₦airaland Forum

Where do you think UBA will find her strong support ( ref chart below) and why?
However, on our Common sense estimation, it still has value at 3.1x4 x4  = 49.6 ( based on Q1 2026) being that the present scenario has probably already been priced in.

Buying anywhere below the 20 % below that value would be great

That’s below 49.60 x 80% = 39.68

I will gladly load UBA at N36.00-39.68, averaging down if necessary. However, if Wema Bank's Q1 2026 is fantastic, it will help UBA as it will be difficult to price Wema Bank above UBA. Wema will rise and take UBA with it. Can Wema turn in an EPS of 3.1 for Q1 2026? Let’s wait and see. Wema’s 4th quarter of 2025 ( from FY UFS) suggests that it is possible should it maintain that same momentum, to double earnings.

Sunrisepebble:
The PE firm bought into Betaglass I think at N414. I’m picking at N450, less than 10% premium. They will definitely be looking to add more value. They are also investing in capacity expansion and looking at export. So I think the long term it’s a good one. The story is very similar to WAPCO’s imo. Transcorp I’ve answered in another reply. I’d rather use the capital elsewhere

FYI: https://businessday.ng/companies/article/exclusive-beta-glass-to-invest-e17-5m-in-nigerias-business-expansion-push/?amp

Thank you for your attention, sir. Appreciated.

Well, you can always average down if it falls lower. I sold my Betaglass @498.50 except for 1 unit I am holding to keep the registrar happy. I would like to see their Q1 results before I decide whether to re-enter or not.

Best wishes sir.

4willer:
Hello Fam,

I have often been issues with using the dividend page with the link docuhub3.nibss-plc.com.ng/edmms/self-service

Am I using the wrong link, or has it ceased to work?

Thank you.

Keep clicking submit repeatedly till it accepts. You can check my earlier post on this issue.

Sunrisepebble:
Portfolio update.
I’ve exited all my Transcorp.
Added Betaglass
Target prices for GT, MTN, Seplat, WAPCO and Zenith all exceeded, still think there’s upside in all

NFA/DYOR

@Sunrisepebble, kindly permit my curiosity. Why did you change your mind on Transcorp? I thought you were in for the long term. Please if I may bother you slightly more, why Betaglass; at the current price?

Care4:
ETF has gained attention lately. Just know it's more of pump and dump for now. See that charts.
And liquidity issues as well.

Yes, you are quite right. Liquidity-induced craziness (volatility) is the “game”. Requires patience, familiarity, and knowledge. No one that understands ETFs in the Nigerian market will touch Stanbic IBTC ETF 30, NewGold ETF, and quite a few others at their current prices.

The trick is to be guided by their NAV with respect to what the ETF tracks and also their historicals. Many get burnt not knowing this. Buy close to their NAV. Never buy an ETF without first checking its latest NAV. Prices will always be at their highest in January /February and rotate back towards their NAV. Also note the dates the funds are rebalanced (sometimes twice a year) by the fund managers. Very important.

emmanuelewumi:
It depends on the amount he needed.


Can he get N10 million and above using his credit card?

My limit is $7000 (Naira equivalent/Dollar). I guess some could give more but it would probably depend on the bank's assessment of one's creditworthiness.

Teenaira:
Which broker has a better rate and what is their commission like ?

Another option

Any Credit card offering less than 3% per month on outstanding balance after agreed monthly percentage settlement to avoid penalty.

Don't try this unless you are conversant with ETFs on NGX. You must familiarize yourself with the ETF’s NAV before you buy. Buy only if the price makes sense, close to NAV. Yes, if it makes Common Sense. It’s easier to run this on ETFs because of their volatility.

Happy Easter 🎁🎁📦🎁 to you and your family. Let His Light shine.

Remember to never sell all your shares, leave at least 1-10 units for the Registrars to keep you on their register for ease of payments. That way, you won't need to fill out a new mandate form.

KarlTom:
And there was no disclosure on the sale since 31 December 2025.

That's very bad signal (or PR)...

Insider trades without disclosure? Let’s see what NGX will make of these multiple infractions. Ngx had earlier issued warnings to some companies on similar infractions not long ago. Very bad indeed.

yMcy56:
They're pending NAHCO from moving till after they're done with GT 😊
NAHCO ought to resume on full bid..

Meanwhile, GTCO resumed @123.90....
But profit takers are at work....
They may still likely move GT to 150...

GTCO dragging ZENITH along....
ZEE @104 as at now......Up with N8

* NEWGOLD @202,000 per Ounce....

Each security represents approximately 1/100th of an ounce. I can't understand why anyone would pay N202,000 for 1/100th of an ounce of gold.

The following conversions are based on the mid-market exchange rates as of April 1, 2026. Please note that these figures represent the estimated Naira value for one share of the NewGold ETF on each respective exchange:…Google AI


South Africa (JSE): ₦59,736.21
Calculation: ZAR 725.70 × 82.315 ZAR/NGN.

Nigeria (NGX): ₦186,000.20
This is the direct local price; it is currently trading at a significant premium compared to other regional listings.

Kenya (NSE): ₦56,454.67
Calculation: 5,315.66 KES × 10.620 KES/NGN.

Botswana (BSE): ₦65,223.15
Calculation: 641.81 BWP × 101.624 BWP/NGN.

Mauritius (SEM): ₦59,087.46
Calculation: 2,000.00 MUR × 29.544 MUR/NGN.

awesomeJ:
Good evening sir.

1. Yes sir. N831m sales and N815m purchases (reinvestment for the purpose of tax 😁) for total N1.65bn trades

2. The transactions fees are set to a total of 2.3% round trip. Buy side is about 0.9175% statutorily, sell is 1.2175% for a total of 2.135%, this 2.135% is what I add to whatever my entry price is to get my BEP. I add another 0.165% to cover the cost of X-Alert as well as the little markup on the selling prices. (I added an asterisk with a corresponding footnote on that line in the cost break down) I spoke about how getting an exact percentage can be tough especially with X-Alert. So I use 2.3% for now. I might refine the calculation whenever I'm in the mood to code again, but for now 2.3% works just fine.

1. Spot are gains that I made from positions that I entered and exited within the reporting period. If it's a weekly report for instance, my spot gains are gains I made from positions I opened that week and exited that same week. It's my favorite

2. Realized gains are from positions I exited in the review period, but opened prior to that period

3. Unrealized gains (paper profit) are gains from positions I opened in the period but am yet to exit. They're my least favorite.


In Q4'25, I had negative realized gains, cos I had to exit some positions at a loss in November.


I'm glad you're paying attention to my small report.

I hope I was able to provide the answers you wanted.

Yes, Thank you. Simply brilliant. 👍

awesomeJ:
Guys, I have some preliminary Q1 numbers for my trading, they're pretty compared to last quarter.

N1.65bn with 2.16% net margins traded compared to N669m at 1.32

the quarter still does have 2 more days sha, but i just finished vibe coding this income statement feature so I'm happy to share.

Full quarter volume will be above N1.7b with earnings likely to top N37m

I paid N1.3m for just stamp duties alone

AwesomeJ, thanks for sharing. I commend your investment courage.
Would you most kindly please with respect to your shared statement, kindly clarify the following:

1. Is your referenced sales revenue the same as the sum of stocks that were “sales” made from the total transactions of 1.65 billion and the rest purchases?
2. Were the transaction fees the same in sales as in purchases?
3. Please explain the terms spot P & L, unrealized, and realized P&L

Can I assume that profits were recognized only on attaining on average, the quoted margins above transaction fees?

I would appreciate your further feedback. Thank you for your attention, sir.

Oftentimes, we approach doctors to carry out medical checks even when no obvious symptoms or signs exist. The doctor assesses, examines, investigates which may include though not limited to laboratory tests, scans, X-rays, invasives, or non-invasive probes for dis-ease, the absence of ease, we call disease.
Likewise, every company's financial statement /balance sheet must be checked thoroughly for health, growth/expansion, or dis-ease (disease), the absence of ease; scanned, x-rayed, for signs of poor financial health. Pa Emma and quite a few others, have often and succinctly referenced this in many previous posts, drawing from their years of experience through boom, gloom, and doom. These are skills we must all acquire, searching for signs of fundamental strength or hidden weaknesses. When the maths do not support the talk, caution must be exercised. Reevaluation can detect storms ahead we can either weather through or seek shelter till its passed.

By the way, the World Glaucoma Week (8th-14th March, 2026) [/b]has just ended. Ninety-four percent (94%) of the over 4 percent of the world’s population aged 40 years and above, who have glaucoma, do not know they have glaucoma. So, see an eye doctor to check your eyes and rule out this [b]dreadful cause of irreversible blindness. Happy trading.

Options in this season of “Regret to sell or hold” for dividend-paying stocks.

1. Hold to qualify for dividends then reappraise to hold further to Q1 or sell after qualifying for dividends. If you choose to sell, sell the much units to take profits off the table.

Note: Difficulties could be encountered in demand for the stock after markdown forcing one to abandon plans as the price continues to fall on offers far above bids. E.g a stock paying a dividend of 10% may drop to as much as 20% post ex-dividend trading on low demand making exit impossible at a good price.

[CP-Your estimate Buy back Price] x number of entire units held at qualification
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… = number of units to sell
CP

Buy back when the stock falls to the estimated reentry price.

And what if it doesn’t fall to that price? Just walk away or keep waiting till it does or plough funds to wherever else ( any other stock) that hits a good entry price determined by whatever strategy/valuation metrics.

Be reasonable with the target reentry/entry price. Use stock charting, point of strong support, or Fibonacci with historical analysis.

Please note that CP will be marked down after qualifying. Adjusted for the dividend and/or scrip issued. Prior research is crucial to determine the most reasonable re-entry price.

2. Selling a few days before ex dividend mark down. I ask myself. “ Is this stock more likely to lose 25% before it gains 25% weeks or months post ex dividend ?” If No I would not sell.
If yes I could consider selling a day or two before qualification. When demand is still high. Again I apply the above formula likewise and research where the strong supports lie, etc.

There is always the risk that you may never get back in below your exit price, thereby surrendering a good stock. But, these are not really losses just opportunities lost. Remember, you still walk away with a profit, selling only a portion of your holding.

emmanuelewumi:
I have Zenith, GTB, Stanbic IBTC and UBA.



Access Bank will definitely need to raise additional capital after the stress test

I don't think so. Access Bank has the best asset quality with an NPL Ratio of 2.76%, NPL Coverage Ratio of 100%, and a CAR of 20%. All the current loans are captured within the coverage ratio.

I would rather worry about ETI, UBA, Stanbic, Fidelity, and FCMB.

Sorry

https://docuhub3.nibss-plc.com.ng/edmms/self-service


Anyone getting a Bvn error code should just keep hitting submit till it accepts and takes you to the upload of documents page.

A few repeat clicks solve the problem.

Itzlinda:
I'll buy at 60 too

Best below 52.90


15.86-5.28=10.58
10.58 x5 =52.90

Below 52.90 seems good if it gets there.

eziokwunwoko:
@Aj8 : Please Sir, explain the calculation on VeritasKap

VeritasKap
Strengths
1. Has a new CEO/MD, a no-nonsense career chief who understands the sector
2. The 2025 statement is looking good with a lot more prudent management and an increase in the investment portfolio. The negative earnings have turned green
3. Earnings 2025 EPS is 0.93 but I consider it even more remarkable coming from a negative 0.57. In other words a move of 0.57 +0.93 =1.50. Compared well to that of Mutual Benefit Assurance
4. Q4 earnings stand alone is 0.42 profit at Q4 was 2,925,972,000 compared to the 2025 UF year of 6,459,407,000 a remarkable surge when compared
5. Common sense strategy is based on an average PE range of 4 and 5 and when the multiples are far outstretched, on the sector’s average PE multiple or the company's PE multiple whichever is lower. Earnings must however be organic or with a high probability of repeat occurrence
6. Veritaskap’s calculations were based on the Q4 earnings and the strength of the new management against the background of Insurance sector reforms.


You may wish to refer to some of my past posts for deeper insight.

Let's see what the Q1 2026 results would come up as: then we can recalculate and restrategize.

I own VeritasKap. But kindly do your research before you jump in.

Xidget:
@Aj8, Abeg,is there any common sense stocks that is still within buying range

VeritasKap

megawealth01:
And what if it goes below 20 naira?

The last paragraph….


Otherwise, Ignore this response if just sarcasm

Gratefulme:
Mecure? What's the common sense entry price please?

@Gratefulme

My Common Sense Entry price is usually based on a “reasonable” average P/E multiple of the market.. Put in another way, it’s based on the average expectations of new players into the market. Those wishing to take front row seats before the big moves. How much minimum gain would satisfy them..20%, 25% ?….hence the PE of 4 and 5. However, for stocks that are pricey with high multiples, application of this average will be significantly at variance and heavily skewed against such companies. For Mecure a company having a PE of 46.95, it’s best to use the average of the sector which should run about 33 since they breathe the same oxygen ( Average of PEs of Mecure, M&B, Neimeth, Fidson..)

Based on the above
Mecure FY 2025 EPS = 1.62
Average PE of sector =33 ( Mecure =46.95 though )

Fair/ reasonable discount entry for me or for it to make common sense to me and backed by some mathematics, would be any price below 33 x 1.62 = 53.46

Please the emphasis is on...for me.


The picture will be a lot clearer after Q1 2026 results.


I do not own Mecure but would certainly consider buying a few units should the price drop below N53.00 and average down for every further 10% drop below my entry prices and hold for years.

Purely on Common Sense. Not an investment advice. Please do your due diligence backed by research.

Sunrisepebble:
EPS for FY25 is N57, Q4 N13/14, how do you see this your EPS of N25 for Q1 and 100 for FY?

I said should it.….

BUA quadrupled
WAPCO Doubled
Dangote……

Just an assumption based on probability. At least we can agree that it has the potential of exceeding it's Q4 of N13/14 in Q12026? Is it also possible or completely impossible to double that is 2026? Of course not entirely impossible. What's the probability, 0.5.

And for BUA? Would a doubling in 2026 surprise anyone when it quadrupled earnings?

Assumption are of course on all things being equal. Purely maths.

Is a price of 1450 impossible based on probability? Nope, if it shows signs of attaining Eps Q1 2026 of or around N25. Let's wait till end of Q1 then we can review with deeper clarity.

megawealth01:
51 will be good on my bank balance

PE multiple is great at 14.5
BUA is 23.6
WAPCO is 12.2

Should it hit EPS YE 2026 of N100 or show Q1 2026 of around 25.00 then expect price in the neighborhood of N1450+80

megawealth01:
If Alhaji wants to shock me he should give #50

If he keeps to historicals, and a dividend payout ratio of at least 80% =N 46.50 dividend approximately on projected earnings which 2026 has already been beaten in Q3 2025. And, if he pays out 90% =N51.00. The only worry is whether the huge expansion across Africa would affect the payout ratio or he would fund majorly through financial instruments to pay back with future earnings.

With recent news though, the shares should blast through 1000 easily.

chimex38:
DangCem..

https://leadership.ng/dangote-sinoma-sign-1bn-strategic-agreements-for-cement-projects-across-africa/

To strengthen its domestic market dominance, drive its export activities, optimise existing operational assets and enhance production efficiency and capacity expansion, Dangote Cement Plc has sealed $1 billion strategic agreements with Sinoma International Engineering for cement projects across Africa.

The president of Dangote Industries Limited, the parent firm of Dangote Cement, Mr Aliko Dangote, disclosed that the deal reinforces the company’s long-term growth strategy and aligns with the broader aspirations of the Dangote Group’s Vision 2030.


According to him, Sinoma will construct 12 new projects and expand others for the cement organisation across Africa, helping to achieve 80 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) production capacity by 2030, while supporting the group’s overarching target of generating $100 billion in revenue within the same period.

Valuation is not complete without considering future growth. Enter at the best possible price but don’t jump without first looking ahead. The weak who do not look ahead, will create opportunities for those who are farsighted. To understanding, add knowledge, and to apply all, is wisdom. The market is good at exposing human emotions and weaknesses..the “ohh I should have moments “. We are all here to learn, to improve, to be better, to make money but done in respect knowing that those here contribute one way or the other… if there are exceptions, then they must be few.
Remember also….

“There is a way which seemeth right unto a man….”

Have sharp ears, study, learn, ask questions when lost; the only stupid question is the one that wasn’t asked. Above all, do your research, your due diligence.

If you do not learn from the mistakes of others, then you will learn from yours.

crownprince2017:
Who is buying Access, what is T.A saying? Osita, aj8 make una help check the entry level.

Let's see if we can make sense of the dividend expectations. This is not a TA. Just trying to apply some mathematical sense.

My best assumption is that Zenith Bank attains N100 and pays N7 total dividend to justify the price and so hits about N107 eventually.

So,
Based on the first assumption
N100……N7.00 Dividend
N100/7 =14.286

Second assumption, Access, Wema, GTCO, etc have been properly valued by an efficient market but, markets are not always efficient.

Therefore,

If properly valued by an efficient market on purely dividend expectations against that of Zenith

I can further assume the following:



Less N14.286…………less N1.00
14.286.…N1.00 dividend expectation………?FCMB………14.286 + 1 =N15.286
28.572…N2.00 …………?Access/Wema…28.572 + 2 =
42.858…N3.00
57.144…N4.00
85.716…N6.00
100.000…N7.00……………?Zenith……100+7=107.00
114.288…N8.00
128.574…N9.00 dividend expectation………?GTCO………128.574+9 =N137.574
Etc…

Once dividends start turning in, the stocks will be repriced according to expectations… those that fall short will be punished and those that meet up could be rewarded with further price appreciation.

In the same vein, if Access surprises with a N3.00 Then expect the price to rally to about N43.00 +/-3.00

All things being equal QED.


This is purely a prefrontal mental discourse. It is not an investment advice. Please be further guided by due diligence.

Ladygracy:
I have both stocks o abi make I jump out

“On the nature of Tantalizers Plc breach, the NGX said the company engaged in insider dealing in shares during closed period “a breach of the provisions of Rule 17:18: Period of Closure.”

My take…

A look at their last 2 reported insider trades showed :
1. No notice of closure was issued before the consideration/release of Q4 2025
2. Q4 2026 was released to Ngx and by extension to the public on the 30th January, 2026
3. Two insiders sold on or before 20th January, 2026 prior to the report being made public.


NPFMB
IS SIMILAR….
1. Release of Q4 2025 to NGX and by extension to the public was on the 29th January
2. An insider transaction occurred during the closed period 5th, 6th and 27th January 2026 but disclosed on the 13th of February 2026


You can monitor future infractions if they ever occur and sell if it does for fear of consequences.


https://businessday.ng/markets/article/insider-dealing-ngx-cautions-sterling-holdco-mutual-benefits-austin-laz/



Sterling bank, Mutual Benefits Assurance and Austin Laz have similar infractions and warnings.

A new entrant…


AIICO

Smattrader:
I thought I should give this a try. But a few questions ;
* What chart do you apply when looking out for the 10% day gain.
* How do you identify your entry and exit point, time or set the time?
What stockbroker that can link you with the NGX etrader.
Regards.
Thanks.

@Smarttrader.. You may need to search the major stockbrokers in Nigeria. Give them a call to ascertain that they are linked to the real-time trading platform. You could equally search through previous posts here on Nairaland with keywords like stockbroker, real-time, etc. Please do not try until you have understood what it's all about. I only assign, a tiny fraction of my investment to this. 1 million x 10 trades. It's really what some have termed here jijo but with a 20/20 vision, not blindly. It's also terrific in detecting some stocks moving out of consolidation. And, useful for those who may not have all the technical acumen or too busy with profession to analyze stocks in clear detail..like me . Volumes hardly lie.

I would be happy to assist after you have gone through the basics.

Sunrisepebble:
A stocks price is based off the present value of it’s future cash flow. I’m buying because I see the EPS growing at end of FY26, not because of FY25 result

Thank you sir. I responded in straight-after-church mode. Your comment is noted and greatly appreciated. Thank you.