is BM. You may wish to wait. Not unless privileged to insider information. Resistance @53.50 and Support @ 47.15. Insiders haven't shown interest for a while too.

7 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:58pm On Feb 19

jckgroup1:
Greetings Common Sense Boss,

This Common sense Target for VeritasKap; is it for Q1 or H1 target? Kindly clarify. I know you do update with latest result.

Gracias.

@jckgroup1

Though insurance penny stock prices are a bit depressed but give it into H1 2026 weeks after Q1 release. Once the Q1 result validates the momentum seen at FY 2025, it should soar to the target. It's a good entry as it stands well below the above target, averaging down even if it drops. MBenefit is a good pointer to what could happen next with VeritasKap.

Buy now, watch volumes! Any day it spikes 10% dive deeper.

Do your due diligence as always.

5 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 3:37pm On Feb 19

chimex38:
https://ngxgroup.com/herere-11-top-performing-etfs-driving-investor-returns

One may not know all the underlying companies they invest your money in and at what ratio or amount.

🏃🏃🏃🏃🏃🏃🏃 Just watch the NAV of the ETF. Never touch with even a long spoon anything 20% above that. Crazy things happen there. Buy only after they rebalance their portfolio and sell about February when prices peak. Never never buy at peaks you'd be sorry. The market is still very inefficient. Gains can be astronomical and losses brutal. I have done a couple.

7 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 3:25pm On Feb 19

ojesymsym:
This requires a subscription with ngx right?

Yes. Just talk to your stockbroker. If your stockbroker is not linked, find one who is. First rule of business, Be in direct control.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:41pm On Feb 19

Valthegreat:
I believe if offers starts pushing out massively perhaps around Circa #5 some of the current bidders may become jittery of becoming bag holders including me. So the chase is not expected to be sustainable at higher highs.

Unless the company comes up with further positive clarification and forecasts around the N5 junction to drive it further. A few pictures would suffice to range it towards 10 but real maths is needed beyond that. It's all sentiments now, nothing concrete.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:16pm On Feb 19

ogoo4real:
Morgan Capital still showing 208m bids. Is that correct

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:13pm On Feb 19

PuristForest:
Japaul will be like 3.75 - 3.4 and 4.75 (possible B top) targets.....but after that may still return to 3.3 region........Enjoy

Japaul may not tarry till 16-20, especially if the company can give further clarification. Just follow the volume for now. Over 200 million all bidding the max? I can't see it stopping soon. I was able to position at 2.51 when the volume showed multiple spikes and demand outweighed supply by miles. At that time the news wasn't out yet but just peaks in interest in the stock on the real-time platform.

12 Likes 2 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 2:00pm On Feb 19

aj8:
On NGX. The Nigerian real-time trading platform. Your stockbroker would link you up.
Like so below. See the attachment.

You could have caught Mbenefit the new entrant today well before the full bid. Same for Japaul and Tantalizer a few days before.

MTN is warming up.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 1:59pm On Feb 19

ojesymsym:
What eTrader works best for this? Is Yahoo finance real time or may investing? Make I see weda I fit follow you try am today

On NGX. The Nigerian real-time trading platform. Your stockbroker would link you up.
Like so below. See the attachment.

You could have caught Mbenefit the new entrant today well before the full bid. Same for Japaul and Tantalizer a few days before.

2 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:51am On Feb 18

The day's market on the NGX is characterized in the first 15 minutes of trade. What I do. I open my “Trades” on the eTrader platform and wait till 10.15 am, I sort the data according to volume highest to lowest. This would show stocks that are about to shoot up and those being dumped, I just pay attention to only the first page after sorting accordingto volume highest to lowest, I don't scroll down. On this first page, I take note of new entrant stocks, stocks that have been docile or consolidating for a while that..
1. have done 10% green but demand far more than supply….buying. I join the queue provided cash is available.
2. show 10% green with huge supply more than demand..dumped/ profit taking corrections. Especially if the price drops as the market progresses. I walk away or take profit if I wish to

News changes the course of trades. The information once known to the privileged few, the stock will show up as huge abnormally large multiple volume interests. The first 15 minutes help to detect that. Subsequently, I update “Trades” on the platform as sorted every 15 minutes and note new entrants to consider taking a position on.

It's interesting how often this works. Much later the news emerges…e.g Tantalizer and Japaul…NB (profit taking a day before results publication )

A strategy I thought I should share. Do not commit huge funds till you are okay with it.

29 Likes 7 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 8:02am On Feb 18

deathwing:
What is a common sense target price for MTN, Custodian, GTB, and TIP by Dec 2026 (assuming all goes well)?

Let's wait for Q1/2026. The market generally/historically heads down till then with minor ticks up or down for dividends. Custodian may have something brewing for the MD to have purchased huge amounts at year-end end even though above price based on its PE multiple and Q1 2026 earnings forecast, will become clearer in 2026. Companies where Mds make huge purchases, do make well over 150 % over the average purchase price within a 365-day cycle (that's open to research). My price target for Custodian is 80. I am not even sure how it would get there but driven by the Common Sense that if the MD bought into it then it's good enough; at least better than other investment options open to him - 20% to 30% approximately / inflation figures.

6 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 6:31am On Feb 17

Exercise caution from this point on…better safe than sorry.

5 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:45pm On Feb 16

Agbalowomeri:
Obviously this is a "bull fallacy" na. You see what Currentprice called his own "enterprise value". As long as all prices are rising, all our tools are working. Make we make the money o jare

Don't be surprised to see DANGSUGAR @200. Would this logic still explain it?

That's why I like you. This logic is only based on probability of hitting an average PE of 4-5. Beyond that we can fall back to the company's PE multiple.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:19pm On Feb 16

aj8:
Dangote Sugar Refinery :
Common Sense Target N71.2 - N89.00
Calculation based on Qtr 3 2025 earnings
OS 12,146,878,241.00
Earnings in Qrt N13.682 bill
EPS Qrt 1.13 from negative 3.32

Calculation:
(1.13+3.32) x4 x4 to range (1.13 +3.32) x4 x5
= 71.2 -89.00 Range

Estimate 6 months.

Current price N55.60
Upside 28%-60% within Range.

Caution: Do your research and due diligence.

Agbalowomeri:
I still think this your method doesn't work when you try to use number line. It does not apply common sense. I can't fathom how an expected FY EPS of less than N2 would be projected to any price more than N20. That is a PE of 10. At 80 it will be a PE of 40. That cannot make sense to me.

Still doesn't make sense? That's okay.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 12:10pm On Feb 16

aj8:
Dangote Sugar Refinery :
Common Sense Target N71.2 - N89.00
Calculation based on Qtr 3 2025 earnings
OS 12,146,878,241.00
Earnings in Qrt N13.682 bill
EPS Qrt 1.13 from negative 3.32

Calculation:
(1.13+3.32) x4 x4 to range (1.13 +3.32) x4 x5
= 71.2 -89.00 Range

Estimate 6 months.

Current price N55.60
Upside 28%-60% within Range.

Caution: Do your research and due diligence.

Touched 88.00 today, well within the 6 months.

11 Likes 2 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:38am On Feb 14

crownprince2017:
I seriously believed agba is such a wonderful being, he never showed even for once being offended, that speaks volume of who he is in real life. I respect you so much for that.
He is a definition of humility he never takes any insult seriously. instead, he jokes it out of the person insulting him.

I seriously believed agba is very invested in this market, he just enjoys the cruise here.

Agba the baba for the girls, where do you see the market from here and what effect do you think 2027 election brings to the market.

There is an Agba in every forum/platform. Thank God for them. Like the skilful hand, they mix everything to make it deliciously funny yet serious. 🫡👊👍

5 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 11:46pm On Feb 13

aj8:
Common Sense Target for NB is N74.08-89.04.

Using H1
(8.28+2.85) x 2 x4 =89.04

Using Q2
(1.42+3.21) x4 x 4 = 74.08

Range = 74.08-89.04

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/46016_NIGERIAN_BREWERIES_PLC.-EARNINGS_RELEASE_FULL_YEAR_2025_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_FEBRUARY_2026.pdf

Nigerian Breweries made significant price appreciation within the above estimate. Expect some drop in price on the FY
Common Sense value still good for (3.19 + 12.07) x 5 = 76.30

I don’t see it dropping below (3.19+12.07) x 4 = 61.04

Range adjusted to 61.04 -76.30

Will load more if it approaches 61 though I doubt it would drop to 61 based on the current momentum.

Likely to aim for interim dividend in 2026 which could lift it into 90s.

7 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:46am On Feb 12

Wema bank market structure

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:27pm On Feb 11

chimex38:
He trades daily.
E.g 5m @3%= 150000
another 4m @ 5%=12000
Another 1m @ 9%= 90,000.
If you keep at this daily, you may also encounter losses or traps in some stocks on the index.
But net gain by month-end should far exceed the losses and brokerage fees if you are quite good at it like he does.

you could also leave your losses(traps) as paper loss until it breaks even or bull surfaces.(essentially making 100% gains).

Liquidity and right stocks picks is the issue in a bear market, but if you keep your quantities low and have knowledge of the stocks in question, you can reduce the rate you get trapped.(skill involved).

In a bull market as we have currently, liquidity isn't much an issue. One could even trade 10million luckily @8-10%=800k- 1million
(bullish and very liquid stocks).

Sounds like…..

“Goes fishing Monday to Friday. Like 10 lines all in the stream. Whatever tugs at the line he hauls in. Pulls in all the lines at the close of the day and goes home to prepare for the next day”

The lines could be e.g 10 million, 1 million, 100,000, or anything. Requires a lot of discipline to pull all the lines in at the end of the day. Not a strategy for just anyone. Luckily on NGX no loss ( line) can exceed 10%. Maybe awesomeJ would throw more light on his strategy. Main issue...how to pick the daily winners.

9 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 10:42am On Feb 10

emmanuelewumi:
I said it is not an academic exercise if the aim is to build a long term sustainable wealth and value through business or investment

Of course, Pa Emma is right. With age, you will see the wisdom in these words. To ignore this is to gamble. Because some embrace such, the word gambler has been reserved for them. Sometimes you win big and if you lose, you lose big too. No fund manager would dare gamble. The maths must add up or else it's a no-deal. Always better safe than sorry.

7 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by aj8(m): 9:06pm On Feb 06

chimex38:
it's sarcasm..
See his previous post below on January 18 in response to NAHCOs result and as a company.

“An eighty year old lady may not look so great in high-heeled shoes”

1 Like

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